I would think a goal this year is to make the tournament, and that’s about 20 wins. Some projections have us between 14-18.
Our first three games are West Georgia, North Florida, and Texas Southern. We better be comfortably 3-0 at that point. I could see a lot of time for the bigs in those three games just to take advantage of physical mismatches.
Then there’s UGA and Cincinnati. Those are crucial for a bid. Both were ranked ahead of us last year, but I don’t know how good they are this year. Last year, we got smacked in the paint, so I would expect something out of the bigs this season, in those games. Unless Ndongo can own the paint, I think we have to use our centers. If I’m wrong, I’d like to hear why.
Then, we mix in four more games that should be gimmes in with the rest. There are basically seven gimmes for the year.
We also need to do well against Northwestern and Oklahoma. I count 19 conference games, not including the conference tournament.
Winning all the gimmes gives us seven wins. If we go just under 50% in conference, that’s nine more wins, which gets us to seventeen. We have four tough out of conference games against UGA, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and Northwestern, and we’d need to win half to get to nineteen. That, plus a win in the conference tournament should have us just on the right side of the bubble, and that’s a strong season.
I think that requires some games that are guard-heavy, and some where we use our front court, and some blends. We recruited centers for a reason.