2023-2024 ROSTER???

ESPNjacket

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Shooting 80% of FTs as a team is extraordinarily rare. If there are more than 3 Division 1 teams who do so any given year it is a remarkable year. 70% has been the norm for 50+ years. It is a myth FT shooting is worse now than long ago.

It was slightly higher than the norm this year at 71.7%. The idea that they used to shoot them better in my day is a much repeated myth for sure.

The other thing with FT% is that it isn't well correlated with winning games.
 

78pike

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It was slightly higher than the norm this year at 71.7%. The idea that they used to shoot them better in my day is a much repeated myth for sure.

The other thing with FT% is that it isn't well correlated with winning games.
Maybe the correlation to winning improves if you just look at the FT% in the last two minutes as compared to the whole game.
 

Northeast Stinger

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Shooting 80% of FTs as a team is extraordinarily rare. If there are more than 3 Division 1 teams who do so any given year it is a remarkable year. 70% has been the norm for 50+ years. It is a myth FT shooting is worse now than long ago.
Not sure how the idea of a team shooting 80% became part of this discussion. My original comment was about an individual player who was not contributing much on the court and who also was also shooting fairly poorly from the line. I still think if you have a player who can hit 80% or above it helps the team. Assuming the other team will attempt to foul your least successful free throw shooter it would help if they are contributing in other ways, controlling the rim, assists, blocks and steals or hitting an occasional 3 pointer.
 

Northeast Stinger

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Root4GT

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Some of these team averages are amazingly good. I suspect that proves my point that having a regular player hitting in the 60s is kind of bad. That would bring the team average down quite a bit.
60% is below average by about 1 of every 10 FTs. If Moore makes 3 more FTs out of his 93 attempts he is above the National average. You said we used to think anything below 80% was inferior. That is simply false unless you thought the vast majority of NCAA BB players were inferior. As ESPNJ pointed out the average last year was 71.7% which was above the norm. Maybe players are actually better FT shooters now.

Moore's shooting woes were from the 3 point range. 4 of 35, ouch!
 

slugboy

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Some of these team averages are amazingly good. I suspect that proves my point that having a regular player hitting in the 60s is kind of bad. That would bring the team average down quite a bit.
The overall average is 68%. Most free throws would be taken by regular players, so that should skew the percentage to them (hard to foul a guy who isn’t on the floor). 60% is as far below average as 76% is above it.

Here’s UNC’s stats for the year. I’d scroll down to “Totals”. The good shooters have the ball in their hands more often, so they take most of the free throws. As a team, they’re at 74%, which is above average.

Back to the idea that FT% isn’t highly correlated with winning—if you’re already shooting well, your overall shooting percentage is probably more highly correlated with winning. It’s smarter to spend more time on shooting from anywhere in game situations than on the charity stripe. Good shooting should translate to free throws, but free throws might not translate to overall shooting
 

Northeast Stinger

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60% is below average by about 1 of every 10 FTs. If Moore makes 3 more FTs out of his 93 attempts he is above the National average. You said we used to think anything below 80% was inferior. That is simply false unless you thought the vast majority of NCAA BB players were inferior. As ESPNJ pointed out the average last year was 71.7% which was above the norm. Maybe players are actually better FT shooters now.

Moore's shooting woes were from the 3 point range. 4 of 35, ouch!
Yeah, looking at the 300 or so teams, if they all had an average like Moore’s that would be pretty bad. My original post still holds. Your starters need to keep your team in the 70+ range, and individuals who can’t shoot 3s or gobble up rebounds need to shoot closer to 80% FT.
 

Northeast Stinger

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The overall average is 68%. Most free throws would be taken by regular players, so that should skew the percentage to them (hard to foul a guy who isn’t on the floor). 60% is as far below average as 76% is above it.

Here’s UNC’s stats for the year. I’d scroll down to “Totals”. The good shooters have the ball in their hands more often, so they take most of the free throws. As a team, they’re at 74%, which is above average.

Back to the idea that FT% isn’t highly correlated with winning—if you’re already shooting well, your overall shooting percentage is probably more highly correlated with winning. It’s smarter to spend more time on shooting from anywhere in game situations than on the charity stripe. Good shooting should translate to free throws, but free throws might not translate to overall shooting
Be curious what coaches would say and whether or not their philosophy has changed over the last 50 years or so.
 

gte447f

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What has changed is that back in the day you would not see guys shoot 40% from 3 and 70% or less from the charity stripe. Good 3 point shooters would be over 80% from the foul line.
 

slugboy

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What has changed is that back in the day you would not see guys shoot 40% from 3 and 70% or less from the charity stripe. Good 3 point shooters would be over 80% from the foul line.
30 years ago was 1993, and the free throw average has been around 68% since then. The three point line was only introduced into NCAA basketball in 1986.

That’s only 7 years that aren’t covered in that look back at free throw shooting. Are you sure you aren’t looking back with rose colored glasses?
 

gte447f

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30 years ago was 1993, and the free throw average has been around 68% since then. The three point line was only introduced into NCAA basketball in 1986.

That’s only 7 years that aren’t covered in that look back at free throw shooting. Are you sure you aren’t looking back with rose colored glasses?
I could be looking through rose colored glasses, but I don’t think so. The back in the day I’m thinking of is late 80’s early 90’s era, and I am not talking about average free throw shooters. I think there was a strong correlation between elite 3 point shooting and elite free throw shooting at that time and I don’t think that correlation is as strong today as it was in that era. I don’t have any data to back it up, just my memory, so I could be wrong.
 

Root4GT

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Yeah, looking at the 300 or so teams, if they all had an average like Moore’s that would be pretty bad. My original post still holds. Your starters need to keep your team in the 70+ range, and individuals who can’t shoot 3s or gobble up rebounds need to shoot closer to 80% FT.
Generally guys who can't shoot 3 don't shoot FTs very well either, there is a correlation. As I said if Moore made 3 more out of 93 FTs he would be above the NCAA average. Find another fault, you are barking up the wrong tree here. Of the top 100 men's NCAA Division 1 FTs shooters last year 89 were guards. Wonder why?
 

Northeast Stinger

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Generally guys who can't shoot 3 don't shoot FTs very well either, there is a correlation. As I said if Moore made 3 more out of 93 FTs he would be above the NCAA average. Find another fault, you are barking up the wrong tree here. Of the top 100 men's NCAA Division 1 FTs shooters last year 89 were guards. Wonder why?
Just for fun, check out the game’s best free throw shooters and who is considered #1.


#
 

cpf2001

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I could be looking through rose colored glasses, but I don’t think so. The back in the day I’m thinking of is late 80’s early 90’s era, and I am not talking about average free throw shooters. I think there was a strong correlation between elite 3 point shooting and elite free throw shooting at that time and I don’t think that correlation is as strong today as it was in that era. I don’t have any data to back it up, just my memory, so I could be wrong.
I think you're definitely right that more players have gotten better at 3pt shooting than have gotten better at FT shooting.

My assumption: The guys who've gotten to >30% 3pt now probably aren't the ones who shooting came super-easy too, who used to be great at 3 and FTs even in a game that emphasized the 3 much less. They've instead done it through a lot more hard work (work that would've been a midrange game, or post moves, in the past), and it's been a better investment to invest in getting good at the 3 than at the stripe.
 

OG-T

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CDS said he’d flip things in 180 days - based on roster additions, and having to overcome National reputation on the court with the results from the last two years, I give coach and his staff a grade “A” on the current roster. Very pleased, and see a team that has the “paper potential” to be a problem for the opposition on most nights. VERY excited for November and onward.

Current Roster: obviously not locked into a position or starter - this team may have multiple starters through season. If all back, that’s 11 deep for practice and games. 💪

PG - Sturdivant/Abram
SG- Kelly*/Terry/Forrest
SF - Coleman/Reeves
PF - Gapare/Ndongo
C - Claude/ Dowuona
*Entered Draft, no agent.
 

Northeast Stinger

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CDS said he’d flip things in 180 days - based on roster additions, and having to overcome National reputation on the court with the results from the last two years, I give coach and his staff a grade “A” on the current roster. Very pleased, and see a team that has the “paper potential” to be a problem for the opposition on most nights. VERY excited for November and onward.

Current Roster: obviously not locked into a position or starter - this team may have multiple starters through season. If all back, that’s 11 deep for practice and games. 💪

PG - Sturdivant/Abram
SG- Kelly*/Terry/Forrest
SF - Coleman/Reeves
PF - Gapare/Ndongo
C - Claude/ Dowuona
*Entered Draft, no agent.
Do we feel like all these players are or could be interchangeable at each position?

Like, for instance, could a lineup of Abram, Terry, Coleman, Ndongo, Dowuona work?
 

orientalnc

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Assuming Kelly returns, we have four holdovers, one incoming freshman, and six transfers. Unless I missed someone, we have 2 slots left to fill. My guess is that we will hold one for next year and sign one more guard. And, I do not think it will be anyone from UNC. The 201 area code could be getting calls from 404.

With experienced big transfers, I doubt we will see Ndongo in the starting lineup until much later. Expect Kelly, Reeves, Terry, Coleman, Abram, Sturdivant, Claude, and someone else to be our top eight. The starters could include different combinations (especially early in the season) based on matchups and how well the guys play together. They may have to have names on front and back of their practice jerseys for a while. This will be the biggest lineup turnover I have ever seen at GT.
 

AUFC

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I will be pleasantly surprised if Ndongo is ready to play. I am picturing him getting Cyril/FPB type minutes until he undergoes a D1 strength program for at least a year. I'm really hoping Claude's game translates well from mid-major to high-major like Javon Franklin's did. A small lineup will break the scoreboard in the 4-out with 4 lethal 3 point shooters and a dominant Claude in the post. And yes, we will play a small lineup at times but Kelly and Coleman defend well and Terry is good for taking 2 momentum-shifting charges a game.

I'm picturing some huge runs in McCamish next season if the crowd gets going and the guards get out in transition for some in-rhythm 3s. I think Deebo has an enormous comeback season next year as a spot-up shooter in a motion-centric offense.
 
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