2022 ACC Baseball

FredJacket

FredJacket

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Ok. Now I'm just killing time... but the Jackets are currently 10th. I think they can get as high as 7th if this happens:
1) Win out (sweep Pitt)
2) UNC wins out (sweep FSU)
In this scenario, Tech moves ahead of FSU & Pitt & one of WF/NCST.
Tech holds 3 way tiebreaker with UNC /FSU should all 3 end up 15-15.

Must say... I don't expect the above to happen. A sweep of Pitt feels like a significant reach. If it's 1-1 these last 2 games, 10th looks like where Tech stays.
 

GTJon

Jolly Good Fellow
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FredJacket said:
Ok. Now I'm just killing time... but the Jackets are currently 10th. I think they can get as high as 7th if this happens:
1) Win out (sweep Pitt)
2) UNC wins out (sweep FSU)
In this scenario, Tech moves ahead of FSU & Pitt & one of WF/NCST.
Tech holds 3 way tiebreaker with UNC /FSU should all 3 end up 15-15.

Must say... I don't expect the above to happen. A sweep of Pitt feels like a significant reach. If it's 1-1 these last 2 games, 10th looks like where Tech stays.
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That looks right. If we win out, we would be no worse than 8th. Would jump Pitt and either Wake/NCSt no matter what.
But if we lose just 1, could still finish 12th if Clemson and UNC win out. And that's just a crazy amount of parity and strength in your conference if the last place team in the tournament still finished 14-16.
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

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GTJon said:
That looks right. If we win out, we would be no worse than 8th. Would jump Pitt and either Wake/NCSt no matter what.
But if we lose just 1, could still finish 12th if Clemson and UNC win out. And that's just a crazy amount of parity and strength in your conference if the last place team in the tournament still finished 14-16.
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Thanks ... agree. Clemson (v BC) could easily win out by the way. UNC (v FSU) doing that is tougher. Both are at home, though.
 

bensaysitathome

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How does the seeding work? What's the benefit to being 10th vs 7th?

It just matches us up against a different top-4 seed, right? Out of L'ville, ND, Miami, and VT; I'd probably want to be in ND's pod.
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

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bensaysitathome said:
How does the seeding work? What's the benefit to being 10th vs 7th?

It just matches us up against a different top-4 seed, right? Out of L'ville, ND, Miami, and VT; I'd probably want to be in ND's pod.
Click to expand...

Pool A: 1/8/12
Pool B: 2/7/11
Pool C: 3/6/10
Pool D: 4/5/9

Semis:
Winners AvD
Winners BvC

I see no benefit (at this point). Like you're thinking... the matchups matter more & lots of movement up & down by all teams still in play.
 
CTJacket

CTJacket

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GTNavyNuke said:
What happens if we don't lose again this year?
Click to expand...
Threaten Talladega Nights GIF
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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GTJon said:
That looks right. If we win out, we would be no worse than 8th. Would jump Pitt and either Wake/NCSt no matter what.
But if we lose just 1, could still finish 12th if Clemson and UNC win out. And that's just a crazy amount of parity and strength in your conference if the last place team in the tournament still finished 14-16.
Click to expand...
Clemson can't catch us now. We lose tomorrow we're 14-16. Clemson wins, they're 13-16 due to a cancelled game against Pitt.

My question is what happens if we win tomorrow, UNC wins tomorrow, and the NC State - Wake game isn't played or ends in a tie? If it's not played, then Tech, UNC, and FSU would be 15-15, NC State 14-14, and Wake 14-14-1 due to a tie against Louisville. Does that tie count for anything, or are all 5 teams matched up in tie breakers?
 

GTJon

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Very nice win but I still would really like to finish the sweep tomorrow. I'm not sure the ACC is going to pull out 11 teams in the NCAA Tourney so someone in the jumbled mess of the final 6 seeds could be left out (besides Pitt). Let's just go ahead and erase doubt with a .500 conference record. I think with that, even 0-2 in the ACC Tourney would still be safe. I just hate looking at the losing conference record when you're on the bubble, no matter how good the RPI is.
 

GTJon

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CINCYMETJACKET said:
Clemson can't catch us now. We lose tomorrow we're 14-16. Clemson wins, they're 13-16 due to a cancelled game against Pitt.

My question is what happens if we win tomorrow, UNC wins tomorrow, and the NC State - Wake game isn't played or ends in a tie? If it's not played, then Tech, UNC, and FSU would be 15-15, NC State 14-14, and Wake 14-14-1 due to a tie against Louisville. Does that tie count for anything, or are all 5 teams matched up in tie breakers?
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I think the tie when at .500 otherwise would not count for anything. The percentage would have to still be .500. I'm not sure if it were 15-14-1 vs 15-14. I think the way to look at a tie is it's 0.5 of a win. So 15-14-1 is 15.5/30 which is slightly different than 15/29. But 14-14-1 is 14.5/29 which is still 0.500.

So yes, I think in that scenario, it would be a 5 way tiebreak. Good luck to the stats guys in the ACC office figuring that one out.
 
78pike

78pike

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CINCYMETJACKET said:
Clemson can't catch us now. We lose tomorrow we're 14-16. Clemson wins, they're 13-16 due to a cancelled game against Pitt.

My question is what happens if we win tomorrow, UNC wins tomorrow, and the NC State - Wake game isn't played or ends in a tie? If it's not played, then Tech, UNC, and FSU would be 15-15, NC State 14-14, and Wake 14-14-1 due to a tie against Louisville. Does that tie count for anything, or are all 5 teams matched up in tie breakers?
Click to expand...
I think I read somewhere that 15-15 would seed better than 14-14 because of having more wins in conference regardless of the fact both teams are .500 in conference.
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

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CINCYMETJACKET said:
Clemson can't catch us now. We lose tomorrow we're 14-16. Clemson wins, they're 13-16 due to a cancelled game against Pitt.

My question is what happens if we win tomorrow, UNC wins tomorrow, and the NC State - Wake game isn't played or ends in a tie? If it's not played, then Tech, UNC, and FSU would be 15-15, NC State 14-14, and Wake 14-14-1 due to a tie against Louisville. Does that tie count for anything, or are all 5 teams matched up in tie breakers?
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All 5 teams would be tied.

It gets complicated.

I think 1st tiebreaker is winning % among games played between these tied teams (if they all played each other).

By my quick scan UNC prevails in that 5 way tie.. then you do it with the 4 teams left... I think. Ga Tech would be below .500 on these calculations. So not good for GT.
 
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CINCYMETJACKET

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FredJacket said:
A bit of cherry picking but interesting to me.

Bottom 5 in ACC
Ga Tech
UNC
Clemson
Duke
BC

What did these teams have in common entering this weekend? None had played BC. (Clemson is playing them this weekend)

BC has only 5 wins. As of today that's half as many as Duke... the 13th place team. That's waaaaay back in the way back.

As it turned out... it was a pretty significant advantage having BC on your schedule this year.
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The sad thing is that Tech is 3-6 against those teams.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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78pike said:
I think I read somewhere that 15-15 would seed better than 14-14 because of having more wins in conference regardless of the fact both teams are .500 in conference.
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Based on the ACC's team by team tie breaking scenario, I believe FredJacket's response is correct. All 5 teams would be tied. From the ACC tiebreaking criteria:
  • When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail even if the number of games played against a team or group of teams is unequal. If winning percentage of the tied teams is equal against a team, or a group of tied teams, continue until one team gains an advantage. For example, 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-3.
If 1-0 is the same as 2-0, I would assume that 15-15 is the same as 14-14.

The simple answer. Just win. And the rest of the dominoes will fall however they fall. I believe we can still finish anywhere from the 7 to the 11 seed. With one game left. Wow!
 
gtrower

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GTJon said:
Very nice win but I still would really like to finish the sweep tomorrow. I'm not sure the ACC is going to pull out 11 teams in the NCAA Tourney so someone in the jumbled mess of the final 6 seeds could be left out (besides Pitt). Let's just go ahead and erase doubt with a .500 conference record. I think with that, even 0-2 in the ACC Tourney would still be safe. I just hate looking at the losing conference record when you're on the bubble, no matter how good the RPI is.
Click to expand...

I’d say 9 is near a lock, 10 is likely, and 11 is in play. Only 2 teams in the country have more quad 1 wins than us. It would be a travesty to leave us out. I think we’re a 2 seed as things stand.
 
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