2020 MLB Draft

[FredJacket]

How does bonus money play into all this? If all this is bonus money... then [embarrassed face]

 

[JacketOff]

How does bonus money play into all this? If all this is bonus money... then [embarrassed face]

Lol no need to be embarrassed. MLB financials do tend to be confusing. Anytime money is discussed with the draft it is bonus money. All players sign the same minor league contract when they sign, and their salaries are the same, whether they sign for $9M or $9k in the draft. Teams have players under control for their “rookie” contract for 7 years, whether they spend all 7 in the minors or 1 in the minors and 6 in the majors. Teams are free to renegotiate at any time, but there’s no incentive for them to until a players gets to his free agent year. This fact is a big reason why the players are split in their financial debate with the league. Very few of them have the top dollar contracts that are publicized so often. I saw a stat recently that said a player who spends less than 3 full seasons in the majors won’t even net $1M in salary, and nearly 2/3 of players aren’t reaching that 3 season threshold.

 

[FittedJacket]

Sadly: Waddell, Radcliffe, Goldberg, Parada, DeLeo and Grissom all drafted on Thursday night....

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Sadly: Waddell, Radcliffe, Goldberg, Parada, DeLeo and Grissom all drafted on Thursday night....

I guess if we set our expectations low enough, we'll be pleasantly surprised.

That is a lot of GT talent to go the second night. We don't have proportionally that amount of talent IMHO. There are a lot of great players eligible from college or other sources.

I'll guarantee Goldberg doesn't get drafted. I give Guldberg about a 30% chance. Radcliffe the same 30%. The commits I just have no read except what people have posted. If teams can meet their $ number, all three could get drafted.

I think we all agree anyone drafted Wednesday or Thursday is going to take the offer.

 

[THWG]

I guess if we set our expectations low enough, we'll be pleasantly surprised.

That is a lot of GT talent to go the second night. We don't have proportionally that amount of talent IMHO. There are a lot of great players eligible from college or other sources.

I'll guarantee Goldberg doesn't get drafted. I give Guldberg about a 30% chance. Radcliffe the same 30%. The commits I just have no read except what people have posted. If teams can meet their $ number, all three could get drafted.

I think we all agree anyone drafted Wednesday or Thursday is going to take the offer.

My dad has a client who is a scout for the Cubs. He said that he loves Guldberg and he might be the best pure hitter that he's ever seen. He said that he is trying to convince the higher ups to take him, but he said this back in April and thought that the Cubs get him in the 10-15 rd range. With there being only 5 rds, I would be highly surprised if he is drafted like you said. Same thing goes for Radcliffe.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

My dad has a client who is a scout for the Cubs. He said that he loves Guldberg and he might be the best pure hitter that he's ever seen. He said that he is trying to convince the higher ups to take him, but he said this back in April and thought that the Cubs get him in the 10-15 rd range. With there being only 5 rds, I would be highly surprised if he is drafted like you said. Same thing goes for Radcliffe.

Agree 100%. We have a lot of talent but if there are only 130 spots, I don't see us having 4.6% (=6/130) of that top 130 talent. There are too many very good programs in college and kids coming up from HS/foreign countries for our % to be that large.

 

[eokerholm]

Agreed. I don't think a lot of our guys go in the 160 slots this year.
I do think next year, when, and hopefully, it is 20 rounds to give more a chance, we'll see that group of SR/JR leave if they get good slots. (9 or 10 maybe with Archer and Wilhite)

I looked it up and draft eligible age is 21?

No threats of the C-FR leaving after next season:

• Maxwell will only be 20 yrs and 4 months for 2021 draft.
• Tres will be 20 and 7 and all the other repeating "Freshman" crew.

Then that whole crew of STUDS will be eligible after 22 season.

From the SO class

• Barnicki & Cort will both be of age after 21 season. (only 4 in the SO class last year)

Teams have to be pretty darn sure someone is going to sign to offer this week, given the few picks they get this year. Should be interesting Thurs/Fri to see whose names get called.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

Most first rounders will get offered the entirety of their slot. There may be a few towards the end of the round that they’ll try to save money on, but typically at least 1-15 will all get their slot value. If they do try to save money, it would be on a college kid, as even juniors have less leverage than a high school kid.

In a normal draft year, pretty much everyone in the first 2 rounds will get their entire slot value, or very close to it. The third round is usually the first round where teams will start trying to save a bit, but not a ton. I know Tristin English’s third round value last year was around $650-$700k, but he ended up only getting $500k.

Rounds 4-6 are the big time money saver rounds. Most teams will sign at least 2 college seniors here, and offer them significantly under slot value. I’m talking anywhere from $4,000 to $20,000. Jake Mangum from Miss. St, who left school as the all time SEC hits leader, signed for $4,000 in the 4th round last year. In a normal year, you could probably expect Hughes to be one of these picks.

Then rounds 7-10 will be guys signing for at or near slot value, and there’s generally one guy who gets over slotted a lot. 11-40 all have a value of $125k, and while they can sign guys for more than that, there’s some kind of penalty for it.

All bets are off this year though. I’ve got no idea where teams will try to save, or even who they’ll be prioritizing. I would assume the only guys to sign as free agents would be seniors, so don’t expect of them to be drafted. But other than that, it’s a whole new world.

Interesting that you mention Mangum, as my Mets offered a great tutorial last year as to how some teams handle bonuses and slot values (you said that he signed for $4K, but I believe it was $20K):

1st round: Brett Baty, 3B, HS, slot $4.366M, signed $3.9M
2nd round: Josh Wolf, RHP, HS, slot $1.37M, signed $2.15M
3rd round: Matthew Allan, RHP, HS, slot $667.9K, signed $2.5M
4th round: Jake Mangum, CF, Miss St., slot $487.9K, signed $20K
5th round: Nathan Jones, RHP, Northwestern, slot $364.4K, signed $10K
6th round: Zach Ashford, CF, Fresno State, slot $277.1K, signed $10K
7th round: Luke Ritter, 2B, Wichita State, slot $216.6K, signed $10K
8th round: Conner Wollersheim, LHP, Kent State, slot $174K, signed $1K
9th round: Joe Genord, 1B, South Florida, slot $154.6K, signed $10K
10th round: Scott Ota, RF, UIC, slot $145.3K, signed $1K

Their game plan last year was to sign senior college talent well below slot value from rounds 4 through 10 to try to sign Allan, who was a 1st round talent committed to Florida that slipped to the 3rd round because of signability concerns. And they made it happen, getting a first round talent in the third round, while also adding the SEC hits leader!

 

[THWG]

Interesting that you mention Mangum, as my Mets offered a great tutorial last year as to how some teams handle bonuses and slot values (you said that he signed for $4K, but I believe it was $20K):

1st round: Brett Baty, 3B, HS, slot $4.366M, signed $3.9M
2nd round: Josh Wolf, RHP, HS, slot $1.37M, signed $2.15M
3rd round: Matthew Allan, RHP, HS, slot $667.9K, signed $2.5M
4th round: Jake Mangum, CF, Miss St., slot $487.9K, signed $20K
5th round: Nathan Jones, RHP, Northwestern, slot $364.4K, signed $10K
6th round: Zach Ashford, CF, Fresno State, slot $277.1K, signed $10K
7th round: Luke Ritter, 2B, Wichita State, slot $216.6K, signed $10K
8th round: Conner Wollersheim, LHP, Kent State, slot $174K, signed $1K
9th round: Joe Genord, 1B, South Florida, slot $154.6K, signed $10K
10th round: Scott Ota, RF, UIC, slot $145.3K, signed $1K

Their game plan last year was to sign senior college talent well below slot value from rounds 4 through 10 to try to sign Allan, who was a 1st round talent committed to Florida that slipped to the 3rd round because of signability concerns. And they made it happen, getting a first round talent in the third round, while also adding the SEC hits leader!

Yeah, but they're still the Mets

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

Yeah, but they're still the Mets

That they are.

The Wilpon"zi"'s, swindled by their "friend" Bernie Madoff, are now more often than not playing small market ball in one of the biggest markets in the world...

Traded their top draft pick 2 years ago for an old Cano and a closer (who regressed badly last year). That pick (Jared Kelnick) is now one of the top prospects in baseball for the Mariners.

But A-Rod and J-Lo are interested in buying the team, so there's that!

Perhaps you were mistaken. Your post should have been that they're still the Mess.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Best and final guesses for draft?

I have Luke and Parada and Thursday. Period.

I'll go on chat Wednesday @ 1900 EST (ESPN), and Thursday @ 1700 (ESPN2) so you can laugh at me. We could do Zoom if someone has a subscription ..... Yes, this COVID crap and no real baseball is hard.

As a side bet, it'll be worth a shot for every uGag player drafted.

 

[eokerholm]

Nice stats

 

[FittedJacket]

Best and final guesses for draft?

I have Luke and Parada and Thursday. Period.

I'll go on chat Wednesday @ 1900 EST (ESPN), and Thursday @ 1700 (ESPN2) so you can laugh at me. We could do Zoom if someone has a subscription ..... Yes, this COVID crap and no real baseball is hard.

As a side bet, it'll be worth a shot for every uGag player drafted.

Luke Barron Goldberg Parada Grissom DeLeo 6/6 you read it hear first

 

[JacketOff]

Luke Barron Goldberg Parada Grissom DeLeo 6/6 you read it hear first

I don’t know enough about the HS kids to have a clue about their draft status, but Waddell is the only current player who has a chance.

Hughes will probably sign as a free agent.

Radcliff has tons of potential, and given a full year he may have turned himself into a top 160 prospect, but as of now I don’t believe he is.

Guldberg is the least likely to sign in my opinion. Not because of his talent, but because of his circumstance outside of baseball. He’s finished 3 years of his IE degree with a 4.0. He can come back next year, graduate and have another year to play. That’s significantly more leverage than any other player who won’t be a consensus first rounder. With the way baseball is trending, and the minors in particular, Guldberg is way too smart to sign for less than he is worth.

 

[FredJacket]

I don’t know enough about the HS kids to have a clue about their draft status, but Waddell is the only current player who has a chance.

Hughes will probably sign as a free agent.

Radcliff has tons of potential, and given a full year he may have turned himself into a top 160 prospect, but as of now I don’t believe he is.

Guldberg is the least likely to sign in my opinion. Not because of his talent, but because of his circumstance outside of baseball. He’s finished 3 years of his IE degree with a 4.0. He can come back next year, graduate and have another year to play. That’s significantly more leverage than any other player who won’t be a consensus first rounder. With the way baseball is trending, and the minors in particular, Guldberg is way too smart to sign for less than he is worth.

I want to play along... but I'm officially the " @JacketOff took my answer" guy.

I have never been a real follower of draft & I can't know what the HS recruits' intentions are... but did hear interviews of both Parada & Grissom Jr. Neither played their hand in those interviews (no surprise). I'd bet Radcliff can raise his stock significantly with more time on college. As for Guldberg... just to pile on & FWIW I believe his father is a professor at Tech. My hunch is that only more cements his affinity to staying "in school".

 

[65Jacket]

Guldberg's father was head of one of the engineering schools at GT. He has moved on to another prominent school.

 

[GTJon]

In a normal year, I think Guldberg and Radcliff would've been gone. Maybe even Archer and Hurter as well. But since all of them will come back with 2 more years of eligibility next year, I just don't see them going in the top 5 rounds. Agree that Waddell and Parada seem to be the best bets. I suspect both are gone as they are consensus top 100 players.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I want to play along... but I'm officially the " @JacketOff took my answer" guy.

I have never been a real follower of draft & I can't know what the HS recruits' intentions are... but did hear interviews of both Parada & Grissom Jr. Neither played their hand in those interviews (no surprise). I'd bet Radcliff can raise his stock significantly with more time on college. As for Guldberg... just to pile on & FWIW I believe his father is a professor at Tech. My hunch is that only more cements his affinity to staying "in school".

Since when has not knowing prevented us from speculating?

D1 put out their mock draft of top 29 yesterday. None of our guys on it. https://d1baseball.com/analysis/2020-mlb-mock-draft/

But Hancock (6) and Wilcox (21) are in there . I think with DBo, we'll be getting more of the best state of Georgia pitchers.

 

[ball4life66]

Cody (Twitter):
Carlos can you talk about Marquis Grissom Jr? Work Ethic, competitive attitude, and stuff are impressing me more and more but nobody has him listed in their top 200.

Carlos Collazo: I'm sorry that you think we are nobodies. We actually do have him ranked among the top 200. Check out the BA 500 here.

Carlos Collazo: I do like Grissom. He has one of the better changeups in this class, though I think he became overly reliant on the pitch at times last summer. It's a fringe-average fastball now, but I could easily see that ticking up to average or a tick better as he fills out and figures out how to utilize his lower half more efficiently. He's plenty athletic as well, as you might expect considering his father. Really good projection righthander.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

In a normal year, I think Guldberg and Radcliff would've been gone. Maybe even Archer and Hurter as well. But since all of them will come back with 2 more years of eligibility next year, I just don't see them going in the top 5 rounds. Agree that Waddell and Parada seem to be the best bets. I suspect both are gone as they are consensus top 100 players.

I'll add this regarding Parada, and perhaps Waddell, with the draft. From ESPN, drafted players will receive up to $100K of their bonuses within 30 days of signing, with 50% of the remaining bonuses paid on July 1, 2021 and the other 50% paid on July 1, 2022. Big numbers for those in the first round in the next 2 years as an annuity, but it may not be worth it for those in rounds 2 through 5, when you could get a degree or a head start that could eventually lead to a degree from a great institution, as well as improve your draft position in the next year or three.