I think it would be foolish for anybody drafted to not sign this year. The slot values for the 5 rounds are the same as last year’s draft, so anybody drafted will be guaranteed to make a pretty big buck, even if most of the money will be deferred. The 160th pick of last year’s draft had a slot value of $325,000. Obviously teams don’t have to give out that much money to their picks, but I’ve got a feeling most picks will get a bonus pretty true to their slot. Teams won’t mess around and pick guys who are on the fence about signing. Because there aren’t rounds 6-10 where they could save money by signing seniors early, there’s no need to try and save bonus money this year.
There probably won’t be more than just a couple of seniors selected this year. Teams won’t burn a pick on a guy they could probably sign for $20,000 anyway. Plus, there aren’t many seniors in this class who had a lot of buzz anyway. According to Perfect Game, Cam Shepherd from Georgia is the 2nd ranked senior this year, and Hughes is ranked 5th. Both talented guys who probably would’ve been signed at a senior discount somewhere between rounds 4-10 in a normal draft, but not exactly top 160 players in the country talented. The good news is that Hancock and Wilcox from Georgia are both very likely to be drafted, and like I said, I don’t think very many guys will turn down their offer this year. There’s no guarantee the slot money will even be equal to 2019’s in 2021, and even if they improve their stock they may end up taking less money.
An interesting point I hadn’t thought of is that every player that goes undrafted is a complete free-for-all. All 30 MLB teams will be in “recruiting” battles for players. It could create a huge competitive disadvantage for small market teams like the Royals and Mariners, while large market teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are able to sign dozens of more players. Going to be a strange draft year for sure. Hopefully all of our guys get what they’re expecting.
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