2020 MLB Draft

[FredJacket]

Interesting Bleacher Report on MLB salaries this year and possibility of a season with 50% of the games. I am not ready to comment, except to say that the MLB business model is very vulnerable.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...posal-for-2020-season-will-be-sent-to-players

Maybe with half the games, my O's shouldn't be as far out of first at the end.

I was somewhat optimistic we'd see MLB start up in July with the "only" (relative term) obstacle being figuring out how to protect personnel from the virus while playing in empty stadiums.

I wrongly assumed the deal (in principle) they hammered out a couple of months ago with prorated salaries was logical & incentivized getting back to playing was the plan. I was not considering the owners & MLB's proposal here would be a revenue sharing thing.

This is officially REALLY complicated & these negotiations are likely to be drawn out.... & THEN we can see if all parties agree it's safe.

Oh well... GO NASCAR! Left turns this Sunday. Rubbin's Racin'

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I was somewhat optimistic we'd see MLB start up in July with the "only" (relative term) obstacle being figuring out how to protect personnel from the virus while playing in empty stadiums.

I wrongly assumed the deal (in principle) they hammered out a couple of months ago with prorated salaries was logical & incentivized getting back to playing was the plan. I was not considering the owners & MLB's proposal here would be a revenue sharing thing.

This is officially REALLY complicated & these negotiations are likely to be drawn out.... & THEN we can see if all parties agree it's safe.

Oh well... GO NASCAR! Left turns this Sunday. Rubbin's Racin'

This mayhem would only make it harder for me to counsel my son as to whether to take an offer. I guess I would lean more towards taking what is here this year because things can get worse. But then again, I can see the glass as half empty and evaporating.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Aaron Fitt discusses the MLB actions and why it makes sense to get a degree rather than go to the minors. Brutal.

https://d1baseball.com/columns/fitt-mlb-reduces-job-opportunities-at-its-own-peril/

 

[eokerholm]

Did you see this? Prada is #60. Waddell #173, Hurter is #178 Guldberg #188, Grissom Jr is #223, Deleo #240 Baron #250,
Might have a few more showing up/returning if they don't go or go as FA.
5 Rounds is 161 picks.
https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-bonus-slots



https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=18203&src=hmrep

 

[eokerholm]

Hurry up and do this so we can see how the chips fall afterward...

 

[eokerholm]

Good luck Luke!!


article https://www.wcpo.com/sports/high-sc...ndout-luke-waddell-is-preparing-for-mlb-draft

 

[ball4life66]

Would be huge if he made it to campus.....

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Would be huge if he made it to campus.....

Next Wednesday and Thursday we need to watch ESPN/ESPN2 with a list of names we want to see called (Luke is one and any dwag) and ones we don't.

I think Parada controls his destiny. If he will accept an offer for a certain dollar amount the scouts know it.

I like the *probably* in the tweet and the top 10 in 2023. That is the problem, whether to take the money now or wait for an uncertain probable increase later on. Being at Tech is a lot better life than living in the puppy farm of the minors.

 

[ball4life66]

Kevin Parada — Catcher — Loyola HS (California)

The next in line in the great lineage of catchers to go through Georgia Tech; or so I think. Parada likely won’t sign if drafted. Could be a Top 10 pick in 2023. Better than 50/50 shot to stay behind the plate. Could legitimately be a 55 hit, 55 power catcher. Unreal.

 

[THWG]

Man, I would love for this to be right.

 

[JacketOff]

As good as it would be for Parada to turn down the draft and make it to the Flats, I don’t see it happening if he’s selected. You’d have to be downright insane to not sign this year. I’ve said before, there is going to be very clear expectations from both players and teams that anybody drafted will be expected to sign. With so few picks this year, teams won’t risk wasting one on a guy who’s even thinking about going to school instead. If Parada intends on attending Tech, I believe it’s much more likely he goes undrafted than it is he chooses not to sign.

 

[FredJacket]

As good as it would be for Parada to turn down the draft and make it to the Flats, I don’t see it happening if he’s selected. You’d have to be downright insane to not sign this year. I’ve said before, there is going to be very clear expectations from both players and teams that anybody drafted will be expected to sign. With so few picks this year, teams won’t risk wasting one on a guy who’s even thinking about going to school instead. If Parada intends on attending Tech, I believe it’s much more likely he goes undrafted than it is he chooses not to sign.

Agree. ...which to me means whoever put that list together is either all out 'guessing' on Parada's intentions or has some information on how he's leaning. To your point... and my question... aren't these teams doing their homework on guys like Parada. They KNOW (to the extent Parada is honest with them) if he plans to sign if drafted or wants to go to college, right? ...and there is ZERO incentive for a player to not be honest, either... right?

 

[eokerholm]

Not sure how the conversations go and how honest both sides are.
I wonder if he says he'll draft it ups his slot money and bonus, no? to see if it hits the "magic number" to decide on school or draft??
I'm guessing here....

 

[eokerholm]

I didn't really know how it all worked or looked. Here are the slots for each of the 160 picks, but they won't pay up to the slot amount?
So the #1 pick doesn't make $8.4M?

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-bonus-slots

 

[JacketOff]

I didn't really know how it all worked or looked. Here are the slots for each of the 160 picks, but they won't pay up to the slot amount?
So the #1 pick doesn't make $8.4M?

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-bonus-slots
View attachment 8395View attachment 8396

I’m not sure I understand what you’re asking here? Maybe I’m just dumb though

 

[eokerholm]

The 8.4M for #1 pick. Does the guy get that or do they normally offer $7.5M and save $900K to spend elsewhere?
Are there bonuses on top of the $7.5 offered?

Basically how does it actually work/look vs "slot" from those in the know. I'm certainly not one of them.

 

[GTJon]

The 8.4M for #1 pick. Does the guy get that or do they normally offer $7.5M and save $900K to spend elsewhere?
Are there bonuses on top of the $7.5 offered?

Basically how does it actually work/look vs "slot" from those in the know. I'm certainly not one of them.

Who knows exactly how this year goes. The mindset will be so different.

However, typically it's like this. Teams are given a "budget" of how much they can spend in the first 10 rounds. That is the sum of those slot values. If they overpay for someone, they've got to underpay for someone else. So what happens a lot is they'll take a 1st rounder than might seem a little early for that player. The goal is to get him to sign for less than slot value and then they have their eye on using that money on someone, many times an undecided high schooler, a few rounds later.

I know an example is the Cubs a few years ago with Kyle Schwarber. I think they took him 4th overall out of Indiana University which everyone thought was a big reach. But part of their plan was to sign him to less than slot (but still more than he expected to get before the draft) and then they used that money to pay extra to others later in the top 10.

This year it may not apply as much given there's no late top 10 round picks out there, which is often a big area to do this trick. And there's other rules I believe that defer all their money except like $100,000 to future years due to the economic issues in baseball right now.

 

[GTJon]

One more draft note. In mock drafts, I'm seeing a lot of ACC players going in the first round. I believe if you throw in the 2 UGA pitchers, there could be 10 or so of the 29 picks (Houston doesn't have one) that will come from teams that we face. If we only lose 1 or 2 total in the draft (including high schoolers), could be a nice plus for us next year.

 

[JacketOff]

The 8.4M for #1 pick. Does the guy get that or do they normally offer $7.5M and save $900K to spend elsewhere?
Are there bonuses on top of the $7.5 offered?

Basically how does it actually work/look vs "slot" from those in the know. I'm certainly not one of them.

Most first rounders will get offered the entirety of their slot. There may be a few towards the end of the round that they’ll try to save money on, but typically at least 1-15 will all get their slot value. If they do try to save money, it would be on a college kid, as even juniors have less leverage than a high school kid.

In a normal draft year, pretty much everyone in the first 2 rounds will get their entire slot value, or very close to it. The third round is usually the first round where teams will start trying to save a bit, but not a ton. I know Tristin English’s third round value last year was around $650-$700k, but he ended up only getting $500k.

Rounds 4-6 are the big time money saver rounds. Most teams will sign at least 2 college seniors here, and offer them significantly under slot value. I’m talking anywhere from $4,000 to $20,000. Jake Mangum from Miss. St, who left school as the all time SEC hits leader, signed for $4,000 in the 4th round last year. In a normal year, you could probably expect Hughes to be one of these picks.

Then rounds 7-10 will be guys signing for at or near slot value, and there’s generally one guy who gets over slotted a lot. 11-40 all have a value of $125k, and while they can sign guys for more than that, there’s some kind of penalty for it.

All bets are off this year though. I’ve got no idea where teams will try to save, or even who they’ll be prioritizing. I would assume the only guys to sign as free agents would be seniors, so don’t expect of them to be drafted. But other than that, it’s a whole new world.

 

[GTJon]

Keith Law at the Athletic has his top 100 prospects out today. By my count, 12 out of top 36 are ACC or UGA players or commits. Parada is 37, Waddell is 100.