2019 ACC Baseball

[GTNavyNuke]

Think that earned run streak will end after and inning or two this Friday.

Two innings it was, good call.

 

[FredJacket]

Heading into final weekend of non-conference baseball. Three ACC teams are unbeaten: NC State, FSU, and Va Tech (what??!!?). Ok... I had to look. VT is 7-0 having played what appear to be quite weak teams (based on name recognition only)... but credit to them for not losing; and giving up low run totals. [I did not delve into their numbers anymore than that] I'd say nothing else is much of a surprise.. so far. One loss teams: Duke, UNC, Clemson.

Not really any "marquee" type matchups this weekend. Minnesota at NC State may be the best 2-team series going.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Heading into final weekend of non-conference baseball. Three ACC teams are unbeaten: NC State, FSU, and Va Tech (what??!!?). Ok... I had to look. VT is 7-0 having played what appear to be quite weak teams (based on name recognition only)... but credit to them for not losing; and giving up low run totals. [I did not delve into their numbers anymore than that] I'd say nothing else is much of a surprise.. so far. One loss teams: Duke, UNC, Clemson.

Not really any "marquee" type matchups this weekend. Minnesota at NC State may be the best 2-team series going.

It hasn't been that long ago that we started 12-0 (2016). We then went 26-25 to finish the year, 13-16 in the ACC.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Gotta root for @Clemson (7-1) over USCe (7-1) this weekend I guess. On one hand, I don't want Clemson to be good this year (or any year). On the other, I want them to be worth more when we beat them.

Neither team has played a good team yet. So it'll be a good chance to see how good the new Clemson pitchers really are. @ Clemson and they have won the last 4 series 2-1. So "expect" Clemson to win the series.

Both teams are struggling batting. Which is really surprising to me given the teams they have played. CU .262 and USCe .275.

Not ACC but I'm a big Ga Southern fan this weekend. Hope they sweep UGAg. No conflict there. Still laughing about UGAg's 1-0 loss to LIU Brooklyn. Nice of UGAg to let LIU go 1-6. Statistically, I'd say that was improbable.

107 days to the CWS. A lot of baseball to be played.

 

[FredJacket]

Gotta root for @Clemson (7-1) over USCe (7-1) this weekend I guess. On one hand, I don't want Clemson to be good this year (or any year). On the other, I want them to be worth more when we beat them.

Neither team has played a good team yet. So it'll be a good chance to see how good the new Clemson pitchers really are. @ Clemson and they have won the last 4 series 2-1. So "expect" Clemson to win the series.

Both teams are struggling batting. Which is really surprising to me given the teams they have played. CU .262 and USCe .275.

Not ACC but I'm a big Ga Southern fan this weekend. Hope they sweep UGAg. No conflict there. Still laughing about UGAg's 1-0 loss to LIU Brooklyn. Nice of UGAg to let LIU go 1-6. Statistically, I'd say that was improbable.

107 days to the CWS. A lot of baseball to be played.

Good catch without calling me out. USCe at Clemson is obviously the biggest ACC-involved series. The Minn at NC State is a distant 2nd. Yep.. agree Clemson winning is ultimately better for Tech when we beat them multiple times. ...never UGA!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Gotta root for @Clemson (7-1) over USCe (7-1) this weekend I guess. On one hand, I don't want Clemson to be good this year (or any year). On the other, I want them to be worth more when we beat them.

Neither team has played a good team yet. So it'll be a good chance to see how good the new Clemson pitchers really are. @ Clemson and they have won the last 4 series 2-1. So "expect" Clemson to win the series.........

Clemson getting pounded 11-1 in rubber match game T5th. They gave up 5 runs on Friday and Saturday. So their pitching hasn't been proven out yet.

ACC is going to be a dog fight this year in the middle where I "expect" us to be. Right now there are 9 teams in the ACC who have lost fewer than our 4 lost games.

If we could be **consistent** on offense, 3rd base play and relief pitching, we'd be great. Till then, "expect" us to be fighting for a NCAA berth to get eliminated in the first round at an elite team's home field. "Hope" we get home field.

11 games down and 43 to go. Nothing for us to do but wait and see.

 

[FredJacket]

Clemson getting pounded 11-1 in rubber match game T5th. They gave up 5 runs on Friday and Saturday. So their pitching hasn't been proven out yet.

ACC is going to be a dog fight this year in the middle where I "expect" us to be. Right now there are 9 teams in the ACC who have lost fewer than our 4 lost games.

If we could be **consistent** on offense, 3rd base play and relief pitching, we'd be great. Till then, "expect" us to be fighting for a NCAA berth to get eliminated in the first round at an elite team's home field. "Hope" we get home field.

11 games down and 43 to go. Nothing for us to do but wait and see.

The fact we don't play FSU or NC State gives us a leg up.... or should.

 

[THWG]

The fact we don't play FSU or NC State gives us a leg up.... or should.

Also getting our "major" series at home (UNC, Clemson, UVA) should help.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Also getting our "major" series at home (UNC, Clemson, UVA) should help.

It'll help.

But look at this Warren Nolan projection for us in the ACC. 9-21. http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Georgia-Tech

It still is too early in the season to have any confidence in any predictions. But we have to improve a lot to catch up to where other teams are already. All teams have their strengths and weaknesses (well almost all except the likes of Vandy, UNC, UCLA .....). Looking at our mostly home schedule to date and record, I can see where an algorithm would come up with this based only on performance and not potential. 9 ACCs teams have a better win % than we do.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

It'll help.

But look at this Warren Nolan projection for us in the ACC. 9-21. http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Georgia-Tech

It still is too early in the season to have any confidence in any predictions. But we have to improve a lot to catch up to where other teams are already. All teams have their strengths and weaknesses (well almost all except the likes of Vandy, UNC, UCLA .....). Looking at our mostly home schedule to date and record, I can see where an algorithm would come up with this based only on performance and not potential. 9 ACCs teams have a better win % than we do.

That guy is a freaking idiot. I could see picking us to be in the middle somewhere, but you can’t end up at 9-21 unless you’re trying to fit other teams you care about and have to adjust records like ours to make your predictions work.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

That guy is a freaking idiot. I could see picking us to be in the middle somewhere, but you can’t end up at 9-21 unless you’re trying to fit other teams you care about and have to adjust records like ours to make your predictions work.

Finishing 100 is right at 1/3 of all teams, better than average. I don't think he is biased, it's more that it is so early in the season that there are a lot of stupid rankings throughout. Like 4-6 NW with an RPI of 19.

Looking at D1 Baseball's top 25 this morning, I count 10 SEC teams and 4 ACC teams (UNC, L'Ville, FSU, NCSt). Not playing two may help our total number of wins. It won't help our SoS. So we have to get the wins, especially on the road. His 3-18 predicted road record is what kills us in his prediction; it has to be based on last year. Which makes sense until you get this year's statistics.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

In the last 40 years, we've never been even close to something like 9-21. You'll find a couple years of 12-18 and 13-16, but those our outliers and still a big difference from 9-21. I'm not here saying we're going to be world beaters, but you have to have some sort of logic to come up with the single worst record in program history. Are we devoid of talent (no). Did we lose a bunch of starters (no). Do we have an unusually tough schedule (no).

 

[FredJacket]

In the last 40 years, we've never been even close to something like 9-21. You'll find a couple years of 12-18 and 13-16, but those our outliers and still a big difference from 9-21. I'm not here saying we're going to be world beaters, but you have to have some sort of logic to come up with the single worst record in program history. Are we devoid of talent (no). Did we lose a bunch of starters (no). Do we have an unusually tough schedule (no).

I'm pretty sure all his calculations of rankings & predictions are based on results (w factors for home/away & maybe even margin of victory). Nothing involving roster makeup or anything. NW gets a bump for beat Duke (& Tech to an extent) on the road.

Like @GTNavyNuke said... too early in sample size for it to make sense. We aren't going 9-21 in conference with 8 of 10 series being sweeps by us or our opponent.

 

[FredJacket]

http://baseballnews.com/collegiate-baseball-div-1-poll-3-4-19/
I count 7 ACC teams in Collegiate BB top 30.

In top 5: #1FSU, #4UNC, #5NC State

Also, only 4 teams in D1 undefeated: FSU, NC State, Tenn, Ariz St

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Now the real season starts up! Great weekend of ACC baseball coming up:

Best other than ours is probably UNC @ Clemson. I expect UNC pitching to keep the kitties quiet. USCe took the series from Clemson who gave up 24 runs. Clemson scored 4, 11 and 3 runs against USCe so I don't think Clemson has the consistency to win two even at home. Fun to watch as we play both later in the season.

I expect 11-0 FSU to get their first loss of the year to VT. FSU should easily win the series 2-1 or maybe sweep @FSU.

@NCState will sweep Pitt or drop 1 game. 12-0 NCState is for real and swept a decent Minnesota team last weekend.

@L'Ville will sweep BC or drop 1 game. L'Ville pitching is the best in the ACC so far.

@UVa will re-emerge and take 2 from Duke I guess. We'll see how good Duke's pitching really is. I hope not as good as the hype. Mid-week Duke has really struggled. But weekends they have won the NW and Penn State series. So this one definitely looks like no sweep.

@Wake and ND is a toss-up. As in toss-up your meal. No idea who will bumble the most.

 

[FredJacket]

Some (relatively useless) tidbits from 2018 conference action (70 total ACC series):

- There were 0 road series wins in Week#1 of ACC play. Week1 was only weekend where no team won a road series.
- Full ACC schedule there were 26 road series wins...or 37% of the time the road team won a series. (14 of those occurred in 3 week period in April...middle of ACC schedule)
- There were 10 road sweeps (9 of those occurred in 2nd half of ACC schedule). The victims: CLEM, PITTx2,VTx2, UVA, BCx2, NCST, WF

At first, I thought the trends here were strange...why so many more road wins in middle to end of ACC schedule. Here is my theory. Early in schedule you have fewer road winners because the "northern" teams are on road.. those teams are typically weaker (ND, BC, Pitt)... eventually, the middle/end of schedule those teams are at home more (losing there too). No different this year. BC, ND, VT are on road Week 1 and Week 2. Pitt for Week 1.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Some (relatively useless) tidbits from 2018 conference action (70 total ACC series):

- There were 0 road series wins in Week#1 of ACC play. Week1 was only weekend where no team won a road series.
- Full ACC schedule there were 26 road series wins...or 37% of the time the road team won a series. (14 of those occurred in 3 week period in April...middle of ACC schedule)
- There were 10 road sweeps (9 of those occurred in 2nd half of ACC schedule). The victims: CLEM, PITTx2,VTx2, UVA, BCx2, NCST, WF

At first, I thought the trends here were strange...why so many more road wins in middle to end of ACC schedule. Here is my theory. Early in schedule you have fewer road winners because the "northern" teams are on road.. those teams are typically weaker (ND, BC, Pitt)... eventually, the middle/end of schedule those teams are at home more (losing there too). No different this year. BC, ND, VT are on road Week 1 and Week 2. Pitt for Week 1.

Well only 4 ACC games yesterday. Home team won 3 of 4!

FSU has a horseshoe stuck up their butts. Down 6-3 to B 8th, they tie it. Down 8-6 B 10th they win it with 3 HRs. That really has to screw with VTs mind; they've been losers so long and to give it up like that has to hurt. From last year, we know what it feels like to blow leads late. Blown twice in a game has to especially burn.

 

[FredJacket]

I'll call it good news. Coastal division off to a blazing start (tic).
UVA 1-0
GT 1-1
MIA 1-1
VT 1-2
Duke 0-1
Pitt 0-2
UNC 0-2

BTW... For too many reasons to mention, I will never use ACC's website again. It is the worst!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Some (relatively useless) tidbits from 2018 conference action (70 total ACC series):

- There were 0 road series wins in Week#1 of ACC play. Week1 was only weekend where no team won a road series.
- Full ACC schedule there were 26 road series wins...or 37% of the time the road team won a series. (14 of those occurred in 3 week period in April...middle of ACC schedule)
- There were 10 road sweeps (9 of those occurred in 2nd half of ACC schedule). The victims: CLEM, PITTx2,VTx2, UVA, BCx2, NCST, WF

At first, I thought the trends here were strange...why so many more road wins in middle to end of ACC schedule. Here is my theory. Early in schedule you have fewer road winners because the "northern" teams are on road.. those teams are typically weaker (ND, BC, Pitt)... eventually, the middle/end of schedule those teams are at home more (losing there too). No different this year. BC, ND, VT are on road Week 1 and Week 2. Pitt for Week 1.

5 home teams won last weekend; Miami, Clemson, NCState, FSU, L'Ville. Only surprise to me was Clemson - 3-0 over UNC (one balk off loss and another walk off HR loss). So the kitties are for real and UNC may not be Omaha quality. Of course I'm disappointed we didn't do better; but an outside observer would have picked @Miami 2-1.

2 home teams lost last weekend; UVa to Duke, and Wake to ND. No real surprise there; Duke pitching is for real. Wake wasn't a surprise but what is a surprise is the talent they have without the results so far this season .........

@FredJacket - D1 Baseball is worth the yearly price to be able to avoid the ACC Website.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

This weekend two really great matchups on the national scale:

• #7 L'Ville @Duke. These two reportedly have the best weekend starting pitching in the ACC. I'm sure this will be a split series. Hard to call the winner since L'Ville is probably better but @Duke. Guess L'Ville takes the series since I don't like Duke.
• #10 FSU @ undefeated #20 NC State. I think NC State takes the series. But very close to call.

Lesser matchups:

• UM @#15 UNC. UNC takes two or three. Miami wasn't that impressive against us and UNC has to be super pissed about losing a balk off and walk off last week to Clemson.
• ND @ #24 Clemson. Clemson easily takes two, maybe three.
• UVa @GT. See other thread. GT takes two. Nothing of national significance here. My favorite two ACC teams; as @bwelbo says, "sad".
• BC @Wake. BC takes two. There is something wrong in Wake's water.
• VT@Pitt. VT takes two. Pitt is clearly the worst team in the ACC this year.