2018 ACC Baseball

[FredJacket]

Just landed. To keep it simple, we're above 500 in the ACC for the first time this year.

We stay above 500 and we are in the NCAAs. Our starting pitching stays healthy and we are dangerous.

When was the last time we were above 500 in the ACC?

You need to go back until the middle of June .

LOL... @THWG took words out of my mouth.
@GTNavyNuke ...We took up a collection. Is 3 dollars & 14 cents enough to get you back to South America for... well...until ..."further notice" ?

See what I did there? $3.14.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

You need to go back until the middle of June .

No argument here. Hiking mountains of Peru with no Internet access. Glad we didn't declare war on Canada (tic).

 

[FredJacket]

When was the last time we were above 500 in the ACC?

In 2016... we were swept by FSU opening weekend... then got to .500 by sweeping VT the next weekend. After that, we bounced above/below .500.... never more than 1 game over that mark. Lost last 3 ACC series of season... finishing 13-19 in ACC play.

 

[FredJacket]

Looking ahead to ACC Tournament... the format (4 pools of 3 teams each) gives a significant advantage to top seed in each pool. The advantage comes into tiebreaker situation should pool play ends with all 3 teams at 1-1 in their pool. The tiebreaker is the high seed in that pool wins the pool. Therefore, finishing top 4 in ACC is a boost and an advantage to making it to ACC tournament semi-finals. Currently, Ga Tech (8-7) is 5th in the ACC behind:
NCST (11-4)
Duke (10-4)
Clemson (10-5)
UNC (10-5)

Ga Tech, Duke, and UNC all have each other ahead on their respective schedules. Lots of hay to be made. FWIW... here is a way to see how weak (relatively) Duke and UNC's ACC schedule has been so far compared to Ga Tech:
Duke's ACC opponents 30-44 (.405)
UNC's ACC opponents 33-41 (.446)
Ga Tech's opponents record is 42-33 (.560).

All 3 teams have 3 road series and 2 home series left. On paper, Ga Tech's remaining opponents are slightly weaker than both Duke and UNC. The Coastal title is within reach for Ga Tech...the #1 or #2 seed in ACC tourney comes with that. Of course, a top 4 seed is within reach too. Making up the 2 game deficit on both Duke and UNC won't be easy... but sure is nice to have that "reasonable" possibility in play. Especially... nice knowing you control your own destiny at this point; and don't have to rely on other teams...yet.
Duke and Wake wrap up their weekend series tonight. Go Wake!

 

[bensaysitathome]

Looking ahead to ACC Tournament... the format (4 pools of 3 teams each) gives a significant advantage to top seed in each pool. The advantage comes into tiebreaker situation should pool play ends with all 3 teams at 1-1 in their pool. The tiebreaker is the high seed in that pool wins the pool. Therefore, finishing top 4 in ACC is a boost and an advantage to making it to ACC tournament semi-finals. Currently, Ga Tech (8-7) is 5th in the ACC behind:
NCST (11-4)
Duke (10-4)
Clemson (10-5)
UNC (10-5)

Ga Tech, Duke, and UNC all have each other ahead on their respective schedules. Lots of hay to be made. FWIW... here is a way to see how weak (relatively) Duke and UNC's ACC schedule has been so far compared to Ga Tech:
Duke's ACC opponents 30-44 (.405)
UNC's ACC opponents 33-41 (.446)
Ga Tech's opponents record is 42-33 (.560).

All 3 teams have 3 road series and 2 home series left. On paper, Ga Tech's remaining opponents are slightly weaker than both Duke and UNC. The Coastal title is within reach for Ga Tech...the #1 or #2 seed in ACC tourney comes with that. Of course, a top 4 seed is within reach too. Making up the 2 game deficit on both Duke and UNC won't be easy... but sure is nice to have that "reasonable" possibility in play. Especially... nice knowing you control your own destiny at this point; and don't have to rely on other teams...yet.
Duke and Wake wrap up their weekend series tonight. Go Wake!

We have 15 games left. Think 9-6 in those games gets us to top 4?

That leaves us at 17-13, and hopefully at least 2 of those wins are at Duke's expense.

 

[FredJacket]

We have 15 games left. Think 9-6 in those games gets us to top 4?

That leaves us at 17-13, and hopefully at least 2 of those wins are at Duke's expense.

The million dollar question right now, isn't it?

2015: 17-13 was good enough. #3 and #4 posted that mark. #5 was 16-13 (one game cancelled..so had that been a win, you're into a tiebreaker deal to figure out seeds).
2016: 17-13 was not good enough. #4 (FSU) was 16-10 and #5 was 16-14. (note: a few reg season games cancelled that year due to weather...I think FSU would have made it to 17-13 if they played those cancelled games)
2017: 17-13 was not good enough. #4 was 18-12 and #5 was 17-13.

As for 2018... I believe if Ga Tech gets to 18-12, it is nearly a slam dunk top 4 seed. It seems the conference records are going to be more bunched up than normal... but still a little early to say that. If that does indeed happen, 17-13 could be a top 4 (with the increased likelihood multiple teams hit 17-13..creating tiebreaker scenarios for seeding). Again...for Ga Tech's situation if they end up 17-13 AND win both UNC and Duke series... then 17-13 likely is good enough.

 

[bensaysitathome]

The million dollar question right now, isn't it?

2015: 17-13 was good enough. #3 and #4 posted that mark. #5 was 16-13 (one game cancelled..so had that been a win, you're into a tiebreaker deal to figure out seeds).
2016: 17-13 was not good enough. #4 (FSU) was 16-10 and #5 was 16-14. (note: a few reg season games cancelled that year due to weather...I think FSU would have made it to 17-13 if they played those cancelled games)
2017: 17-13 was not good enough. #4 was 18-12 and #5 was 17-13.

As for 2018... I believe if Ga Tech gets to 18-12, it is nearly a slam dunk top 4 seed. It seems the conference records are going to be more bunched up than normal... but still a little early to say that. If that does indeed happen, 17-13 could be a top 4 (with the increased likelihood multiple teams hit 17-13..creating tiebreaker scenarios for seeding). Again...for Ga Tech's situation if they end up 17-13 AND win both UNC and Duke series... then 17-13 likely is good enough.

Winning both UNC and Duke seems tough. I think 3-3 total between those two series is more likely, but hey, let's enjoy working out the scenarios while we still can. Being this close is fun.

 

[senoiajacket]

I am hoping for a “best (realistic) case” scenario of 10-5 with wins @ Pitt (3), @NC (1), Wake (2), @ VA(2), Duke (2). That would get us to 18-12. A lot has to go right for that to happen, but given the last two weekends we see that’s it really is possible for a lot of good things to happen to GT BASEBALL. Hope this team isn’t building confidence and can extend that by playing well on the road this weekend.

Pitt has been swept once this year (@NC). Duke took 2 of 3 @ Pitt and lost the other by a run.

 

[FredJacket]

I am hoping for a “best (realistic) case” scenario of 10-5 with wins @ Pitt (3), @NC (1), Wake (2), @ VA(2), Duke (2). That would get us to 18-12. A lot has to go right for that to happen, but given the last two weekends we see that’s it really is possible for a lot of good things to happen to GT BASEBALL. Hope this team isn’t building confidence and can extend that by playing well on the road this weekend.

Pitt has been swept once this year (@NC). Duke took 2 of 3 @ Pitt and lost the other by a run.

I apologize (in advance) to those who find these scenario posts exhausting... I'm the opposite. I enjoy it.

Not sure if this bursts your bubble or not.. but there has been only ONE team to achieve the elusive ACC road sweep this year. NCST over Clemson. That's 1 out of 35 series. Having said that... Ga Tech getting a sweep at Pitt is more likely (to me) than Clemson getting swept by NCST (which already happened). ...other ways to g0 10-5 that seem as reasonable as yours...and as you implied, none of this will be easy:
1) Win each remaining series (2-1); or
2) Same as yours but sweep WF at home and go 2-1 at Pitt.

While we're on it... I expect UVA to slowly (or quickly) get better. They've had some injuries... and just think they are so well coached, the replacements will start to figure stuff out AND I believe they expect one of their 'biggest' losses (McCarthy) to be playing again by the time we go up there.

 

[senoiajacket]

I apologize (in advance) to those who find these scenario posts exhausting... I'm the opposite. I enjoy it.

Not sure if this bursts your bubble or not.. but there has been only ONE team to achieve the elusive ACC road sweep this year. NCST over Clemson. That's 1 out of 35 series. Having said that... Ga Tech getting a sweep at Pitt is more likely (to me) than Clemson getting swept by NCST (which already happened). ...other ways to g0 10-5 that seem as reasonable as yours...and as you implied, none of this will be easy:
1) Win each remaining series (2-1); or
2) Same as yours but sweep WF at home and go 2-1 at Pitt.

While we're on it... I expect UVA to slowly (or quickly) get better. They've had some injuries... and just think they are so well coached, the replacements will start to figure stuff out AND I believe they expect one of their 'biggest' losses (McCarthy) to be playing again by the time we go up there.

Yep, it is a really tall order. With 2-1 you get one “aw s***” game. 3-0 Gives no room for error.

I share your concern about UVA. I haven’t studied their roster or season much, but based on history assume that they have plenty of talent & am concerned that they will start to figure it out at the “wrong” time. Wish the schedule makers would have given us that series first and the Clemson series where that one was.

 

[MWBATL]

I share your concern about UVA. I haven’t studied their roster or season much, but based on history assume that they have plenty of talent & am concerned that they will start to figure it out at the “wrong” time. Wish the schedule makers would have given us that series first and the Clemson series where that one was.

I respect UVa in baseball and agree that series worries me. I can EASILY see us losing that series as the 'Hoos regain their mojo late in the year...it's at home for them, and they will be tuning up for the ACC Tournament which right now likes like their ONLY path to post-season play......I am just hoping we can get one stellar pitching performance and steal one of the three games.

I am also secretly hoping we can sweep Pitt. The weather won't be yankee cold (we play horrid in cold weather) and we are playing well right now......here's hoping.

 

[MWBATL]

Well, Wake Forest knocked off Duke last night, so both UNC and Duke are 10-5 leaving us 2 games back with both of them still on our schedule.

This weekend will be big for this team.....we have seen our season go off the rails in prior years during road series against supposedly weaker ACC teams (Notre Dame, Pitt, even BC).....and we have been poor on the road this year in general (1-5 in the ACC and the most recent loss to UGa). You wonder how much of that is in guys’ heads.

 

[FredJacket]

Well, Wake Forest knocked off Duke last night, so both UNC and Duke are 10-5 leaving us 2 games back with both of them still on our schedule.

This weekend will be big for this team.....we have seen our season go off the rails in prior years during road series against supposedly weaker ACC teams (Notre Dame, Pitt, even BC).....and we have been poor on the road this year in general (1-5 in the ACC and the most recent loss to UGa). You wonder how much of that is in guys’ heads.

Hopefully... this tweet/link works. I'm going on memory... but this was English after losing on that Sunday at NC State... a few minutes after 'establishing' that 1-5 record on the road this year in ACC play. I love what he says, his body language, and his confidence. I especially love it now that we've gone 5-1 in ACC play since then. I think his words were something to the effect.. "...we'll bury teams" in the future. He was correct (for home games). Time to continue that trend on the road.

 

[FredJacket]

There are 6 ACC teams at 6-9 or worse): Louisville, UVA, VT, Pitt, ND, BC

I'm going out on a limb and predicting Louisville will be the biggest mover (up) in the ACC standings. They have lost only 2 game OOC. I thought Ga Tech had a challenging 1st half schedule. Look at how Louisville got to 6-9:
UNC (2-1)
@ WF (1-2)
CLEM (1-2)
@ FSU (1-2)
NCST (1-2)

Then look at their way ahead (all 5 of these teams are 6-9 or 5-10):
@ VT
UVA
@ BC
@ PITT
ND

 

[GTNavyNuke]

My thoughts:

• GT@Pitt: GT wins 2. "Should" win 3 but it's a road series and we aren't consistent enough. And this assumes we have English back.
• Fluke @ FSU. This weekend we are going to see Fluke fluke out and be swept by FSU. Fluke has had an easy ACC schedule so far and gets top 25 teams the last 4 of 5 weekends.
• Wake @BC: Wake wins 2.
• L'ville @ VT: L'Ville sweeps. L'Ville due to get hot as others have said.
• UNC @ UVa: Damn I don't know. I hope UVa wins the series. But both teams are more talented overall and more inconsistent than we are.
• Miami @ Clemson: Clemson takes 2.
• ND @ NC State: NC State wins series taking 2. Hope they take all three though.

 

[MWBATL]

My thoughts:

• GT@Pitt: GT wins 2. "Should" win 3 but it's a road series and we aren't consistent enough. And this assumes we have English back.
• Fluke @ FSU. This weekend we are going to see Fluke fluke out and be swept by FSU. Fluke has had an easy ACC schedule so far and gets top 25 teams the last 4 of 5 weekends.
• Wake @BC: Wake wins 2.
• L'ville @ VT: L'Ville sweeps. L'Ville due to get hot as others have said.
• UNC @ UVa: Damn I don't know. I hope UVa wins the series. But both teams are more talented overall and more inconsistent than we are.
• Miami @ Clemson: Clemson takes 2.
• ND @ NC State: NC State wins series taking 2. Hope they take all three though.

Friday night action that affects our chances to finish in the ACC top Four:

NC State (11-4 pending tonight's game with ND), Clemson (about to be 11-5 as they lead Miami 11-3 in the 8th) and now Duke (11-5) all lead the way in the top 3 spots.
UVa defeated UNC 4-0, so we GT (9-7) is now one game behind UNC (10-6)
Duke whipped FSU in Tallahassee 7-1 (scoring 4 in the 9th) to move to 11-5 on the year, and dropping FSU a game behind us to 8-8
Wake Forest is in the process of sweeping a double header from BC to more to 9-8 in league play, right on our heels.
Louisville is also 2 games behind us after getting the tying run in the 8th and ago ahead homer in the 9th (sound familiar?) to beat VPI&SU. The Cards are now 7-9.
Assuming Wake First and Clemson hold on to late leads in their games, the standings would look like this:

NC State 11-4 (trailing ND at 8-11 late in their game)
Clemson 11-5
Duke 11-5
UNC 10-6
GT 9-7
Wake Forest 9-8
FSU 7-9
Miami 7-9
Virginia 7-9
Louisville 7-9
Pitt 6-10
VPI&SU 6-10
ND 5-10
BC 5-13

Just keep winning Jackets!

 

[FredJacket]

Friday night action that affects our chances to finish in the ACC top Four:

NC State (11-4 pending tonight's game with ND), Clemson (about to be 11-5 as they lead Miami 11-3 in the 8th) and now Duke (11-5) all lead the way in the top 3 spots.
UVa defeated UNC 4-0, so we GT (9-7) is now one game behind UNC (10-6)
Duke whipped FSU in Tallahassee 7-1 (scoring 4 in the 9th) to move to 11-5 on the year, and dropping FSU a game behind us to 8-8
Wake Forest is in the process of sweeping a double header from BC to more to 9-8 in league play, right on our heels.
Louisville is also 2 games behind us after getting the tying run in the 8th and ago ahead homer in the 9th (sound familiar?) to beat VPI&SU. The Cards are now 7-9.
Assuming Wake First and Clemson hold on to late leads in their games, the standings would look like this:

NC State 11-4 (trailing ND at 8-11 late in their game)
Clemson 11-5
Duke 11-5
UNC 10-6
GT 9-7
Wake Forest 9-8
FSU 7-9
Miami 7-9
Virginia 7-9
Louisville 7-9
Pitt 6-10
VPI&SU 6-10
ND 5-10
BC 5-13

Just keep winning Jackets!

Miami came from way behind & prevailed in 12 innings over Clemson. Here are standings as of this Sat morning (4/14):
NCST 11-5
DUKE 11-5
UNC 10-5
CLEM 10-5
GT 9-7
WF 9-8
FSU 8-8
MIA 8-8
UVA 7-9
LOU 7-9
VT 6-10
ND 6-10
PITT 6-10
BC 5-12

Just keep winning Jackets. All opponents ahead are in the mix.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Miami came from way behind & prevailed in 12 innings over Clemson. Here are standings as of this Sat morning (4/14):
NCST 11-5
DUKE 11-5
UNC 10-5
CLEM 10-5
GT 9-7
WF 9-8
FSU 8-8
MIA 8-8
UVA 7-9
LOU 7-9
VT 6-10
ND 6-10
PITT 6-10
BC 5-12

Just keep winning Jackets. All opponents ahead are in the mix.

You forgot to put Clemson’s and UNC’s losses from last night in there. They’re both sitting at 10-6. Wow on the Miami comeback...I had stopped paying attention to that score.

Duke is legit. They had several guys really do well in the Cape Cod league last summer. It’ll be interesting to see if they can win the series at FSU or even sweep.

We really need a sweep this weekend to keep getting us closer to one of those top 4 spots with some tough series’ coming up in our schedule.

 

[FredJacket]

You forgot to put Clemson’s and UNC’s losses from last night in there. They’re both sitting at 10-6. Wow on the Miami comeback...I had stopped paying attention to that score.

Duke is legit. They had several guys really do well in the Cape Cod league last summer. It’ll be interesting to see if they can win the series at FSU or even sweep.

We really need a sweep this weekend to keep getting us closer to one of those top 4 spots with some tough series’ coming up in our schedule.

Yep! Left those losses out. Thank you. Top 4 is going to be very tough.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Nice D1 description of clemsoning:
"Clemson: The clear runner-up to Houston in the blown lead department is Clemson, which allowed eight runs to Miami in the top of the ninth to send the game to extra innings. There, the two teams traded zeroes for two innings before the Hurricanes took a 12-11 lead in the 12th inning on a Freddy Zamora RBI single. That hit capped off a big night for Zamora, who tallied four hits and knocked in three runs."

Clemson was very lucky to win so many one run games early in the season. Probabilities are evening out

Yes I hate Fluke. Hope they lose every game for the rest of the season. But they are probably better than I thought. What's wrong with FSU this year?