2017 ACC schedule

[MikeJackets]

Kind of tangentially related...A guy I went to high school with was on Saban's staff when he first got there, and he shared a funny story that they'd have a staff pickup basketball game and that they could never end until Saban's team won. So they'd play on and on and on and on....

I think Saban will have to go out on a high note. He's way too competitive. I hope that Bowden's tale is cautionary to Saban though, and gets how before he turns the villain (though from where we are today, I can't see that happening. He could run for Governor, no, President and sweep the state easily)

I could see him running for Governor of Alabama after retirement.

 

[B Lifsey]

I could see him running for Governor of Alabama after retirement.

Why would he take a demotion to a position with less pay and power?

 

[jacketup]

The ACC screwing us on schedule (and other things) is not new. I was closer to the program during the Homer Rice era, and scheduling was something O' Leary complained about-for good reason.

I admit I don't get all the ACC rah-rah from Tech fans. The ACC is not a fan of GT. I was really hoping we would somehow get into the B1G during expansion, but that won't happen now.

South Carolina was always the red headed step child of the ACC, and we took their place in more ways than one.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

I am not sure I would go that far. Make no mistake, they go all out to win, and have a curriculum for everyone. But with Swinney anyway Clemson is one of the schools that has a program in place to bring back those players short of a degree and who meet certain requirements (it is not open-ended, three year type of stuff) and with donor funding and IPTAY funding, pay for some period of time to finish. Swinney himself is very determined about it and last year brought back a former Clemson baseball player/punter who was for 13 years a major league baseball shortstop. Made him a football GA and insisted he get the degree. I will be curious to see if he helps Swinney with his little league team. Wouldn't that be awesome for a 12-year-old?

You have lost me.....or maybe I lost you first. I was simply referring to fanbase size, biggest programs in their respective states, and how fired up each was....and thus the slight edge in crowd size for Clem.

 

[Skeptic]

Kind of tangentially related...A guy I went to high school with was on Saban's staff when he first got there, and he shared a funny story that they'd have a staff pickup basketball game and that they could never end until Saban's team won. So they'd play on and on and on and on....

I think Saban will have to go out on a high note. He's way too competitive. I hope that Bowden's tale is cautionary to Saban though, and gets how before he turns the villain (though from where we are today, I can't see that happening. He could run for Governor, no, President and sweep the state easily)

As short as Saban is I can see them playing all night to win.

 

[Skeptic]

I could see him running for Governor of Alabama after retirement.

He might be cut out for that grifter's life. There was a story going around after the first Alabama-Clemson NC game, with both coaches making all the rounds and playing kiss-kiss before the game that Saban had told an interviwer what great friends he and Swinney were, and that just "recently" they had gone fishing together. Swinney told somebody later he had never fished with Saban in his life.

 

[GTpdm]

UNC has had a BYE before playing us in 5 out of the 9 years Johnson has been coach.

Well, factoring in 2017 (CPJ's 10th in the ACC), that would be five times in ten years. If you construct a simplified model of conference scheduling, in which every team gets one bye against a conference opponent each year (and keep in mind--this overestimates the actual number of in-conference byes), then the likelihood of one team getting a bye against a particular divisional opponent is (1/8). Extrapolate that over 10 seasons, and you get the likelihood of a team getting 5+ byes against against the same divisional opponent to be 0.44%. With a 14-team conference, the likelihood that one team in the conference has that happen to them over a 10-year period is thus 6.2%. In other words, it would happen only once in a 16-decade stretch.

...yeah, right Swofford...it's just random chance...

 

[Skeptic]

Well, factoring in 2017 (CPJ's 10th in the ACC), that would be five times in ten years. If you construct a simplified model of conference scheduling, in which every team gets one bye against a conference opponent each year (and keep in mind--this overestimates the actual number of in-conference byes), then the likelihood of one team getting a bye against a particular divisional opponent is (1/8). Extrapolate that over 10 seasons, and you get the likelihood of a team getting 5+ byes against against the same divisional opponent to be 0.44%. With a 14-team conference, the likelihood that one team in the conference has that happen to them over a 10-year period is thus 6.2%. In other words, it would happen only once in a 16-decade stretch.

...yeah, right Swofford...it's just random chance...

I confess, my carefully held secret has been outed. I love it when geeks talk dirty.

 

[UgaBlows]

I don't think any "name" coach is going to be too eager to be the next Bama coach after Saban

 

[a5ehren]

I don't think any "name" coach is going to be too eager to be the next Bama coach after Saban

If they pay $5M/yr or whatever Saban is getting by then, someone will take it.

You could bomb hard and never need to work again...minimum $25M in your pocket.

 

[Skeptic]

I don't think any "name" coach is going to be too eager to be the next Bama coach after Saban

You might be hard pressed to find a really successful successor to a powerful football coach. Fisher at FSU is now, and he had the good fortune if you will to take a program that had deteriorated, so maybe that is not the same. Seems the program has to get one coach removed to come back.

 

[Skeptic]

If they pay $5M/yr or whatever Saban is getting by then, someone will take it.

You could bomb hard and never need to work again...minimum $25M in your pocket.

The difficulty to that reasoning is that the competitive nature of the coaches is not considered. I hate the money they make, but the truth is those in it just for the money aren't successful enough to get that kind of money in the first place. Besides which you know you have taxes, agent's fees, charitable obligations, the beach house in NC or Florida or both and the lake house, the boat, jet skis, and pretty soon you're down to your last million.

 

[presjacket]

Well, factoring in 2017 (CPJ's 10th in the ACC), that would be five times in ten years. If you construct a simplified model of conference scheduling, in which every team gets one bye against a conference opponent each year (and keep in mind--this overestimates the actual number of in-conference byes), then the likelihood of one team getting a bye against a particular divisional opponent is (1/8). Extrapolate that over 10 seasons, and you get the likelihood of a team getting 5+ byes against against the same divisional opponent to be 0.44%. With a 14-team conference, the likelihood that one team in the conference has that happen to them over a 10-year period is thus 6.2%. In other words, it would happen only once in a 16-decade stretch.

...yeah, right Swofford...it's just random chance...

Should a chi-squared test be performed to determine if the observed occurrence is significantly varied outside the projected likelihood of occurrence?

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Should a chi-squared test be performed to determine if the observed occurrence is significantly varied outside the projected likelihood of occurrence?

How many other fan sites has this question ever been posted?

 

[MikeJackets]

How many other fan sites has this question ever been posted?

Y'all could get into a debate about that with Alums of Cal Poly and MIT.

 

[a5ehren]

The difficulty to that reasoning is that the competitive nature of the coaches is not considered. I hate the money they make, but the truth is those in it just for the money aren't successful enough to get that kind of money in the first place. Besides which you know you have taxes, agent's fees, charitable obligations, the beach house in NC or Florida or both and the lake house, the boat, jet skis, and pretty soon you're down to your last million.

Eh. These guys also have huge egos and probably think they could take it on no problem.

And Saban will probably leave a ton of talent, so you can win fast and get an extension without too much work.

 

[GTpdm]

Should a chi-squared test be performed to determine if the observed occurrence is significantly varied outside the projected likelihood of occurrence?

Just for fun, I might do that, some time this weekend...but I'm pretty sure I already know the answer. Just tinkering with the 2008-2011 schedules (so far), I found that in a given season about half the teams (on average) had at least one opponent with a bye in the week immediately before they played. If you take as your null hypothesis the idea that these byes are randomly distributed, then the probability that it would happen to a team every year for a decade straight would be (1/2)^10 = 1 in 1024. That is, the p-value for that event is 0.00098--which is usually extreme enough to reject the null hypothesis.

Of course, that doesn't mean that the byes are distributed "with malice", just that they are very probably not distributed randomly. (I'm not even sure we want it "random"--we want it to be fair.) It could be that the ACC's scheduling algorithm is introducing these artifacts because it is not sufficiently robust to deal with things like Thursday games, or non-conference rivalry games on set dates (GT, Clempson, FSU, and Louisville all have this issue).

Maybe they need to search around for a school with a top-flight Systems Engineering program, no optimize their scheduling process...

 

[Skeptic]

How many other fan sites has this question ever been posted?

To hell with that. I wanna know how many times it has been answered.

 

[Skeptic]

Eh. These guys also have huge egos and probably think they could take it on no problem.

And Saban will probably leave a ton of talent, so you can win fast and get an extension without too much work.

You may be right. Except, and what I hear is kinda second hand but I have heard it several times now, the atmosphere around that staff is toxic. Maybe deliberately so from the top. And let's face it, as several SEC schools have found -- our dear friends over at Georgia being amongst them -- Saban talent is not Saban coaching. It occurs to me the Urban Meyer Florida Effect could be put in play: I'm outta here, and I don't want to be shown up, so empty the cupboard. And I for one think that was deliberate.

 

[Eastman]

How many other fan sites has this question ever been posted?

Don't ask questions like that! Someone will go out and find the answer. Anyway, I would apply Fisher's exact test instead