2017 ACC Baseball

[FredJacket]

I'm going with pulling for ND vs Duke and then "planning" on us taking care of bidness against the Dookies. Mainly because we already blew our chance w/ ND but somewhat control our destinity w Duke.

I always pull for Tech to win & put themselves in the best possible position, but there is a part of me that feels like we are better off if we don't make the ACC tournament (this is completely from a fans perspective). Unless things change (and there has been little to indicate they will) we have no shot of making any noise in the tournament , so it will be just another disappointing waste of time. I am trying not to think that way, but there is a little guy on my shoulder who keeps telling me that. Anyone else admit to that?

I get a huge kick out of 'fan talk' like this. Thank you for your honesty. I am not wired this way, but you are not alone. I definitely want us to make the ACC tournament. Your assessment (i.e. inevitable disappointment) cannot be argued based on performance so far this year. We will play at least one game against the elite in the conference and a 2nd game against "another team"... complicating matters more, it could be a game against Louisville and the tournament is IN LOUISVILLE. Yikes!

My position always rests on the fact that we're talking about games "to be played" not games we've already screwed up. Therefore... I always feel like there is a CHANCE.. if we're in the field. I'd much rather see us get the opportunity. Plus... I'm a softy too. These are kids (by my definition)...really...the same age as my own children. I want "my team's kids" to get these opportunities to travel and participate in the conference tournament. Despite all my angst over this team's less than impressive performance in 2017... I still want them to 'enjoy' every success. At this point in the season, they need to dig out of this hole they find themselves in in order to do that. ...and I actually think they will.

 

[THWG]

I'm going with pulling for ND vs Duke and then "planning" on us taking care of bidness against the Dookies. Mainly because we already blew our chance w/ ND but somewhat control our destinity w Duke.

I always pull for Tech to win & put themselves in the best possible position, but there is a part of me that feels like we are better off if we don't make the ACC tournament (this is completely from a fans perspective). Unless things change (and there has been little to indicate they will) we have no shot of making any noise in the tournament , so it will be just another disappointing waste of time. I am trying not to think that way, but there is a little guy on my shoulder who keeps telling me that. Anyone else admit to that?

I want this team to make the ACC tournament and even if they are blown out in those two games, at least the young pitchers will get some tournament experience and that will hopefully bode well for next year. This is how I'm looking at the rest of the year.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

......there is a part of me that feels like we are better off if we don't make the ACC tournament (this is completely from a fans perspective). Unless things change (and there has been little to indicate they will) we have no shot of making any noise in the tournament , so it will be just another disappointing waste of time. I am trying not to think that way, but there is a little guy on my shoulder who keeps telling me that. Anyone else admit to that?

I agree on one level since I like to minimize my pain and watching GT play is giving me pain this year. The sooner we are done playing the sooner I can ignore college baseball entirely. Till then, I can't.

We have been really bad this year in most categories outside of hitting. I looked at the NCAA stats on a weekly basis trying to find some sign of improvement in the last month for pitching ERA. It wasn't there. While some guys have been pitching better in games, we seem to have enough pitchers blow up (and not get pulled quick enough) that the ERA has stayed around 5.3. The recent (before UGAg debacle) was 5.31. The weeks before that going back in time were 5.49, 5.57, 5.43, 5.08 and 4.75. We are 193rd out of 300 in pitching ERA. That is unacceptable for an ACC team.

Also our fielding sucks with us being at 148th out of 300. With bad pitching and fielding, we won't make any noise. Maybe it will get better. And maybe Trump will change at 70 years old.

I want this team to make the ACC tournament and even if they are blown out in those two games, at least the young pitchers will get some tournament experience and that will hopefully bode well for next year. This is how I'm looking at the rest of the year.

I agree entirely with this too. And to go along with it, pitch Ryan as little as possible since he won't be around next year and has blown up his MLB draft chances with a 3.79 ERA in 35.2 IP. (King and Parr are the other senior pitchers but they aren't in action.)

 

[FredJacket]

Duke & ND are done. ND takes series 2-1. After 24 ACC games:
ND 10-14
Duke 9-15

Duke's next ACC series is against the Jackets in Durham in 2 weekends. Our next 2 series are HUGE. Can pass Pitt & Duke by our own accord over those 6 ACC games.

ND is reaching untouchable status now... along with NCST (assuming they beat VT at least one more time this weekend to get to 10 wins too).

However, if we can manage to keep our pitching going in right direction... I like our chances (post-exams) to get to 11 wins (my assumed safe place to be in ACC field). Getting past 2 of: BC, VT, Pitt, & Duke.

Let's GO!!!!

 

[FredJacket]

Duke & ND are done. ND takes series 2-1. After 24 ACC games:
ND 10-14
Duke 9-15

Duke's next ACC series is against the Jackets in Durham in 2 weekends. Our next 2 series are HUGE. Can pass Pitt & Duke by our own accord over those 6 ACC games.

ND is reaching untouchable status now... along with NCST (assuming they beat VT at least one more time this weekend to get to 10 wins too).

However, if we can manage to keep our pitching going in right direction... I like our chances (post-exams) to get to 11 wins (my assumed safe place to be in ACC field). Getting past 2 of: BC, VT, Pitt, & Duke.

Let's GO!!!!

 

[FredJacket]

May is upon us. The ACC tournament is later this month. Seems to me there are now 5 teams fighting to 'not be' bottom 2:
GT 6-15 (Pitt; @Duke; UVA)
BC 7-17 (@WF; ND)
VT 8-16 (UNC; @Mia)
Duke 9-15 (GT; @UNC)
Pitt 8-13 (@GT; NCST; @WF)

Seems VT and BC are hurting the most. My feeling is these 2 teams will not make the ACC tournament.

-VT gets UNC in Blacksburg. UNC is HOT. 13-2 over last 5 series including 2 road sweeps (@FSU and @BC). With UNC's pitching.. look out for them to really go deep in the post-season. VT should be easy pickin's.
-BC only has 2 series left. WF has much to play for... potentially finishing ACC season in top 3-4 and securing a regional/super-regional bid. BC hosts ND to finish season. ...but gotta consider Boston is Notre Dame's home away from home.
-Duke plays Ga Tech in Durham.. they (like us) will be desperate. Should find out (head-to-head) who the better team is.
-Pitt will hopefully struggle on the road in Atlanta this coming weekend because: 1) Ga Tech will be rested and IMPROVING...post exams; 2) Pitt is worn down a little from 2 mid-week games.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Since I'm going through GT baseball withdrawal, I was just getting delusional thinking what if we won the next 9 ACC games? I need some reality based therapy to get rid of that idea but there is none in sight till Saturday night. But we are 57 in RPI and if we made it to 500 in the ACC ........

Clemsoning anyone? Enough pain to go around, that's for sure. https://d1baseball.com/analysis/ouch-list-may-1st/

"– CLEMSON
What Happened: Swept in three at North Carolina
Why It Hurts: Because someone out there will unfairly bring up the phrase “Clemsoning”
Okay granted, this IS three losses to an in-conference, high-ranked rival. But how much of an “Ouch” is this? Even though the Tigers lost all three games at UNC, their RPI isn’t going to drop out of the top eight and they’re still in fine shape to become a National Seed as long as they don’t totally tank it from here. Then again, the Heels managed to post THREE come-from-behind wins in the late innings. Friday’s game saw UNC score five runs in the seventh inning to win 5-1. Saturday’s game saw Clemson blow a 4-1 lead, giving up four runs in the eighth inning to lose 5-4. Then Sunday, I got this from the Dr. of College Baseball, who was at the getaway game at Boshamer Stadium…

“Two of UNC’s three runs were unearned (and all three should have been). All three runs were driven in by Tyler Lynn. UNC scored in the fourth when CU second baseman Jordan Greene missed a relay throw that probably would have resulted in an inning ending double play, and then Lynn grounded out to drive in a run from third. In the sixth Grayson Byrd committed a two-out error that kept the inning alive for an RBI single from Lynn. The winning run scored in the 10th when Greene threw a two-out chopper wide of first base with a man on third. I saw later the play was scored a single for Lynn but it really was a makable play that should have been an error.”"

 

[FredJacket]

Since I'm going through GT baseball withdrawal, I was just getting delusional thinking what if we won the next 9 ACC games? I need some reality based therapy to get rid of that idea but there is none in sight till Saturday night. But we are 57 in RPI and if we made it to 500 in the ACC ........

Delusional... yet, possible. ...but quite delusional.

 

[awbuzz]

Hey, until/if we lose a game, the possibility exists to win the next 9 ACC games! Until then, dream big... just don't bet the mortgage on it.

 

[MWBATL]

Hey, until/if we lose a game, the possibility exists to win the next 9 ACC games! Until then, dream big... just don't bet the mortgage on it.

Got to win 2 in a row (which we haven't done all year in the league) before you can think about winning 9 in a row!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Got to win 2 in a row (which we haven't done all year in the league) before you can think about winning 9 in a row!

After three more beers, I be there! Seriously, the best reason I think I am getting optimistic is I haven't had to face reality since last Friday.

But there should be a reasonable chance to sweep Pitt (~40%) and maybe @Duke (~35%). But UVa is probably <10%. We just don't have the pitching depth that UVa has.

 

[65Jacket]

Plus we can't hit the pitching that Uva has.

 

[FredJacket]

After three more beers, I be there! Seriously, the best reason I think I am getting optimistic is I haven't had to face reality since last Friday.

But there should be a reasonable chance to sweep Pitt (~40%) and maybe @Duke (~35%). But UVa is probably <10%. We just don't have the pitching depth that UVa has.

Plus we can't hit the pitching that Uva has.

We need to be secure in our ACC position before that UVA series. We control that to a large extent.

 

[FredJacket]

Very light ACC schedule this weekend:
Pitt (8-13) @ Ga Tech (6-15): Tech needs to sweep. Two wins keeps hope alive. One or none...we won't talk about that scenario.
BC (7-17) @ WF (13-8): Wake can bury any chance BC has to make ACC Tourney.
LOU (17-4) @ ND (10-14): ND just needs 1 or 2 more wins over their final 6 conference games to solidify a spot in the tournament. ...but Louisville is a dominant team.

Quite a few (WF, Duke, UNC, UVA, VT) teams actually choose to take a weekend off here late in the season. I assume all around their final exams. Wake was off last weekend and the other 4 will take this weekend off. Wonder what goes into that scheduling decision for all teams.

 

[FredJacket]

Latest projections for NCAA Tournament field with 7 ACC teams in. I'd say 1st out is Miami and they could get in with a strong finish making it 8 ACC teams in the tournament. I cannot see the ACC getting more than 8 in this year. https://d1baseball.com/projections/field-64-projection-may-3/

Projected national seeds:
#2 UNC
#5 Louisville
#6 Clemson

Regional host:
Wake Forest
UVA

Others in field:
NCST
FSU

 

[FredJacket]

Friday results all good for Tech...
BC & ND lose.

 

[MWBATL]

Friday results all good for Tech...
BC & ND lose.

Not sure ND matters much to us and our chances...they have already proven on the field they are a better team than we are (and that was when we still had Shadday).

As far as the rest of our season goes, we might get better performances out of our pitching against weaker teams, but that has almost no impact on how those same pitchers, pitching the same way, would do against the elite teams. You can shut out an Illinois-Chicago and still get slammed by a top flight ACC or SEC team. It is not that the pitching was any worse or better, it is the difference in the opposition.

What I see with out pitching is that they get afraid to throw strikes against good teams, largely because the strikes they throw get hit, hard. Zac Ryan is a perfect example of this. When he doesn't fear getting hammered, he throws strikes fearlessly, daring the other team to hit him. When he gives up hits, he fears giving up more hits and tries to "hit the corners" and winds up missing, sometimes disastrously so. But this happens more or less to all our pitchers, not just Zac.

Maybe we just don't have good enough pitchers. It's not like we have had a ton of our pitchers make it in pro ball. Maybe we are recruiting the wrong kids, or maybe we screw them up when we get them into the program, I don't know.

 

[FredJacket]

@MWBATL Yep. ND is probably out of reach. Your assessment of the pitching is supported by all the evidence.

I just want to see improvement even with a handful of games left... granted it's against lesser competition.

 

[Squints]

Maybe we just don't have good enough pitchers. It's not like we have had a ton of our pitchers make it in pro ball. Maybe we are recruiting the wrong kids, or maybe we screw them up when we get them into the program, I don't know.

Here's another theory I've been thinking about that no one seems to talk about. Everyone talks about how great the local amateur talent is down there in Georgia. We should be in the hunt for the College World Series every year some say. We these guys we can just roll the ball onto the field and waltz into the Super Regionals no problem. Well, maybe local Georgia amateur talent is just overrated. What team predominately made up of these supposedly amazing Georgia kids is tearing it up right now? I don't really see one and haven't for years.

And a sidebar to that, I feel like every pitcher we get from East Cobb (which feels like most of our staff) gets hurt. Like blown out arm hurt. Maybe we should be asking ourselves what they're doing to these kids.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Here's another theory I've been thinking about that no one seems to talk about. Everyone talks about how great the local amateur talent is down there in Georgia. We should be in the hunt for the College World Series every year some say. We these guys we can just roll the ball onto the field and waltz into the Super Regionals no problem. Well, maybe local Georgia amateur talent is just overrated. What team predominately made up of these supposedly amazing Georgia kids is tearing it up right now? I don't really see one and haven't for years.

And a sidebar to that, I feel like every pitcher we get from East Cobb (which feels like most of our staff) gets hurt. Like blown out arm hurt. Maybe we should be asking ourselves what they're doing to these kids.

Here are the raw numbers of players drafted all time by state. No wonder Florida and California and Texas college teams have done so well: http://mlb.mlb.com/assets/images/5/...t_Best_Players_060815_2_1xawfxk3_31f7lgt3.jpg

I went to Baseball Cube to see the number of players from Georgia drafted in the last four years versus the entire country. When I was looking at the list, I also realized (again) that the draft takes most of the best players out of HS. So I'll put the spin on Georgia talent that given the lower K-12 educational rankings in the state compared to say California or Florida, that those states probably have more kids go on to college.