2015 MLB Draft - 8-10 June

[GTNavyNuke]

This will be in two parts, first some data and some of my conclusions. Then later discussion of our GT player draft chances in the 8-10 June 2015 draft.

This data is a sort of the drafted players who have ever played in the MLB. It is the last 100 players drafted (2011 to 2014) with a second sort by draft order. Data from http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/research.asp

For example, Carlos Rodon is the only player drafted last year who is currently playing. He plays for the White Sox, drafted in 2014 from NC State (out of College) and had a signing bonus of $6.6M. The only other player drafted last year was Brandon Finnegan who briefly played in MLB this year but is now back in the minors…..

 

[GTNavyNuke]

A few thoughts:

• It takes a few years in the minors to have a shot at getting to the majors. If you are drafted in the 10th or lower rounds, it takes at least 3 years till the first players start seeing the MLB. Unless you get a big signing bonus, why rush to leave college early?
• Our only MLB player is Buck Farmer. He was drafted in the 15th round in 2012 with no signing bonus. In 2013, he was drafted in the 5th round with a $.2M bonus. He is an example of why continuing to develop helps. If you are good enough to get drafted as a Jr, then you will be starting for your college and getting lots of good experience without the minor league “experience”.
• I was surprised how few High School draftees have ever had it to the MLB. In 2014, about 140 players were drafted from HS and went to the minors. 3 from 2012 have ever been to the MLB (only 1 currently) and 6 from 2011 (3 MLB currently). The odds to make it from HS to MLB is very low. (As I would expect college is too.)

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Draft rules are for 4 year college players to be 21 and have completed at least Jr year. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/draftday/rules.jsp

The eligible players we have are:
Srs – AJ Murray, Smith, Spignola and Stanton. I expect Spignola (mid rounds since drafted 24th round last year) and maybe Murray (late).

Jrs – Gonzo, Wruble, King, Joe Wiseman. Gonzo and King may go lower rounds but I think / hope they stay. Especially King who would benefit from a lot of experience next year.

Zac Attack is 21 but only a So. So he shouldn’t be available. He may well go next year as a Jr since he could be a high pick with a big bonus if he keeps developing like he has this year.

We have 3 commits in the top 100 for our 2015 class who could/should get draft offers - Brandt Stallings (1B #23), Tristin English (RHP #37) and Jonathon Hughes (RHP #77). (Rating are several month old Perfect Game ratings …. If anyone pays for them and can see the current ones, I’d appreciate knowing what they are). Lord knows we need the pitchers.

Hopefully they look at the odds of making it from HS to actually play in the MLB and opt to get developed at GT!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I think our season next year will be decided when King, Stallings and English decide after the draft on whether to go to MLB early.

If they do, we'll scrap to be 10th or better in the ACC. If they are all at GT, we'll be in the top 6 ACC. Need all three phases of the game - pitching, offense and defense to be credible in the ACC or NCAA tourneys.

 

[augustabuzz]

Navy, the rule is 21, OR completed his junior year. We have lost sophomores to the draft.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Damn, you're right. I reread the rule. Thanks.

So we can worry about Zac too. I think he could be a mid rounder too.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Here's a good Perfect Game site to follow how our incoming Fr are doing in the draft. There is a column on the far left with draft status. http://www.perfectgame.org/all_americans/2015/allamerica.aspx

• In the All Americans (top 55 in the US) we have: Tristin English RHP and Brandt Stallings 1B
• In the 2nd Team All Americans (next 51) in the US we have: Tyler Stephenson C
• In the final 55 we have: Joey Bart C and Jonathan Hughes RHP.

All are likely to get drafted but only English and Stallings maybe in the top 6 or so rounds ...... stay tuned to see...... it'll be interesting to see how many of the top 50 Perfect Game seniors go to the minors ....

 

[Squints]

but only English and Stallings maybe in the top 6 or so rounds

Not from what I've been reading. Stephenson's been shooting up boards and is going to be a first round pick. Apparently he won't make it past the Braves at #15 if even falls that far. There was talk that the Diamondbacks were considering taking him with the #1 pick because he would agree to a below slot bonus allowing them to spread their pool money around.

He's not going to be here next year.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Not from what I've been reading. Stephenson's been shooting up boards and is going to be a first round pick. Apparently he won't make it past the Braves at #15 if even falls that far. There was talk that the Diamondbacks were considering taking him with the #1 pick because he would agree to a below slot bonus allowing them to spread their pool money around.

He's not going to be here next year.

Any links to mock drafts? My observation the past few years is that most players in the top 100 who are drafted in the top 5 rounds go to the MLB. With a multi $M bonus that makes sense. The draft is a strange thing, hope he comes to GT ..... but what we really need most is pitchers!

 

[Squints]

Any links to mock drafts? My observation the past few years is that most players in the top 100 who are drafted in the top 5 rounds go to the MLB. With a multi $M bonus that makes sense. The draft is a strange thing, hope he comes to GT ..... but what we really need most is pitchers!

Here's the three big time guys who do mock the draft. There's plenty of time so it could definitely change.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-1-0/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-far-too-early-2015-mlb-mock-draft/
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/12379...g-first-to-arizona-diamondbacks-in-mock-draft

Here's the article about his possibly going first overall:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dbacks-plans-for-the-first-overall-pick-come-into-focus/

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Yup, looks like Stephenson will never come to GT. Thanks for the ****ty info.

I also went and sorted some information and it seems far more players who get drafted go from HS to the minors. If I get time, I'll write it up. But then again, I think that the players accepted and planning to come to GT are a whole lot more serious about education than someone going to ..... Lamar or whereever.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Here's the percentage of HS draftees last year who went to the NCAA. No one in the high rounds goes to the NCAA. Once you get to the 20th round, about 60% go. Basically, if our guys get drafted above the 20th round we are s.c.r.e.w.e.d.

I think there is a lot of selection bias in the numbers; if someone is drafted high it is because they indicated a willingness to accept to the MLB. Kel was an example of selection bias last year in that he was very highly rated by PerfectGame but not drafted. The reported reason: he would only go to the Braves high or GT. So no one drafted him.

So if on draft day we see our recruits get drafted high, it means they will probably never make it to GT. Not a good Present Value decision for them given the odds of making the MLB, but the glamour of the game outweighs the financial aspect. Data from http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/research.asp

 

[GTNavyNuke]

In another post I said that we recruited very well in Georgia and needed to recruit outside of Georgia more to become elite.

I’ve looked at the data and I still think that is the case. Here’s why:

• As discussed in the post https://gtswarm.com/threads/program-in-decline-why.6907/ NCAA baseball is limited to 11.7 or some limited number of scholarships. Thus most scholarships are not full ride. If you are from out of state, GT is very expensive especially if you can get much cheaper quality baseball development at a college in your own home state.
• Georgia only has about 3.2% of the US population. (=9,992,167/316,128,839 in 2013 census).
• The “talent” in Georgia is in line with the population. In 2014, Georgia had 3.2% of the top 500 players drafted and 3.8% of all players drafted to the minors. In 2013, the results were better at the high end with 4.2% of the top 500 coming from Georgia and 3.5% of all players drafted to the minors.
• The biggest states, who I would assume also have the in state tuition difference are ……. California, Texas and Florida. Seems the state school baseball teams in those states do ok (tic).
• GT is the elite school in Georgia for talent over the last few years. Not only by results in head to head play but by the numbers we get drafted to the minors. Here are the draft results by Georgia colleges (sic) over the last two years:·
  • 2014
    • Brewton-Parker College (1)
    • Georgia Gwinnett College (3)
    • Georgia Perimeter College (2)
    • Georgia Southern University (3)
    • Georgia State University (2)
    • Georgia Tech (6)
    • Kennesaw State University (4)
    • Mercer University (2)
    • North Georgia College & State University (1)
    • “University” of Georgia (3)
    • Valdosta State University (1)
  • 2013
    • Brewton-Parker College (1)
    • Columbus State University (1)
    • Darton College (1)
    • Georgia Perimeter College (1)
    • Georgia Tech (7)
    • Kennesaw State University (4)
    • Middle Georgia State College (2)
    • Savannah State University (1)
    • South Georgia College (2)
    • Southern Polytechnic State University (1)
    • “University” of Georgia (3)
• Finally, GT is not for everyone. The K-12 education system in Georgia is getting much better but is still about 23rd in the country (thanks to the Atlanta area immigrants)
  • About 40% of the HS draftees don’t go to any college but go to the minors.
  • About 60% go to colleges and many go to some of the community colleges listed above to develop their baseball skills.
  • Of those going to college, most don’t want the GT experience of technical discipline.

It is what it is. GT only attracts a small slice of eligible student athletes. So we need to cast a wider net than the state of Georgia.

 

[awbuzz]

Great data digging @GTNavyNuke !!!

 

[Stinger90]

Area baseball standouts await 'unpredictable' Major League Baseball Draft http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/section/28/article/110126/#

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Area baseball standouts await 'unpredictable' Major League Baseball Draft http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/section/28/article/110126/#

I liked the quote "“I know some of them have been asked already what their number is,” said Wolfe. “The pressure to not lowball yourself, but not price yourself out of the draft …" when talking about the MLB scouts with the HS kids.

I think that is a large reason why if a kid is drafted above the 14th round he is likely to go to MLB; the scouts already know what it will take to get him.

Next week's draft will determine whether GT has a credible team next year. Without pitching we won't do any better.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Draft results coming in the far right column here http://www.perfectgame.org/all_americans/2015/allamerica.aspx

... so far we haven't been screwed, but that is as of 2000 on Tuesday.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[SwarmArmy]

Bummer.. He'll skip college and go to the minors. Good luck to the kid! Would have been the next Matt Wieters here at Tech.

 

[OldJacketFan]

No great surprise about Tyler, hate to lose it but you can't turn down 1st round money