Our OOC schedule is tougher this year, but we should be favored in seven of the 12 games. And no worse than a toss-up in four more. The only game where we will be a certain underdog is Michigan State in the Orlando Classic (if we beat Marquette).
I think our upside is that we win all seven of the games that we should win and split the four toss-up games. Since I am assuming a win in the Marquette game, which matches up the Jackets with Michigan State, the first round game is one of the four toss-ups I think we will win. Several things could happen in Orlando, but I think we will win two games there, which are two of the toss-up games. I could also see us beating Marquette, losing to Michigan State, then losing to someone like Tennessee in a consolation game.
The uga game will be a tough one. We will be playing a potential NCAA Tournament team with a lineup that is clearly untested against competition at any level. We may have better players, but this will be huge if Tech can win. I think the Dayton game on the road will be another close game where the intangibles all favor the Flyers.
If I am correct, that would give us a 9-3 record entering ACC play.
Then we open on the road at Notre Dame, followed by Syracuse, Wake Forest, ND (again), Pitt, and Virginia. Five of those six games we could be a double digit underdog, with Wake as a toss-up. Since the Wake game is in Winston-Salem, we could be looking at an 0-6 record in the ACC. Then we play an 8-game stretch where we should be at least a toss-up in six of the games. Finally, we close with UNC, Louisville, Clemson on the road, and UNC again.
But, let's assume we win all the games where we are not a clear underdog. That means we will have swept Wake Forest and Clemson and beaten Miami and VPI on the road, and held service in all the toss-ups at home. If that happens, we will need to upset someone who is clearly an NCAA Tournament team, probably at McCamish, just to have a 9-9 ACC record.
My prediction is that we will close the OOC with an 8-4 record, then be 7-11 in ACC play. That gives us 15-15 record and an opportunity to play on the opening day in Greensboro.
2014 OOC Schedule, with my picks:
u(sic)Ga * Toss-up
Alabama A&M * Win
IPFW * Win
Marquette (N) Toss-up
Michigan State (N) Loss
TBA (N) Unknown/Toss-up
Northwestern Win
UP Upstate * Win
Appalachian State * Win
Vanderbilt * Win
Dayton Toss-up
Charlotte * Win