'14-15 Preseason Hoops Outlook

Peacone36

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I hope he is ready to start game 1. But I cant see him playing a ton of minutes 10 months after an ACL.

Im also a Heyward guy, I trust the ball in his hands, hes not flashy, but he plays good D, tries to move the ball around, and can make the post entry pass.
 

William S. Baker

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I believe this is the starting line up due to experience and coaches preference:

PG-Travis
SG-Bolden
SF-MGH
PF-Sampson
C-Mitchell

Second line up:
PG-Heyward
SG-Tadric
SF-Q
PF-Cox
C-Lammers

It would be tough to say which line up is better. Imagine pulling a NC substitution of all five starters out for the second line up.
 

dtm1997

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Unless there's something really wrong, I've got a hard time believing Tadric doesn't start day 1. He's going to be one of our primary scorers this year.

It will be interesting to see when Lammers and/or AD enter the fray. I think we may initially have a 3-man rotation across PF & C, with Q getting spot minutes there.

By all accounts, it looks like AD can become a stretch 4 if he develops his shooting. When the most known thing about him is that KD is his favorite NBA player, you probably have a kid that wants to end up on the perimeter.

Lammers just needs time to grow & make sure he's fully recovered from injury.

I could see us redshirting either one, both, or neither. It's really a toss-up depending on what we need as the season goes on.
 

kg01

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I still think Bolden gets the start. CBG is theoretically coaching for his job. Starting a tFr is kinda dicey for a guy in that position. It'll be an interesting thing to watch for sure. Maybe we should throw out a few avatar bets on it. :D
 

dtm1997

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I think Chris is a good player and can thrive in the right role (i.e. - sparkplug shooter off the bench). Tadric just won a state championship, was GA player of the year, can score, defend, has a college ready frame, is more athletic.

Tadric is the better choice to start & probably finish if BG is coaching for his job.
 

orientalnc

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I think Chris is a good player and can thrive in the right role (i.e. - sparkplug shooter off the bench). Tadric just won a state championship, was GA player of the year, can score, defend, has a college ready frame, is more athletic.

Tadric is the better choice to start & probably finish if BG is coaching for his job.

I agree. Bolden needs to demonstrate he can play consistently. He's had two years where he's had flashes of brilliance (mostly in his freshman year) and long periods of mediocrity. If he is the starter, that will tell me either he has really made the leap we hoped for or Tadric is not the savior we hoped for. I am hopeful, but not optimistic.
 

Ramblingon

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I agree that if Bolden starts on day 1 Jackson will be starting soon after. CBG was quick to start three freshmen two years ago and will not hesitate to put the most effective player in there. I don't see Cox in the PF role, but in the middle. Mitchell is more versatile and will be more effective as a PF/C backup, but probably getting starter minutes. Lot of versatility among the big guys.
 

Eric

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I've heard good things about Bolden this off-seaosn...will have to see it to believe it.

I'm not optimistic at all to be honest.

I like out young pieces... really think in a couple of years people will say we got a steal in Lammers.

Love Jorgenson...big fan.
 

dtm1997

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I've heard good things about Bolden this off-seaosn...will have to see it to believe it.

I'm not optimistic at all to be honest.

I like out young pieces... really think in a couple of years people will say we got a steal in Lammers.

Love Jorgenson...big fan.

After posting that Leonard Hamilton article, there were some comments on the Scout board from a font we'd be well served to have over here that BG most wants to emulate FSU. Hamilton got 7 years to build FSU into a solid team before really starting to show signs of flourishing the past few years.

My response as a lead-in to an ensuing sh**storm, as that board is prone to do, and I know Peacone won't really agree here, is that if BG shows incremental improvements over the next several years before launching in to sustained success (22-25 wins & postseason play consistently), I may not be against giving him that timeframe. Please note that Peacone didn't start the sh**storm over there.

I'd rather see quicker success, but I'd be happier with slower progression the next couple of years if it means we're consistently a top half, top third ACC team over the ensuing 10-20 years. That'll be less stress on the ticker as it gets old.

Let's be honest, I bet if we hit 20 wins and sniff the NIT, he's safe. I think it'll take a serious cratering for him to be let go.

This is year 4 so let's start from here to think about what a Years 4-7 progression could look like:

  1. Year 4 - 20 wins, sniffs the NIT without making it, lands some solid developmental players (i.e. - Vick, Laurent, Shawntrez Davis, Ogbeide, Reyes, etc.)
  2. Year 5 - 22 wins with MGH, Mitchell, & Bolden as Srs, Tadric & Travis gel as one of the best backcourts in the ACC, decent NIT run, reloads with mix of top & middle GA talent (i.e. headline with Simonds, Lewis, White, Robinson, Gilbert. Mix-in Cephus, Tucker, etc., maybe land a good prep school prospect out of footprint)
  3. Year 6 - 22-24 wins. Tadric & Travis are a top 5 ACC backcourt or better, Lammers has developed into a very serviceable center, AD at stretch 4, really good contributions from FR class, NCAA bid, reload with solid 2017 class to fill gaps/depth behind 2016 class
  4. Year 7 - 23-27 wins, Tadric & Travis among top backcourts in the nation. Lammers is upper tier post player in ACC. Developmental players (AD, 2015s) are making significant contributions, a couple of sophs are budding in to ACC stars, NCAA 2nd wknd, Landing Top 100s or even Top 50s from 2018 is no problem
I know we all want to see improvement at a faster rate, including me. However, if we had that kind of trajectory leading to sustained success in recruiting and getting to the NIT or NCAAs, I'd be hard pressed to complain. If BG is the guy to get us there that way, so be it. Remains to be seen.

I think we should be a 22-25 win/year program with postseason 75%-80% of the time and deeper postseason runs about 30%-50% when we make it. While we may not see it this year, I think this team has the potential to set the foundation for that program in the future.
 

dtm1997

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@dtm1997

That scenario falls into the too much kool-aid category for my comfort zone. I hope you are right.
I'm not drinking any kool aid. I was p-o'd over the Carter thing, although I think he filled gaps well. Reality is that he's our coach and we gotta ride with him for now.

I'm just more & more convinced that Bobinski wants the right culture instilled, academic success achieved first. Seems like it would take a real cratering for BG to get fired and I think this team is good enough to at least avoid that. Gotta remember that BG is the head coach until Bobinski alone decides otherwise, regardless of buyouts, fan sentiment, etc.

As far as the out years go, I'm making all of that up, but have to paint some sort of picture to justify a 7-year timeframe similar to what Leonard Hamilton received, given the comparison. I'm sure painting the picture of a 7-year timeframe will not be popular.
 

Peacone36

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Oh I disagree whole heartedly man, and its not anything other than the fact that I have dislked the hire from the start. He was wildly mediocre at Dayton and, say what you want about making a "sexy" pick, but he provided zero excitement (other than the elation of getting rid of the previous guy) to a fan base that desperately needed it after being subjected to years of bad basketball from a coach who should have been fired for about 3 years. (I realize that's an embarrassingly long run on sentence, but hey, it happens)

I haven't seen the progression to this point in recruiting, player progression (I know DM was good) in game decision making that makes me think that the results in the 2nd 3 year period are going to be any different than the first 3 years. However, if they come out and win 20 games this year and go to the NIT and we land Fall, Vick and maybe Brown, ill eat crow baby, breakfast lunch and dinner. Drown that bird in franks hot sauce and send it out.
 

dtm1997

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Yeah, I was expecting a more violent disagreement from you, but your bottom line has always been a fair one that, given the opportunity to make a splash with a change, we settled for "meh, he's ok, I guess".

Really, I'm only painting a picture for what we probably need to look like for him to get a 7-year window like Hamilton has and me be ok with it. I'm not making claims this actually goes down this way.

The lack of splash I blame on DRad for treating hoops like a second class citizen and putting the decision in Eddie Fogler's hands. The original choice was Chris Mooney, who's done nothing particularly interesting since spurning us to sign a nice long deal at Richmond.
 

McCamish Maniacs

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I think its pointless to argue about "what if" until we actually see what can be done. IMO, this year will be extremely critical in my opinion of him

BG made a huge improvement from year 1 to 2 getting 5 more wins

I thought last year was going to be a critical year as well, but given all the injuries it's hard to judge him for the record

That said, that makes this year extremely critical. If we don't see improvement this year again then I think it's time to really dig deeper into this discussion

Given last seasons injuries, I'm essentially treating this year as his year 3. I want to see improvement from 2 seasons ago
 

dtm1997

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I think that's a fair way to look at it. Record wasn't ideal last year, but came close to the previous year, despite your best player being out a third of the season. Many won't want to begrudgingly give him that mulligan, but I'm ok with it. I need 18-20 wins this year to stay ok with it.

Honestly, my biggest concern is not whether or not BG goes, it's does Chad Dollar get retained or promoted if there is a change. Right now, Dollar is the heart pumping the recruiting lifeblood for that critical 2016 class.
 

kg01

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I think that's a fair way to look at it. Record wasn't ideal last year, but came close to the previous year, despite your best player being out a third of the season. Many won't want to begrudgingly give him that mulligan, but I'm ok with it. I need 18-20 wins this year to stay ok with it.

Honestly, my biggest concern is not whether or not BG goes, it's does Chad Dollar get retained or promoted if there is a change. Right now, Dollar is the heart pumping the recruiting lifeblood for that critical 2016 class.

Hmmm, my ears are ringing ...

Seriously though, I don't care so much about the record. For me, it's more how we look and how we play. To me that speaks more to what kind of a job he's doing. Injuries and other things outside their control will happen, but if we come out and play hard and appear to be doing the right things on the court I think he'll be fine.

I side more with @Peacone36 (I want to say pine cone whenever I see that) but I am hopeful that we can put it together this year. I wish we were building a team through traditional recruiting rather than the pseudo-one-and-done/transfer route. It's gotta be tough to maintain chemistry when you're force-feeding pieces here and there.
 

dtm1997

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@kg01 - That begrudged mulligan was in reference to the scout board, where the bile & potshots flow much more freely than it does here, where people are generally rational & civil in expressing their opinions, both positive & negative.

I will say that more often than not, I thought last year's team put forth pretty good effort, ok, not great execution, & mediocre physical & mental toughness. Toughness alone would've won us games at Vandy & NC State, as well as at least one win against Clemson, but they folded in some cases. That'd be 19 wins and a lot fewer complaints.
 
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