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  1. slugboy

    Stats models and rankings

    I should add @ibeattetris and @GetYourBuzzOn here, to add in more info. A lot of the models have “priors”. In the case of FEI, it’s the last 5 seasons., so it’s one of Johnson’s worst seasons followed by 4 of mostly Collins. We started that model this year with an F- average to dig out of...
  2. slugboy

    Stats models and rankings

    Most of the stats models that get brought up (FEI, F+, SP+, Beta Rank, Sagarin, etc.) aren’t just ranking systems (like the CFP poll), but they’re also there to predict who will win a game. It’s tough to keep track of all of them if it’s not your full time job. It’s not my full time job. They...
  3. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    I think we’re running an offense more like WKU or USCW. Think Air Raid with a strong running game—still balanced. We’re more based on spread and speed. https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2017/8/2/15986274/lincoln-riley-oklahoma-sooners-offense
  4. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    Fridge ran a power I and one set with a fullback, and tailback, and a deep back—straight I with three backs. Only once for that.
  5. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    So, Herbstreit thinks we were one of the top performing teams of the week. It’s been a while since we got kudos, so let’s take ‘em. While we’re at it, Kelly Ford ratings: (kfordratings.com) Up to #57–looking up at NCST and Pitt, but up a lot
  6. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    We have TEs we can use as fullbacks (H backs). Mike Alstott or Jerome Bettis are nice to have, but they were beating us off our blocks. We need a counter or a trap or something to make them pay for guessing. Or we need to block faster.
  7. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    If you had to do tiers, how would you split them? Would UVA and VT be paired up, or would would you clump the bottom 4. Is it FSU and then a gap, or is UNC close behind? IMHO, the SP+ and FEI models underestimate us a little—there’s a bias from the last four seasons that isn’t worked out yet...
  8. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    Waaaaay back on page 10. We’re in the middle right now. Three teams haven’t even played a conference game, and we’re Miami’s first conference game in two weeks. SCHOOL ACC OVERALL Florida State 2-0 4-0 Louisville 2-0 4-0 Duke 1-0 4-0 North Carolina 1-0 4-0 NC State 1-0 3-1...
  9. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    I can only comment on what I see. Maybe that’s why he was bracketed and the pass overthrown. Unless King saw him break free of coverage earlier (unlikely if he was being held), It’s still the wrong read to throw to the double-covered receiver. Someone had to be open on that play.
  10. slugboy

    Haynes King Update: How Do We Feel About Him?

    I would like Pyron to get a lot of reps against Bowling Green after King is healthily relaxing on the sidelines with a big lead in the first half. Knock wood 🪵
  11. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    I’d have preferred ND take their losses in ACC play ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  12. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    Don’t take this as me being negative on a win. I think we got just 10 points off of the 5 turnovers we should have gotten at least double that. We hit some beautiful big plays, but we don’t grind it out very well (we aren’t efficient). The last couple of years, we didn’t move the ball a lot...
  13. slugboy

    Win Total Predictions

    We need to figure out the run blocking though. If Miami does the same thing to our run game that WF did, their secondary is better and we don’t want to be one dimensional against Miami.
  14. slugboy

    CFP Discussion

    As of right now (week 4), 10 of the top 10 teams in the AP poll are undefeated. If I count correctly, 18 of the top 25 are undefeated. There are also teams outside the top 25 that are undefeated. The ACC currently has 6 (Louisville, Duke, FSU, Miami, Syracuse, UNC). The Big12 has Kansas, Texas...
  15. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    Here you go—the highlights. The last drive for Wake, we play prevent—very heavy on bend vs break. King’s first int is just bad. He threw some dimes that were beautiful. He’s got a high ceiling, but runs hot and cold. If he works out those kinks, he’s top-tier. That’s why we could use something...
  16. slugboy

    Win Total Predictions

    Yeah, but we gotta take away Shipley—and that’s been tough for us in the past.
  17. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    They will probably give them all a close game, but be underdogs in all three. The Clemson game will tell us a lot about Clemson and about Syracuse. Clemson has lost to #18 Duke 28-7, beaten Charleston Southern and FIU, and lost to FSU. Syracuse would be their first quality win of the season...
  18. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    I don’t agree about the refs, but Griffis isn’t exactly killing it. See Post in thread 'ACC Standings' https://gtswarm.com/threads/acc-standings.27239/post-962967
  19. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    Two QB views from ESPN ESPN’s QBR (what they add by throwing and running) And sorted by EPA (how much you add to the expected score) King is in good company. What holds him back is points. Shrader probably isn’t getting enough attention.
  20. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    I don’t know if it’s the play calling, or that we need a way to get a reliable 3 1/2-4 yards. We had a few nice runs—especially the last TD—but mostly they weren’t effective. This team either needs an effective and efficient running game or something else that’s efficient (screen passes). King...
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