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  1. slugboy

    First game with my daughter, looking for advice.

    If you’ve never eaten there, the Varsity is a human internal lube job. Don’t get medical tests the same day you eat there ;)
  2. slugboy

    CFP Discussion

    I’ll watch some, but I don’t have a team — it’s just watching football
  3. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    There were some abused stats that said “teams that run the ball more are more likely to win”. The basis of those stats were that the teams that had a lead, and could successfully run, switched to running and ran out the clock (and kept scoring, but more slowly). First, a generation of coaches...
  4. slugboy

    First game with my daughter, looking for advice.

    I don’t know how old your daughter is. When my kids were in pre-k, we left at halftime. That was as much of a game as they were up for. We stopped at the Varsity on the way out for a little food. A frozen orange (it’s a slushie) goes a long way for a little kid
  5. slugboy

    Conference Realignment

    that’s like transferring your house but not the mortgage lien.
  6. slugboy

    CFP Discussion

    And Penn State—all the B1G unbeatens play each other. So yeah, I understand what you’re saying OrientalNC asked about TODAY, and they’re top 4 now. FSU controls their own destiny, and UNC and Miami and maybe even Duke also do.
  7. slugboy

    CFP Discussion

    As of today—current list of 4 for 2023 UGA MICH TEX OSU FSU on the sidelines For next season, I think you’re right
  8. slugboy

    Stats models and rankings

    Here’s the composite that I liked last year, for week 5: I like the per-conference graph he puts together here. GT has fought their way into the middle (ending the Ole Miss game in the third quarter would have probably moved us up a lot) We’re at #67 overall, and you can see and download...
  9. slugboy

    Stats models and rankings

    It’s funny seeing two different stat takes in two different threads. That’s taking the raw number. Clemson is 2-2, and they’ve played FSU, Duke, FIU, and Charleston Southern. This is the opponent-adjusted version of EPA (Defensive EPA is inverted, with a high EPA on the bottom, so scoring a lot...
  10. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    Against UNC, Pitt booed their starting QB Jurkovec, who played ok, then he got hurt when he got targeted. Veilleux came in and did worse.
  11. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    I would still play him. He made plays.
  12. slugboy

    Game 4 #GTvsWF Postgame

    2023 vs 2022 is nice 2022 (awful, far left side of the chart) 2023 (mid, right on the crosshairs, but way better than bottom left)
  13. slugboy

    Stats models and rankings

    That one is just ELO-chess. The predictor is based on margin. That’s mainly on us. Win and you move up. Even stay close, and you’ll do well.
  14. slugboy

    CFP Discussion

    How can you win your home territory back? I guess “never lose a home game”?
  15. slugboy

    Stats models and rankings

    I don’t think any of them are.
  16. slugboy

    Stats models and rankings

    That’s the preseason one—I linked it because it explains the blended models. The current one doesn’t have Clemson in the top 15. FSU is still down at 12, though. Clemson is at 18 and we’re at 64. Lots of preseason bias still in.
  17. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    I like the chapter 11 analogy. Louisville is not in the top 25. They’re getting votes, though. Looking back, we should have beaten them. If our defense was playing decently, or if we’d adjusted to their defensive changes in the second half, we might have. I view it as a game that got away...
  18. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    If we’d been bowling several years in a row, a few years out of playing for a conference championship, and were 3-0, then lost one game that we were favored in to a team that had dwelled in the basement of the conference for the last four years, we’d call it a bad loss, but we wouldn’t expect...
  19. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    Take the polls and the prediction models with a grain of salt until week 6 or 7. Even before, they’re mostly right with a few outliers. If you rank teams just based on the wins, you can play that “transitive win” game that ranks Kansas over Alabama. That gets silly results. Four straight...
  20. slugboy

    ACC Standings

    They’re 3-1, and haven’t been terrible since 2019. It’s a body of work. Our body of work is we’re 2-2, with one of the wins against an FCS team. We have a mediocre last year with Johnson and 4 bad years since as our past 5 years. Journalist, coaches, and ADs and the math models aren’t going to...
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