Writer and Analyst ACC Forecasts

[slugboy]

Not SP+, but ESPN released their projected FPI for the year.

Get the pitchforks out, gang!

PRO: We’re up to being ranked #61. Last year, we were #90, and in 2019, we were #110. We were #39 in 2018.

CON: That forecasts 3.8 wins for the year.

They give ~40% odds of us winning 6 games for the year. Similar teams are BYU, UCLA, Utah, Maryland, Liberty, and Stanford.

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Not SP+, but ESPN released their projected FPI for the year.

Get the pitchforks out, gang!

PRO: We’re up to being ranked #61. Last year, we were #90, and in 2019, we were #110. We were #39 in 2018.

CON: That forecasts 3.8 wins for the year.

They give ~40% odds of us winning 6 games for the year. Similar teams are BYU, UCLA, Utah, Maryland, Liberty, and Stanford.

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

They compared to us to the PAC-12, who doesn’t even play football? I’m outraged!

 

[orientalnc]

Not SP+, but ESPN released their projected FPI for the year.

Get the pitchforks out, gang!

PRO: We’re up to being ranked #61. Last year, we were #90, and in 2019, we were #110. We were #39 in 2018.

CON: That forecasts 3.8 wins for the year.

They give ~40% odds of us winning 6 games for the year. Similar teams are BYU, UCLA, Utah, Maryland, Liberty, and Stanford.

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

I think we need two things to happen if we're going to beat those predictions:

1- Our OL has be a improved and more consistent than last year. Sims and Company are not going to be effective with opponent shirts in our backfield.
2- The middle of our defensive line as to be a lot better. We cannot expect our LBs and DBs to cover pass plays if they also have man the LOS.

I am more optimistic about the former. Less so about the latter.

 

[slugboy]

I think we need two things to happen if we're going to beat those predictions:

1- Our OL has be a improved and more consistent than last year. Sims and Company are not going to be effective with opponent shirts in our backfield.
2- The middle of our defensive line as to be a lot better. We cannot expect our LBs and DBs to cover pass plays if they also have man the LOS.

I am more optimistic about the former. Less so about the latter.

The middle of the defensive line is a big deal. We’re big enough and strong enough there. UCF and some other teams have done well with taller and lankier (for DT/NT players) inner defensive linemen who are fast. I’m not saying that we should change to different players, but playing speed and technique are important too, and I think that’s where we’re missing out.

In some of the film last year, almost everyone got blocked in some of the plays, but I think the middle of the line had it worse.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I think we need two things to happen if we're going to beat those predictions:

1- Our OL has be a improved and more consistent than last year. Sims and Company are not going to be effective with opponent shirts in our backfield.
2- The middle of our defensive line as to be a lot better. We cannot expect our LBs and DBs to cover pass plays if they also have man the LOS.

I am more optimistic about the former. Less so about the latter.

I would pick different areas, but then I guess the point is we have a lot to work on. We left tons of points per game on the field last year by not having a kicker. Our penalties were horrible and also cost us a lot of points. Our offense was finally scoring enough points to win some games, but our defense at times was not good.

 

[jacketup]

I think we need two things to happen if we're going to beat those predictions:

1- Our OL has be a improved and more consistent than last year. Sims and Company are not going to be effective with opponent shirts in our backfield.
2- The middle of our defensive line as to be a lot better. We cannot expect our LBs and DBs to cover pass plays if they also have man the LOS.

I am more optimistic about the former. Less so about the latter.

With regard to 2: I count 7 DTs that are 290 lbs or better. None of those guys are superstars, but we haven't been this big with depth in awhile. Also remember that Chimedza, who may be the best of the bunch, was out all of last year. I'm more positive about personnel on the D than the O in the short term. However, Quez and Ace have to stay healthy, and we need to see improvement at CB.

 

[orientalnc]

With regard to 2: I count 7 DTs that are 290 lbs or better. None of those guys are superstars, but we haven't been this big with depth in awhile. Also remember that Chimedza, who may be the best of the bunch, was out all of last year. I'm more positive about personnel on the D than the O in the short term. However, Quez and Ace have to stay healthy, and we need to see improvement at CB.

I agree with you regarding our size inside.

 

[FlatsLander]

I would pick different areas, but then I guess the point is we have a lot to work on. We left tons of points per game on the field last year by not having a kicker. Our penalties were horrible and also cost us a lot of points. Our offense was finally scoring enough points to win some games, but our defense at times was not good.

I agree with this too. Also, kick/punt return decisions. I'm sure we lost a ton of yardage by not taking fair catches when we should have, especially on KO.

 

[Jacketman99]

We played a ton of young guys last year on the DL. These guys tend to get better with experience and time in S&C to get bigger and stronger. I think we really missed TK on the interior last year. We should see improved play from this group next year and this group could become a strength of our team in 2 years. I like the way Collins is developing quality depth across the lines.

 

[slugboy]

I renamed this because I’m seeing other season forecasts. Here’s the frequently derided David Hale, with TWO Yellow Jackets on his pre-season first team All ACC list

(really, it’s not too bad. I’d like for us to have an offensive lineman on the list, or a secondary player, but we didn’t have that kind of season)

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I renamed this because I’m seeing other season forecasts. Here’s the frequently derided David Hale, with TWO Yellow Jackets on his pre-season first team All ACC list

View attachment 10608

(really, it’s not too bad. I’d like for us to have an offensive lineman on the list, or a secondary player, but we didn’t have that kind of season)

Not a single Virginia player LOL.

 

[slugboy]

I just remembered we lost a near-automatic slot (punter) on the All-ACC list with Pressley Harvin’s graduation.

 

[4shotB]

Clemson has 9 guys (and 4 DL) on the 1st or 2nd team D according to Hale. I am no @kg01 in terms of prognostication abilities but I will venture to say Clemson will be a very good team this year. In fact, I am calling that now. Clemson will win their division. I know this is probably going to anger some Syracuse and FSU fans but you got to go with gut feelings at times.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Clemson has 9 guys (and 4 DL) on the 1st or 2nd team D according to Hale. I am no @kg01 in terms of prognostication abilities but I will venture to say Clemson will be a very good team this year. In fact, I am calling that now. Clemson will win their division. I know this is probably going to anger some Syracuse and FSU fans but you got to go with gut feelings at times.

I admire your courage to go out on a limb and trust your instinct.

 

[kg01]

Clemson has 9 guys (and 4 DL) on the 1st or 2nd team D according to Hale. I am no @kg01 in terms of prognostication abilities but I will venture to say Clemson will be a very good team this year. In fact, I am calling that now. Clemson will win their division. I know this is probably going to anger some Syracuse and FSU fans but you got to go with gut feelings at times.

I mean, who is though?

Don't beat yourself up about it.

 

[slugboy]

I don’t have an ESPN+ subscription, but

The overall SP+ rankings are posted here, but the details aren’t. We’re projected for 4 1/2 wins.

The “ACC” including Notre Dame

Rank	School	Offense	Defense	Expected Wins	ACC Rank
3	Clemson	4	12	9.5	1
9	Notre Dame	10	20	8.7	2
18	North Carolina	8	45	8	3
23	Miami	56	10	6.9	4
27	FSU	28	33	6.5	5
35	Virginia Tech	49	32	6.5	6
40	Pitt	101	7	5.8	7
41	Louisville	12	84	6	8
43	UVA	60	39	5.8	9
54	Georgia Tech	90	35	4.4	10
64	NCST	79	59	4.6	11
67	Boston College	43	95	3.9	12
71	Duke	115	32	4.2	13
87	Syracuse	82	90	3.4	14
88	Wake Forest	109	57	3.2	15

I’m looking forward to more of the data popping up on Twitter (or publicly somewhere). A couple of keys here:

• This is a major improvement on defense. Some of this has to be based on the transfers and returning players.
• The schedule is brutal, and costs us 1 game and a half from the win column.
• Hopefully, the offense is underrated, and an improved offensive line gels and we’re better than #90.

If the receivers and offensive line are better than last year, we’ve got a shot at 5 or 6 wins. 7 would be amazing.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I don’t have an ESPN+ subscription, but

The overall SP+ rankings are posted here, but the details aren’t. We’re projected for 4 1/2 wins.

The “ACC” including Notre Dame

Rank	School	Offense	Defense	Expected Wins	ACC Rank
3	Clemson	4	12	9.5	1
9	Notre Dame	10	20	8.7	2
18	North Carolina	8	45	8	3
23	Miami	56	10	6.9	4
27	FSU	28	33	6.5	5
35	Virginia Tech	49	32	6.5	6
40	Pitt	101	7	5.8	7
41	Louisville	12	84	6	8
43	UVA	60	39	5.8	9
54	Georgia Tech	90	35	4.4	10
64	NCST	79	59	4.6	11
67	Boston College	43	95	3.9	12
71	Duke	115	32	4.2	13
87	Syracuse	82	90	3.4	14
88	Wake Forest	109	57	3.2	15

I’m looking forward to more of the data popping up on Twitter (or publicly somewhere). A couple of keys here:

• This is a major improvement on defense. Some of this has to be based on the transfers and returning players.
• The schedule is brutal, and costs us 1 game and a half from the win column.
• Hopefully, the offense is underrated, and an improved offensive line gels and we’re better than #90.

If the receivers and offensive line are better than last year, we’ve got a shot at 5 or 6 wins. 7 would be amazing.

I'm pretty sure that math doesn't work. Winning 4.4 games means with 2 easy OOC games they're expecting us to win about 2.4 ACC games...yet finish ahead of 5 other teams. there is no way that 6 teams in the ACC will only win between 0 and 2.4 games. These analysts are ****ing stupid.

If this is ONLY ACC games, then they're basically expecting us to win 6.4 games. I can believe and live with that.

 

[gtchem05]

I don’t have an ESPN+ subscription, but

The overall SP+ rankings are posted here, but the details aren’t. We’re projected for 4 1/2 wins.

The “ACC” including Notre Dame

Rank	School	Offense	Defense	Expected Wins	ACC Rank
3	Clemson	4	12	9.5	1
9	Notre Dame	10	20	8.7	2
18	North Carolina	8	45	8	3
23	Miami	56	10	6.9	4
27	FSU	28	33	6.5	5
35	Virginia Tech	49	32	6.5	6
40	Pitt	101	7	5.8	7
41	Louisville	12	84	6	8
43	UVA	60	39	5.8	9
54	Georgia Tech	90	35	4.4	10
64	NCST	79	59	4.6	11
67	Boston College	43	95	3.9	12
71	Duke	115	32	4.2	13
87	Syracuse	82	90	3.4	14
88	Wake Forest	109	57	3.2	15

I’m looking forward to more of the data popping up on Twitter (or publicly somewhere). A couple of keys here:

• This is a major improvement on defense. Some of this has to be based on the transfers and returning players.
• The schedule is brutal, and costs us 1 game and a half from the win column.
• Hopefully, the offense is underrated, and an improved offensive line gels and we’re better than #90.

If the receivers and offensive line are better than last year, we’ve got a shot at 5 or 6 wins. 7 would be amazing.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Clemson wins more than 9.5 games.

 

[ncjacket79]

Wow, this is amazingly bad:

Which is why the coaches harped on it this spring.

 

[slugboy]

I'm pretty sure that math doesn't work. Winning 4.4 games means with 2 easy OOC games they're expecting us to win about 2.4 ACC games...yet finish ahead of 5 other teams. there is no way that 6 teams in the ACC will only win between 0 and 2.4 games. These analysts are ****ing stupid.

If this is ONLY ACC games, then they're basically expecting us to win 6.4 games. I can believe and live with that.

We’re not getting 100% odds on those two games—probably something more like 70-80%, which means we’ll start at about 1.5 wins for those two games. Northern Illinois and Kennesaw State aren’t as low on the “gimme” list, also.
Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgia, North Carolina, and Miami would be heavily favored on this projection. Pitt and Virginia will both be favored at home. Virginia Tech will be favored. So, we’ll be underdogs in 8 out of 12 games.
In our ACC schedule, we’d be favored over Duke and BC.
So, it’s figuring on one upset in the list.
Of the teams in the ACC ranked behind us, we play 2 out of 5. We’re in the wrong division this year. We’re kind of lucky to have BC on the list.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Clemson wins more than 9.5 games.

Clemson’s schedule is MUCH easier than ours. Their hardest game is UGA, who we also play. They don’t play Miami or Notre Dame. They don’t even play VT.
However, they lost their Heisman-caliber 4-year starter at QB, plus their best running back who is also a good receiver. They lost Amari Rogers (WR), who was drafted in the first round. One of their starting offensive tackles was drafted in the second round. Another receiver went in the 5th round.
They’re getting dinged for loss of production. Their offense should still be a nightmare, but it should regress a bit from the last few seasons.
It would take a loss to UGA and two pretty good upsets to limit them to 9 wins. They’re a lot more “upset-able” than in previous years, though. Their three four biggest upset threats are Pitt (great defense, possibly a 13-10 win), FSU, South Carolina (not seeing it, really), and Louisville. Pitt, FSU, and Louisville are back-to-back.

(Edit: I can kind of do math. I originally left out South Carolina from the upset possibilities, but added them later. In a lot of ways, we have a better shot because we play Clemson earlier in the season)