Writer and Analyst ACC Forecasts

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
5,292
Until our defense can get back to <30 ppg, then we should be considered a bottom tier team in the ACC. In all likelihood, we need to be closer to 20 ppg allowed in order to win 9 games. That is a pretty drastic difference from where we currently stand.
Under 20 is a top 20 scoring defense. I looked at 2018 and 2020 numbers because last year was weird. many of the teams in the top 20 had significantly easier schedules than us.

Last year, an average defense gave up 28 points (28.5). We had a horrible year. Getting above average would be a huge improvement. That would also probably increase our wins to at least 5 if not 6 and bowl eligibility
 

BainbridgeJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
815
Under 20 is a top 20 scoring defense. I looked at 2018 and 2020 numbers because last year was weird. many of the teams in the top 20 had significantly easier schedules than us.

Last year, an average defense gave up 28 points (28.5). We had a horrible year. Getting above average would be a huge improvement. That would also probably increase our wins to at least 5 if not 6 and bowl eligibility
Agreed. Looking back:
- 2003 thru 07 we were ~20 ppg
- 2008 we were 22.1 ppg
- 2009 thru 16 we were ~26 ppg, with the exception of 2012 where we were 30.2 ppg
- 2017 onwards is a regression that is statistically appalling tbh.

Assuming we don't get back to 2009, 2014, 2016 offensive output, I think we need to get back to the ~20 ppg #.
 

Root4GT

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
91
Until our defense can get back to <30 ppg, then we should be considered a bottom tier team in the ACC. In all likelihood, we need to be closer to 20 ppg allowed in order to win 9 games. That is a pretty drastic difference from where we currently stand.
Last year one team gave up under 20 outs/gams. Clemson. ND gave up 20/game. Nine ACC teams gave up 29+ points per game. GETTING TO 25/game would be great.
 

augustabuzz

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,707
Agreed. Looking back:
- 2003 thru 07 we were ~20 ppg
- 2008 we were 22.1 ppg
- 2009 thru 16 we were ~26 ppg, with the exception of 2012 where we were 30.2 ppg
- 2017 onwards is a regression that is statistically appalling tbh.

Assuming we don't get back to 2009, 2014, 2016 offensive output, I think we need to get back to the ~20 ppg #.
Removing the Clemson anomaly, we averaged 32.8 ppg. Still, plenty of work to be done but not an impossible hill to climb.
 

BainbridgeJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
815
Last year one team gave up under 20 outs/gams. Clemson. ND gave up 20/game. Nine ACC teams gave up 29+ points per game. GETTING TO 25/game would be great.
Screenshot_20210705-143423_Chrome.jpg
 

vespinaeGT

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
299
Until our defense can get back to <30 ppg, then we should be considered a bottom tier team in the ACC. In all likelihood, we need to be closer to 20 ppg allowed in order to win 9 games. That is a pretty drastic difference from where we currently stand.
Luckily we should look pretty drastically different just based on available personnel on defense this year. Hopefully that will yield some much better results.
 

gtrower

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,363
Agreed. Looking back:
- 2003 thru 07 we were ~20 ppg
- 2008 we were 22.1 ppg
- 2009 thru 16 we were ~26 ppg, with the exception of 2012 where we were 30.2 ppg
- 2017 onwards is a regression that is statistically appalling tbh.

Assuming we don't get back to 2009, 2014, 2016 offensive output, I think we need to get back to the ~20 ppg #.

That was a different CFB era and a different offensive mindset (even pre-CPJ). Zero chance we get anywhere close to 20ppg on defense with an up-tempo offensive mindset leading to more possessions against teams that are already scoring at a higher rate than they were 15 years ago. We’d be winning 10+ Regular season games every year with a defense that good.
 
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