Writer and Analyst ACC Forecasts

[Deleted member 2897]

Not SP+, but TheAthletic:



I hope and expect the turnovers and penalties to go down significantly, and the blocking to improve a lot. My biggest questions are interior DL and LB.

What I take out of that picture is how full of **** 247 is. When you factor in our high school recruits and transfers from other schools, we've been top 25 both of the last 2 years (top 15 last year). And we're trending that way again. To say the quality if our roster is similar to 4 years ago is demonstrably false.

(BTW, I just looked up our current roster composite ranking (where 247 takes into account everyone on the roster right now), and we're #34. I then went back 4 years and it was ranked #54.)

 

[WreckinGT]

Outgained them 453-357, not a small margin. Offset by 15 penalties, 5 turnovers, 1 49 yd KO return, blocked 26 yard field goal. We earned that L in all possible ways.

They had more yards per play than we did. It's not really their fault they had to run less plays.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

They had more yards per play than we did. It's not really their fault they had to run less plays.

They also had more points on the scoreboard. There were a couple stats out of 20 that they led in.

 

[YJMD]

They also had more points on the scoreboard. There were a couple stats out of 20 that they led in.

It's a matter of perspective. About half of their offense came from 4 plays. The other 61 netted about 3 ypp. While there is credit to Cuse for making the big plays happen, the game tape reveals they were easily as much a function of bad defensive decisions as good offense. Like I said, we earned the L in every possible way. Showed we were more capable at basically everything except making decisions on that day. That doesn't mean we were better than them. By no means was their victory a fluke. They deserved to win based on our relative performances on the field. But I will say based on the totality of the season I think we win at least 8/10 if we were to play it over again and again (this not trying to incorporate adjustments made from repeated play). Hard to blame "trap game" psychology on a result, but I do wonder if our players and/or coaches thought they were better so didn't have to play sound football, especially considering Syracuse's absolute inability to complete a downfield pass prior to our game.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

It's a matter of perspective. About half of their offense came from 4 plays. The other 61 netted about 3 ypp. While there is credit to Cuse for making the big plays happen, the game tape reveals they were easily as much a function of bad defensive decisions as good offense. Like I said, we earned the L in every possible way. Showed we were more capable at basically everything except making decisions on that day. That doesn't mean we were better than them. By no means was their victory a fluke. They deserved to win based on our relative performances on the field. But I will say based on the totality of the season I think we win at least 8/10 if we were to play it over again and again (this not trying to incorporate adjustments made from repeated play). Hard to blame "trap game" psychology on a result, but I do wonder if our players and/or coaches thought they were better so didn't have to play sound football, especially considering Syracuse's absolute inability to complete a downfield pass prior to our game.

Yea, they were horrible - they had 1 total touchdown prior to playing us. Last year as a whole, they scored 2 touchdowns or less half the time and went 1-10 (welp). 37 points against us, but their offense only had 3 drives over 40 yards. We gave them the ball on our side of the field constantly.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

It's a matter of perspective. About half of their offense came from 4 plays. The other 61 netted about 3 ypp. While there is credit to Cuse for making the big plays happen, the game tape reveals they were easily as much a function of bad defensive decisions as good offense. Like I said, we earned the L in every possible way. Showed we were more capable at basically everything except making decisions on that day. That doesn't mean we were better than them. By no means was their victory a fluke. They deserved to win based on our relative performances on the field. But I will say based on the totality of the season I think we win at least 8/10 if we were to play it over again and again (this not trying to incorporate adjustments made from repeated play). Hard to blame "trap game" psychology on a result, but I do wonder if our players and/or coaches thought they were better so didn't have to play sound football, especially considering Syracuse's absolute inability to complete a downfield pass prior to our game.

I mean, half our yardage came off 9 plays, but that's how most games work out...

 

[YJMD]

I mean, half our yardage came off 9 plays, but that's how most games work out...

Big difference between 4 and 9... But, again, you have to look at the plays themselves. When a corner is on an island with a receiver and decides to let a guy run past him to play run support, you don't have to be very good to score a TD on the play. By no means a guarantee of anything. You have to protect a little, read, and make the throw. Are you arguing that their offensive success was due to superior ability instead?

 

[swampsting]

Remember...we flew almost to Canada to play in a football game that the ACC stopped right before kick-off thinking the covid monster had taken over the Carrier Dome. Starting/stopping/starting didn't help with keeping focus and developing momentum.

Syracuse had to go through the same thing of stopping and starting. Didn't seem to bother them.

 

[swampsting]

To be honest when you look at our staff- has seemingly tremendous potential but were very green. Positive outlook, they have learned some. It’s not a hard leap that CGC and company are not nearly as raw as 2019.

Collins came with two years of head coaching experience. And when you're pulling down $3M plus a year, raw should go out the door as soon as you put name to contract.
I spent a lot of time with PJ his very first two years of head coaching, when he was younger than Collins was when he got his first HC gig. He didn't miss a trick then. Except one. And that was on a play call that worked but not as well as it could have.
i'm not picking on you, Liberty Turns, but I chafe at this mantra that Collins had to learn on the job.
BS.
You get a P5 job, there is no learning curve. You better know what you're doing and how to do it from the start

We may - and that's a great assumption - be better this year but not have the results to match because of the schedule.
One more thing. I compared this year's spring roster to the one from 2019. The number of folks from 2019 who could be playing this year - with the extra year factored in - from 19 who are not is about 33, +/- a couple. I did not include David Curry. I did include folks like Quinney and Kaleb Oliver, among others, though.
That's 33 scholarship guys. Not walkons. Not preferred walkons. Guys on full rides.
Some of those guys were Collins' recruits. But with 33 guys who could, with the extra year, play and who are not, this is now all on Collins.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Big difference between 4 and 9... But, again, you have to look at the plays themselves. When a corner is on an island with a receiver and decides to let a guy run past him to play run support, you don't have to be very good to score a TD on the play. By no means a guarantee of anything. You have to protect a little, read, and make the throw. Are you arguing that their offensive success was due to superior ability instead?

Considering we ran 19 more plays than they did, not really...

And I would argue that they executed a game plan that exposed just how bad our secondary was last year. A team doesn't have to be superior to win, they just have to do a better job executing their game plan. We lost not only because Sims played like a true freshman QB in a road game, but also because our defense didn't do a good job of shutting them down.

 

[jacketup]

Considering we ran 19 more plays than they did, not really...

And I would argue that they executed a game plan that exposed just how bad our secondary was last year. A team doesn't have to be superior to win, they just have to do a better job executing their game plan. We lost not only because Sims played like a true freshman QB in a road game, but also because our defense didn't do a good job of shutting them down.

As a defensive player, when you have to keep going back in becasue the O is turning the ball over frequently, it has a detrimental impact on your morale. It's a team sport, and the D can get the attitude that if the O is not doing their job, why should you bust your *** doing yours? It's just human nature.

 

[YJMD]

Considering we ran 19 more plays than they did, not really...

11% vs. 6%.

And I would argue that they executed a game plan that exposed just how bad our secondary was last year. A team doesn't have to be superior to win, they just have to do a better job executing their game plan. We lost not only because Sims played like a true freshman QB in a road game, but also because our defense didn't do a good job of shutting them down.

Again, watch the tape of the game vs others. The whole point here is that it was our secondary gaffes which enabled this, but those gaffes were generally poor decisions rather than bad players or bad scheme (principally). They do stand out as especially bad in a field of bad as does Sims turnovers that you mention.

I think we agree more than anything. But the point I'm trying to make is that it is much more straightforward to address errors than ability. Doesn't necessarily mean we'll be successful, but I'm optimistic for a big advancement. Sadly, we are again facing a top-heavy schedule with a couple of teams in the way of Miami and UNC that are less proven but will have a significant talent edge. We will have to win the games where the on paper matchups favor us by narrower margins in order to turn out a good season.

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

One more thing. I compared this year's spring roster to the one from 2019. The number of folks from 2019 who could be playing this year - with the extra year factored in - from 19 who are not is about 33, +/- a couple. I did not include David Curry. I did include folks like Quinney and Kaleb Oliver, among others, though.
That's 33 scholarship guys. Not walkons. Not preferred walkons. Guys on full rides.
Some of those guys were Collins' recruits. But with 33 guys who could, with the extra year, play and who are not, this is now all on Collins.

Aren't these numbers (11 players leaving/transferring/dropping football per year) pretty standard for Tech? Maybe I am mistaken about that number... but in a complete offensive overhaul to stay within/or close to the standard amount of players leaving on a per year basis seems like decent roster management.

 

[slugboy]

Today is FSU




They had a shutdown corner this year, drafted in the early 2nd round, plus an bevy of top recruits and players in their defensive front, and they’re still poor

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

As a defensive player, when you have to keep going back in becasue the O is turning the ball over frequently, it has a detrimental impact on your morale. It's a team sport, and the D can get the attitude that if the O is not doing their job, why should you bust your *** doing yours? It's just human nature.

That argument would hold water if we didn't also win the time of possession battle by almost 10 minutes. I get the morale angle, but if they were that devastated then it was a coaching failure somewhere along the line. Not sure I buy that.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

11% vs. 6%.



Again, watch the tape of the game vs others. The whole point here is that it was our secondary gaffes which enabled this, but those gaffes were generally poor decisions rather than bad players or bad scheme (principally). They do stand out as especially bad in a field of bad as does Sims turnovers that you mention.

I think we agree more than anything. But the point I'm trying to make is that it is much more straightforward to address errors than ability. Doesn't necessarily mean we'll be successful, but I'm optimistic for a big advancement. Sadly, we are again facing a top-heavy schedule with a couple of teams in the way of Miami and UNC that are less proven but will have a significant talent edge. We will have to win the games where the on paper matchups favor us by narrower margins in order to turn out a good season.

I never said anything about ability. I said we were a bad secondary last year and Syracuse exploited that. I have confidence we can turn it around, but as you said, it might not improve the win total a lot this year regardless.

 

[LongforDodd]

Syracuse had to go through the same thing of stopping and starting. Didn't seem to bother them.

It was home field. We flew almost to Canada to play a football game.

 

[yeti92]

It was home field. We flew almost to Canada to play a football game.

Its a 2 hour flight, this excuse making is ridiculous.

 

[LongforDodd]

Its a 2 hour flight, this excuse making is ridiculous.

Gotcha’

 

[takethepoints]

What I take out of that picture is how full of **** 247 is. When you factor in our high school recruits and transfers from other schools, we've been top 25 both of the last 2 years (top 15 last year). And we're trending that way again. To say the quality if our roster is similar to 4 years ago is demonstrably false.

(BTW, I just looked up our current roster composite ranking (where 247 takes into account everyone on the roster right now), and we're #34. I then went back 4 years and it was ranked #54.)

Yet, as the graph above shows, our performance has deteriorated. Hmmmmmmm.

It's been pointed out here before: performance is a product of good athletes and coaching that can take advantage of them. I don't think there's much question that we are doing better in recruiting. It's the second part that seems to be the problem so far. Let's hope for everyone's sanity here that the second part begins to show up this year.