Win Total Predictions

[Heisman's Ghost]

The offense was the best defense for GT yesterday. Hold TOP and make long drives. They weren’t quite good enough to do it every single time and Ole Miss took advantage of everything, especially when handed good field position.

I just don’t think Wake is as good as Ole Miss defensively at keeping GT out of the end zone, or as good offensively to convert almost every opportunity.

But the defense seems very momentum-prone this year so I think getting at least one stop or held to FG early PLUS enough offense to get an early lead will be key. The offense hasn’t been drying out for an entire half like it did against Louisville in the last couple of weeks, so if they can get a lead I like the chances a lot.

Wake is not nearly the challenge that Ole Miss proved to be on either side of the ball. They are as they have seemingly always have been, well coached, fundamentally sound, and a team that will make you work for the win. If we can somehow get a three and out in each half, then I like our chances unless we turn the ball over.

 

[JacketFan137]

Wake is not nearly the challenge that Ole Miss proved to be on either side of the ball. They are as they have seemingly always have been, well coached, fundamentally sound, and a team that will make you work for the win. If we can somehow get a three and out in each half, then I like our chances unless we turn the ball over.

this team needs to just start blitzing like crazy and go strictly for turnovers. we are not stopping anyone anyway, i would rather go down swinging and try to make something happen rather than play bend but don’t break defense. we don’t really have the edge rushing to rush with 4 and generate any pressure

 

[BuzzStone]

A wise coach once said its never as good or as bad as it seems. We will turn things around

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I originally projected 7 wins. I’m feeling a lot more pessimistic now. Key characterized our challenge after the first game. “Our margin for error is small.”

I only see one sure win left on the schedule. Every other game will require us to maintain a high level of discipline and make few mistakes. All the games left, other than our one remaining sure win, may come down to fluke plays, luck, penalties or some player having a good day or bad day for us to win. We are not good enough yet for any of our winnable games to be more than a 50/50 chance.

Not what I was expecting but I did not know our defense would be this bad and that our kicking game would still be such a liability.

I will still watch and support but feeling pessimistic.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I originally projected 7 wins. I’m feeling a lot more pessimistic now. Key characterized our challenge after the first game. “Our margin for error is small.”

I only see one sure win left on the schedule. Every other game will require us to maintain a high level of discipline and make few mistakes. All the games left, other than our one remaining sure win, may come down to fluke plays, luck, penalties or some player having a good day or bad day for us to win. We are not good enough yet for any of our winnable games to be more than a 50/50 chance.

Not what I was expecting but I did not know our defense would be this bad and that our kicking game would still be such a liability.

I will still watch and support but feeling pessimistic.

Sadly agree. My original projection was 5 and probably still is. The 90% likely range is now between 2 and 6 for me though rather than 4 to 7 wins. (My range prediction is as inaccurate as my mean prediction.)

Like baseball, I'll continue to watch (some) and make contributions, but without the past naïve optimism.

 

[Thwg777]

I wouldn’t dismiss Bowling Green as a sure win. Don’t get me wrong, we should win. I didn’t see their game against Michigan but the box score doesn’t look worlds different between the two teams. And same ultimate outcome as us last week with a 25 point loss - but Michigan is better than Old Piss.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I originally projected 7 wins. I’m feeling a lot more pessimistic now. Key characterized our challenge after the first game. “Our margin for error is small.”

I only see one sure win left on the schedule. Every other game will require us to maintain a high level of discipline and make few mistakes. All the games left, other than our one remaining sure win, may come down to fluke plays, luck, penalties or some player having a good day or bad day for us to win. We are not good enough yet for any of our winnable games to be more than a 50/50 chance.

Not what I was expecting but I did not know our defense would be this bad and that our kicking game would still be such a liability.

I will still watch and support but feeling pessimistic.

This.

 

[tmhunter52]

I wish you were correct. I have not seen any defenders that actually impact our games.

When an opposing QB lays the wood to your DB and scores, you know you have problems…

 

[JacketFan137]

I originally projected 7 wins. I’m feeling a lot more pessimistic now. Key characterized our challenge after the first game. “Our margin for error is small.”

I only see one sure win left on the schedule. Every other game will require us to maintain a high level of discipline and make few mistakes. All the games left, other than our one remaining sure win, may come down to fluke plays, luck, penalties or some player having a good day or bad day for us to win. We are not good enough yet for any of our winnable games to be more than a 50/50 chance.

Not what I was expecting but I did not know our defense would be this bad and that our kicking game would still be such a liability.

I will still watch and support but feeling pessimistic.

special teams and defense still being an issue is such a disappointment. hard to think we pick up a lot of wins without getting those two things under control. coaching and talent in those phases are looking very suspect

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Week 3 SP+ has GT moving from -1.0 to -4.4

24.5 (74) for Offense, 28.8 (85) Defense, and -.2 (100) for Special Teams

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents' SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data located behind a paywall on the Unabated site. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Here is what I have after week 3:
Louisville (neutral site) / Loss / 0%
SC State / Win / 100%
@ Ole Miss / Loss / 0%
@ Wake / +4 / 37.88%
Bowling Green / -14 / 84.57%
@ Miami / +19.5 / 8.47%
BC / -3 / 57.63%
UNC / +18.5 / 9.26%
@ UVA / -8.5 / 75%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
Syracuse / +14.5 / 14.27%
UGA / +32 / 0.53%

Projected Win Total of 4.08 wins.

I also ran a Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 iterations to get a distribution of wins:

Georgia Tech	ACC	AVERAGE:	3.9384​		# WINS	FREQ	%
		MODE:	4​		0​	0​	0.00%​
		STDEV:	1.073741​		1​	79​	0.79%​
		MIN:	1​		2​	724​	7.24%​
		MAX:	8​		3​	2622​	26.22%​
					4​	3623​	36.23%​
					5​	2293​	22.93%​
					6​	583​	5.83%​
					7​	72​	0.72%​
					8​	4​	0.04%​
					9​	0​	0.00%​
					10​	0​	0.00%​
					11​	0​	0.00%​
					12​	0​	0.00%​

 

[Northeast Stinger]

special teams and defense still being an issue is such a disappointment. hard to think we pick up a lot of wins without getting those two things under control. coaching and talent in those phases are looking very suspect

When I watch other teams calmly make a 40 yard field goal or punt without drama I find myself exclaiming, “How did they do that ?!!!”

 

[RamblinCharger]

I thought 7 originally with wins over Louisville and Wake. It's now 6 but it is a must win this week.

 

[stech81]

Week 3 SP+ has GT moving from -1.0 to -4.4

24.5 (74) for Offense, 28.8 (85) Defense, and -.2 (100) for Special Teams

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents' SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data located behind a paywall on the Unabated site. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Here is what I have after week 3:
Louisville (neutral site) / Loss / 0%
SC State / Win / 100%
@ Ole Miss / Loss / 0%
@ Wake / +4 / 37.88%
Bowling Green / -14 / 84.57%
@ Miami / +19.5 / 8.47%
BC / -3 / 57.63%
UNC / +18.5 / 9.26%
@ UVA / -8.5 / 75%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
Syracuse / +14.5 / 14.27%
UGA / +32 / 0.53%

Projected Win Total of 4.08 wins.

I also ran a Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 iterations to get a distribution of wins:

Georgia Tech	ACC	AVERAGE:	3.9384​		# WINS	FREQ	%
		MODE:	4​		0​	0​	0.00%​
		STDEV:	1.073741​		1​	79​	0.79%​
		MIN:	1​		2​	724​	7.24%​
		MAX:	8​		3​	2622​	26.22%​
					4​	3623​	36.23%​
					5​	2293​	22.93%​
					6​	583​	5.83%​
					7​	72​	0.72%​
					8​	4​	0.04%​
					9​	0​	0.00%​
					10​	0​	0.00%​
					11​	0​	0.00%​
					12​	0​	0.00%​

That's a lot of work I just guess 6 wins sounds good.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Week 3 SP+ has GT moving from -1.0 to -4.4

24.5 (74) for Offense, 28.8 (85) Defense, and -.2 (100) for Special Teams

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents' SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data located behind a paywall on the Unabated site. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Here is what I have after week 3:
Louisville (neutral site) / Loss / 0%
SC State / Win / 100%
@ Ole Miss / Loss / 0%
@ Wake / +4 / 37.88%
Bowling Green / -14 / 84.57%
@ Miami / +19.5 / 8.47%
BC / -3 / 57.63%
UNC / +18.5 / 9.26%
@ UVA / -8.5 / 75%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
Syracuse / +14.5 / 14.27%
UGA / +32 / 0.53%

Projected Win Total of 4.08 wins.

I also ran a Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 iterations to get a distribution of wins:

Georgia Tech	ACC	AVERAGE:	3.9384​		# WINS	FREQ	%
		MODE:	4​		0​	0​	0.00%​
		STDEV:	1.073741​		1​	79​	0.79%​
		MIN:	1​		2​	724​	7.24%​
		MAX:	8​		3​	2622​	26.22%​
					4​	3623​	36.23%​
					5​	2293​	22.93%​
					6​	583​	5.83%​
					7​	72​	0.72%​
					8​	4​	0.04%​
					9​	0​	0.00%​
					10​	0​	0.00%​
					11​	0​	0.00%​
					12​	0​	0.00%​

Now all we have to do is tackle to win those winnable games .......

Thanks for the analysis. Any Monte Carlo analysis is only as good as it's assumptions. But I have no better.

 

[Lil G]

Not sure where to put this but just wanted to say I’m very glad we play Syracuse later in the season so we will have more film on them. I think they’re going to have a good season and will be big game for us.
After this week they play Clemson, UNC and FSU. Will probably be picked as underdog for each, but I fully expect them to win one of those. Their quarterback looks like a Sims that throws 65% under a really cool scheme.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I’m hoping this week we start seeing a huge improvement and by October we’re humming on all cylinders.

 

[CEB]

Not sure where to put this but just wanted to say I’m very glad we play Syracuse later in the season so we will have more film on them. I think they’re going to have a good season and will be big game for us.
After this week they play Clemson, UNC and FSU. Will probably be picked as underdog for each, but I fully expect them to win one of those. Their quarterback looks like a Sims that throws 65% under a really cool scheme.

I don’t disagree with your take on Cuse coming into focus over the next four weeks. They appear to be playing well, but they don’t have much of a body of work. This weekend is probably their toughest test yet.
I was interested to see what they did against Purdue last week, but Purdue put the ball on the ground SEVEN times (lost 3 of them), added an interception for good measure and racked up about 150 yards in penalties. What I learned is that Purdue is not a very good football team right now. The good news is that I didn’t have to chose between watching our game and that one because that one was a sloppy mess.
Long and short; I don’t think we know much about Syracuse yet. What we do know is their QB is a smart and capable runner and given what we did with Dart last week, that’s a scary proposition. Their next four weeks could look really bad (Army, Clem, @unc, @fsu), but I would expect them to be a dangerous 6 win team rolling into ATL.

 

[Eli]

this team needs to just start blitzing like crazy and go strictly for turnovers. we are not stopping anyone anyway, i would rather go down swinging and try to make something happen rather than play bend but don’t break defense. we don’t really have the edge rushing to rush with 4 and generate any pressure

Blitzing doesn’t work when you have no one that can get to the QB. So we are going to blitz 6 and leave our already vulnerable qbs on an island? Not saying what we are doing is any better. Either way we go with our current talent level and ineffective d line coaching will get us lit up

 

[LongforDodd]

...
Not what I was expecting but I did not know our defense would be this bad and that our kicking game would still be such a liability.

....

I think Birr can be reliable if we can keep the rushers out of the backfield. That should be fixable. He showed that he can elevate his kicks and the few attempts he's made seem to be on line.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I think Birr can be reliable if we can keep the rushers out of the backfield. That should be fixable. He showed that he can elevate his kicks and the few attempts he's made seem to be on line.

Not disputing that Birr can be reliable, but we are currently 129 out of 131 teams in special teams efficiency.