Win Total Predictions

How many wins does Tech get this season?

  • Total voters
    310

CEB

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,196
MidtownJacket said:
Whatevsss I am down for 7 +1 in the Bowl.

Book it.
Click to expand...
I’m with you.
1695344507855.gif
 

Heisman's Ghost

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,408
Location
Albany Georgia
GetYourBuzzOn said:
Week 3 SP+ has GT moving from -1.0 to -4.4

24.5 (74) for Offense, 28.8 (85) Defense, and -.2 (100) for Special Teams

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents' SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data located behind a paywall on the Unabated site. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Here is what I have after week 3:
Louisville (neutral site) / Loss / 0%
SC State / Win / 100%
@ Ole Miss / Loss / 0%
@ Wake / +4 / 37.88%
Bowling Green / -14 / 84.57%
@ Miami / +19.5 / 8.47%
BC / -3 / 57.63%
UNC / +18.5 / 9.26%
@ UVA / -8.5 / 75%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
Syracuse / +14.5 / 14.27%
UGA / +32 / 0.53%

Projected Win Total of 4.08 wins.

I also ran a Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 iterations to get a distribution of wins:

Georgia TechACCAVERAGE:
3.9384​
# WINSFREQ%
MODE:
4​
0​
0​
0.00%​
STDEV:
1.073741​
1​
79​
0.79%​
MIN:
1​
2​
724​
7.24%​
MAX:
8​
3​
2622​
26.22%​
4​
3623​
36.23%​
5​
2293​
22.93%​
6​
583​
5.83%​
7​
72​
0.72%​
8​
4​
0.04%​
9​
0​
0.00%​
10​
0​
0.00%​
11​
0​
0.00%​
12​
0​
0.00%​
Click to expand...
Interesting, but I will save you all that trouble...we will win a few, very few, and lose a lot but the team will be entertaining as long as King remains upright, no sure thing that.
 

33jacket

Helluva Engineer
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Location
Georgia
Vegas makes money by knowing alot.

4.5. Over under

As said before. We will have a better team but vegas is probably right. 5 wins doable. 4 could happen. 6 percentages go way down especially after this start.

Wake wins. Vegas is genius again.
 
roadkill

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,167
LongforDodd said:
what goes in to special teams efficiency?
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Our awful special teams ranking is dragged down by a couple of factors. It only uses FBS game data, so our performance in the SC St. game doesn’t count and the resulting sample size is so small that any single event has a large impact.

Our placekicker’s initial 0/2 field goal attempts obviously hurt our ranking, but the blocked field goal attempt at Ole Miss was a huge hit because it dragged down both our Field Goal Efficiency and our DFP (opponent field position). So, it's not surprising we are near the bottom of FBS.

We have to prevent blocked punts and Field Goals to expect success in this league. I’m hoping the blocked FG was an aberration since the adjustments made to prevent blocks have been largely successful since Key took over. In any case, Birr is 3/3 in unblocked FGs since taking over placekicking duties. And Shanahan was punting decently until he got hurt.
 
LongforDodd

LongforDodd

LatinxBreakfastTacos
Messages
3,055
roadkill said:
Our awful special teams ranking is dragged down by a couple of factors. It only uses FBS game data, so our performance in the SC St. game doesn’t count and the resulting sample size is so small that any single event has a large impact.

Our placekicker’s initial 0/2 field goal attempts obviously hurt our ranking, but the blocked field goal attempt at Ole Miss was a huge hit because it dragged down both our Field Goal Efficiency and our DFP (opponent field position). So, it's not surprising we are near the bottom of FBS.

We have to prevent blocked punts and Field Goals to expect success in this league. I’m hoping the blocked FG was an aberration since the adjustments made to prevent blocks have been largely successful since Key took over. In any case, Birr is 3/3 in unblocked FGs since taking over placekicking duties. And Shanahan was punting decently until he got hurt.
Click to expand...
Thanks for all that. All makes sense. I believe in Birr and whoever is kicking off. Alot more of our KO's are making it to the end zone. But Shanahan makes me nervous as he!!. Teams sometime seem to want to really go after him.
 
roadkill

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,167
LongforDodd said:
Thanks for all that. All makes sense. I believe in Birr and whoever is kicking off. Alot more of our KO's are making it to the end zone. But Shanahan makes me nervous as he!!. Teams sometime seem to want to really go after him.
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I believe Stewart is still doing our kickoffs, and doing well at it. That's why it's such a head-scratcher that he suddenly lost his mojo on placekicking.
 

Heisman's Ghost

Helluva Engineer
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4,408
Location
Albany Georgia
33jacket said:
Vegas makes money by knowing alot.

4.5. Over under

As said before. We will have a better team but vegas is probably right. 5 wins doable. 4 could happen. 6 percentages go way down especially after this start.

Wake wins. Vegas is genius again.
Click to expand...
I was just thinking that if Wake wins this game then my preseason prediction of 5 wins will probably prove to be overly optimistic. Sad state of affairs.
 
Thwg777

Thwg777

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
366
33jacket said:
Vegas makes money by knowing alot.

4.5. Over under

As said before. We will have a better team but vegas is probably right. 5 wins doable. 4 could happen. 6 percentages go way down especially after this start.

Wake wins. Vegas is genius again.
Click to expand...

Season over/under win bets are tough. The totals are generally suited to offer worse EV on the over since most bets are placed on over by fans looking for a season of action in one bet.
 
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