Well, the chances of us winning Coastal are a good bit less than beating Clemson.
Here's why. Our odds of beating Clemson were about 20%. Our odds of beating UVa (85%) and VT (39%) and Fluke (70%) works out to about 23%.
http://atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html
And that is just our end. We have to hope UM loses twice. UM is 42% likely to beat VT, 92% to beat UVa and 69% likely to beat Pitt. UM will probably lose one of those, but not two.
Stranger things have happened, but I'm more worried about us beating UVa and Fluke to make a bowl than I am optimistic about going to Coastal. Fortunately, all the players have to do is win the next one. I have no doubt they'll play their hardest and won't give up. They haven't all year.