UVA vs. Navy

[Techster]

Some of these guys came around before I started following recruiting and, searching for some historical rankings, apparently before that recruiting ranking industry developed into what it is today. I found it especially hard to find info on Donnie Davis, Quincy Carter, and Joe Hamilton. Notably, those guys also came around before flunkgate and APR. (That said, those guys may all have come regardless - I am just pointing out that some things have changed since we recruited them.)

Of the other guys you mentioned, here is what I found from ESPN's archives (some of these differ pretty significantly from some of your notes. That could just be different recruiting systems, but I just chose the first one that popped up on Google and, if anything, the fact that different systems rate guys so differently says something about the accuracy of the rating systems IMHO):
Demarius Bilbo - #25 QB (LINK)
Josh Nesbitt - #37 QB (LINK)
Steven Threet - # 64 QB (LINK)
Sean Renfree - #43 QB (LINK)

For comparison, I also took a look at some of CPJ's better QB commits. Seems most of them are rated by ESPN as "athletes" instead of QBs, but they are ranked very much in the same ballpark at their position (better actually) than the Gaily QBs.
Vad Lee - #16 athlete (LINK)
Justin Thomas - # 18 athlete (LINK)
Jaylend Ratliffe - # 37 athlete (LINK)
Jay Jones - # 48 athlete (LINK)
James Graham - #30 athlete (LINK)

Given what we are looking for out of a QB in CPJ's system, it looks like our recruiting is right on par with the recent guys you mentioned.

Pro tip: Whenever you use recruiting rankings, don't use ESPN. If you do use ESPN, you may want to use others as well. They are worst of the services, and are understaffed. I usually go by 247 or Rivals or Scout which are the two major services. I believe Scout just got bought out by 247.

For instance Josh Nesbitt:
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2007/josh-nesbitt-33930
https://247sports.com/Player/Joshua-Nesbitt-5957/high-school-39741

Sean Renfree:
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2008/sean-renfree-35311
https://247sports.com/Player/Sean-Renfree-24306/high-school-38973

Steven Threet:
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2007/steven-threet-31119
https://247sports.com/player/steven-threet-52589

For Hamilton you can check his bio on Ramblinwreck.com

As for Donnie Davis, it's been widely known that he was one of the top QBs that class, and a recruiting coup for GT. That was a BIG deal for GT then. In case you don't believe me:

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/145994/FSU-PENN-STATE-STRIKE-IT-RICH.html

Both schools got top-notch quarterbacks. SuperPrep's No. 1 quarterback, Donnie Davis of Burlington, N.C., is going to Georgia Tech and third-ranked Eric Zeier of Marietta, Ga., will attend Georgia.

(Another interesting quote from that article: "The Bulldog tradition is hard to beat," Wallace said. "Plus Georgia Tech can't get some kids because of their tough academic standards." It's a battle GT has always fought.)

Superprep was considered the "elite" of the high school honors back then. I actually UNDERsold Donnie Davis....my bad, Donnie!

Also, anything in the early 2000's and late 1990's were more individual driven like Max Emfinger, Tom Lemming (who later joined ESPN), Jamie Newberg (who I believe help created Rivals).

I tend to give the each guy the benefit of the doubt and give him the highest ranking depending on whichever service ranks him highest. I don't like for it to just fit my agenda.

 

[GTRX7]

The ESPN rankings also report the Scout score. Anyway, based on your system, using the highest rating, what is your understanding of how CPJ’s QBs have ranked? (And, for the record, those ESPN rankings don’t seem to far off based on their actual performances. Better that the projections cited from other sources with some of those guys way over ranked.)

 

[Techster]

The ESPN rankings also report the Scout score. Anyway, based on your system, using the highest rating, what is your understanding of how CPJ’s QBs have ranked? (And, for the record, those ESPN rankings don’t seem to far off based on their actual performances. Better that the projections cited from other sources with some of those guys way over ranked.)

I've always considered Vad and Justin a 4 Star. They were both rated 4 stars by one of the services. Vad didn't leave on the greatest terms, but we all saw a glimpse of what he could have been had he committed himself. 2012 season had every GT fan excited about his future. Even in 2013 there were some performances that gave us excitement about his future.

When you say "some of those guys were way over ranked", that's with the benefit of hindsight. Donnie Davis signed with the intentions of playing for Friedgen, but he was wasted by Lewis. The one year he actually played for Ralph, GT finally got a glimpse of what could have been. Donnie was instrumental in helping O'Leary rebuild GT after the Lewis fiasco. Donnie ended up having a really good career in the Arena League. It's a shame GT didn't hire O'Leary as Ross's successor to start with.

Joe Hamilton deserved every bit of his top 5 dual threat QB ranking...if not exceeded it.

Quincy Carter played up to his ranking...unfortunately for UGA, and not for GT. But we had Hamilton, so a win for us. Carter ended up getting drafted in the 2nd round.

Nesbitt was First Team All-ACC, and helped us to an ACC Championship and an OB. He's still the only QB under CPJ to win an ACC Championship. Well deserving of his 4 star ranking.

Threet was actually pretty talented. He just had the misfortune of transferring to schools that ended up hiring Spread Option coaches. (Seriously, read his history...you kinda feel sorry for him). Did he deserve his ranking? Maybe not, but in the right system he would have been pretty good.

Bilbo never really got a grip on the playbook from what I understand, but he was talented enough to play WR for GT and even had a pro career with the Cowboys. Of the QBs I listed, his performance was probably the furthest from his recruiting rankings.

Renfree was a 3 year starter at Duke, and had a good career. He ended up getting drafted by the Falcons.

You can be the judge if those guys deserved their rankings or not, but IMO, it appears GT's hit rate was better than average.

 

[GTRX7]

I've always considered Vad and Justin a 4 Star. They were both rated 4 stars by one of the services. Vad didn't leave on the greatest terms, but we all saw a glimpse of what he could have been had he committed himself. 2012 season had every GT fan excited about his future. Even in 2013 there were some performances that gave us excitement about his future.

When you say "some of those guys were way over ranked", that's with the benefit of hindsight. Donnie Davis signed with the intentions of playing for Friedgen, but he was wasted by Lewis. The one year he actually played for Ralph, GT finally got a glimpse of what could have been. Donnie was instrumental in helping O'Leary rebuild GT after the Lewis fiasco. Donnie ended up having a really good career in the Arena League. It's a shame GT didn't hire O'Leary as Ross's successor to start with.

Joe Hamilton deserved every bit of his top 5 dual threat QB ranking...if not exceeded it.

Quincy Carter played up to his ranking...unfortunately for UGA, and not for GT. But we had Hamilton, so a win for us. Carter ended up getting drafted in the 2nd round.

Nesbitt was First Team All-ACC, and helped us to an ACC Championship and an OB. He's still the only QB under CPJ to win an ACC Championship. Well deserving of his 4 star ranking.

Threet was actually pretty talented. He just had the misfortune of transferring to schools that ended up hiring Spread Option coaches. (Seriously, read his history...you kinda feel sorry for him). Did he deserve his ranking? Maybe not, but in the right system he would have been pretty good.

Bilbo never really got a grip on the playbook from what I understand, but he was talented enough to play WR for GT and even had a pro career with the Cowboys. Of the QBs I listed, his performance was probably the furthest from his recruiting rankings.

Renfree was a 3 year starter at Duke, and had a good career. He ended up getting drafted by the Falcons.

You can be the judge if those guys deserved their rankings or not, but IMO, it appears GT's hit rate was better than average.

As mentioned in my earlier post, I wasn't so much commenting on Davis, Carter, and Hamilton. I didn't have good recruiting ranking info on those guys, nor do I think they under-performed. I do think that Bilbo, Threet, and Renfree were all a bit over ranked as "top 10 pro QB prospects."

That said, my overall point was that CPJ's QB commits have not really been all that far (if at all) off the mark from Gailey's (certainly since the time of APR and Flunkgate). Someone seemed to be making the point that good QBs stopped coming here under CPJ. However, based on what we look for in a QB, I would argue that the recruiting credentials of Lee, Thomas, Ratliff, Jones, and Graham are just as good as those of Bilbo, Threet, and Renfree. According to Scout/Rivals/whatever, at least Lee, Thomas, and Graham were 4* players by at least one of those systems. And the list of schools that recruited Jay Jones contains a lot of the elite (Alablama, Auburn, Florida, UGA, Ohio St. etc.). That was my only point. I think it is disingenuous to say our QB recruiting somehow fell off a cliff because of CPJ/the option.

 

[Techster]

As mentioned in my earlier post, I wasn't so much commenting on Davis, Carter, and Hamilton. I didn't have good recruiting ranking info on those guys, nor do I think they under-performed. I do think that Bilbo, Threet, and Renfree were all a bit over ranked as "top 10 pro QB prospects."

That said, my overall point was that CPJ's QB commits have not really been all that far (if at all) off the mark from Gailey's (certainly since the time of APR and Flunkgate). Someone seemed to be making the point that good QBs stopped coming here under CPJ. However, based on what we look for in a QB, I would argue that the recruiting credentials of Lee, Thomas, Ratliff, Jones, and Graham are just as good as those of Bilbo, Threet, and Renfree. According to Scout/Rivals/whatever, at least Lee, Thomas, and Graham were 4* players by at least one of those systems. And the list of schools that recruited Jay Jones contains a lot of the elite (Alablama, Auburn, Florida, UGA, Ohio St. etc.). That was my only point. I think it is disingenuous to say our QB recruiting somehow fell off a cliff because of CPJ/the option.

Alright, now you're moving goal posts to fit YOUR narrative.

First, CPJ has been here 10 years. That's 2 years longer than O'Leary, 3 years longer than Chan Gailey, and 5 years longer than Ross.

Second, saying recruits "have not really been all that far off the mark" to fit your narrative is incredibly....what's the word you used? Disingenuous? You're trying to rate guys that aren't even in the same 2 tiers as players that were considered elite (Top 15 and 4/5 stars) to fit your narrative. If you want to play that game, Gailey himself would have buried CPJ.

Reggie Ball - #15 Dual Threat QB (2003)
Patrick Carter- #12 Dual Threat QB (2003)
Al Pena - #27 Pro QB (2003)
Jonathon Garner - #19 Pro QB (2005)
Byron Ingram - #35 Dual Threat QB (2006)

That's excluding the 3 elite guys (Nesbitt, Threet, Renfree) that came later. Either way you slice it, either by your definition or my definition, the recruiting at the QB position has fallen off if Gailey is recruiting twice as many of the QBs by your metrics in only 7 years versus CPJ's 10 years.

BTW, I hope CPJ can add another 4 star QB (Michael Barrett) before this class is over. This isn't about me being "right", it's about GT and how we have done better, and can do better. Not sure why so many GT fans are taking it personally.

 

[GTRX7]

I am not changing my narrative or being disengenuious in any way. If you read my very first post, I said I was not commenting on Davis, Hamilton, or Carter. I was comparing the Gaily guys to the CPJ guys (particularly given the current landscape after Flunk Gate and with APR). And I am not still not sure how your stats show that Gailey “blew away” CPJ in this regard. I listed 5 QBs recruited by CPJ that were top 50 guys at their position, three of which were 4* recruits by your services. I am sorry you want to ignore the ESPN info that doesn’t fit your narrative.

To be fair to you, I followed Tech football closely during the Gailey years, but not as much recruiting. I am surprised to see your list of Carter, Pena, Garner and Ingram as guys that committed and were considered top prospects. I have never heard of a single one of those guys. Did any play a single down? Surprises me they were so good when our actual QBs were AJ Suggs (washout at UT), Reggie Ball (who I loved but was inconsistant), and Taylor Bennett. With all the elite guys we supposedly brought in, maybe that says something about either the accuracy of their rankings or coaching at that time?

Either way, seems you and I can agree to disagree on the level of QB recruiting recently. Doesn’t sound like either of us will change the other’s mind.

 

[Techster]

I am not changing my narrative or being disengenuious in any way. If you read my very first post, I said I was not commenting on Davis, Hamilton, or Carter. I was comparing the Gaily guys to the CPJ guys (particularly given the current landscape after Flunk Gate and with APR). And I am not still not sure how your stats show that Gailey “blew away” CPJ in this regard. I listed 5 QBs recruited by CPJ that were top 50 guys at their position, three of which were 4* recruits by your services. I am sorry you want to ignore the ESPN info that doesn’t fit your narrative.

How did I ignore the ESPN stuff when I flat out said "I tend to give the each guy the benefit of the doubt and give him the highest ranking depending on whichever service ranks him highest. I don't like for it to just fit my agenda."

BTW, ESPN was the only service that rated Vad Lee a 4 star recruit...which I classified him as. So I hope that doesn't mess up your narrative about my narrative...

Again, are you really trying to compare a guy ranked in the top 50 to a guy that's a 4/5 star guy and in the top 15 of his position? If we do that, I guess CPJ recruited quite a few classes comparable to the vaunted 2007 class. THAT is what you're basically doing...THAT is moving goal posts.

Also, let' not play the "Oh, so-and-so was really ranked that high...because he sure didn't play like it" game. I can point to many CPJ QBs that never took a snap at QB or never worked out, but I abhor fans who denigrate former SAs. That makes GT fans look like a-holes.

 

[Eli]

Donnie Davis. Top ranked Dual Threat QB in his class, #2 Overall QB (1991).
Quincy Carter (though he opted to play pro baseball after signing with GT). Top ranked dual threat QB in GA, top 5 in the nation that year (1996).
Joe Hamilton. #5 Ranked dual threat QB (1996).
Demarius Bilbo. Number #5 Pro QB in his class (2001).

To a lesser extent:

Josh Nesbitt. Top 10 dual threat QB (2007).
Steven Threet. #9 QB in his class (2007).
Sean Renfree was committed to sign to GT before CPJ came. He was the #9 Pro QB that year.

GT has had some pretty highly sought after QBs sign (or planning to sign) with us before.

Bilbo was a 3 star. Renfree was a 3 star #15 qb. So since 1990 we'e had four qbs ranked four star or higher ever play a down at GT. One of them being JT

 

[GTRX7]

...Again, are you really trying to compare a guy ranked in the top 50 to a guy that's a 4/5 star guy and in the top 15 of his position?...

Vad Lee - #16 athlete, 4* ESPN
Justin Thomas - # 18 athlete, 4* ESPN, also 4* 247
James Graham - #30 athlete, 4* ESPN, also 4* 247
Jaylend Ratliffe - # 37 athlete, 4* ESPN

As for Gailey's guys, I have not taken the time to check where all of your numbers are coming from, but I do trust you that they are coming from somewhere. I am just saying that these recruiting numbers are all over the place. I just looked at Reggie Ball, as I was surprised he was the "#15 Dual Threat QB (2003)." 247 had him as a 3*, Natl RK "NA", Dual RK "NA", and GA RK "NA." If you want to argue that Reggie Ball, Damariyus Bilbo, Patrick Carter, Steven Threet, Al Pena, Jonathon Garner, Byron Ingram, and Sean Renfree are in another world and blow away the CPJ guys listed above, suit yourself. Again, we will just have to agree to disagree. I am moving on.

 

[Techster]

Bilbo was a 3 star. Renfree was a 3 star #15 qb. So since 1990 we'e had four qbs ranked four star or higher ever play a down at GT. One of them being JT

Maybe by one service.

http://www.ramblinwreck.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/bilbo_damarius00.html

 

[Eli]

Maybe by one service.

http://www.ramblinwreck.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/bilbo_damarius00.html

Yeah never heard of MaxEmigfer or whatever the name is

 

[Techster]

Yeah never heard of MaxEmigfer or whatever the name is

LOL. It's probably cause you're younger than me.

Max Emfinger is considered one of the "godfathers" of recruiting. Along with Jamie Newburg, and Tom Lemming. Those guys had their own recruiting services that preceded the Rivals/Scout/247 services. Anyone who remembers the Border Wars recruiting shows remembers what I'm talking about.

You have to remember, the whole 4 or 5 star thing is recent development in recruiting services. Before it was based off of just positional rankings. Recruiting back then is nowhere close to recruiting now.

 

[RonJohn]

Too many QB Keepers and not nearly enough passing = Boring to me.

This is boring?

BBack up the middle is boring.

This is boring?


I must understand a different definition of the word.

 

[GTRX7]

There have been a lot of years that we have been near the top of the nation in explosive plays. This was not one of those years (though not embarrassing). Here is where we ranked nationally on number of long plays from scrimmage:
20+ yards (107th)
30+ (48th)
40+ (27th)
50+ (41st)
60 + (10th)

For reference, here is where we have ranked in some previous years in number of 30+ yard plays from scrimmage:
2016 - 30th
2015 - 56th
2014 - 29th
2013 - 10th
2012 - 11th
2011 - 5th
2010 - 23rd

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Alright, now you're moving goal posts to fit YOUR narrative.

First, CPJ has been here 10 years. That's 2 years longer than O'Leary, 3 years longer than Chan Gailey, and 5 years longer than Ross.

Second, saying recruits "have not really been all that far off the mark" to fit your narrative is incredibly....what's the word you used? Disingenuous? You're trying to rate guys that aren't even in the same 2 tiers as players that were considered elite (Top 15 and 4/5 stars) to fit your narrative. If you want to play that game, Gailey himself would have buried CPJ.

Reggie Ball - #15 Dual Threat QB (2003)
Patrick Carter- #12 Dual Threat QB (2003)
Al Pena - #27 Pro QB (2003)
Jonathon Garner - #19 Pro QB (2005)
Byron Ingram - #35 Dual Threat QB (2006)

That's excluding the 3 elite guys (Nesbitt, Threet, Renfree) that came later. Either way you slice it, either by your definition or my definition, the recruiting at the QB position has fallen off if Gailey is recruiting twice as many of the QBs by your metrics in only 7 years versus CPJ's 10 years.

BTW, I hope CPJ can add another 4 star QB (Michael Barrett) before this class is over. This isn't about me being "right", it's about GT and how we have done better, and can do better. Not sure why so many GT fans are taking it personally.

All those rankings you just listed creates a major contradiction in the Chan Gailey recruiter narrative. Gailey is widely regarded as a gem finder when it comes to spotting talent. We’ve seen many lowly rated guys play well above their rankings. But now, as you have pointed out, we see many highly rated guys play well below their ranking. So what does this really say about Chan?

 

[Techster]

All those rankings you just listed creates a major contradiction in the Chan Gailey recruiter narrative. Gailey is widely regarded as a gem finder when it comes to spotting talent. We’ve seen many lowly rated guys play well above their rankings. But now, as you have pointed out, we see many highly rated guys play well below their ranking. So what does this really say about Chan?

It says he developed every position but QB...which is ironic since he was a QB whisperer on the NFL level.

I was even surprised at how well he recruited at QB, but you can't argue with the results at other positions.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

It says he developed every position but QB...which is ironic since he was a QB whisperer on the NFL level.

I was even surprised at how well he recruited at QB, but you can't argue with the results at other positions.

This part doesn’t make sense to me. So if guys don’t pan out they’re still great recruits?

 

[Techster]

This part doesn’t make sense to me. So if guys don’t pan out they’re still great recruits?

Strictly talking about recruiting rankings. Just because they didn't pan out doesn't take away from the fact the guys were ranked high coming out of high school.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Strictly talking about recruiting rankings. Just because they didn't pan out doesn't take away from the fact the guys were ranked high coming out of high school.

OK, I guess that matters to some people. I care about how they pan out regardless of their rankings.

 

[Techster]

OK, I guess that matters to some people. I care about how they pan out regardless of their rankings.

No kidding man. I wish all guys lived up to their billing, but that's not how it always turns out.

No need to get on a high horses about this. All coaches miss on recruits. We all know recruiting is a hit or miss game. You just hope you hit more than you miss.