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ilovetheoption

Helluva Engineer
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2,816
So, I've heard there may be some interest in me doing a writeup so here goes.

To me, it really comes down to two matchups: GT's OL vs UVa's DL, and GT's LBs vs UVa QB Bryce Perkins. More on both of these later.

UVA D vs GT O.

This is where each coach makes their money, and each serve as unit coordinator as well as head coach.

Bronco Mendenhall teams are actually is temperamentally well suited to deal with Paul Johnson teams. Johnson's teams destroy undisciplined teams (within a reasonable talent range), and Bronco Mendenhall recruits, trains, and fields teams full of disciplined "do your job" types. Even though GT hung 36 on the Hoos last year, UVa has actually held up pretty well against the GT's run game since Mendenhall has arrived, being up at halftime 2 years ago (10-7) and holding GT to 4 yards a carry last year.

UVa runs a power 3-4 on defense, and is nominally stout up front. You're looking at a starting 3 of
DE (6'4, 305) Eli Hanback
NT (6'1, 290) Jordan Redmond
DE (6'1, 270) Aaron Faumui

Backup DL (6'5, 280) Dylan Thompson

This is NOT what UVA thought the depth chart was going to look like before the season, or even 3 weeks ago.
Starters Richard Burney and then Mandy Alonso (who GT wanted very badly as an OL, IIRC) have been injured, as well as some depth players, so the DL is PAPER thin at the moment. UVa relies on the DL to keep their LB's clean, and worn down DL in the 2nd half would mean tackles and centers running free on LB's, which means GT marching up and down the field.

UVa's linebackers are good, with 6'7, 205 lb OLB/Scarecrow Charles Snowden being particularly effective due to the fact that he being blocked by people used to dealing with Linebackers and Defensive Linemen, while he is in fact a Small Forward. I'm also going to mention that ILB Zane Zandier has perhaps the best linebacker nickname ever created in "ZZ Stop".

That said, they're not good enough to take over games themselves with individual dominance, so the play of the LB's is highly influenced by the play of the DL.

If the GT offense gets a couple drives going early, even if they don't score TD's, it bodes very well for the rest of the game, as those body punches will accumulate and the 2nd half may look like a tractor pull, with GT grinding up and down the field on a worn out, injury depleted UVa DL, reminiscent of Zach Laskey grinding up UGA's defense 6 yards a pop a couple years ago. If, on the other hand, Uva can get a couple stops early, they may be able to stay fresh enough to slow GT down for the rest of the game.

UVa's secondary is rock solid. Better, frankly, than GT's WR's, but we all know that's a minor factor in any GT game.

This side of the ball will be won and lost in the trenches. Honestly, I think UVa's D is in trouble. I think this may look somewhat like the VT game, where Johnson doesn't try to do much option, and just says "F it, I'm gonna run it down your throat, what are you gonna do about it?".

GT is going to score. The question, then, is will UVa be able to score enough to keep up?

To be continued.
 

ilovetheoption

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,816
A 6'7" LB? If our A-backs hit him straight up, it could still be a chop..er, cut block. <hyperbole, people>
Actual game photo of him rushing the passer:
Slender-Man.jpg
 

ilovetheoption

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,816
UVA O Vs. GT D

Offensively, UVa runs a bog-standard NCAA power spread.

We're going to line up in the shotgun, we're going to do read option. We're going to do veer invert. We're going to run a lot of just old fashioned "power". We'll do some tunnel screens, we'll occasionally go downfield. We'll criminally underutilize the Tight End.

Offensive Coordinator Robert Anae is essentially a homeless man's Urban Meyer. THAT SAID, it works alright, because we've got some pieces.

The OL is all within an inch of 6'5 and within 5 pounds of 310. At the risk of downtalking my team, they're decidedly "meh". They're neither dominant nor awful. They'll beat up on weak teams, they'll get chewed up by great DL's.

At RB, Jordan Ellis is the guy. 5'10, 225, and I'd put him at "slightly above meh". Like, he's a rock solid back. Runs hard, has a little speed, gets the yards he's supposed to get, and sometimes a little more. There are 5 guys just like him in the ACC. He's maybe SLIGHTLY better than like a Cade Carney at Wake Forest? If he gets going, he can easily tote the rock 25 times for 135 and wear your defense out.

At WR we've got some guys. Oz Zaccheus is a little waterbug wr. 5'8 but kinda thick. He'd be a MFER of an A-back, and we use him like one. End arounds, spot passes, tunnel screens, occasionally sneak him behind the defense. He owns a lot of records at UVA, but just through being "good" for 4 years. He's never been "great". Opposite him we've got Hasise Dubois, who in addition to sounding like a character in a southern gothic novel, is a solid big power possession WR. Tavares Kelly is a little waterbug who will be Oz when Oz graduates, Joe Reed is a great return man and meh wide receiver.

I think you get the point. Our offense is like if you were playing a football video game, and created an entire unit whose overall ratings was between 75 and 80. There are no standouts, there are no anchors. It's just a bunch of solid guys, who play solid football, and do what they're supposed to do reasonably well.

Then you get to the QB, and he's an interesting character. Bryce Perkins = Josh Nesbitt. In my impression, he's almost an identical player. Same size, same toughness, same quiet leadership. Perkins is MAYBE a little faster. Nesbitt had MAYBE a little more power. But Nesbitt was plenty fast, and Perkins has plenty of power.

Also similar as passers: strong enough arm, and accurate enough to hit WR's when the offense is keying on the run, but marginal enough as a passer that you couldn't construct offenses around their passing. Both guys were going to be runners first, and passers as a changeup.

If you ever wanted to know what Nesbitt would have looked like in a different offense, watch UVa this year. Perkins is the straw that stirs UVa's drink. IN any given game, he's going to throw for about 200 yards, complete about 60% of his passes, throw 2 touchdowns and 1 interception and run for another 75 and a touchdown.

Seriously, look at his game log: http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3675812/bryce-perkins

He's REMARKABLY consistent. I'm not going to do the research/math, but I'd be willing to bet he's got one of the smallest standard deviations in performance among P5 QB's. You're just going to get what you're going to get from him.

The teams that have beat UVa have largely been the teams that have been able to control him. I know that's SOMEWHAT of a "no duh" statement, given that he's the QB, but really UVa's offense goes as Bryce Perkins goes.

So, with that said, I don't think that GT can control him. You guys have gotten gashed by mobile QB's this year, and Perkins is the best one you'll face, IMO. I think he's going to get his, and I think UVa's going to get theirs, which means I think this game is going to be a shootout.

So, who wins the shootout?

I have a heart vs head situation going here. My heart says "while I think GT's Oline rolls UVa's Dline, I STILL don't think TQM is really all that great of a ball distributor, and should really be playing A-back, and so uva will turn up the heat, force him to make reads, and he'll miss enough of them that GT misses some turns, and Perkins runs rampant and makes Brant Mitchell miss enough times and badly enough that some member of this board gets arrested for making threatening calls to his family's house after the game. Wells misses his first kick of the year, and UVA sneaks by like 38-41 or something."

Seriously, there's a VERY real possibility that Perkins jumps directly over Mitchell's head on the way to the endzone.

My head says "GT's Oline rolls UVa's Dline, and that's sort of the beginning and end of it. Perkins turns it over some, because A) that's what perkins does, and B) that's what GT's defense does, and GT sneaks by like 38-41 or something"

As we know in life, we all like to pretend we follow our heads, but we all follow our hearts:

Final Score: 41-38 UVa
 

TheTechGuy

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
922
UVA O Vs. GT D

Offensively, UVa runs a bog-standard NCAA power spread.

We're going to line up in the shotgun, we're going to do read option. We're going to do veer invert. We're going to run a lot of just old fashioned "power". We'll do some tunnel screens, we'll occasionally go downfield. We'll criminally underutilize the Tight End.

Offensive Coordinator Robert Anae is essentially a homeless man's Urban Meyer. THAT SAID, it works alright, because we've got some pieces.

The OL is all within an inch of 6'5 and within 5 pounds of 310. At the risk of downtalking my team, they're decidedly "meh". They're neither dominant nor awful. They'll beat up on weak teams, they'll get chewed up by great DL's.

At RB, Jordan Ellis is the guy. 5'10, 225, and I'd put him at "slightly above meh". Like, he's a rock solid back. Runs hard, has a little speed, gets the yards he's supposed to get, and sometimes a little more. There are 5 guys just like him in the ACC. He's maybe SLIGHTLY better than like a Cade Carney at Wake Forest? If he gets going, he can easily tote the rock 25 times for 135 and wear your defense out.

At WR we've got some guys. Oz Zaccheus is a little waterbug wr. 5'8 but kinda thick. He'd be a MFER of an A-back, and we use him like one. End arounds, spot passes, tunnel screens, occasionally sneak him behind the defense. He owns a lot of records at UVA, but just through being "good" for 4 years. He's never been "great". Opposite him we've got Hasise Dubois, who in addition to sounding like a character in a southern gothic novel, is a solid big power possession WR. Tavares Kelly is a little waterbug who will be Oz when Oz graduates, Joe Reed is a great return man and meh wide receiver.

I think you get the point. Our offense is like if you were playing a football video game, and created an entire unit whose overall ratings was between 75 and 80. There are no standouts, there are no anchors. It's just a bunch of solid guys, who play solid football, and do what they're supposed to do reasonably well.

Then you get to the QB, and he's an interesting character. Bryce Perkins = Josh Nesbitt. In my impression, he's almost an identical player. Same size, same toughness, same quiet leadership. Perkins is MAYBE a little faster. Nesbitt had MAYBE a little more power. But Nesbitt was plenty fast, and Perkins has plenty of power.

Also similar as passers: strong enough arm, and accurate enough to hit WR's when the offense is keying on the run, but marginal enough as a passer that you couldn't construct offenses around their passing. Both guys were going to be runners first, and passers as a changeup.

If you ever wanted to know what Nesbitt would have looked like in a different offense, watch UVa this year. Perkins is the straw that stirs UVa's drink. IN any given game, he's going to throw for about 200 yards, complete about 60% of his passes, throw 2 touchdowns and 1 interception and run for another 75 and a touchdown.

Seriously, look at his game log: http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3675812/bryce-perkins

He's REMARKABLY consistent. I'm not going to do the research/math, but I'd be willing to bet he's got one of the smallest standard deviations in performance among P5 QB's. You're just going to get what you're going to get from him.

The teams that have beat UVa have largely been the teams that have been able to control him. I know that's SOMEWHAT of a "no duh" statement, given that he's the QB, but really UVa's offense goes as Bryce Perkins goes.

So, with that said, I don't think that GT can control him. You guys have gotten gashed by mobile QB's this year, and Perkins is the best one you'll face, IMO. I think he's going to get his, and I think UVa's going to get theirs, which means I think this game is going to be a shootout.

So, who wins the shootout?

I have a heart vs head situation going here. My heart says "while I think GT's Oline rolls UVa's Dline, I STILL don't think TQM is really all that great of a ball distributor, and should really be playing A-back, and so uva will turn up the heat, force him to make reads, and he'll miss enough of them that GT misses some turns, and Perkins runs rampant and makes Brant Mitchell miss enough times and badly enough that some member of this board gets arrested for making threatening calls to his family's house after the game. Wells misses his first kick of the year, and UVA sneaks by like 38-41 or something."

Seriously, there's a VERY real possibility that Perkins jumps directly over Mitchell's head on the way to the endzone.

My head says "GT's Oline rolls UVa's Dline, and that's sort of the beginning and end of it. Perkins turns it over some, because A) that's what perkins does, and B) that's what GT's defense does, and GT sneaks by like 38-41 or something"

As we know in life, we all like to pretend we follow our heads, but we all follow our hearts:

Final Score: 41-38 UVa
Had not realized that UVA's offense has only scored 30+ points against one Power 5 team this year, 31 against UNC. Also, it would be interesting to see GT's record if they had UVA's schedule.
 

ilovetheoption

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,816
Had not realized that UVA's offense has only scored 30+ points against one Power 5 team this year, 31 against UNC. Also, it would be interesting to see GT's record if they had UVA's schedule.
Bronco is a big believer in scheduling easy. If you're not realistically in a position to make the playoffs, strength of schedule doesn't really matter at all
 

RamblinRed

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
5,902
Really good writeups.

3 weeks ago I would have picked UVA by 10-14 pts - but their D Line injuries really change the complexion of their team and this game.
The last couple of opponents have been able to run on them because of the DLine injuries.
Mendenhall has been throughout his career a really good coach at defending the TO.

As usual i'd say this comes down to turnovers. If GT has a positive TO margin I think they win, if they have a negative one they lose.

I do think our defense is going to struggle with Perkins. I'd agree that he is the best dual option QB we have faced this year. And I also agree he is likely to get his so the key defensively becomes more don't let anybody else get theirs.
He is sort of like Perry at Miami but much better which scares me with the tackling issues we have.

I also think like you do this is a high scoring game. One or two stops, one or two TO's are going to make the difference.

Let's go get win #7.
 

ilovetheoption

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,816
@ilovetheoption, would you start TM or TO at QB? Would you rotate them in and out?


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Man, I have a hard time seeing how it could have been handled any better by Johnson.

Marshall may not be the platonic ideal win the triple option quarterback but if he's performing the best in practice I think you kind of have to keep starting him, or risk losing the team. They are all in practice. They see what's going on. They know who's playing better.

that said, you give it a couple series and if Marshall isn't producing you plug Oliver in and see what he can do.

Then you ride the hot hand from there.

If Marshall is producing for those first few series you keep him in and that sort of your answer.
 

kittysniper101

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
174
UVA O Vs. GT D

Offensively, UVa runs a bog-standard NCAA power spread.

We're going to line up in the shotgun, we're going to do read option. We're going to do veer invert. We're going to run a lot of just old fashioned "power". We'll do some tunnel screens, we'll occasionally go downfield. We'll criminally underutilize the Tight End.

Offensive Coordinator Robert Anae is essentially a homeless man's Urban Meyer. THAT SAID, it works alright, because we've got some pieces.

The OL is all within an inch of 6'5 and within 5 pounds of 310. At the risk of downtalking my team, they're decidedly "meh". They're neither dominant nor awful. They'll beat up on weak teams, they'll get chewed up by great DL's.

At RB, Jordan Ellis is the guy. 5'10, 225, and I'd put him at "slightly above meh". Like, he's a rock solid back. Runs hard, has a little speed, gets the yards he's supposed to get, and sometimes a little more. There are 5 guys just like him in the ACC. He's maybe SLIGHTLY better than like a Cade Carney at Wake Forest? If he gets going, he can easily tote the rock 25 times for 135 and wear your defense out.

At WR we've got some guys. Oz Zaccheus is a little waterbug wr. 5'8 but kinda thick. He'd be a MFER of an A-back, and we use him like one. End arounds, spot passes, tunnel screens, occasionally sneak him behind the defense. He owns a lot of records at UVA, but just through being "good" for 4 years. He's never been "great". Opposite him we've got Hasise Dubois, who in addition to sounding like a character in a southern gothic novel, is a solid big power possession WR. Tavares Kelly is a little waterbug who will be Oz when Oz graduates, Joe Reed is a great return man and meh wide receiver.

I think you get the point. Our offense is like if you were playing a football video game, and created an entire unit whose overall ratings was between 75 and 80. There are no standouts, there are no anchors. It's just a bunch of solid guys, who play solid football, and do what they're supposed to do reasonably well.

Then you get to the QB, and he's an interesting character. Bryce Perkins = Josh Nesbitt. In my impression, he's almost an identical player. Same size, same toughness, same quiet leadership. Perkins is MAYBE a little faster. Nesbitt had MAYBE a little more power. But Nesbitt was plenty fast, and Perkins has plenty of power.

Also similar as passers: strong enough arm, and accurate enough to hit WR's when the offense is keying on the run, but marginal enough as a passer that you couldn't construct offenses around their passing. Both guys were going to be runners first, and passers as a changeup.

If you ever wanted to know what Nesbitt would have looked like in a different offense, watch UVa this year. Perkins is the straw that stirs UVa's drink. IN any given game, he's going to throw for about 200 yards, complete about 60% of his passes, throw 2 touchdowns and 1 interception and run for another 75 and a touchdown.

Seriously, look at his game log: http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3675812/bryce-perkins

He's REMARKABLY consistent. I'm not going to do the research/math, but I'd be willing to bet he's got one of the smallest standard deviations in performance among P5 QB's. You're just going to get what you're going to get from him.

The teams that have beat UVa have largely been the teams that have been able to control him. I know that's SOMEWHAT of a "no duh" statement, given that he's the QB, but really UVa's offense goes as Bryce Perkins goes.

So, with that said, I don't think that GT can control him. You guys have gotten gashed by mobile QB's this year, and Perkins is the best one you'll face, IMO. I think he's going to get his, and I think UVa's going to get theirs, which means I think this game is going to be a shootout.

So, who wins the shootout?

I have a heart vs head situation going here. My heart says "while I think GT's Oline rolls UVa's Dline, I STILL don't think TQM is really all that great of a ball distributor, and should really be playing A-back, and so uva will turn up the heat, force him to make reads, and he'll miss enough of them that GT misses some turns, and Perkins runs rampant and makes Brant Mitchell miss enough times and badly enough that some member of this board gets arrested for making threatening calls to his family's house after the game. Wells misses his first kick of the year, and UVA sneaks by like 38-41 or something."

Seriously, there's a VERY real possibility that Perkins jumps directly over Mitchell's head on the way to the endzone.

My head says "GT's Oline rolls UVa's Dline, and that's sort of the beginning and end of it. Perkins turns it over some, because A) that's what perkins does, and B) that's what GT's defense does, and GT sneaks by like 38-41 or something"

As we know in life, we all like to pretend we follow our heads, but we all follow our hearts:

Final Score: 41-38 UVa

Thanks for the thorough breakdown! I really enjoyed your prose as well; think you would do a better job than most commentators.
 

GT_05

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,370
Man, I have a hard time seeing how it could have been handled any better by Johnson.

Marshall may not be the platonic ideal win the triple option quarterback but if he's performing the best in practice I think you kind of have to keep starting him, or risk losing the team. They are all in practice. They see what's going on. They know who's playing better.

that said, you give it a couple series and if Marshall isn't producing you plug Oliver in and see what he can do.

Then you ride the hot hand from there.

If Marshall is producing for those first few series you keep him in and that sort of your answer.

That makes sense to me. The only reason I asked is that we seem to run a much different offense when TO is in compared to when TM is in. I thought the play calling may give either TO or TM an advantage against their banged up defense. Thanks for the awesome write up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,595
First, a big Thank You to @ilovetheoption for his excellent write up and writing!

Secondly, I agree that Mendenhall has done a very nice job there. I am not looking forward to this game. I think UVa is at least as talented as GT and maybe had slight edge until their injuries. I agree with @RamblinRed that this game will be decided by turnovers, just like Duke and Miami.
 

UgaBlows

Helluva Engineer
Messages
7,012
Thanks for the awesome and amusing write-up

Which ACC team has had the best success against Perkins and what was their recipe for success?
 
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