So, I've heard there may be some interest in me doing a writeup so here goes.
To me, it really comes down to two matchups: GT's OL vs UVa's DL, and GT's LBs vs UVa QB Bryce Perkins. More on both of these later.
UVA D vs GT O.
This is where each coach makes their money, and each serve as unit coordinator as well as head coach.
Bronco Mendenhall teams are actually is temperamentally well suited to deal with Paul Johnson teams. Johnson's teams destroy undisciplined teams (within a reasonable talent range), and Bronco Mendenhall recruits, trains, and fields teams full of disciplined "do your job" types. Even though GT hung 36 on the Hoos last year, UVa has actually held up pretty well against the GT's run game since Mendenhall has arrived, being up at halftime 2 years ago (10-7) and holding GT to 4 yards a carry last year.
UVa runs a power 3-4 on defense, and is nominally stout up front. You're looking at a starting 3 of
DE (6'4, 305) Eli Hanback
NT (6'1, 290) Jordan Redmond
DE (6'1, 270) Aaron Faumui
Backup DL (6'5, 280) Dylan Thompson
This is NOT what UVA thought the depth chart was going to look like before the season, or even 3 weeks ago.
Starters Richard Burney and then Mandy Alonso (who GT wanted very badly as an OL, IIRC) have been injured, as well as some depth players, so the DL is PAPER thin at the moment. UVa relies on the DL to keep their LB's clean, and worn down DL in the 2nd half would mean tackles and centers running free on LB's, which means GT marching up and down the field.
UVa's linebackers are good, with 6'7, 205 lb OLB/Scarecrow Charles Snowden being particularly effective due to the fact that he being blocked by people used to dealing with Linebackers and Defensive Linemen, while he is in fact a Small Forward. I'm also going to mention that ILB Zane Zandier has perhaps the best linebacker nickname ever created in "ZZ Stop".
That said, they're not good enough to take over games themselves with individual dominance, so the play of the LB's is highly influenced by the play of the DL.
If the GT offense gets a couple drives going early, even if they don't score TD's, it bodes very well for the rest of the game, as those body punches will accumulate and the 2nd half may look like a tractor pull, with GT grinding up and down the field on a worn out, injury depleted UVa DL, reminiscent of Zach Laskey grinding up UGA's defense 6 yards a pop a couple years ago. If, on the other hand, Uva can get a couple stops early, they may be able to stay fresh enough to slow GT down for the rest of the game.
UVa's secondary is rock solid. Better, frankly, than GT's WR's, but we all know that's a minor factor in any GT game.
This side of the ball will be won and lost in the trenches. Honestly, I think UVa's D is in trouble. I think this may look somewhat like the VT game, where Johnson doesn't try to do much option, and just says "F it, I'm gonna run it down your throat, what are you gonna do about it?".
GT is going to score. The question, then, is will UVa be able to score enough to keep up?
To be continued.
