Uncle Lou predicts seven wins for GT this year

[roadkill]

One item I noticed in his video was the extra bye week we get this fall. I hope we can leverage that to our advantage. It can help resolve minor injuries and give us more time to prep for opponents. Our post-bye week opponents are Duke, Miami, and NC State.

 

[UgaBlows]

It looks like the key break is with everyone below Syracuse. Seven of our eight ACC opponents have a better chance at the ACC title than GT. That doesn't mean they think we will go 1-7 against those teams, but it's not a good sign.

CC title odds (BetOnline_ag):
Florida State 14/5
Clemson 13/4
Miami 4/1
Louisville 7/1
NC State 7/1
Virginia Tech 15/2
SMU 16/1
North Carolina 30/1
Syracuse 33/1
California 75/1
Georgia Tech 80/1
Boston College 100/1
Duke 125/1
Pittsburgh 125/1
Virginia 125/1
Wake Forest 250/1
Stanford 500/1

Unreal, they think Cal, Cuse, and SMU have a better chance than Us?

 

[iceeater1969]

One item I noticed in his video was the extra bye week we get this fall. I hope we can leverage that to our advantage. It can help resolve minor injuries and give us more time to prep for opponents. Our post-bye week opponents are Duke, Miami, and NC State.

With every one recognizing our tough schedule, if we win a couple of big games ( louisville, vt, mia, ncst )and play the 3 tough against the 3 teams that are top 10 ( fsu, nd, uga) we could be near top 25. Because our players wont be opting out for draft, we could go to a good bowl. Just play old school gt football.

"Time to prep for opponents" has been what the good teams often had against us all of the cpj years. Fot mia and ncst Buster could have a few pass packages added based a season of film. Fake - Run right pass to left end deep. Worked in junior high and when we had calvin!

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Unreal, they think Cal, Cuse, and SMU have a better chance than Us?

The odds don't only take into account how good a team is, but how easy their path to the ACCCG is. Their conference schedules are notably weaker than ours.

 

[Ramble1885]

Honestly I would be fine with 7-5 and this schedule. It is a killer that you give up 2 home games in Ireland and Mercedez Benz against FSU and Notre Dame. I think that makes both of those games much more difficult.

Duke has a new coach, and it’s here so that’s def winnable. UNC at this point is always winnable, NC State is a home night game and spooky stuff always happens with that. The real wild card is VTech. They return all 22 of their starters but they went 7-6 like us last year and we haven’t lost in Blacksburg since 2012.

 

[UgaBlows]

Duke has a new coach, and it’s here so that’s def winnable. UNC at this point is always winnable, NC State is a home night game and spooky stuff always happens with that. The real wild card is VTech. They return all 22 of their starters but they went 7-6 like us last year and we haven’t lost in Blacksburg since 2012.

People are super high on VT but like you said, they had the same record as us last year and didn’t really have any quality wins. If nothing else we have a QB advantage over them.

 

[apatriot1776]

People are super high on VT but like you said, they had the same record as us last year and didn’t really have any quality wins. If nothing else we have a QB advantage over them.

It’s because VT has a cupcake OOC (playing two “P2” teams in Rutgers and Vanderbilt) and play 4 of the bottom 6 in conference. They could get 7 wins without beating a top 75 team let alone a top 25 team.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

People are super high on VT but like you said, they had the same record as us last year and didn’t really have any quality wins. If nothing else we have a QB advantage over them.

Last year we had an offensive FEI ranked 47th and a defensive FEI ranked 108th. VT was 51st in OFEI and 54th in DFEI. They return all 22 starters and figure to get better, not worse. Add in a manageable schedule and they might be a dark horse title game contender late in the season. Our offense has, IMO, better weapons but needs to overcome the turnover bug and our defense needs to improve drastically.

 

[1979jacket]

Fair and good analysis that is well thought out. He is right on depth issue, particularly on defense. We also have a very hard schedule. He might could hit us a bit harder on some transfer losses - we lost a couple of other transfers on defense that would start. He did his homework.

 

[stinger78]

Duke has a new coach, and it’s here so that’s def winnable. UNC at this point is always winnable, NC State is a home night game and spooky stuff always happens with that. The real wild card is VTech. They return all 22 of their starters but they went 7-6 like us last year and we haven’t lost in Blacksburg since 2012.

The last night NCSU game I went to at BDS was 2005 and there was some seriously spooky stuff that game. The CJ tip and INT right at the end was heartbreaking. The 2010 game at BDS was a nooner and it was a 100-degree September afternoon. Russell Wilson also led a beatdown that horrible day. It was the 20-year recognition for the 190 team, too. Ugh. Beating NCSU in football is always a good thing to do. I cannot think of a better venue for it than a Thursday evening at BDS.

 

[AugustaSwarm]

I think Uncle Lou was pretty fair in his assessment - at least he didn't let his mutt bias show thru too much.

I am hopeful that the portal additions on D combined with Santucci can help to restore some semblance of decency to our D. We have added some depth at DT (at least on paper) via the portal and getting Moore back from the portal. The return of Sylvain and the portal addition of Height will hopefully give us a better edge pass rush. Portal additions at LB and the continued development of our current players should result in better performance. The secondary should be solid again, but depth at CB could be an issue. The D should be better than last year, God knows it can't be much worse. Plus, the D began to play much better later in the year. Not sure that tells us much with a new DC and staff...

Our O should be solid again. The run game really came on strong as the season wore on and almost everyone has returned. I'll drop this one here - Eric Singleton Jr is a f'ing beast!

 

[takethepoints]

I agree with most of what he says on the basis of what we had last year. The O will be e repeat, imho, with perhaps a better year from King and Haynes. The WRs are right good country players too. I also think he's right about King being a gunslinger. That can lead to trouble, but it is also baked in; he's that kind of QB and it's a major reason he's as dangerous as he is. Justin Thomas was a gunslinger too. We need to learn to live with this.

But … I do think he's wrong about our DL. Yeah, we lost players who might have started this year. But what we bring back and brought in is good news for us. The main reason I say this is Lockett. His teeth would bring a fortune in Zanzibar. He was a frosh last year and wa already a force in the middle. For many years I've wanted Tech to look like BC used to at DT. When Matt Ryan was there they had a stream of 6'5" 320 - 340 DTs, all of them good athletes too boot. Lockett was like that last year when he was just learning. I think we have something special to look forward to from him. Then there's Biggers. I spared saying this for the last two years; he was too big for his frame at 350. Now he has lost 20 - 25 pounds. I expect this will lead to better performance due to increased flexibility and speed. And, mind, he was no slouch last year. Add in Scott and Van de Berg and the center looks like we could be miuch improved. DE is a problem if Slyvain isn't back to speed, but adding Height should help and the other players, while untried, appear close to prime time. Further, if one of our frosh makes the right decision, we'll have a potentially great talent there. He's pretty much on for the rest of the D, except he neglects to point out that many Tech players on that side were getting their first starting experience. The second year of that, albeit under another new DC, often makes a big difference in performance. We'll see.

And, yeah, the schedule sucks big time. That's the main thing standing in the way. But everybody has heard me on that.

 

[roadkill]

I think Uncle Lou was pretty fair in his assessment - at least he didn't let his mutt bias show thru too much.

I am hopeful that the portal additions on D combined with Santucci can help to restore some semblance of decency to our D. We have added some depth at DT (at least on paper) via the portal and getting Moore back from the portal. The return of Sylvain and the portal addition of Height will hopefully give us a better edge pass rush. Portal additions at LB and the continued development of our current players should result in better performance. The secondary should be solid again, but depth at CB could be an issue. The D should be better than last year, God knows it can't be much worse. Plus, the D began to play much better later in the year. Not sure that tells us much with a new DC and staff...

Our O should be solid again. The run game really came on strong as the season wore on and almost everyone has returned. I'll drop this one here - Eric Singleton Jr is a f'ing beast!

Perhaps some of the advanced stats gurus can chime in with better data, but it did seem like our defense improved a bit in the second half of last season.

Using FEI, 3 of the last 6 teams we played had top-25 offenses. Yet we allowed fewer points/game by almost a TD compared to our first 6 fbs opponents and improved even more for the last three games. There could be a number of different factors in play, including changing DCs and the small sample size. But I’m hopeful the improvement continues.

 

[slugboy]

Last year we had an offensive FEI ranked 47th and a defensive FEI ranked 108th. VT was 51st in OFEI and 54th in DFEI. They return all 22 starters and figure to get better, not worse. Add in a manageable schedule and they might be a dark horse title game contender late in the season. Our offense has, IMO, better weapons but needs to overcome the turnover bug and our defense needs to improve drastically.

To be optimistic on defense

1. There’s a lot of room to move up and
2. We overhauled the defensive staff with coaches that have been successful before

There are lots of reasons why the defense wouldn’t improve—we need more ballers/all-conference guys in the front 6/7. We made a lot of mistakes, and even if we fix some problems, any mismatch is something the other teams will take advantage of.

Being 108th is just terrible, though. If Santucci and company make somewhat of the impact this season that Faulkner and company did last season, a respectable 50th-60th defense would put us in more games.

 

[roadkill]

Last year we had an offensive FEI ranked 47th and a defensive FEI ranked 108th. VT was 51st in OFEI and 54th in DFEI. They return all 22 starters and figure to get better, not worse. Add in a manageable schedule and they might be a dark horse title game contender late in the season. Our offense has, IMO, better weapons but needs to overcome the turnover bug and our defense needs to improve drastically.

Not trying to split hairs here, I just want to confirm my understanding, or lack of, the FEI stats. I read our Offensive FEI as 33rd (Drive efficiency is 47th), and Defensive FEI as 76th (Defensive drive efficiency is 108). VT was 38 and 63 respectively. Overall we landed at 53, VT at 44. Am I misinterpreting?

BCF Toys - 2023 FEI Ratings

www.bcftoys.com

 

[slugboy]

Perhaps some of the advanced stats gurus can chime in with better data, but it did seem like our defense improved a bit in the second half of last season.

Using FEI, 3 of the last 6 teams we played had top-25 offenses. Yet we allowed fewer points/game by almost a TD compared to our first 6 fbs opponents and improved even more for the last three games. There could be a number of different factors in play, including changing DCs and the small sample size. But I’m hopeful the improvement continues.

I’m missing some of the important early season game stats from ESPN that I’d normally use for that question

Here’s last year’s schedule, and I’m working from memory

G	Date	Time	Day	School		Opponent	Conf		Pts	Opp	W	L	Streak	Notes
1	Sep 1 2023	7:30 PM	Fri	Georgia Tech		Louisville	ACC	L	34	39	0	1	L 1	Offense wasn’t quite in gear yet. Defense underperformed
2	Sep 9 2023	1:00 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		South Carolina State	Non-Major	W	48	13	1	1	W 1	Not a useful yardstick
3	Sep 16 2023	7:30 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		(17) Ole Miss	SEC	L	23	48	1	2	L 1	Defense was better than 2022, but still an ugly performance
4	Sep 23 2023	6:30 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		Wake Forest	ACC	W	30	16	2	2	W 1	This probably said more about Wake’s offense than our defense
5	Sep 30 2023	3:30 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		Bowling Green	MAC	L	27	38	2	3	L 1	This was a fiasco that got was the end of the road for some of our coaches
6	Oct 7 2023	8:00 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		(17) Miami (FL)	ACC	W	23	20	3	3	W 1	fun game! This is partially Miami and partially us. End of the line for Miami’s QB
7	Oct 21 2023	12:00 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		Boston College	ACC	L	23	38	3	4	L 1	Also a fiasco, to start the second half of the season.
8	Oct 28 2023	8:00 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		(17) North Carolina	ACC	W	46	42	4	4	W 1	UNC had a great offense, but I can’t say our defense played all that well here
9	Nov 4 2023	2:00 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		Virginia	ACC	W	45	17	5	4	W 2	Defense played well against a bad team
10	Nov 11 2023	12:00 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		Clemson	ACC	L	21	42	5	5	L 1	Not good
11	Nov 18 2023	8:00 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		Syracuse	ACC	W	31	22	6	5	W 1	Defense played well against a crippled team
12	Nov 25 2023	7:30 PM	Sat	Georgia Tech		(1) Georgia	SEC	L	23	31	6	6	L 1	defense bowed up against an injured championship contender
13	Dec 22 2023	6:30 PM	Fri	Georgia Tech	N	UCF	Big 12	W	30	17	7	6	W 1	Gasparilla Bowl Good second half

I can kinda say “defense improved”, but not a miracle

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 6/29/2024.

 

[orientalnc]

I respect guys who put together a detailed analysis of the teams months before practice begins, but kids improve, get injured, lose their motivation, etc. Changes from season to season are not linear. I think we will be better this year because our offense should be able to produce more points. If the D can play as well as they finished last year we might be OK. I refuse to be pessimistic about this team until they show they don't deserve optimism. Do I think we will be ACC champs? No. But being in the top half of the conference should be in reach.

 

[slugboy]

I looked at our postgame win expectancies from last season. Clemson, Louisville, Ole Miss, and UGA were more solid losses than you would guess.

I don’t have first half vs second half of season splits for defense, but I think this is useful

In retrospect, our passing offense wasn’t all that impressive. Our run defense was a disaster. On offense, I’d expect improvement in our passing game. The 50 thousand dollar question is what happens with our defense.

(Game on paper)

 

[Thwg777]

Unreal, they think Cal, Cuse, and SMU have a better chance than Us?

SMU and Cuse should be much shorter odds as they play easier conference schedules and don’t giveaway conference home games for money.

We’re now tied with California at 100-1 odds per fanduel. We’re a better team but Cal has an easier schedule.

 

[stinger78]

SMU and Cuse should be much shorter odds as they play easier conference schedules and don’t giveaway conference home games for money.

We’re now tied with California at 100-1 odds per fanduel. We’re a better team but Cal has an easier schedule.

Doing both Dublin and MBS in the same season is difficult.