UGA Postgame

[chewybaka]

"You will do whatever it takes to prove he doesn't belong there"; Coach is paying, like, zero attention to opinions stated here. Especially your and mine. A few points:

That a lot of people like Marshall at BB doesn't mean they're right. I don't think they are, but it isn't up to me. Coach will make that decision.

Maybe the problem this year was the OL; a lot of people think so and they didn't tear up the pea patch, especially on pass blocking. I don't think they're the root of our problems, however. It was more a dearth of experienced and talented skill people.

And now a little data analysis:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
1.000 3.125 4.650 7.420 8.425 23.000

That's a summary of Marshall's ypc (I left out ND since he didn't play and, yes, today I have too much time on my hands. I did a boxplot too, but I can't figure out how to insert it here.) The 23 is his ypc in the Alcorn game. It is a far outlier and the sole reason for his high average ypc. Here's how how he looks without Alcorn:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
1.000 2.800 4.300 5.689 6.100 15.900

The median is what we should be looking at and, as you can see, that's pretty decent for a freshman. But you keep comparing him to Dwyer and that doesn't float when we use the correct measure for his performance. What I'm betting is that if he got out to the edge he'd be doing as well as Lynch or better. Here's his picture, without Tulane (1/45):

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-2.60 3.75 8.55 8.39 11.80 21.00

Out on the edge Marshall could be at 8.5 - 9 ypc too, imho. That's all I'm saying here.

But, like I intimate above, I think you are taking this way too seriously. And I need to get back to work.

Update: The edit function on the site doesn't work to get the spacing on the Lynch summary right! It looks fine in the editor, then none of my edits work. You people will just have to soldier on.

Your funny....

 

[Lee]

"You will do whatever it takes to prove he doesn't belong there"; Coach is paying, like, zero attention to opinions stated here. Especially your and mine. A few points:

That a lot of people like Marshall at BB doesn't mean they're right. I don't think they are, but it isn't up to me. Coach will make that decision.

Maybe the problem this year was the OL; a lot of people think so and they didn't tear up the pea patch, especially on pass blocking. I don't think they're the root of our problems, however. It was more a dearth of experienced and talented skill people.

And now a little data analysis:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
1.000 3.125 4.650 7.420 8.425 23.000

That's a summary of Marshall's ypc (I left out ND since he didn't play and, yes, today I have too much time on my hands. I did a boxplot too, but I can't figure out how to insert it here.) The 23 is his ypc in the Alcorn game. It is a far outlier and the sole reason for his high average ypc. Here's how how he looks without Alcorn:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
1.000 2.800 4.300 5.689 6.100 15.900

The median is what we should be looking at and, as you can see, that's pretty decent for a freshman. But you keep comparing him to Dwyer and that doesn't float when we use the correct measure for his performance. What I'm betting is that if he got out to the edge he'd be doing as well as Lynch or better. Here's his picture, without Tulane (1/45):

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-2.60 3.75 8.55 8.39 11.80 21.00

Out on the edge Marshall could be at 8.5 - 9 ypc too, imho. That's all I'm saying here.

But, like I intimate above, I think you are taking this way too seriously. And I need to get back to work.

Update: The edit function on the site doesn't work to get the spacing on the Lynch summary right! It looks fine in the editor, then none of my edits work. You people will just have to soldier on.

You take that game out and he still averaged almost a full YPC over Laskey last year playing behind the best Oline since PJ has been here. Laskey averaged 4.98 YPC last year. If you take his best game out he averaged 4.8 YPC. As a Senior. Behind the best Oline in PJ's tenure. Contrast that with 7.42 with and 5.69 without his best game. As a TRUE freshman. Behind possibly the worst Oline since PJ has been here. Why would we move him again?

As for what Marshall could do on the edge, I have no doubts he could average 8-9 ypc. That's not uncommon for an aback. I think a lot of guys could do that, but I also think that is dependent on way more than someone's running ability. You said it yourself that you think that Lynch will be or should be moved to WR because he won't get playing time at aback due to all of the other guys with more speed that will be playing. If a guys that isn't good enough to crack the 2 deep next year in your opinion can get 9+ ypc, why would we move our most talented RB there instead of leaving him where he just averaged 7.6 ypc at bback? I will take the bback averaging 6-7 ypc over moving him to aback to average 8-9 all day.

As for abacks averaging high ypc numbers. In 2014, we had 2 that averaged more than 8.5 ypc. 4 in 2013, 1 in 2012 with another at 7.9, 2 in 2011 with another at 8.0, 2 in 2010, 1 in 2009, and 1 in 2008. In that same time frame we've had 2 bbacks average 7 ypc or more. One was a true freshman this year with candy initials and the other was Dwyer. Even with his best game taken out, (which is ridiculous btw because we play terrible teams every year and you don't take those games out of other guys ypc) his 5.7 ypc is more than AA ever had, .1 less than ZL's best year and .2 less than SD last year when he went on a tear.

I don't see any reason to move him to aback. If he gets beats out, I will actually be very happy because that means whoever took his place is going to be nasty. His vision, feet, and burst are something we haven't had at that position since...Dwyer. As for me comparing the two, I said MM is the best we've had since Dwyer in terms of pure running ability and he reminds me of him. Also Dwyer's first year in this offense was as a sophomore who already had game experience and a year in the S&C program. He also had the best WR in college football on the outside that the defense had to respect. Take Dwyer's 15.7 ypc game out and his numbers look different that year as well. During that year, he also had a game where he averaged 2.8 ypc and another where he averaged 1.7 ypc (against the almighty Gardner-Webb Bulldogs btw). So you can't just use your metric to judge one and not the other. Everyone gets to play against the bad teams.

Again, I'm not saying he is as good or will necessarily be as good as Dwyer, but he has the most potential I've seen at the bback spot since Dwyer left imo.

 

[takethepoints]

You take that game out and he still averaged almost a full YPC over Laskey last year playing behind the best Oline since PJ has been here. Laskey averaged 4.98 YPC last year. If you take his best game out he averaged 4.8 YPC. As a Senior. Behind the best Oline in PJ's tenure. Contrast that with 7.42 with and 5.69 without his best game. As a TRUE freshman. Behind possibly the worst Oline since PJ has been here. Why would we move him again?

You are making a rookie mistake in data analysis: you're using averages to compare cases. If the averages and the medians in any distribution are close to each other, then, by all means use, the arithmetic average (the mean). If they aren't, then the usual reason is far outliers that are distorting the levels. When that happens, you use the medians since they are a lot more resistant. You are clinging to the averages like a drunk clings to a lamppost: for support, not illumination. (I stole that line from an Oxford debate I saw once on youtube.) When there are far outliers, eliminate them, use the medians and you'll always get a better view of the actual level of any distribution.

As for Laskey, here's his summary, leaving out the games where he didn't play:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
3.300 4.600 4.700 4.944 5.400 7.200

As you will probably notice, the mean and median of this distribution are pretty much identical. No need to leave out his best game (Ugag) because it isn't a far outlier. He gave us pretty much the same production in every game, right about 5 ypc. This is how such performances should be evaluated; by how much the real level was. For Marshall it was about 4.3 ypc, for Laskey about 4.7.

As I said before, Marshall did ok for a freshman. There's no reason to inflate his figures. By the same token, however, and, like I said before, I think he would be more productive out on the edge. That's up to Coach.

 

[upwgdrb]

You are making a rookie mistake in data analysis: you're using averages to compare cases. If the averages and the medians in any distribution are close to each other, then, by all means use, the arithmetic average (the mean). If they aren't, then the usual reason is far outliers that are distorting the levels. When that happens, you use the medians since they are a lot more resistant. You are clinging to the averages like a drunk clings to a lamppost: for support, not illumination. (I stole that line from an Oxford debate I saw once on youtube.) When there are far outliers, eliminate them, use the medians and you'll always get a better view of the actual level of any distribution.

As for Laskey, here's his summary, leaving out the games where he didn't play:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
3.300 4.600 4.700 4.944 5.400 7.200

As you will probably notice, the mean and median of this distribution are pretty much identical. No need to leave out his best game (Ugag) because it isn't a far outlier. He gave us pretty much the same production in every game, right about 5 ypc. This is how such performances should be evaluated; by how much the real level was. For Marshall it was about 4.3 ypc, for Laskey about 4.7.

As I said before, Marshall did ok for a freshman. There's no reason to inflate his figures. By the same token, however, and, like I said before, I think he would be more productive out on the edge. That's up to Coach.

You are missing some key statistics like run over ten yards and runs over twenty. You can't eliminate outliers in Atlantic performances. With MM this had to with the amount of carries and playing time. We are all over positive "outliers" in my industry because they demonstrate what can be done vs the typical performance. I am talking about output not measuring machine capability to produce a part within standard.
You need to compare ZL's sophomore numbers not his senior number to have some what a legitimate comparison.

Look I get you guys you think of the bback as as a battering ram that wears downs the other teams. ZL is your example of this. ZL is in the NFL as a fullback not the feature back. I would not doubt PS is playing in Sunday as well as a fullback. They are prototypical of that position.

Other like me think we need a game changer who can break off the long runs over 20.

I still can't believe people knock this kid. He played great as a true freshman and will be a great for us.

 

[SidewalkJacket]

You are making a rookie mistake in data analysis: you're using averages to compare cases. If the averages and the medians in any distribution are close to each other, then, by all means use, the arithmetic average (the mean). If they aren't, then the usual reason is far outliers that are distorting the levels. When that happens, you use the medians since they are a lot more resistant. You are clinging to the averages like a drunk clings to a lamppost: for support, not illumination. (I stole that line from an Oxford debate I saw once on youtube.) When there are far outliers, eliminate them, use the medians and you'll always get a better view of the actual level of any distribution.

As for Laskey, here's his summary, leaving out the games where he didn't play:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
3.300 4.600 4.700 4.944 5.400 7.200

As you will probably notice, the mean and median of this distribution are pretty much identical. No need to leave out his best game (Ugag) because it isn't a far outlier. He gave us pretty much the same production in every game, right about 5 ypc. This is how such performances should be evaluated; by how much the real level was. For Marshall it was about 4.3 ypc, for Laskey about 4.7.

As I said before, Marshall did ok for a freshman. There's no reason to inflate his figures. By the same token, however, and, like I said before, I think he would be more productive out on the edge. That's up to Coach.

Lol only on a GT board...

 

[Lee]

You are making a rookie mistake in data analysis: you're using averages to compare cases. If the averages and the medians in any distribution are close to each other, then, by all means use, the arithmetic average (the mean). If they aren't, then the usual reason is far outliers that are distorting the levels. When that happens, you use the medians since they are a lot more resistant. You are clinging to the averages like a drunk clings to a lamppost: for support, not illumination. (I stole that line from an Oxford debate I saw once on youtube.) When there are far outliers, eliminate them, use the medians and you'll always get a better view of the actual level of any distribution.

As for Laskey, here's his summary, leaving out the games where he didn't play:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
3.300 4.600 4.700 4.944 5.400 7.200

As you will probably notice, the mean and median of this distribution are pretty much identical. No need to leave out his best game (Ugag) because it isn't a far outlier. He gave us pretty much the same production in every game, right about 5 ypc. This is how such performances should be evaluated; by how much the real level was. For Marshall it was about 4.3 ypc, for Laskey about 4.7.

As I said before, Marshall did ok for a freshman. There's no reason to inflate his figures. By the same token, however, and, like I said before, I think he would be more productive out on the edge. That's up to Coach.

You're probably right in me making a rookie mistake. I did take M-train. As far as outliers, as @upwgdrb said, MM's lack of carries and playing time factor in as well. I feel like a game in which a bback gets 5 or less carries is an outlier as well.

It's tough for any feature back to get any sort of rhythm getting 3,4, or 5 carries. Most of the best backs get better as the game wears on. I think MM's spread between his median and mean would have been a lot closer had he gotten consistent carries this year. ZL averaged 16.7 carries Per game last year excluding the 2 games after he got hurt (4 carries for 13 yards). Look at the games that MM had with at least 8 carries this year and his numbers look a lot different.

Like you say, it is up to coach and we obviously we disagree on where he best fits. I also said earlier that if he ends up moving because he got beat out, I will be ecstatic because that means we are in very good shape at that spot. For this to happen, I feel like he would have to be knocked out of the 2 deep IMO. I dont see any way that could happen based on what we know now.

 

[takethepoints]

You are missing some key statistics like run over ten yards and runs over twenty. You can't eliminate outliers in Atlantic performances. With MM this had to with the amount of carries and playing time. We are all over positive "outliers" in my industry because they demonstrate what can be done vs the typical performance. I am talking about output not measuring machine capability to produce a part within standard.

Hmmmmm. I would think that a far outlier was almost prima facia proof that either the monitoring process has lapsed or that some kind of exogenous condition was interfering with normal production processes. But, hey, it's your line of country, not mine.

In football, what you can usually say about a game where a player averages 23 ypc (Marshall at Alcorn) is that a) the other sides D really sucked or b) the player had a unbelievable run of luck during the game or c) both, like it was at the Alcorn game. That's why I don't think that performance should be included in an evaluation of his performance.

Your other points are very well taken, but the only in-depth analysis of BB performance that matters is the one Coach will do this fall. All will be revealed after that.

 

[GTie79]

Don't know if anyone heard Johnson's comments after the game from the locker room, but he said the best thing for Marcus Marshall going forward would be the competition from Leggett and I thought he said "Kirvonte Benson" next year. So it didn't sound like there was a plan to move him to A Back at this point. Those three could make a pretty good trio fighting for playing time. I was thinking Benson was an A Back, but his arms look like a B Back. Did anyone hear that comment? Did I get that right?