Last year, we were 30th in the Team Talent Composite Index (
https://collegefootballdata.com/exporter/talent?year=2021). That’s about where we’ve been throughout all of Collins’ tenure, and it’s a good stat for him.
If you just looked at that stat, you’d think we were a fringe top-25 team the last three years.
2022 numbers aren’t in yet, but I think after transfers finish up, it’ll be about the same.
Those numbers don’t tell the entire story. Since Collins started, we’ve had offensive and defensive linemen transfers. At first, I thought they were to fill in until we got a pipeline of high school recruits older and stronger and trained on our defensive scheme. Then, it looked like they’d be a quick fix until we had our recruiting and development in place. Now, it looks like a way of life.
We’re doing a lot of the same thing all over the field now, including at running back.
So, if the supposed talent level is the same, why should we expect a different year this season?
The main unknown is how the coaching staff will do. The defensive coaching staff is mostly turned over, and the offensive staff is heavily turned over. Were they the X-factor? If so, did we bring in the right coaches and replace the right coaches? We’ll find out.
Has player continuity been our problem? We keep bringing in transfers. Sometimes they start and are really impressive, sometimes they’re OK, and sometimes we rarely see them on the field. Often, they’re gone after a year or two. But, the transfer portal is the “new normal”, and we’re going to see more of this. Right now, I wouldn’t count on the kind of player continuity we saw in the 1990’s.
When I look at pro teams, I’ll compare a New England with Detroit under Matt Millen. Millen drafted a lot of skill players. Belichick always drafts at least one OL a year fairly high in the draft. Millen got his QB beaten up pretty bad for years. Likewise, we haven’t built a core functioning front 7 on defense or OL on offense. Our talent index looks better than it really is because we haven’t developed that part of our game.
If we fix our weaknesses in one year, it’ll be a miracle.
However, I wouldn’t worry too much about the portal. We’re doing fine. We’re not winning the portal — Alabama, USC, Ole Miss and others are doing that — but we’re holding our own. Yes, we lost some great players through the portal, but we’ve brought in a lot of good players too, and on average we’re slightly ahead. That’s not enough to make us win — for us, the difference is in other areas.