Time to Bury the Asterisk?

[jacketup]

Drawing lines in the sand about the staff based on number of wins next year is for casual fans who don't understand the complexities of P5 football. There are just too many variables to make wins the measurement, especially given where this program was in January of 2019. Wins is not the way to measure progress given where we are. A few things that can make a difference: Injuries, for a team without much depth; Officiating, we saw 4 poorly officiated games this year we got the worst of; a bad break that turns a game around.

I want to see better pass blocking, fewer turnovers, tougher receivers, a better pass rush, faster linebackers, better DT depth, better place kicking. If we get reasonable improvement in those areas--and we are capable--I'll be happy. But again, injuries in particular--and we seem to have had an unusual number the last two years--can impact progress in those items.

People seem to forget (or have an agenda) that we were 11-3 in 2014 and 3-9 in 2015 with the same coaching staff. For some reason we got all the breaks in 2014 and seemingly only one (FSU) in 2015. Was the coaching 8 games worse in 2015? Some people in this thread would suggest that to be the case.

 

[dmel25]

A few things that can make a difference: Injuries, for a team without much depth; Officiating, we saw 4 poorly officiated games this year we got the worst of; a bad break that turns a game around.

This is huge, and people will say it doesn't matter when it does. This year we had 4 horribly officiated games, and only one of them we 1 and that was Duke. The rest; UCF, Pitt, and NC State we all lost but we easily win those games if the officials weren't absurdly bad, and calling everything against GT. You can't tell me otherwise especially in the Pitt and UCF game.

GT should have been 6-3 this year but we were robbed! We improved a lot this year from 2019, but we got royally hosed in 3 games by officiating.

 

[Vespidae]

Don't forget the golf team.

Do you think the Hill cares? LMAO

 

[FredJacket]

Drawing lines in the sand about the staff based on number of wins next year is for casual fans who don't understand the complexities of P5 football. ...too many variables to make wins the measurement, especially given where this program was in January of 2019. Wins is not the way to measure progress given where we are.

Hey Coach Collins... I knew we could root you out.

[I kid. I kid]

 

[TheTechGuy]

Drawing lines in the sand about the staff based on number of wins next year is for casual fans who don't understand the complexities of P5 football. There are just too many variables to make wins the measurement, especially given where this program was in January of 2019. Wins is not the way to measure progress given where we are. A few things that can make a difference: Injuries, for a team without much depth; Officiating, we saw 4 poorly officiated games this year we got the worst of; a bad break that turns a game around.

I want to see better pass blocking, fewer turnovers, tougher receivers, a better pass rush, faster linebackers, better DT depth, better place kicking. If we get reasonable improvement in those areas--and we are capable--I'll be happy. But again, injuries in particular--and we seem to have had an unusual number the last two years--can impact progress in those items.

People seem to forget (or have an agenda) that we were 11-3 in 2014 and 3-9 in 2015 with the same coaching staff. For some reason we got all the breaks in 2014 and seemingly only one (FSU) in 2015. Was the coaching 8 games worse in 2015? Some people in this thread would suggest that to be the case.

At what point can we begin to expect more wins than losses? If you’re assuming that another 3 win season won’t create significant concern amongst those with the ability to influence decision making, you’re wrong.

Collins will be here at least another two years. In part, the uga came being cancelled spared Collins extra criticism this year. Two more losing seasons coupled with two losses to uga would result in one of the hottest seats in the country going into year 5. This isn’t my prediction for the next two years, simply an analysis.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

At what point can we begin to expect more wins than losses? If you’re assuming that another 3 win season won’t create significant concern amongst those with the ability to influence decision making, you’re wrong.

Collins will be here at least another two years. In part, the uga came being cancelled spared Collins extra criticism this year. Two more losing seasons coupled with two losses to uga would result in one of the hottest seats in the country going into year 5. This isn’t my prediction for the next two years, simply an analysis.

I agree. At some point all the hoopla has to show dividends.

 

[GTFLETCH]

Tech won’t drop football now. They ACC money makes it too enticing to stay in.

No, just do average. Seven wins in football. Do ok in the other sports, but nothing great. Just meh. And the Hill and the GTAA are happy.

Do you think Coach Collins can get Tech Football back to 7 wins on the regular? Or does Tech go after Ken W after year five of Collins era?

 

[stech81]

Do you think Coach Collins can get Tech Football back to 7 wins on the regular? Or does Tech go after Ken W after year five of Collins era?

someone who has a ,4 win percent in his 60's by then and has not coached one day of college football.

 

[Jacketman99]

Do you think Coach Collins can get Tech Football back to 7 wins on the regular? Or does Tech go after Ken W after year five of Collins era?

I think Collins can get Tech to 7 wins by his 5th year. I am actually expecting a higher win total than that.
Ken W will never be the head coach at GT. I am assuming this was a joke.

 

[yeti92]

I think Collins can get Tech to 7 wins by his 5th year. I am actually expecting a higher win total than that.
Ken W will never be the head coach at GT. I am assuming this was a joke.

If Collins can only manage 7 wins by his 5th season he should be fired.

 

[LongforDodd]

Let's bury the handshake

 

[jacketup]

If Collins can only manage 7 wins by his 5th season he should be fired.

And what do you do then? Gailey never won fewer than 7 and was fired. Over his last nine years, Johnson averaged 7 wins/year and wasn't fired. And left the cupboard bare.

Collins knows what it takes to get done, and has shown he is willing to put in the work. He has been at successful programs with successful coaches. But will he have the resources?

If we aren't competing for the Coastal by year 5, the problem is more likely to be money for assistants than Collins. Where would Dabo be if he didn't have top money for assistants? I'm not suggesting the current assistants can't get it done--I don't know yet given the talent they have had to work with. But if there is a problem by year 5, money is likely to be the problem. We can't have a Ferrari with a Miata budget.

 

[Vespidae]

But if there is a problem by year 5, money is likely to be the problem.

That has been the problem since 1966. Do we really think money is going to materialize?

 

[g0lftime]

I wish it was just money. What about Tennessee and FSU or UCLA . They have plenty of money. It also takes the right coaching staff to create a destination where kids want to be. Whether it is for winning championships, a good track to the NFL or the school environment. I do think Collins is trying to sell the city of Atlanta, a different sort of football environment and a chance at the NFL. None of that works ultimately without winning. Continuing to recruit in the 20 to 30 range will require out coaching teams in the same or better ranges. Maybe spending more on coaches is where more money comes in but hasn't been working at a lot of other places either. He will have a couple more years to prove whether he is ready to be a head coach and attract P5 level assistants. All of the top programs ultimately come down to who is the head coach. That's why guys like Urban Meyer are mentioned whenever a high profile job may be opening up and they don't come cheap. They are proven winners.

 

[Vespidae]

I wish it was just money. What about Tennessee and FSU or UCLA . They have plenty of money. It also takes the right coaching staff to create a destination where kids want to be. Whether it is for winning championships, a good track to the NFL or the school environment. I do think Collins is trying to sell the city of Atlanta, a different sort of football environment and a chance at the NFL. None of that works ultimately without winning. Continuing to recruit in the 20 to 30 range will require out coaching teams in the same or better ranges. Maybe spending more on coaches is where more money comes in but hasn't been working at a lot of other places either. He will have a couple more years to prove whether he is ready to be a head coach and attract P5 level assistants. All of the top programs ultimately come down to who is the head coach. That's why guys like Urban Meyer are mentioned whenever a high profile job may be opening up and they don't come cheap. They are proven winners.

Tennessee is a dumpster fire because of the Haslams. Every $50 million dollar check has conditions ... “we get to pick the coach. We get get to decide the offense. We get to call the plays.” Auburn isn’t far behind.

FSU made a decision to exit the arms race. They are finished as a national power.

Kudos to Geoff for taking the job. But his task is ... enormous.

 

[Pointer]

..

I wish it was just money. What about Tennessee and FSU or UCLA . They have plenty of money. It also takes the right coaching staff to create a destination where kids want to be. Whether it is for winning championships, a good track to the NFL or the school environment. I do think Collins is trying to sell the city of Atlanta, a different sort of football environment and a chance at the NFL. None of that works ultimately without winning. Continuing to recruit in the 20 to 30 range will require out coaching teams in the same or better ranges. Maybe spending more on coaches is where more money comes in but hasn't been working at a lot of other places either. He will have a couple more years to prove whether he is ready to be a head coach and attract P5 level assistants. All of the top programs ultimately come down to who is the head coach. That's why guys like Urban Meyer are mentioned whenever a high profile job may be opening up and they don't come cheap. They are proven winners.

It's a blend of everything your talking about. Guys like Meyer were proven winners even at the lower level schools with smaller financials. They also will gravitate to big time schools because they know money makes things even easier. That's why if CGC doesn't work out, we need to make sure we keep trying lower level coaches with a track record of wins as HC at the lower level schools. Kalen Deboer, Willie Fritz (inherited an actual disaster at tulane), of course Monken. Then there's guys like Lance Leipold who are still new to D1, but have had lots of success.

CGC will most likely have 5 years to prove he can do it. I assume around the year 5 mark, there will need to be extension talks for recruiting purposes. And I think a coach should have some time to come in and get acclimated, especially at Tech.

Once we do get a good one, we need to up funding to keep them here, or if they stay, to allow them to take Tech to the next level. Maybe it's Collins.

 

[Jim Prather]

Just to set expectations, in order for Geoff Collins to merely match Chan Gailey's winning percentage (.576) by the end of his contract, he will have to average nearly 9 wins per season for the next 5 years.
Realistically, with two such poor seasons, Geoff Collins has probably guaranteed that he will end up with one of the lower winning percentages of all GT coaches. We aren't really debating whether he is a bad coach or a good coach. We are probably debating whether he will be regarded as a bad coach or an average coach.
Of course this could all change if he goes on to win a national championship or even a bunch of Orange bowls.

 

[Jacketman99]

Just to set expectations, in order for Geoff Collins to merely match Chan Gailey's winning percentage (.576) by the end of his contract, he will have to average nearly 9 wins per season for the next 5 years.
Realistically, with two such poor seasons, Geoff Collins has probably guaranteed that he will end up with one of the lower winning percentages of all GT coaches. We aren't really debating whether he is a bad coach or a good coach. We are probably debating whether he will be regarded as a bad coach or an average coach.
Of course this could all change if he goes on to win a national championship or even a bunch of Orange bowls.

It is not how you begin, it has more to do with how you perform. If Collins turns things around and we average 9 wins in years 5-7 he will be considered a very good coach. At that point I doubt most fans will care about years 1 & 2. Most knowledgeable football people understand what he inherited and how difficult it would be to turn things around. That is why we have been picked last in the league for 2 years running. I expect improvement in the next 2 years with potentially a big improvement in wins in year 4 as this freshman class transitions to upperclassmen and the addition of another good recruiting class.

 

[CuseJacket]

Bear with me and forget that this thread is about Collins and GT for a minute.

A 3rd year head coach will have had 2 full recruiting cycles in their rear view mirror. That means that a 3rd year head coach's first full recruiting class will be redshirt freshmen with a smattering of true sophomores heading into their 3rd season.

Under ordinary circumstances, how much of a contribution toward W/L do you expect from a smattering of true sophomores and mostly freshmen (save for a handful of transfers)?

In general, I dislike the premise for any coach that "they have their guys" by year 3.

 

[WreckinGT]

It is not how you begin, it has more to do with how you perform. If Collins turns things around and we average 9 wins in years 5-7 he will be considered a very good coach. At that point I doubt most fans will care about years 1 & 2. Most knowledgeable football people understand what he inherited and how difficult it would be to turn things around. That is why we have been picked last in the league for 2 years running. I expect improvement in the next 2 years with potentially a big improvement in wins in year 4 as this freshman class transitions to upperclassmen and the addition of another good recruiting class.

Ive seen alot of people who think 2022 is the year that everything pays off and we start winning 8+ games a year. We add Ole Miss, UCF, and Florida St to our schedule that year. Our away games are UGA, UCF, Fla St, UNC, Pitt, and VT. That's a tough year to expect significant win increases from.