They Have Figured Out Paul Johnson's Offense

[AE 87]

fair enough.
Can we evaluate it vs teams that matter and not count the stats vs the poo poo teams we beat by 60.
I bet it looks a whole lot different. Let's just look at the last 2 weeks.

Ranking of FBS teams based on offensive points/drive vs power 5 (BCS AQ) opponents (for teams playing at least 2 pwr 5 opponents)
2008: #43
2009: #2
2010: #37
2011: #9
2012: #9
2013: #24
2014: #2

 

[iceeater1969]

Sure seems like we could recruit outside 200 mile radius for TOP DL and Lb talent. We need 2 per year and promise them immediate playing time as freshman.
We can keep getting qb that change into ab, bb or db over 5 years
Look at how aj gray looks on the field. Pjdavis is my favorite player on defense however his size limit his ability to cover the pass as well as take on large lineman. (he has to go round these lineman and be protected by our dt . We really miss Nealy and IMO Tyler is just not aggressive enough. ) We are criticaly thin at dl now = gamble is dinged up and If one goes down in next few games we on ly have 3.
Roof must dial up pressure to keep this from being exploited but a good qb and an offensive line that can hold are going to burn this defense
Defense with natural talent will help the offense over the long haul. Lets go get some for Roof

 

[BabyJacket1990]

I disagree. Last year proves the offense is more than capable with the right players and sometimes that just means experienced players. Give us a decent defense last year and we beat UNC and FSU, some of the close wins are blowouts and we make the playoffs.

Last year didn't prove anything my friend. We had a great season for sure

Actually, I do not agree. Oh, yes, in terms of passing yardage, surely you are correct. But for us to be two dimensional it is not necessary to have greta passing yardage, it is necessary that we are effective when we do pass. So, QBR is the proper way to measure our passing (imho).

So, take a look at our QBR for two time periods again (the "good" passing years of 2009 and 2014 when we had NFL WR's and the "poor" passing years of 2010-2013 when we didn't):

2009 & 2014 QBR vs Top Teams 123.2
QBR vs Power 5 Teams 179.8

2010-2013 QBR vs Top Teams 100.7
QBR vs Power 5 Teams 156.1

NB- These stats are from College Football Stats site cfbstats.com. Their definition of QBR is different form some other definitions. The median QBR for 2015 is around 138, for example. This reflects how poorly we do passing against decent defenses, except in our "power" years....we were 12th nationally last year in this stat and in 2009, compared to being #86 in 2013, #35 in 2012, #14 in 2011, and #113 in 2010. That 2011 team finished 8-5 and probably should have won games against Virginia (QBR a record low of 0.20) and Utah in the bowl game. They were probably talented enough to be 10-3.

I still contend that we MUST have an effective passing game, in terms of QBR, so be successful offensively and to avoid being one dimensional.

I don't know how we get from where we are today to being effective with our passing, but I do believe we MUST be effective to avoid 6-6 and 7-5 type results.....

JeT was just a little better 50% passer last year. That's not going to win you a NC.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Anyone want to have a go at Urban is free to join that thread also. Apparently his offense is figured out also and he has been rendered football stupid in the offseason.

QB in the gun with 4 or 5 wide...preferably with a hurry up. This is what football has evolved to. All others are doomed to fail and lucky to win 4 games. Get with the times people. Can we hire June Jones or one of his disciples???.....

 

[Wrecking Ball]

The only thing I really wonder about is the lack of some sort of pass over the middle, but that probably comes down to practice time. We cannot do everything. @Boomergump mentioned that; why spend time on something new when we aren't doing the basic fundamentals of football well?

 

[MWBATL]

Ranking of FBS teams based on offensive points/drive vs power 5 (BCS AQ) opponents (for teams playing at least 2 pwr 5 opponents)
2008: #43
2009: #2
2010: #37
2011: #9
2012: #9
2013: #24
2014: #2

Problem with this is there is a huge disparity between our offensive performance against good defenses and other teams. We averaged 14 points per game more against Power 5 teams other than the top teams on our schedule. I'm not sure how that compares to others (certainly, all teams do better offensively against the weaker teams on their schedules), but it sounds like a pretty big swing to me.

In other words, we pile up stats against the likes of Syracuse (56 points) UNC (68) Kansas (66) and the like.....while then having much more trouble with the likes of Virginia Tech (17) or Miami (7) or ...well, you get the point. My sense is that the disparity is greater for us than for other teams. But, that is purely a guess. I don't doubt the brilliance of 2009 and 2014...I do wonder about the relative rankings in 2010-2013. On the other hand, I doubt that few of us wouldn't acknowledge that the defense has been the weak link in our armor those years, and that while the offense was good, it wasn't good enough to overcome a weak defense.

 

[MWBATL]

Last year didn't prove anything my friend. We had a great season for sure

JeT was just a little better 50% passer last year. That's not going to win you a NC.

Couldn't disagree with that statement more strongly. Dude was #5 in the nation in QBR by ESPN's ranking and team was #12 in the nation in QBR last year. That was a record setting offense and JeT was very much doing his part in it with both his arm and his feet. With a decent defense we were EVERY bit as good offensively as anyone in the nation.

Have no doubt about it, if CPJ can get a passing threat to go with his triple option, (and he has had it twice in 6 years) this offense is as prolific as anything in college football. Where it gets ugly is the same place any offense gets ugly...when it becomes one dimensional, easier to defend because you can ignore certain threats, and isn't being executed very well.

My only complaint is that I wish CPJ would pay more attention to adding a quality passing game. I get Boomer's point that it isn't something you can do mid-season...but I think he did not pay enough attention to it in 2010-3 and again isn't this year (or hasn't). But that doesn't mean I don't like the "triple option" (even though our offense is a lot more than that). It rocks and is EVEY bit as good as anyone else's offense and (imho) really the perfect fit for GT.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Passing has been a problem but it's not our main problem. Executing blocking assignments has been. Square that away and the rest will likely take care of itself. (Not including turnovers)

 

[AE 87]

Problem with this is there is a huge disparity between our offensive performance against good defenses and other teams. We averaged 14 points per game more against Power 5 teams other than the top teams on our schedule. I'm not sure how that compares to others (certainly, all teams do better offensively against the weaker teams on their schedules), but it sounds like a pretty big swing to me.

In other words, we pile up stats against the likes of Syracuse (56 points) UNC (68) Kansas (66) and the like.....while then having much more trouble with the likes of Virginia Tech (17) or Miami (7) or ...well, you get the point. My sense is that the disparity is greater for us than for other teams. But, that is purely a guess. I don't doubt the brilliance of 2009 and 2014...I do wonder about the relative rankings in 2010-2013. On the other hand, I doubt that few of us wouldn't acknowledge that the defense has been the weak link in our armor those years, and that while the offense was good, it wasn't good enough to overcome a weak defense.

You may have a point, but two things.
(1) In other threads, I've shown how there's a strong correlation between ppd vs pwr 5 and national ranking (that is, teams which have the greatest differential between pts earned by their O and points allowed by their D, against pwr 5, are typically the highest ranked teams). So that fact suggests the statistic is a meaningful indicator of quality.
(2) If you want a less raw statistic that's trying to account for strength of schedule and gives less reward to blow-outs, then you might want to consider the footballoutsiders stats:

Offense ... FEI ... S&P+
2008 ....... #18 ... #41
2009 ....... #2 ..... #21
2010 ........ #41 ... #61
2011 ......... #16 ... #15
2012 ........ #26 ... #13
2013 ........ #38 ... #21
2014 ........ #1 ......#3

 

[dressedcheeseside]

You may have a point, but two things.
(1) In other threads, I've shown how there's a strong correlation between ppd vs pwr 5 and national ranking (that is, teams which have the greatest differential between pts earned by their O and points allowed by their D, against pwr 5, are typically the highest ranked teams). So that fact suggests the statistic is a meaningful indicator of quality.
(2) If you want a less raw statistic that's trying to account for strength of schedule and gives less reward to blow-outs, then you might want to consider the footballoutsiders stats:

Offense ... FEI ... S&P+
2008 ....... #18 ... #41
2009 ....... #2 ..... #21
2010 ........ #41 ... #61
2011 ......... #16 ... #15
2012 ........ #26 ... #13
2013 ........ #38 ... #21
2014 ........ #1 ......#3

Add I'll add that the football outsiders FEI from last year was tops by a huge margin. Imo, for whatever that's worth, FEI is the single best indicator of offensive quality.

 

[awbuzz]

Passing has been a problem but it's not our main problem. Executing blocking assignments has been. Square that away and the rest will likely take care of itself. (Not including turnovers)

Finally reading through this thread, and @Whiskey_Clear 's comment is exactly what I was going to type. Execute blocks and we aren't having this conversation.

 

[Captain killem]

"You don't out coach people; you outwork people"
Great quote from a great coach Luther Welsh.

 

[MWBATL]

Finally reading through this thread, and @Whiskey_Clear 's comment is exactly what I was going to type. Execute blocks and we aren't having this conversation.

You know, maybe I am naive. Maybe I am stupid. I don't know. But it still seems to me you must (MUST) do both.

Just imagine if GT was simply not allowed to pass. Period. No passing threat at all. Do you honestly think that all we would have to do is execute blocks? Against all 11 defenders? I don't. I think if the opposition can stack 11 against the run, you lose. Yet, that seems to be what many of you are arguing in this (and other) threads.

<shaking my head> I really just don't get it. I think the triple option MUST have an effective passing game to work. I will admit I need to go study some of the stats that AE87 and others are quoting to better understand their points...so who knows...maybe I AM wrong. It just seems intuitively wrong to me, by using my simple 11 men in the box example....that passing IS integral to the offense.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

We agree we have to be able to pass successfully when we do it. But what I argue against is the need for a near 50/50 split for balance. 80/20 run pass has been plenty enuf balance for us in keeping Ds back on their heels and guessing. Actually when we hurt them most it's usually when we surprise em a bit with the 20%.

 

[PBR549]

"You don't out coach people; you outwork people"
Great quote from a great coach Luther Welsh.

Coach Welsh is exactly right. Here's the deal, the good coaches know what every other coach knows. Rarely does a coordinator not understand the scheme he's playing against. However coaches must coach the players so that they can stop the scheme. Player's must make the plays. Our scheme of offense is not the norm. This is a great thing because defenses don't see it every week so it gives us a chance to be successful with slightly inferior athletes overall that we have always had.

We won 11 games last year with no defense. This year we can't stretch the field with our receivers right now but the coaches all know that so I'm sure they are going to work on it.

Look, our scheme and our coach gives us a chance and the stats on passing/running/QBR are fine to look at and compare but every teams stats are worse against the good teams.

Bottom line is we are not a factory and we have to work harder and smarter to win and we have been more consistent with CPJ than anyone since Dodd. So I know I'm preaching to the choir but let's get behind our team and our coaches and start a new WINNING streak vs UNC.

 

[GTech63]

Last year Tech was a passing threat on any given down. That threat to pass is actually what opened up the running game, in my opinion. Looking at the toughest defensive teams we faced (VPI, Clemson, uga, FSU, Mississippi State) we threw the ball roughly 25% of the time and ran the ball roughly 75% of the time. Which sounds about right to me given our offense.

I agree. No offense works being one dimensional. The threat of a pass has not been there this year. IMHO we need to try and pass more when it is unexpected.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Finally reading through this thread, and @Whiskey_Clear 's comment is exactly what I was going to type. Execute blocks and we aren't having this conversation.

Exactly, I highlighted a play from the Duke game where we missed three blocks on one play, all on the playside. The tackle, the wr and the lead Aback all missed their mark. The reasons vary for why they missed their mark, but they all missed. (the tackle was too slow and couldn't fight off a chip at the line, the wr and abacks both hesitated and took bad angles) This ineptitude at this magnitude wasn't happening last year.

 

[PBR549]

Exactly, I highlighted a play from the Duke game where we missed three blocks on one play, all on the playside. The tackle, the wr and the lead Aback all missed their mark. The reasons vary for why they missed their mark, but they all missed. (the tackle was too slow and couldn't fight off a chip at the line, the wr and abacks both hesitated and took bad angles) This ineptitude at this magnitude wasn't happening last year.

With that many in the box it's difficult to know who is fitting where and who to block. That's why CPJ keeps saying not to think so much just play. Still it's difficult to make that many blocks on every play.
It did happen last year there was just more room to run in the box. We have to be able to loosen the box although I don't know what that solution is.

 

[GTRX7]

<shaking my head> I really just don't get it. I think the triple option MUST have an effective passing game to work. I will admit I need to go study some of the stats that AE87 and others are quoting to better understand their points...so who knows...maybe I AM wrong. It just seems intuitively wrong to me, by using my simple 11 men in the box example....that passing IS integral to the offense.

I would just tweak what you are saying a bit. The offense must have at least the "threat" of an effective passing game to work. Yes, I guess a team could put 11 in the box, but that assumes that they do not cover our wide receivers at all -- not even 1 on 1 or a-backs when pushed out wide or on routs. That just is not going to happen and would not happen.

Our big problem this year is that our wide receivers have not been able to get open much when covered 1 on 1, or we have thrown bad balls, or the pocked has not been protected. Also, linebackers have been able to effectively cover our a-backs 1 on 1. A lot of that has to do with winning individual matchups, not on scheme. Our current scheme, with its currently innefective passing this year is still forcing D's to pull guys out of the box to cover those routs. We have just not been able to take advantage of the 1 on 1 coverage in space. In our best years, we had guys like Bay Bay and Smelter who would crush Ds for doing that. And, even better, that meant they often had to have safeties try to help out. Even just the "threat" of that keeps teams honest and makes us at our best.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I would just tweak what you are saying a bit. The offense must have at least the "threat" of an effective passing game to work. Yes, I guess a team could put 11 in the box, but that assumes that they do not cover our wide receivers at all -- not even 1 on 1 or a-backs when pushed out wide or on routs. That just is not going to happen and would not happen.

Our big problem this year is that our wide receivers have not been able to get open much when covered 1 on 1, or we have thrown bad balls, or the pocked has not been protected. Also, linebackers have been able to effectively cover our a-backs 1 on 1. A lot of that has to do with winning individual matchups, not on scheme. Our current scheme, with its currently innefective passing this year is still forcing D's to pull guys out of the box to cover those routs. We have just not been able to take advantage of the 1 on 1 coverage in space. In our best years, we had guys like Bay Bay and Smelter who would crush Ds for doing that. And, even better, that meant they often had to have safeties try to help out. Even just the "threat" of that keeps teams honest and makes us at our best.

Even if D's played honest, I'm not convinced that's all it would take. We're still missing a ton of blocks we normally make. It's not all safeties in the box.