Alabama hires new coaches every year. I've heard Saban is hard to work for. The only assistant coach they were concerned about losing was Kirby Smart. No assistant coach from Alabama that became a head football coach has ever beaten Saban since he's been their coach. Key was not a big loss for them.
The morning after
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TampaBuzz
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How do you figure? Sims has started 2 games this year. Against NIU, the turnover margin was even, but our single turnover was a killer fumbled mesh in the red zone. Against Pitt, the turnover margin was -2; resulting in 14 points for the opposition. In the other 3 games, started by Yates (I am not saying Yates needs to be the starter), our turnover ratio is +4. This includes the turnover against Clemson on the last play of the game on a desperation lateral.
When Sims came in as a sub against UNC, he was stellar. The team committed no turnovers that game and we pretty much scored at will. The point is that Sims needs to figure out how to inspire the offense (and it starts with him) not to turn the ball over when he is the starter. Did you notice that this year we are 0-2 when Sims starts and 2-1 when he doesn't? I want Sims to start because he gives the best chance to score a lot of points, but I also want him to take care of the durn ball.
bobongo
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You're insinuating he's responsible for all the turnovers while he is on the field, which is obviously not true.
takethepoints
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The difference is improvement. If you look at Clawson's record, in all his coaching spots and add up his wins and losses for the first two years and you get a 32% win rate (30 - 68). Then you look at the next three years and you get a 64% win rate (88 - 50) and that includes 6 out of 11 seasons with 8 wins or more. In short, the overall stats are misleading. And, I might add, his tenure at Wake 247 raecruit average is 63rd in the country since 2017, so recruiting at Tech would probably be easier.
Now, it could be that Collins will turn out to be like Clawson; shoot, we might win 6 - 7 games yet. But if not, then Clawson will be my immediate favorite for a replacement. Provided he's still around and wants to leave Wake, that is. If Wake wins the ACC this year, I doubt he'll be available.
As for Gibbs: he's a good RB and I never denied it. But better then Mason or Smith? Not so much. Putting him at WR and starting either Smith or Mason at RB gets more of our best players on the field at once.
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Here's another view into "what happened" (https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401282649). It's our Win% chart. 10 plays into the game, Jeff Sims got intercepted, right around the peak around 88 seconds. Our win% went from 44% to 33% on that play (it's right around the cursive "P" in the Pitt logo). On the 17th play, Pitt scores a TD (between the "i" and the first "t" in the Pitt logo). A few plays later, we have the pick-6, and we've spotted Pitt a 14 point lead, and they can go really aggressive in blitzing against us. We claw back bit by bit, but by 21-7 at the end of the first we're back to where we were before. We need unanswered points and we're not getting them.
Another view is here--we never overcame our early mistakes. Pitt is the top line, and GT is the bottom in Expected Points. Big mistakes need a lot of consistency to overcome, and we kept hurting ourselves through the game. Graphically, this is a "Pitt played a good and efficient game, and we were the opposite"
Here are some numbers from the defensive side.
Stop rate is the percentage of plays a defense gets stops (keeping the other team behind the chains or sticks). Stops: The total number of plays by a defensive player that prevent a successful play by the offense, defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down. In general, "plays" refers to tackles, passes defensed, fumbles forced, or interceptions. The exception is when discussing pass defense data from the FO game charting project, in which case "plays" refers to all charted passes with the given player as the listed defender.
Pitt kept us behind the chains about twice as much as they kept us behind the chains. One of Pitt's sacks may not have even been counted, but was the 33 yard INT of Sims and the second biggest plays of the game.
Those are defensive stats. Pitt ran 15 plays more than we did.
In our rushing game, we were stuffed 29% of the time, stopped for < 2 yards about half the time, and had good runs about 43% of the time. The OL Line Yards are an attempt to measure how much the OL contributed to yardage vs. the RB, and that number is really low. The "Highlight Yards" are the yards attributed to the RB, and with good blocking, that's enough to go crazy. We only got 73 rushing yards for the game--they stuffed us.
That's how we got some of these 3rd and 4th down numbers (per ESPN)
Another view is here--we never overcame our early mistakes. Pitt is the top line, and GT is the bottom in Expected Points. Big mistakes need a lot of consistency to overcome, and we kept hurting ourselves through the game. Graphically, this is a "Pitt played a good and efficient game, and we were the opposite"
Here are some numbers from the defensive side.
Stop rate is the percentage of plays a defense gets stops (keeping the other team behind the chains or sticks). Stops: The total number of plays by a defensive player that prevent a successful play by the offense, defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down. In general, "plays" refers to tackles, passes defensed, fumbles forced, or interceptions. The exception is when discussing pass defense data from the FO game charting project, in which case "plays" refers to all charted passes with the given player as the listed defender.
Pitt kept us behind the chains about twice as much as they kept us behind the chains. One of Pitt's sacks may not have even been counted, but was the 33 yard INT of Sims and the second biggest plays of the game.
| Defensive | Pitt | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 61 | 76 |
| Stop Rate | 48% | 26% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 12 (20%) | 2 (3%) |
| Passing | 5 (15%) | 1 (3%) |
| Rushing | 7 (25%) | 1 (3%) |
| TFLs Generated | 2 | 10 |
| Passing | 3 | 1 |
| Rushing | 7 | 1 |
| Sacks Generated | 2 (6%) | 1 (3%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 3 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 0 |
Those are defensive stats. Pitt ran 15 plays more than we did.
In our rushing game, we were stuffed 29% of the time, stopped for < 2 yards about half the time, and had good runs about 43% of the time. The OL Line Yards are an attempt to measure how much the OL contributed to yardage vs. the RB, and that number is really low. The "Highlight Yards" are the yards attributed to the RB, and with good blocking, that's enough to go crazy. We only got 73 rushing yards for the game--they stuffed us.
| Rushing | Pitt | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 76 | 61 |
| Rushes | 40 (53%) | 28 (46%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 1 (2%) | 2 (7%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 1 (100%) | 1 (50%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 5 (12%) | 8 (29%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 14 (35%) | 13 (46%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 22 (55%) | 12 (43%) |
| OL Line Yards | 89.2 | 24.7 |
| Per Carry | 2.23 | 0.88 |
| Highlight Yards | 98 | 64.5 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 4.45 | 5.38 |
That's how we got some of these 3rd and 4th down numbers (per ESPN)
| Matchup | Pitt | GT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 27 | 21 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-13 | 2-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Total Yards | 580 | 432 |
| Passing | 399 | 359 |
| Comp-Att | 24-37 | 24-33 |
| Yards per pass | 10.8 | 10.9 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Rushing | 181 | 73 |
| Rushing Attempts | 41 | 31 |
| Yards per rush | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| Penalties | 6-65 | 5-55 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 34:40 | 25:20 |
VRTechFan
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Any pass plays in the middle of the field, such as slants should be tossed out of the playbook. I've lost track of how many tipped or batted balls from our 6' + QB that he's thrown. Move him out of the pocket and let him beat the defense with his legs.
VRTechFan
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So your saying Yates should've started? Just kidding or am I?
TampaBuzz
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Actually, in the games that he has started it is true. Against NIU, the quarterback had the ball in his hands when the fumbled occurred during the mesh in the red zone. Two bad things resulted from the fumble: 1) the QB got hurt trying to recover it, and 2) without the fumble we probably score, which changes the complexion of the game and we most likely win. Against UNC, the QB threw the interceptions that resulting in a very early 14 point hole and changed the entire complexion of the game. You can blame the offensive line if you want, but it is the QB's responsibility to protect the ball.
That batted ball against UNC could easily have been intercepted and who knows what would have happened if our receiver didn't make a play and bail him out. If I remember it was still a close game when that occurred. I don't mean to sound like I am against our QB; I'm not. But as a team, we have to take better care of the ball and it starts with the QB.
VRTechFan
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Amen
GTpdm
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I don’t like the universe you live in, in which we apparently lost to (u)NC.
bobongo
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Agreed.
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Maybe starting Yates would have confused Pitt for two plays, but that's about it. For the most part, the blocking is the problem. Here's the first pick (video and comments hidden in a spoiler tag for the squeamish)
I watched this at 1/4 speed--as slow as I could go on YouTube. Pitt ran an interesting stunt. We were running an RPO. They had two unblocked rushers on the left side of our line. The DE at the bottom pulls around towards the center. The Mike LB also blitzes, and draws the center's block, and the end comes untouched up the middle. Either a nickel or LB is blitzing from the bottom of the screen, and is drawing a block from Gibbs after he takes the fake handoff.
I'm not sure if Pitt is in a 4-3 or a 4-2-5 with a stout nickel. Their alignment has a front 7, and they're all coming.
It looks like Pitt is rushing 7 and putting 4 into coverage. We have 5 linemen blocking 3 players. The LG blocks the DT straight in front of him, who slides out onto the tackle into a double team. A genius LG might be able to pick up the end, but it's a split-second decision to do so. The other option is for the center to pick up the end and leave the Mike LB unguarded.
Gibbs would block a 4th, which means that three are coming unblocked at Sims. The left DT who is double-teamed is actually coming off of his block when Sims throws. Sims never sees the end--he only sees the wide open receiver and the ball gets tipped. I'm not sure how that happens, because I sure see that end. If he pulls the ball, he's almost surely getting sacked. Maybe Yates gets sacked instead of throwing.
The view is horrible, and I can't see all the receivers. We have 4 receivers in routes, and Pitt has 4 DBs in coverage. One of our receivers is probably open, but you can't tell from this view if Sims could get them the ball.
The best reasonable hope on this is that Sims gets the ball out of bounds. This blitz vs our play call is a really good call--maybe it's lucky. If you knew this blitz was coming, a quick bubble screen gets good yardage because the DBs are mostly off the line.
The open slant is probably Sim's first read, and it looks like the worst place for the ball to go. I think he never saw the end, or never registered him.
The best option might be to get the ball out of bounds.
There was probably another receiver open in space, but there's no way to tell if Sims had an open passing lane to the receiver.
How much blame do I put on Sims? Some, and I'm not sure how much. Do I think Yates would have done better in this play? It seems like a play he does better on, but I think it's a brutal sack instead of an INT.
The following series, our defense just gets crushed. We really needed to hold them to no more than 3, and we couldn't stop them at all. Getting gashed on the run was the worst part of the follow-up Pitt drive.
I'm not sure if Pitt is in a 4-3 or a 4-2-5 with a stout nickel. Their alignment has a front 7, and they're all coming.
It looks like Pitt is rushing 7 and putting 4 into coverage. We have 5 linemen blocking 3 players. The LG blocks the DT straight in front of him, who slides out onto the tackle into a double team. A genius LG might be able to pick up the end, but it's a split-second decision to do so. The other option is for the center to pick up the end and leave the Mike LB unguarded.
Gibbs would block a 4th, which means that three are coming unblocked at Sims. The left DT who is double-teamed is actually coming off of his block when Sims throws. Sims never sees the end--he only sees the wide open receiver and the ball gets tipped. I'm not sure how that happens, because I sure see that end. If he pulls the ball, he's almost surely getting sacked. Maybe Yates gets sacked instead of throwing.
The view is horrible, and I can't see all the receivers. We have 4 receivers in routes, and Pitt has 4 DBs in coverage. One of our receivers is probably open, but you can't tell from this view if Sims could get them the ball.
The best reasonable hope on this is that Sims gets the ball out of bounds. This blitz vs our play call is a really good call--maybe it's lucky. If you knew this blitz was coming, a quick bubble screen gets good yardage because the DBs are mostly off the line.
The open slant is probably Sim's first read, and it looks like the worst place for the ball to go. I think he never saw the end, or never registered him.
The best option might be to get the ball out of bounds.
There was probably another receiver open in space, but there's no way to tell if Sims had an open passing lane to the receiver.
How much blame do I put on Sims? Some, and I'm not sure how much. Do I think Yates would have done better in this play? It seems like a play he does better on, but I think it's a brutal sack instead of an INT.
The following series, our defense just gets crushed. We really needed to hold them to no more than 3, and we couldn't stop them at all. Getting gashed on the run was the worst part of the follow-up Pitt drive.
Here's the second pick (spoiler protected):
We pull the LG. We show RPO again. We keep a TE in to block. Our line is getting driven back. (click the gear and watch on 0.25 speed). No funny stunts--Pitt rushes straight upfield with 7 and then pulls 2 back. Pitt's #5 has a double-team and is pushing the LT and TE back quickly. The end speed rushes around the pulling LG and gets to Sims with just a shoulder bump. Gibbs might have been able to block the end, but he goes out for an outlet pass. The DT #10 beats a double-team between the RG and RT.
Sims releases the ball quickly, but he's getting hit by two Pitt d-linemen and is about to get hit by a third. I don't put much blame on Sims for this one--the line blocking is falling apart almost instantly. The ball is out in 4 seconds, including a run fake.
Sims had a receiver open and it would have been 6 if he hadn't been hit.
The line just got wrecked on this play.
Sims releases the ball quickly, but he's getting hit by two Pitt d-linemen and is about to get hit by a third. I don't put much blame on Sims for this one--the line blocking is falling apart almost instantly. The ball is out in 4 seconds, including a run fake.
Sims had a receiver open and it would have been 6 if he hadn't been hit.
The line just got wrecked on this play.
ibeattetris
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I'm perfectly fine putting majority of blame on the oline, but Sims did not have to throw the first ball. I can't understand taking away all accountability for throwing a low ball over a defender who was clearly unblocked.
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I don’t think I totally excused him for that throw. I’m kind of shocked that he didn’t see the end right in his passing lane.
ibeattetris
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I wasn't trying to insinuate you said that, but others have, and I was using your post as a conversation continuation.
I feel like we are the type of team where if something goes bad, it goes REALLY bad. We haven't had a lot of penalties, but the penalties we do seem to cluster around the worst possible moments. Sims will play well for all but 30 seconds, but those 30 seconds go really poorly. Reducing the variance of our bad plays alone will be huge (as evidenced by the multiple posts I've seen highlighting the major shift in EPA were centered around a few plays).
first&ten
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Just about the only move we have. Let Collins finish his 7 years, then access the situation whether it's under the current AD or someone else. It may mean deciding to move to FCS or staying FBS. Either one might not be the solution.
Oldgoldandwhite
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Plus, I didn’t see Bama miss a beat when he left.
Oldgoldandwhite
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Just wait until year 8. I guarantee you we will go bowling.
stech81
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I'll need to know who the coach will be in year 8 to see if I agree
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Looking through more of the replay:
- The officials did a terrible job. I mean abysmal. I’m not saying Pitt wouldn’t have won anyway, but if you just watch the condensed game you’ll see holding where the Pitt lineman has his arm around the back of our DE and has a handful of his number. You can’t let that go without calling it. That’s not “hand on the shoulder” stuff; it’s blatant.
- Another highlight had a Pitt receiver run out of bounds on his own and come back in several yards away, and catch a pass for about 25 yards. Maybe the official never saw it, or maybe he just said “close enough to where you went out, since you obviously don’t know”. You can’t excuse that kind of officiating.
- I just watched another badly blown call. smh.
- The ACC will not discipline the officiating crew for that game, but doing nothing corrodes the game and tarnishes our conference.
- We rushed 3 players most of the time, sometimes 4. We let receivers get open with 8 men in coverage. I’d like to give Pickett credit for an incredible QB effort, but we did little to pressure him. When we did, he sidestepped us and bought a ton of time.
- Pitt brought mayhem. They had 7 rush, sometimes 1 or 2 backed out, and they confused our line. Even when they didn’t blitz or stunt, they straight up beat 5-7 blockers with 4 men.
- Our running backs and wide receivers overall played well. There are some beautiful plays they made, and some nice blocks. (There are a couple of times that our RBs did not make a block in the backfield).
- The game was really over by halftime, but I didn’t see anything different after the half, either on offense or defense.
- From previous game film, it was clear that Pickett loves rolling to his right, and you have to contain him on that side. A lot of the time, we didn’t. It’s like we never watched film.
- We should have screened the h*** out of this team. We did some, and it worked great a few times.
- As far as I can tell, our response to Pitt bringing the house was that, sometimes, we had one TE in to block. With McGowan out, we should have had some 2 TE sets.
- Or 2 RB sets. We needed more blocking. Spreading them out was not working
- I do not know when the coaches knew we’d be down 4 guards and our main slot receiver, but their game plan seems to have been “do the same thing we did last week, without many of the same key players”.
- If you can’t convert a single 4th and 1 with these backs, what are you doing?
- The pass coverage was a hot mess Saturday. We had 7-8 men in coverage, and Pitt had receivers open by 5 yards. I don’t have any “all 22” views, but there were no problems finding holes in the zone.
- I know most of my comments have been on offense, but defense was the weaker link. Pitt was going to get some points, but Pitt shouldn’t have gotten 52. Sadly, they could have scored more if they wanted to. There was no pass rush, we weren’t creating coverage sacks, and the second half was identical to the first.
- I don’t understand how we’re a mayhem team and we rush 3, and Pitt is vanilla and they rush 5-7 all the time.
- We created no confusion for Pitt on offense.
- I would have understood if Collins called three time outs in a row in the first quarter to make adjustments on offense and defense. I’d have been fine with that use of time outs. (it’s probably a penalty, but he could have done something before the game started spiraling after one of the INTs)
- As bad as the two interceptions were, we could have still won the game. We could not stop them on defense after the first INT.
- This game did not have to go the way that it did. It’s not just a “we came out flat” situation. In fact, we looked good at first, then went flat after the INT. We had enough talent to win this game, especially on defense.
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