The morning after

Oakland

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Alabama hires new coaches every year. I've heard Saban is hard to work for. The only assistant coach they were concerned about losing was Kirby Smart. No assistant coach from Alabama that became a head football coach has ever beaten Saban since he's been their coach. Key was not a big loss for them.
 

TampaBuzz

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
957
Last year.
How do you figure? Sims has started 2 games this year. Against NIU, the turnover margin was even, but our single turnover was a killer fumbled mesh in the red zone. Against Pitt, the turnover margin was -2; resulting in 14 points for the opposition. In the other 3 games, started by Yates (I am not saying Yates needs to be the starter), our turnover ratio is +4. This includes the turnover against Clemson on the last play of the game on a desperation lateral.

When Sims came in as a sub against UNC, he was stellar. The team committed no turnovers that game and we pretty much scored at will. The point is that Sims needs to figure out how to inspire the offense (and it starts with him) not to turn the ball over when he is the starter. Did you notice that this year we are 0-2 when Sims starts and 2-1 when he doesn't? I want Sims to start because he gives the best chance to score a lot of points, but I also want him to take care of the durn ball.
 

bobongo

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How do you figure? Sims has started 2 games this year. Against NIU, the turnover margin was even, but our single turnover was a killer fumbled mesh in the red zone. Against Pitt, the turnover margin was -2; resulting in 14 points for the opposition. In the other 3 games, started by Yates (I am not saying Yates needs to be the starter), our turnover ratio is +4. This includes the turnover against Clemson on the last play of the game on a desperation lateral.

When Sims came in as a sub against UNC, he was stellar. The team committed no turnovers that game and we pretty much scored at will. The point is that Sims needs to figure out how to inspire the offense (and it starts with him) not to turn the ball over when he is the starter. Did you notice that this year we are 0-2 when Sims starts and 2-1 when he doesn't? I want Sims to start because he gives the best chance to score a lot of points, but I also want him to take care of the durn ball.
You're insinuating he's responsible for all the turnovers while he is on the field, which is obviously not true.
 

takethepoints

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You know Clawson went 3-9 his first 2 years at Wake, right? Sound familiar? He also is 45-45 since he’s been there.

He was 32-31 at Bowling Green before that.

He did have a nice sting at Richmond where he went 29-20. He was 18-17 going into his last year there though.

Before that he was 29-29 at Fordham.

Now whether he’s a great coach or not, I honestly can’t tell you. He’s having a good year this year and has been fine at awake, but he’s essentially a .500 coach.

To suggest he’s some savant and head and shoulders better than Collins seems a bit strange though. At the same point in there career, there’s not much difference from a record standpoint.

You also think Gibbs should be a WR so I’m guessing we just don’t see things the same way.
The difference is improvement. If you look at Clawson's record, in all his coaching spots and add up his wins and losses for the first two years and you get a 32% win rate (30 - 68). Then you look at the next three years and you get a 64% win rate (88 - 50) and that includes 6 out of 11 seasons with 8 wins or more. In short, the overall stats are misleading. And, I might add, his tenure at Wake 247 raecruit average is 63rd in the country since 2017, so recruiting at Tech would probably be easier.

Now, it could be that Collins will turn out to be like Clawson; shoot, we might win 6 - 7 games yet. But if not, then Clawson will be my immediate favorite for a replacement. Provided he's still around and wants to leave Wake, that is. If Wake wins the ACC this year, I doubt he'll be available.

As for Gibbs: he's a good RB and I never denied it. But better then Mason or Smith? Not so much. Putting him at WR and starting either Smith or Mason at RB gets more of our best players on the field at once.
 

slugboy

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Here's another view into "what happened" (https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401282649). It's our Win% chart. 10 plays into the game, Jeff Sims got intercepted, right around the peak around 88 seconds. Our win% went from 44% to 33% on that play (it's right around the cursive "P" in the Pitt logo). On the 17th play, Pitt scores a TD (between the "i" and the first "t" in the Pitt logo). A few plays later, we have the pick-6, and we've spotted Pitt a 14 point lead, and they can go really aggressive in blitzing against us. We claw back bit by bit, but by 21-7 at the end of the first we're back to where we were before. We need unanswered points and we're not getting them.
game-wp-401282649.png


Another view is here--we never overcame our early mistakes. Pitt is the top line, and GT is the bottom in Expected Points. Big mistakes need a lot of consistency to overcome, and we kept hurting ourselves through the game. Graphically, this is a "Pitt played a good and efficient game, and we were the opposite"
game-ep-401282649.png

Here are some numbers from the defensive side.
Stop rate is the percentage of plays a defense gets stops (keeping the other team behind the chains or sticks). Stops: The total number of plays by a defensive player that prevent a successful play by the offense, defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down. In general, "plays" refers to tackles, passes defensed, fumbles forced, or interceptions. The exception is when discussing pass defense data from the FO game charting project, in which case "plays" refers to all charted passes with the given player as the listed defender.
Pitt kept us behind the chains about twice as much as they kept us behind the chains. One of Pitt's sacks may not have even been counted, but was the 33 yard INT of Sims and the second biggest plays of the game.

DefensivePittGT
Scrimmage Plays6176
Stop Rate48%26%
Havoc Plays Created12 (20%)2 (3%)
  Passing5 (15%)1 (3%)
  Rushing7 (25%)1 (3%)
TFLs Generated210
  Passing31
  Rushing71
Sacks Generated2 (6%)1 (3%)
Passes Defensed03
Interceptions20

Those are defensive stats. Pitt ran 15 plays more than we did.

In our rushing game, we were stuffed 29% of the time, stopped for < 2 yards about half the time, and had good runs about 43% of the time. The OL Line Yards are an attempt to measure how much the OL contributed to yardage vs. the RB, and that number is really low. The "Highlight Yards" are the yards attributed to the RB, and with good blocking, that's enough to go crazy. We only got 73 rushing yards for the game--they stuffed us.

RushingPittGT
Scrimmage Plays7661
Rushes40 (53%)28 (46%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2)1 (2%)2 (7%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate)1 (100%)1 (50%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0)5 (12%)8 (29%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2)14 (35%)13 (46%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4)22 (55%)12 (43%)
OL Line Yards89.224.7
  Per Carry2.230.88
Highlight Yards9864.5
  Per Rush Opportunity4.455.38

That's how we got some of these 3rd and 4th down numbers (per ESPN)
MatchupPittGT
1st Downs2721
3rd down efficiency6-132-11
4th down efficiency2-21-4
Total Yards580432
Passing399359
Comp-Att24-3724-33
Yards per pass10.810.9
Interceptions thrown02
Rushing18173
Rushing Attempts4131
Yards per rush4.42.4
Penalties6-655-55
Turnovers02
Fumbles lost00
Interceptions thrown02
Possession34:4025:20
 

VRTechFan

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
83
We all know it takes time for the OLine to be recruited and to gel. Some say 2 years, others say 4. We all understand that. And we’ve been very patient and we all be here next September with high hopes again. But in the meantime do you just let your 4 star QB and RB get mauled, injured, and downtrodden? Or do you work with what you have and play with a system that takes advantage of what you have? Right now, Patenaude with Collins blessing is destroying Sims reputation and confidence with the turnovers, etc. We have plays that work. We had positive plays yesterday with quick passes to space and Gibbs out of the backfield with short passes. But for every smart play call that utilizes our strength, Patenaude calls 3 plays that play to our weakness. It simply doesn’t make sense. And the redzone play calling is the exact same that cost us the Clemson game. Zero change. Do we even watch our own tape? I can’t even imagine what our RB group is thinking today. I feel for our players.
Any pass plays in the middle of the field, such as slants should be tossed out of the playbook. I've lost track of how many tipped or batted balls from our 6' + QB that he's thrown. Move him out of the pocket and let him beat the defense with his legs.
 

VRTechFan

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
83
I’m not a big believer in “momentum”, but I was thinking the first two interceptions were big because they gave Pitt a 14 point cushion and let their defense pin their ears back and go really aggressively against an offensive line with a couple of backups in. It turns out, those two plays were statistically the most consequential in the entire game:
View attachment 11320

Not surprisingly, they were all over our backfield all day, and we were hardly in theirs, and that’s really the story of the game. There was a time in the first half that we could have clawed our way back in the game, but when they hit 28 points in the first half, the game was in horrible shape.
So your saying Yates should've started? Just kidding or am I?
 

TampaBuzz

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
957
You're insinuating he's responsible for all the turnovers while he is on the field, which is obviously not true.
Actually, in the games that he has started it is true. Against NIU, the quarterback had the ball in his hands when the fumbled occurred during the mesh in the red zone. Two bad things resulted from the fumble: 1) the QB got hurt trying to recover it, and 2) without the fumble we probably score, which changes the complexion of the game and we most likely win. Against UNC, the QB threw the interceptions that resulting in a very early 14 point hole and changed the entire complexion of the game. You can blame the offensive line if you want, but it is the QB's responsibility to protect the ball.

That batted ball against UNC could easily have been intercepted and who knows what would have happened if our receiver didn't make a play and bail him out. If I remember it was still a close game when that occurred. I don't mean to sound like I am against our QB; I'm not. But as a team, we have to take better care of the ball and it starts with the QB.
 

VRTechFan

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
83
How do you figure? Sims has started 2 games this year. Against NIU, the turnover margin was even, but our single turnover was a killer fumbled mesh in the red zone. Against Pitt, the turnover margin was -2; resulting in 14 points for the opposition. In the other 3 games, started by Yates (I am not saying Yates needs to be the starter), our turnover ratio is +4. This includes the turnover against Clemson on the last play of the game on a desperation lateral.

When Sims came in as a sub against UNC, he was stellar. The team committed no turnovers that game and we pretty much scored at will. The point is that Sims needs to figure out how to inspire the offense (and it starts with him) not to turn the ball over when he is the starter. Did you notice that this year we are 0-2 when Sims starts and 2-1 when he doesn't? I want Sims to start because he gives the best chance to score a lot of points, but I also want him to take care of the durn ball.
Amen
 

GTpdm

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Atlanta GA
Actually, in the games that he has started it is true. Against NIU, the quarterback had the ball in his hands when the fumbled occurred during the mesh in the red zone. Two bad things resulted from the fumble: 1) the QB got hurt trying to recover it, and 2) without the fumble we probably score, which changes the complexion of the game and we most likely win. Against UNC, the QB threw the interceptions that resulting in a very early 14 point hole and changed the entire complexion of the game. You can blame the offensive line if you want, but it is the QB's responsibility to protect the ball.

That batted ball against UNC could easily have been intercepted and who knows what would have happened if our receiver didn't make a play and bail him out. If I remember it was still a close game when that occurred. I don't mean to sound like I am against our QB; I'm not. But as a team, we have to take better care of the ball and it starts with the QB.
I don’t like the universe you live in, in which we apparently lost to (u)NC. ;)
 

slugboy

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So your saying Yates should've started? Just kidding or am I?
Maybe starting Yates would have confused Pitt for two plays, but that's about it. For the most part, the blocking is the problem. Here's the first pick (video and comments hidden in a spoiler tag for the squeamish)

I watched this at 1/4 speed--as slow as I could go on YouTube. Pitt ran an interesting stunt. We were running an RPO. They had two unblocked rushers on the left side of our line. The DE at the bottom pulls around towards the center. The Mike LB also blitzes, and draws the center's block, and the end comes untouched up the middle. Either a nickel or LB is blitzing from the bottom of the screen, and is drawing a block from Gibbs after he takes the fake handoff.
I'm not sure if Pitt is in a 4-3 or a 4-2-5 with a stout nickel. Their alignment has a front 7, and they're all coming.
It looks like Pitt is rushing 7 and putting 4 into coverage. We have 5 linemen blocking 3 players. The LG blocks the DT straight in front of him, who slides out onto the tackle into a double team. A genius LG might be able to pick up the end, but it's a split-second decision to do so. The other option is for the center to pick up the end and leave the Mike LB unguarded.
Gibbs would block a 4th, which means that three are coming unblocked at Sims. The left DT who is double-teamed is actually coming off of his block when Sims throws. Sims never sees the end--he only sees the wide open receiver and the ball gets tipped. I'm not sure how that happens, because I sure see that end. If he pulls the ball, he's almost surely getting sacked. Maybe Yates gets sacked instead of throwing.
The view is horrible, and I can't see all the receivers. We have 4 receivers in routes, and Pitt has 4 DBs in coverage. One of our receivers is probably open, but you can't tell from this view if Sims could get them the ball.
The best reasonable hope on this is that Sims gets the ball out of bounds. This blitz vs our play call is a really good call--maybe it's lucky. If you knew this blitz was coming, a quick bubble screen gets good yardage because the DBs are mostly off the line.
The open slant is probably Sim's first read, and it looks like the worst place for the ball to go. I think he never saw the end, or never registered him.
The best option might be to get the ball out of bounds.
There was probably another receiver open in space, but there's no way to tell if Sims had an open passing lane to the receiver.


How much blame do I put on Sims? Some, and I'm not sure how much. Do I think Yates would have done better in this play? It seems like a play he does better on, but I think it's a brutal sack instead of an INT.

The following series, our defense just gets crushed. We really needed to hold them to no more than 3, and we couldn't stop them at all. Getting gashed on the run was the worst part of the follow-up Pitt drive.


Here's the second pick (spoiler protected):

We pull the LG. We show RPO again. We keep a TE in to block. Our line is getting driven back. (click the gear and watch on 0.25 speed). No funny stunts--Pitt rushes straight upfield with 7 and then pulls 2 back. Pitt's #5 has a double-team and is pushing the LT and TE back quickly. The end speed rushes around the pulling LG and gets to Sims with just a shoulder bump. Gibbs might have been able to block the end, but he goes out for an outlet pass. The DT #10 beats a double-team between the RG and RT.
1633383069021.png

Sims releases the ball quickly, but he's getting hit by two Pitt d-linemen and is about to get hit by a third. I don't put much blame on Sims for this one--the line blocking is falling apart almost instantly. The ball is out in 4 seconds, including a run fake.
Sims had a receiver open and it would have been 6 if he hadn't been hit.
The line just got wrecked on this play.
 

ibeattetris

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3,551
Maybe starting Yates would have confused Pitt for two plays, but that's about it. For the most part, the blocking is the problem. Here's the first pick (video and comments hidden in a spoiler tag for the squeamish)

I watched this at 1/4 speed--as slow as I could go on YouTube. Pitt ran an interesting stunt. We were running an RPO. They had two unblocked rushers on the left side of our line. The DE at the bottom pulls around towards the center. The Mike LB also blitzes, and draws the center's block, and the end comes untouched up the middle. Either a nickel or LB is blitzing from the bottom of the screen, and is drawing a block from Gibbs after he takes the fake handoff.
I'm not sure if Pitt is in a 4-3 or a 4-2-5 with a stout nickel. Their alignment has a front 7, and they're all coming.
It looks like Pitt is rushing 7 and putting 4 into coverage. We have 5 linemen blocking 3 players. The LG blocks the DT straight in front of him, who slides out onto the tackle into a double team. A genius LG might be able to pick up the end, but it's a split-second decision to do so. The other option is for the center to pick up the end and leave the Mike LB unguarded.
Gibbs would block a 4th, which means that three are coming unblocked at Sims. The left DT who is double-teamed is actually coming off of his block when Sims throws. Sims never sees the end--he only sees the wide open receiver and the ball gets tipped. I'm not sure how that happens, because I sure see that end. If he pulls the ball, he's almost surely getting sacked. Maybe Yates gets sacked instead of throwing.
The view is horrible, and I can't see all the receivers. We have 4 receivers in routes, and Pitt has 4 DBs in coverage. One of our receivers is probably open, but you can't tell from this view if Sims could get them the ball.
The best reasonable hope on this is that Sims gets the ball out of bounds. This blitz vs our play call is a really good call--maybe it's lucky. If you knew this blitz was coming, a quick bubble screen gets good yardage because the DBs are mostly off the line.
The open slant is probably Sim's first read, and it looks like the worst place for the ball to go. I think he never saw the end, or never registered him.
The best option might be to get the ball out of bounds.
There was probably another receiver open in space, but there's no way to tell if Sims had an open passing lane to the receiver.


How much blame do I put on Sims? Some, and I'm not sure how much. Do I think Yates would have done better in this play? It seems like a play he does better on, but I think it's a brutal sack instead of an INT.

The following series, our defense just gets crushed. We really needed to hold them to no more than 3, and we couldn't stop them at all. Getting gashed on the run was the worst part of the follow-up Pitt drive.


Here's the second pick (spoiler protected):

We pull the LG. We show RPO again. We keep a TE in to block. Our line is getting driven back. (click the gear and watch on 0.25 speed). No funny stunts--Pitt rushes straight upfield with 7 and then pulls 2 back. Pitt's #5 has a double-team and is pushing the LT and TE back quickly. The end speed rushes around the pulling LG and gets to Sims with just a shoulder bump. Gibbs might have been able to block the end, but he goes out for an outlet pass. The DT #10 beats a double-team between the RG and RT.
View attachment 11324
Sims releases the ball quickly, but he's getting hit by two Pitt d-linemen and is about to get hit by a third. I don't put much blame on Sims for this one--the line blocking is falling apart almost instantly. The ball is out in 4 seconds, including a run fake.
Sims had a receiver open and it would have been 6 if he hadn't been hit.
The line just got wrecked on this play.

I'm perfectly fine putting majority of blame on the oline, but Sims did not have to throw the first ball. I can't understand taking away all accountability for throwing a low ball over a defender who was clearly unblocked.
 

slugboy

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I'm perfectly fine putting majority of blame on the oline, but Sims did not have to throw the first ball. I can't understand taking away all accountability for throwing a low ball over a defender who was clearly unblocked.
I don’t think I totally excused him for that throw. I’m kind of shocked that he didn’t see the end right in his passing lane.
 

ibeattetris

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I don’t think I totally excused him for that throw. I’m kind of shocked that he didn’t see the end right in his passing lane.
I wasn't trying to insinuate you said that, but others have, and I was using your post as a conversation continuation.

I feel like we are the type of team where if something goes bad, it goes REALLY bad. We haven't had a lot of penalties, but the penalties we do seem to cluster around the worst possible moments. Sims will play well for all but 30 seconds, but those 30 seconds go really poorly. Reducing the variance of our bad plays alone will be huge (as evidenced by the multiple posts I've seen highlighting the major shift in EPA were centered around a few plays).
 

first&ten

Ramblin' Wreck
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880
SandySprings, your morning scene is me exactly. And the fact that we are in the third year of this makes it that much worse. I will add that I was for bringing in a PJ disciple, not a coach with a new offense. But I have seen some things this year that lead me to believe that if I can remain patient, this is going to work out.

Collins was brought in because it was believed he could increase the talent level. If you look at our backs, receivers, slot receivers, and the quarterbacks, I think he has. These guys all have big play speed. And they should be around a while. If he got those, he should be able to add to them in years to come. When Sims thew the high arching touchdown pass Saturday, that completed the deal for me. Before he always tried to make that throw too flat. He can run well and make all the throws. He just needs to keep growing, but we can win at a high level with him.

We were missing some starting offensive linemen. Just okay offensive line performance would have meant a very different game. The early turnovers probably wouldn't have happened. Our inability to punch in touchdowns or short yardage first downs was because in those situations you must get some push from your line, and we couldn't.

Someone who posts on the HIve as 57something pointed out that most of Key's line recruits are freshmen. I looked at the whole team's class standings on the above the line for Pitt. The ratio of freshmen to seniors across the board is amazing, but especially on both lines.

Saturday was pretty awful, but I have seen enough good play calls both defensively and offensively to think our coordinators are not idiots. Let us hope that Collins and the coordinators are learning and growing too.

I have no answer for the defense, other than to say we saw them play well just two weeks ago.

It has been made clear that our budget is not going to allow for a coaching change any time soon. Besides, I don't want to see the chaos of another complete turnover with three more years of a new staff
with no guarantee that the new staff will be better. Kim King said that the greatest factor in college football success is coaching continuity.

Let's let the season play out. Maybe there will be more UNCs and fewer Pitts in our future.
Just about the only move we have. Let Collins finish his 7 years, then access the situation whether it's under the current AD or someone else. It may mean deciding to move to FCS or staying FBS. Either one might not be the solution.
 

slugboy

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I wasn't trying to insinuate you said that, but others have, and I was using your post as a conversation continuation.

I feel like we are the type of team where if something goes bad, it goes REALLY bad. We haven't had a lot of penalties, but the penalties we do seem to cluster around the worst possible moments. Sims will play well for all but 30 seconds, but those 30 seconds go really poorly. Reducing the variance of our bad plays alone will be huge (as evidenced by the multiple posts I've seen highlighting the major shift in EPA were centered around a few plays).
Looking through more of the replay:
  1. The officials did a terrible job. I mean abysmal. I’m not saying Pitt wouldn’t have won anyway, but if you just watch the condensed game you’ll see holding where the Pitt lineman has his arm around the back of our DE and has a handful of his number. You can’t let that go without calling it. That’s not “hand on the shoulder” stuff; it’s blatant.
  2. Another highlight had a Pitt receiver run out of bounds on his own and come back in several yards away, and catch a pass for about 25 yards. Maybe the official never saw it, or maybe he just said “close enough to where you went out, since you obviously don’t know”. You can’t excuse that kind of officiating.
  3. I just watched another badly blown call. smh.
  4. The ACC will not discipline the officiating crew for that game, but doing nothing corrodes the game and tarnishes our conference.
  5. We rushed 3 players most of the time, sometimes 4. We let receivers get open with 8 men in coverage. I’d like to give Pickett credit for an incredible QB effort, but we did little to pressure him. When we did, he sidestepped us and bought a ton of time.
  6. Pitt brought mayhem. They had 7 rush, sometimes 1 or 2 backed out, and they confused our line. Even when they didn’t blitz or stunt, they straight up beat 5-7 blockers with 4 men.
  7. Our running backs and wide receivers overall played well. There are some beautiful plays they made, and some nice blocks. (There are a couple of times that our RBs did not make a block in the backfield).
  8. The game was really over by halftime, but I didn’t see anything different after the half, either on offense or defense.
  9. From previous game film, it was clear that Pickett loves rolling to his right, and you have to contain him on that side. A lot of the time, we didn’t. It’s like we never watched film.
  10. We should have screened the h*** out of this team. We did some, and it worked great a few times.
  11. As far as I can tell, our response to Pitt bringing the house was that, sometimes, we had one TE in to block. With McGowan out, we should have had some 2 TE sets.
  12. Or 2 RB sets. We needed more blocking. Spreading them out was not working
  13. I do not know when the coaches knew we’d be down 4 guards and our main slot receiver, but their game plan seems to have been “do the same thing we did last week, without many of the same key players”.
  14. If you can’t convert a single 4th and 1 with these backs, what are you doing?
  15. The pass coverage was a hot mess Saturday. We had 7-8 men in coverage, and Pitt had receivers open by 5 yards. I don’t have any “all 22” views, but there were no problems finding holes in the zone.
  16. I know most of my comments have been on offense, but defense was the weaker link. Pitt was going to get some points, but Pitt shouldn’t have gotten 52. Sadly, they could have scored more if they wanted to. There was no pass rush, we weren’t creating coverage sacks, and the second half was identical to the first.
  17. I don’t understand how we’re a mayhem team and we rush 3, and Pitt is vanilla and they rush 5-7 all the time.
  18. We created no confusion for Pitt on offense.
  19. I would have understood if Collins called three time outs in a row in the first quarter to make adjustments on offense and defense. I’d have been fine with that use of time outs. (it’s probably a penalty, but he could have done something before the game started spiraling after one of the INTs)
  20. As bad as the two interceptions were, we could have still won the game. We could not stop them on defense after the first INT.
  21. This game did not have to go the way that it did. It’s not just a “we came out flat” situation. In fact, we looked good at first, then went flat after the INT. We had enough talent to win this game, especially on defense.
 
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