The End of College Sports As We Know It

[stinger78]

Reading the articles one note is that 50% of the money in the educational trust that would be established by a University has to meet Title IX - basically the money has to go to women sports.
Beyond that, there is no maximum put in the document, only a minimum - $30K per every 2 athletes at a school.
If a University wants to create a trust that pays every athlete $100K, they can do that.

NCAA president proposes creation of subdivision allowing schools to directly compensate student-athletes

Charlie Baker's plan is a radical attempt to move the NCAA to the front of the compensation conversation

www.cbssports.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12/05/ncaa-economic-proposal-smart/

" Money distributed by the university would be subject to Title IX requirements, meaning half the allocated money would be required to go to female athletes. "

"Player compensation gaps will inevitably emerge inside every conference, even the big ones — Ohio State will surely pay more than Purdue; same for Alabama compared with Mississippi State — and eventually, the tribal identity of the sport will migrate completely from history and geography to economics and marketability."

"The football-based subdivision would be independent of the FBS and FCS dichotomy. Teams at either level are eligible to opt into the football subdivision. However, teams that opt in will ultimately be able to exist at a different level than the rest of college football. The group could decide different roster sizes, recruitment practices, transfer or NIL rules, even while competing against other members of FBS or FCS working under the existing rules. "

Honestly? A floor but no ceiling? What in blazes will that accomplish but bankrupting a bunch of AA's? The arms race will still be on. The poor will be paying the minimum of $15K per SA, but the rich will continue a race to the top. I wonder where the athlete will go?

This has become a shakedown for journeyman athletes. TBH, I want no part of it.

 

[Ibeeballin]

Thank you, Jesus! Please let this happen next year, and please give GA Tech administrators the sense to let these morons go and get back to college football.

If GT is left out, our program would last a single fiscal year maybe 2 max. Be careful what you ask for

 

[stinger78]

If GT is left out, our program would last a single fiscal year maybe 2 max. Be careful what you ask for

You're welcome to your opinion, but I disagree. Most al of the teams we play would most likely be in the same division with us. The only issue would be if Tech alumni/boosters would still support it. I think they would.

 

[Techster]

Largest endowment of any school from what I’ve read.

I forget what investor it was, they labeled Harvard, and most Ivy League schools, as a hedge fund that has a school.

If you think about it, it's true.

 

[RamblinRed]

This is not true.

BDS capacity is 55,000. Our attendance this year was 31,452/30,097/35,656/35,945/33,332/51,447 for a total of 217,929 for the six home games. That's an average of 36,322 and represents 66.04% of the capacity of BDS. So, while not good, we are well over half the capacity of BDS.

Note: The UL game was at MBS, but I used the BDS capacity since I do not know how many seats were available for that game.

Data source: GTAA published attendance

I would assume the attendance number is tickets sold, not butts in seats. Pretty much all entities - professional and college report tickets sold, not how many are in the stadium.
There was an article from the Wall Street Journal on that a couple of years ago where they went back and got the actual tickets scanned numbers from over 100 FBS schools and the avg ratio of butts in seats vs tickets sold was around 70% for FBS programs. There were a handful of schools who were over 90% and I remember being surprised by what schools they were. They were not the ones you would assume.

College football's attendance problem is secretly huge

College football attendance is dropping, but the problem is much bigger than most people know.

sports.yahoo.com

I believe the number for GT was around 80%. Article is now behind a paywall so I can't double check that. Assuming my memory isn't faulty that would mean GT's 'real' attendance is more in the 28-29K range.

 

[roadkill]

You're welcome to your opinion, but I disagree. Most al of the teams we play would most likely be in the same division with us. The only issue would be if Tech alumni/boosters would still support it. I think they would.

Loss of revenue would be a problem, and a potential drop in alumni/booster support isn't the biggest issue. We are more dependent on Media $ than most of our peer institutions. TV revenue plus ticket sales makes up almost half our revenue. We would likely suffer a significant loss there, at least in media revenue. This would cause us to fall well behind our peer institutions in revenue (and I'm taking schools like UVA and Louisville, for ex., not Clemson). Not a good situation for staying competitive.

 

[stinger78]

I would think as ticket sales go lower that the difference shrinks due to a higher concentration of committed fans buying tickets.

 

[Ibeeballin]

You're welcome to your opinion, but I disagree. Most al of the teams we play would most likely be in the same division with us. The only issue would be if Tech alumni/boosters would still support it. I think they would.

I’m not stating an opinion. Without the media rights deal money, the GTAA would be bankrupt. A junior league wouldn’t command the money we are currently getting to stay afloat

 

[orientalnc]

I would assume the attendance number is tickets sold, not butts in seats. Pretty much all entities - professional and college report tickets sold, not how many are in the stadium.
There was an article from the Wall Street Journal on that a couple of years ago where they went back and got the actual tickets scanned numbers from over 100 FBS schools and the avg ratio of butts in seats vs tickets sold was around 70% for FBS programs. There were a handful of schools who were over 90% and I remember being surprised by what schools they were. They were not the ones you would assume.

College football's attendance problem is secretly huge

College football attendance is dropping, but the problem is much bigger than most people know.

sports.yahoo.com

I believe the number for GT was around 80%. Article is now behind a paywall so I can't double check that. Assuming my memory isn't faulty that would mean GT's 'real' attendance is more in the 28-29K range.

This is a tacky point, but 80% of our reported number would still be more than half. The numbers would be worse if we didn't have fans from uga and Clemson boosting our numbers in alternating years. But, I do not think our attendance has ever recovered from our exit from the SEC. The loss of those historic rivalries has never been replaced by new rivalries of the same intensity.

 

[GTRambler]

I would assume the attendance number is tickets sold, not butts in seats. Pretty much all entities - professional and college report tickets sold, not how many are in the stadium.
There was an article from the Wall Street Journal on that a couple of years ago where they went back and got the actual tickets scanned numbers from over 100 FBS schools and the avg ratio of butts in seats vs tickets sold was around 70% for FBS programs. There were a handful of schools who were over 90% and I remember being surprised by what schools they were. They were not the ones you would assume.

College football's attendance problem is secretly huge

College football attendance is dropping, but the problem is much bigger than most people know.

sports.yahoo.com

I believe the number for GT was around 80%. Article is now behind a paywall so I can't double check that. Assuming my memory isn't faulty that would mean GT's 'real' attendance is more in the 28-29K range.

I think, if I’m not mistaken, that I read something from some article somewhere, about a year or two ago, that Georgia Tech’s current (or recent?) season ticket sales figure is around 25,000.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

This is a tacky point, but 80% of our reported number would still be more than half. The numbers would be worse if we didn't have fans from uga and Clemson boosting our numbers in alternating years. But, I do not think our attendance has ever recovered from our exit from the SEC. The loss of those historic rivalries has never been replaced by new rivalries of the same intensity.

Anyone remember when Tech expanded seating to 60,000 because of the demand for tickets? This was after leaving the SEC.
I seem to recall attending a game in which the estimated attendance was well over 61,000. No, it didn’t last. Tech kept falling behind uga in wins, money, the head to head series, and attendance fell.

 

[LongforDodd]

....Counting on ESPN as a revenue partner driving all this is imo insane. ....

This.

If ESPN is having issues now with the popularity of college football, what is going to reverse these trends for them? This new model? I doubt it unless they refocus on sports and cancel the "sideshows".

 

[stinger78]

This.

If ESPN is having issues now with the popularity of college football, what is going to reverse these trends for them? This new model? I doubt it unless they refocus on sports and cancel the "sideshows".

ESPN has become a bane of college athletics. First, they over-exposed the product - made it too plentiful - and it became less valuable to consumers, creating a TV model rather than a live model. I hardly ever watch a college football game anymore outside Tech. Second, they have pumped far too much money into the sport, bankrolling the huge run-up in costs, and placing all but the top handful of programs on the brink of bankruptcy. Third, they have taken sides in the game, creating an uneven playing field and harming the competitive balance.

 

[stinger78]

Loss of revenue would be a problem, and a potential drop in alumni/booster support isn't the biggest issue. We are more dependent on Media $ than most of our peer institutions. TV revenue plus ticket sales makes up almost half our revenue. We would likely suffer a significant loss there, at least in media revenue. This would cause us to fall well behind our peer institutions in revenue (and I'm taking schools like UVA and Louisville, for ex., not Clemson). Not a good situation for staying competitive.

So, you guys think The Great TV Benefactor (sEcSPN) is going to let a whole strata of football programs die due to lack of "media dollars?" That's half to two-thirds of the current P5? Sorry, no bueno. Will costs have to scale back? Yes, but that's the natural consequence of moving away from those who are driving it up in the first place. It will survive, albeit a bit differently... kind of like, say, circa 1990?

 

[Randy Carson]

Harvard’s endowment is larger than the GDP of several countries… they could easily play this game if they wanted to. But they’re smarter than that.

I had that exact thought yesterday.

And I contend that Harvard's alumni enjoy tailgating as much as the average GT fan.

But promotion/relegation adds a dimension to EVERY regular season game that is largely lacking today: meaning.

 

[LongforDodd]

This is not true.

BDS capacity is 55,000. Our attendance this year was 31,452/30,097/35,656/35,945/33,332/51,447 for a total of 217,929 for the six home games. That's an average of 36,322 and represents 66.04% of the capacity of BDS. So, while not good, we are well over half the capacity of BDS.

Note: The UL game was at MBS, but I used the BDS capacity since I do not know how many seats were available for that game.

Data source: GTAA published attendance

Could those numbers be tickets sold? I didn't make it to a game this year due to getting a new knee in March but from, say, the previous two years I doubt that the stadium was half full even though the GTAA published numbers were similar.

 

[LongforDodd]

Largest endowment of any school from what I’ve read.

50 large ones, I heard just this morning from an alum of their law school. He was discussing other serious issues at Harvard and not football.

 

[Randy Carson]

To use a poor comparison that still grieves me:

Back in MY day and for a decade or two after, you had a pretty hard time getting into Alexander Memorial Coliseum. Today, not even the Duke game sold out.

What's changed? Winning.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Hope I can format this right.

A comparison of stadium capacity between Tech and uga over the years, just the highlights since they rarely expanded at the same time or rate.

uga Tech
1948
30,000 44,000
1963
36,000 53,300
1966
43,621
1967
59,200 58,121
1981
82,122
1986
46,000
2001
41,000
Present
92,058 43,719

A few things I notice.

After Tech left the SEC, they still (briefly) outdrew the mutts.

Following 1967, Atlanta newspapers routinely reported Tech’s capacity as 60,000 and even reported a game as having over 61,000, though I don’t know how to verify that now.

uga’s first big expansion coincided with winning a national championship. A few years after Tech’s national championship talk was always about reducing stadium size. Newspapers reported reducing down to 35,000 at one point.

Georgia, beginning in 1981, expanded every 2-3 years adding around 2000 seats each time and managing to keep the original symmetry intact.

Tech was already battling for entertainment dollars in 1966 when the Braves came to Atlanta. That team featuring Hank Aaron, Rico Carty and Joe Torre, routinely packed Fulton County Stadium. The previous year the Atlanta Falcons had set an NFL record for a new franchise by selling 40,000 preseason tickets. By 1968 Atlanta had added professional basketball and soccer. This was a tough time for Tech, having expanded the stadium to its largest capacity. By 1972 Atlanta had hockey giving transplants to Atlanta something to do other than trying to learn the traditions of southern college football. The attendance numbers didn’t have to be great for any of the 5 professional teams to cut into Tech’s slice of the sports pie.

Much more I could add but would be interested in other people’s thoughts.

 

[stingerman]

Hope I can format this right.

A comparison of stadium capacity between Tech and uga over the years, just the highlights since they rarely expanded at the same time or rate.

uga Tech
1948
30,000 44,000
1963
36,000 53,300
1966
43,621
1967
59,200 58,121
1981
82,122
1986
46,000
2001
41,000
Present
92,058 43,719

A few things I notice.

After Tech left the SEC, they still (briefly) outdrew the mutts.

Following 1967, Atlanta newspapers routinely reported Tech’s capacity as 60,000 and even reported a game as having over 61,000, though I don’t know how to verify that now.

uga’s first big expansion coincided with winning a national championship. A few years after Tech’s national championship talk was always about reducing stadium size. Newspapers reported reducing down to 35,000 at one point.

Georgia, beginning in 1981, expanded every 2-3 years adding around 2000 seats each time and managing to keep the original symmetry intact.

Tech was already battling for entertainment dollars in 1966 when the Braves came to Atlanta. That team featuring Hank Aaron, Rico Carty and Joe Torre, routinely packed Fulton County Stadium. The previous year the Atlanta Falcons had set an NFL record for a new franchise by selling 40,000 preseason tickets. By 1968 Atlanta had added professional basketball and soccer. This was a tough time for Tech, having expanded the stadium to its largest capacity. By 1972 Atlanta had hockey giving transplants to Atlanta something to do other than trying to learn the traditions of southern college football. The attendance numbers didn’t have to be great for any of the 5 professional teams to cut into Tech’s slice of the sports pie.

Much more I could add but would be interested in other people’s thoughts.

I don't know what the future holds. But I do know that Tech is growing and that live non-sports entertainment is growing. I'm wondering if there is a long-term model for a state of the art entertainment facility that would work for football, soccer, and live music that would greatly expand the revenue stream. If we could develop a GT version of the Battery from the Dodd down to Centennial Olympic Park with a new right-size facility, with immediate access to MARTA, Midtown, and a huge student body, perhaps there is a model for us that does not rely so much on TV dollars for a single sport.