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This is probably behind a paywall but it is a really fascinating article on how football is changing in America in terms of demographics, geographics, and even how the sport itself is played from an early age.
The top line is that participation in football has been decreasing steadily for a decade.
Participation has fallen 17 percent since 2006, when more than 1.1 million boys played the sport, a larger decline than any of the other top 10 most popular boys’ sports. Participation in tackle football among kids ages 6 to 12 fell 13 percent from 2019 to 2022, according to annual survey data from the Sports and Fitness Industry Association (SFIA).
In the last 10 years only 2 states have seen an increase in the number of youth playing football - AL and Miss. Even in TX participation has dropped 12% over the last decade.
An individual is much more likely to be playing football if they live in the South, Midwest, or Central Plains parts of the US, than if they live in the NE, Mid-Atlantic, or West Coast. The higher rates of football participation are almost exclusively in states with medium household incomes below the national average. The highest participation rates are in the Deep South.
Among kids and teens, White and Black males are playing tackle football at declining rates, while Hispanic boys increasingly take up the sport. In college, the proportion of White players is declining, and that of Black players rising, at faster rates than national demographic changes.
Participation from 2014 to 2022 by white kids has declined from 10% to 7.5%. Black participation has declined from 16% to 11%, Hispanic participation has increased from 4% to 7%.
At the college level the percentage of white football players has dropped from 55% to 44% while the percentage of black players has increased from 36% to 40%. The share of players who identify as multiple races has increased from 2% to 6%.
Overall they are seeing football being played much less in wealthier communities and rising in impoverished communities.
The other big change is the movement to flag football instead of tackle football across America (something that the NFL has supported with its NFL Flag program).
Eight states have sanctioned girls’ flag football as an interscholastic sport at the high school level, and as many as 20 more are considering similar steps. Flag football will be a sport at the 2028 Olympics.
In 2017 particpation in flag football surpassed tackle football in youth leagues for the first time - 1M vs 725K for kids 6-12.
Flag football is seen as less expensive, less dangerous, and more inclusive (there are many girls flag football leagues). It is also much more prevalent in wealthy, white communities.
When the Aspen Institute surveyed children in grades 3 through 12, it found that White children played flag football at a significantly higher rate than they played tackle, while the opposite was true for Black children.
6 states have introduced bills that would ban tackle football for children younger than 12. None of have passed yet.
The biggest driver for these changes is obviously CTE. Families from wealthier backgrounds are now largely encouraging their kids not to play tackle football, while poorer kids still see it as their best way out of poverty.
NFL has largely been trying to walk a tight rope to prevent continued declines in participation - encouraging flag football at an early age and then hoping to convert kids to tackle football later on.
“The future of football,” top NFL executives have declared publicly several times in recent months, “is flag.”
Some have questioned whether the NFL can ever completely reject youth tackle football, because of the implicit message it would send. “Banning tackle football for kids until high school becomes the warning label on the cigarettes,” documentary filmmaker Sean Pamphilon said during an Aspen Institute panel. “It will impact the way we see the game once we truly are honest about the way it impacts human beings of any age.”
These are just sort of the top line takeaways from the article. There is alot more in depth discussion if you can read it.
The top line is that participation in football has been decreasing steadily for a decade.
Participation has fallen 17 percent since 2006, when more than 1.1 million boys played the sport, a larger decline than any of the other top 10 most popular boys’ sports. Participation in tackle football among kids ages 6 to 12 fell 13 percent from 2019 to 2022, according to annual survey data from the Sports and Fitness Industry Association (SFIA).
In the last 10 years only 2 states have seen an increase in the number of youth playing football - AL and Miss. Even in TX participation has dropped 12% over the last decade.
An individual is much more likely to be playing football if they live in the South, Midwest, or Central Plains parts of the US, than if they live in the NE, Mid-Atlantic, or West Coast. The higher rates of football participation are almost exclusively in states with medium household incomes below the national average. The highest participation rates are in the Deep South.
Among kids and teens, White and Black males are playing tackle football at declining rates, while Hispanic boys increasingly take up the sport. In college, the proportion of White players is declining, and that of Black players rising, at faster rates than national demographic changes.
Participation from 2014 to 2022 by white kids has declined from 10% to 7.5%. Black participation has declined from 16% to 11%, Hispanic participation has increased from 4% to 7%.
At the college level the percentage of white football players has dropped from 55% to 44% while the percentage of black players has increased from 36% to 40%. The share of players who identify as multiple races has increased from 2% to 6%.
Overall they are seeing football being played much less in wealthier communities and rising in impoverished communities.
The other big change is the movement to flag football instead of tackle football across America (something that the NFL has supported with its NFL Flag program).
Eight states have sanctioned girls’ flag football as an interscholastic sport at the high school level, and as many as 20 more are considering similar steps. Flag football will be a sport at the 2028 Olympics.
In 2017 particpation in flag football surpassed tackle football in youth leagues for the first time - 1M vs 725K for kids 6-12.
Flag football is seen as less expensive, less dangerous, and more inclusive (there are many girls flag football leagues). It is also much more prevalent in wealthy, white communities.
When the Aspen Institute surveyed children in grades 3 through 12, it found that White children played flag football at a significantly higher rate than they played tackle, while the opposite was true for Black children.
6 states have introduced bills that would ban tackle football for children younger than 12. None of have passed yet.
The biggest driver for these changes is obviously CTE. Families from wealthier backgrounds are now largely encouraging their kids not to play tackle football, while poorer kids still see it as their best way out of poverty.
NFL has largely been trying to walk a tight rope to prevent continued declines in participation - encouraging flag football at an early age and then hoping to convert kids to tackle football later on.
“The future of football,” top NFL executives have declared publicly several times in recent months, “is flag.”
Some have questioned whether the NFL can ever completely reject youth tackle football, because of the implicit message it would send. “Banning tackle football for kids until high school becomes the warning label on the cigarettes,” documentary filmmaker Sean Pamphilon said during an Aspen Institute panel. “It will impact the way we see the game once we truly are honest about the way it impacts human beings of any age.”
These are just sort of the top line takeaways from the article. There is alot more in depth discussion if you can read it.
