The ACC will delay the start of competition for all fall sports until at least Sept. 1

[33jacket]

50 percent of the deaths come from 1.8 percent of the population that resided in senior care facilities of which 60 percent of those were in new york alone. If u wish to read about that brain dead decision go ahead. But of the 115k that have passed around 55k or so from that small population.

the other 50 percent something like 85 percent or so had pre existing conditions or were over 75; in total for fatalities the numbers towards the elderly and already very sick are staggering.

this isn’t statistically an issue for a 19 year old college ball player; who is going to generally be in top physical condition unless they may have some prior undetected serious pre-ex. In fact; numerically for those below 60 it isnt that much different than the flu and certainly not as lethal as the swine flu or sars.

this is more contagious and can be passed asymptomatic. So. What this topic is around is spreading a virus to those vulnerable from the otherwise healthy. And it appears limiting group’ gatherings is a way to aide that. Is canceling college football or other sports going to help????? No idea. Because the fact remains its going to spread regardless of that sporting event. Folks who are asymptomatic dont know they have it by vuture of having no symptoms.....therefore will behave normal and spread it. Thats the true issue here.

All clemson players not one had symptoms. What is apparent is that is more common for the youth than elderly. To have it and not show symptoms.

My personal view is if u are older or have pre-ex be really careful about your group exposure. Its easier for you to control your single self than 100s controlling themselves to you. Plaaaaayyyyy Baaaallllll. Stay home if needed and if have family friends you know are socially active or at work suggest limiting contact and wearing masks at all time. Just my view.

Its so hard to prevent spread when the youth in many times show zero. Its impossible really. Probably like all this stuff gets canceled or moved. Some not necessarily medically relevant. Even the 6 feet is not medically factual. Its more like 15. 6 even with a mask is exposure. First it was dont touch anything it can be spread by surface. Now they came out and said yeah it really cant last week. “They” dont even know enough. So the flat fear is driving alot of the decision making and its why I believe season’s likely to be impacted.....right or not

 

[GTRambler]

Here’s what Dr. Anthony Fauci says:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29328206/dr-anthony-fauci-football-needs-bubble-format-play-2020

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Here’s what Dr. Anthony Fauci says:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29328206/dr-anthony-fauci-football-needs-bubble-format-play-2020
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29328206/dr-anthony-fauci-football-needs-bubble-format-play-2020

Whoever that ESPN commentator in that video is, he knows more about people than Fauci does.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

WOW. What a stupid POS.

Yeah, even if you don’t personally feel the need to wear one, why pitch a fit? Just wear the damn thing for the ten minutes you’re in the store.


Also, I think there is a serious discussion about fans or no fans, but there’s no way there won’t be football. I suppose I could see a shortened season if something catastrophic happens, but even if it is without fans, schools and NFL teams will play.

 

[griffin mizell]

50 percent of the deaths come from 1.8 percent of the population that resided in senior care facilities of which 60 percent of those were in new york alone. If u wish to read about that brain dead decision go ahead. But of the 115k that have passed around 55k or so from that small population.

the other 50 percent something like 85 percent or so had pre existing conditions or were over 75; in total for fatalities the numbers towards the elderly and already very sick are staggering.

this isn’t statistically an issue for a 19 year old college ball player; who is going to generally be in top physical condition unless they may have some prior undetected serious pre-ex. In fact; numerically for those below 60 it isnt that much different than the flu and certainly not as lethal as the swine flu or sars.

this is more contagious and can be passed asymptomatic. So. What this topic is around is spreading a virus to those vulnerable from the otherwise healthy. And it appears limiting group’ gatherings is a way to aide that. Is canceling college football or other sports going to help????? No idea. Because the fact remains its going to spread regardless of that sporting event. Folks who are asymptomatic dont know they have it by vuture of having no symptoms.....therefore will behave normal and spread it. Thats the true issue here.

All clemson players not one had symptoms. What is apparent is that is more common for the youth than elderly. To have it and not show symptoms.

My personal view is if u are older or have pre-ex be really careful about your group exposure. Its easier for you to control your single self than 100s controlling themselves to you. Plaaaaayyyyy Baaaallllll. Stay home if needed and if have family friends you know are socially active or at work suggest limiting contact and wearing masks at all time. Just my view.

Its so hard to prevent spread when the youth in many times show zero. Its impossible really. Probably like all this stuff gets canceled or moved. Some not necessarily medically relevant. Even the 6 feet is not medically factual. Its more like 15. 6 even with a mask is exposure. First it was dont touch anything it can be spread by surface. Now they came out and said yeah it really cant last week. “They” dont even know enough. So the flat fear is driving alot of the decision making and its why I believe season’s likely to be impacted.....right or not

 

[griffin mizell]

you make sense,lacking here from most

 

[RamblinRed]

I expect the season to start, whether it will finish will depend upon what happens in Oct/Nov in the country.
According to reports less than 50% of the SA's at Clemson and LSU are symptomatic and none have required hospitalization to this point.

Young people will get it, in general a lower percentage of them will get sick from it, end up in the hospital,and die - though at some point it could happen. I suspect is all it will take is one death of an SA and the season will be over as I think the public outcry over a young person dying in order to entertain a largely white, slightly older (41-45 mean) audience will not go over well. Also, if there is a large outbreak in the fall i suspect that would impact it, or if large clusters of cases are tied back to games.

The bigger issue overriding it is the spreading of the disease. Recent research suggests that super-spreader events are what really gets this thing going. That roughly 80% of the cases are created by less than 20% of the infected population. That suggests the easiest way to prevent spread is to reduce super-spreader events - where one person can infect a large number of other people at one time. Fans in the stands is an example of a potential super-spreader event. That is why I think the odds of fans in the stands is decreasing some (though I still think it is more likely than not) the fact that MLB is now reconsidering a bubble season is part of what is causing me to think those odds are decreasing. The other piece is the medical director for the NFLPA urging NFL players not to engage in any group activities until training camp.

The problem to overcome is keeping the more susceptible safe. That was basically the plan of Sweden's strategy which ended up failing miserably. They tried to keep it away from seniors and they were unable to. If you were to take all the adults in the US over 60 as well as all with underlying medical conditions that make them more susceptible that is over 40% of the adult population. That's just such a large percentage of the population it is hard to design a process that makes it safe to gather in large numbers.

It is probably fair to say that college football has done less to this point to protect its athletes than any other sport. Most other sports have books on how they are going to keep their athletes safe - the NBA has a 117 page safety protocol, MLB's initial safety protocol was 67 pages and MLB and the Union are still going over it for possible changes. So far the NCAA and Conferences don't have much of anything and there has been no centralized plan for every school to follow. I think this has some potential to create problems the closer we get to kickoff if it starts to get press that it doesn't appear that colleges are taking it as seriously as professional leagues in keeping their athletes safe and is asking them to sign waivers to play. That just smells of bad future PR.

if they do allow fans it will be interesting to see how many are willing to show up in person. The outcome in OK Saturday night suggests there is still alot of trepidation over gathering in large groups and that recent polls are pretty accurate in terms of percentage of people saying they are willing to attend large scale events.

 

[herb]

Young people will get it, in general a lower percentage of them will get sick from it, end up in the hospital,and die - though at some point it could happen. I suspect is all it will take is one death of an SA and the season will be over as I think the public outcry over a young person dying in order to entertain a largely white, slightly older (41-45 mean) audience will not go over well. Also, if there is a large outbreak in the fall i suspect that would impact it, or if large clusters of cases are tied back to games.

College football knows no bounds in terms of audience. This is from Neilsen in 2016. "For this recently wrapped college season, nearly half the total viewers were female (about 77.5 million), about 28.7 million were Millennials ages 18-34 and 71.9 million were between the ages of 35 and 64 (which is nearly 60% of that demographics’ population). From an ethnicity standpoint, college football reaches about 23.5 million African-Americans and about 15 million Hispanics—that represents nearly 60% of all African-American viewers and nearly 30% of all Hispanic viewers." Source:https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insig...pped college,of that demographics' population).

 

[TooTall]

Recent research suggests

Heard this since the beginning and most of it has been over turned in time. Until the Protests/Riots, there were extremely few potential "super spreader" events and those who report the "news" are hesitant to release whether the Protests/Riots spread the virus. In time we will know better, but, even if it does turn out to be true, it's sample size is too small.

 

[chris975d]

I haven’t read most of the more recent comments in this thread (been extremely busy with work during the pandemic), but i still think that fans in the stands at college football games has a high probability of not happening, mainly due to tailgating. Even if social distancing is enacted in the stadium, and you cut capacity down 50% (say from 60,000 down to 30,000), a lot of those people are still going to gather pre and post game in large groups. Tailgating isn’t that big of a deal with our/GT games, but it’s a huge part of more active fan bases, SEC schools, Clemson, FSU, etc. Ever been near Athens or Clemson on gameday? The tailgate groups are huge, and everywhere. Social distancing inside the stadium doesn’t do much good if the people are piling up together before and after outside the stadium. One of the larger tailgates at UGA, put on by Coca Cola, has already been cancelled for the upcoming season, and Coke is reducing their presence and involvement with college athletics from what I hear through my sales reps.

 

[RamblinRed]

College football knows no bounds in terms of audience. This is from Neilsen in 2016. "For this recently wrapped college season, nearly half the total viewers were female (about 77.5 million), about 28.7 million were Millennials ages 18-34 and 71.9 million were between the ages of 35 and 64 (which is nearly 60% of that demographics’ population). From an ethnicity standpoint, college football reaches about 23.5 million African-Americans and about 15 million Hispanics—that represents nearly 60% of all African-American viewers and nearly 30% of all Hispanic viewers." Source:https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2016/spenders-in-the-grass-the-reach-of-college-football-is-formidable/#:~:text=For this recently wrapped college,of that demographics' population).

Thanks, the data I was looking at came from a 3 yr old Advertising Week study that had different numbers.

 

[Techster]

The problem to overcome is keeping the more susceptible safe. That was basically the plan of Sweden's strategy which ended up failing miserably. They tried to keep it away from seniors and they were unable to. If you were to take all the adults in the US over 60 as well as all with underlying medical conditions that make them more susceptible that is over 40% of the adult population. That's just such a large percentage of the population it is hard to design a process that makes it safe to gather in large numbers.

Something no one really talks about when it comes to Sweden: Their population is "only" around 10 million. That's about the size of a more dense New York City (8.4+ million).

Sweden has a total land mass of 173,000+ sq miles. Their population density 64/sq mile.

New York has a total land mass of 302+ sq miles. (Look at that number again.) NYC population density is 27,000+/sq mile.

As horrible as Sweden is doing with their strategy, now apply their strategy to the United states with population of 300+ million, most of which are clustered in large population dense cities.

Which brings me to this: As @chris975d points out, on game days, every college campus becomes a small dense city unto themselves. Bars and restaurants get packed, campuses gets packed, and stadiums are packed. Whatever the stadium holds, you can probably double or triple that with all the people come to college towns.

Even though schools will probably limit stadium capacity, how do you limit fans from coming and tailgating and packing bars? How do you limit fans from coming from other schools and partying?

It's easy to say they can control capacity in the stadium, but how do you control capacity of restaurant and bars around the campus? How do you control college kids throwing parties and tailgaters congregating together?

The more you think about sports this Fall, especially in a college environment without the systematic rules that pro leagues are making their teams follow, the it's hard to fathom college sports being played unless colleges and administrators are willingly ignoring the fallout that could occur.

 

[Techster]

Our line is trending the wrong way:

 

[Techster]

In many ways, it is a 100-yard dash toward a pile of cash, all while hoping no one gets hurt. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases have spiked in 29 states with football hotbeds of Florida and Texas considered new hotspots for the virus.

"The healthiest teams are going to be the ones that are going to be there at the end, have the chance to win the most games and play for the biggest prizes," Donati said.

Place your bets! Kansas is totally winning the national championship this year!

 

[WreckinGT]

Did any of these idiots even consider that as you test more people the number of positives will rise? Did they even bother to mention that the death rate continues to drop? Do the silly bastards want to shut this country down with millions of people out of work over a damn virus?

Florida’s positive test rate has gone from 3% to 12%. The positive test rate in Texas has doubled. The positive test rate in Arizona has gone from 5% to over 20%. It’s not just more tests.

 

[WreckinGT]

Florida tested about 320k people that either live or work in Nursing homes in the last month or so. The numbers are not in but it’s possible there were another 140k tests administered the last 2 weeks. You test higher numbers of people in the high risk pool & you get a higher percentage of positive and a higher number of positives. It’s not rocket scientist gene splicing. The devil’s in the details, not in the headlines.

I could have sworn others were saying that it’s mostly young people testing positive. If it is truly vulnerable people who are accounting for the rise then you guys have some really ugly numbers coming soon.

 

[jacket_fan]

My head explodes with how political all this has become...

 

[augustabuzz]

Florida’s positive test rate has gone from 3% to 12%. The positive test rate in Texas has doubled. The positive test rate in Arizona has gone from 5% to over 20%. It’s not just more tests.

True, what is not being considered is how many are testing positive who had the disease in February to May who were asymptomatic.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

My head explodes with how political all this has become...

Sign of the times. It may get worse before it gets better and both college and NFL football are going to be hurt financially.

 

[RamblinRed]

The increase in cases is due primarily to increase in spread, not increase in testing. On a national level the positive case % has increased from 4.4% to 4.9% in a week,
In some of the states in the South and Southwest the positive case rate has increased 200-300% in the last 7-10 days.
If the increase in cases were due to increase in testing then the positive case % would be flat or decreasing.

in the Southwest (TX, OK, NM, AZ, UT) cases, positive case %, hospitalizations and deaths are all increasing over the last week.
In the Southeast cases, positive case % and hospitalizations have increased, deaths have not yet - they are flat.
On a national level cases have increased, positive case rate has increased, hospitalizations have bottomed out and deaths continue to go down slowly.


in other sporting news today.
Union voted down the MLB proposal. Expectation is the Commissioner will set a schedule tonight.

This is an interesting read from CBSSports of NBA's bubble in Orlando. Has alot of comments from an epidemiologist about how he thinks the NBA has largely done everything right and they may still get screwed by the virus
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...could-ruin-the-nbas-disney-world-bubble-plan/
It's not mentioned in this article but as of yesterday the ICU availability in Orange County, FL was 26%. So not a critical level yet but pretty high usage.