The ACC will delay the start of competition for all fall sports until at least Sept. 1

[Deleted member 2897]

We have a vaccine.

Less than half of Americans get the flu vaccine each year, and they never know until it’s too late if the vaccine is a good fit for that years particular strains. Sometimes it is a great match, sometimes not.

 

[smokey_wasp]

Kudos to BC doing it right

 

[herb]

We have a vaccine.

Thank you for the answer. But if it is not just limited to H1N1, instead it appears to be associated with many flus, including influenza B, https://westjem.com/case-report/fatal-influenza-b-myocarditis-in-a-34-year-old-female.html , H3N2 , https://www.heighpubs.org/jccm/jccm-aid1039.php and even the common cold, https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/myocarditis/symptoms-causes/syc-20352539. Flu runs through teams every year. Are the risks of myocarditis from Covid greater than those of the other flus?

 

[RonJohn]

So, this is a question. I am not trying to be argumentative, just wanting to understand. According to this https://www.hindawi.com/journals/irt/2012/351979/ (I have no idea what it is, but it looks official and there were similar reports from Mayo Clinic) " Acute myocarditis is a well-known complication of influenza infection." This was from 2012. Yet there has never been anything mentioned anywhere about needing to shut down football because of the flu until now. Is the myocarditis caused by Covid somehow more insidious than that caused by H1N1? If not, why wasn't football stopped before?

From the article you posted:

Myocarditis was a common and sometimes fatal complication of influenza infection in the pandemics of the previous century [1–7]. Small autopsy-based studies on fatal cases revealed a complication rate of focal to diffuse myocarditis of 39.4% during the 1957 Asian influenza pandemic and 48% during the Spanish influenza pandemic [4–6]. All of these fatal cases with myocarditis also had severe pneumonia and multiple organ involvement. Thus, myocarditis is likely to be a terminal complication of pandemic influenza infection.

On the other hand, while many people are affected by seasonal influenza every year, complications in nonrespiratory tissues (e.g., encephalopathy, myocarditis, and myopathy) occur only occasionally

It says that the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu had high rates. It says that is is only occasional in seasonal flu.

I'm not a doctor, and I haven't been reading autopsy reports. I don't know what the rate of myocarditis is in COVID-19. If doctors are saying that it is troubling, I have to respect that. If 10 Big 10 football players have it, then I have to think that is a high number of players compared to the number of Big 10 football players who have tested positive.

It might end up not being a big issue. However, just stating that myocarditis has been a known health problem for a long time doesn't mean that it isn't an issue with COVID-19. Just saying that myocarditis isn't an issue with seasonal flu doesn't mean that it isn't an issue with COVID-19 as the article you posted stated that it was a big issue with both the Asian Flue and the Spanish flu. Both of those were novel viruses. Season flu isn't pretty much by definition.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Reminds me of the teams that avoided Notre Dame and Clemson.

Reminds me of when ACC teams used to get 3 Bye Weeks against us in 1 season.

At this point with all the risk of not playing, I think you thank your lucky stars to have any schedule. Hell, if the only teams we got to play were breakaway teams that were like Michigan, Ohio state, Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Auburn - I’d rather lose every game but at least get to play.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

There are better articles out there describing that they are not shutting down but they really don't know what to do right now. Here is one:

As the Power Five splits on playing, will the College Football Playoff crown a national champion?

There are plenty of outstanding questions as to how a champion may or may not be decided in 2020

www.cbssports.com

If they do go through with the current plan, it will be rather strange to watch a Rose Bowl game between two SEC teams playing for the second or third time of the season in front of an empty stadium, with no Rose Bowl parade.

One would think they would just relocate that game to a stadium in the SE. I can't imagine either team or the people of Pasadena objecting. And TV revenue would probably be the same.

 

[YJMD]

So, this is a question. I am not trying to be argumentative, just wanting to understand. According to this https://www.hindawi.com/journals/irt/2012/351979/ (I have no idea what it is, but it looks official and there were similar reports from Mayo Clinic) " Acute myocarditis is a well-known complication of influenza infection." This was from 2012. Yet there has never been anything mentioned anywhere about needing to shut down football because of the flu until now. Is the myocarditis caused by Covid somehow more insidious than that caused by H1N1? If not, why wasn't football stopped before?

There is a lot more unknown about COVID and its cardiac implications than there is for influenza, but there is some alarming data overall about the incidence of myocardial inflammation in people affected by COVID. I don't know how that stratifies by age to apply to athletes nor how significant the clinical risk of myocardial involvement is in comparison to myocarditis with influenza. But yeah it is likely a lot more relevant for COVID than for influenza.

Beyond that, COVID is a lot more infectious and without a vaccine or levels of innate immunity from related infections. From a public health standpoint, behavioral interventions to prevent COVID infection are a lot more meaningful. So even if the risks of each infection were comparable, it makes sense to consider cancellation of athletics differently for COVID than influenza.

Pandemic influenza could become another significant global health crisis akin to COVID in the future under the right circumstances.

 

[herb]

Thanks to all for the responses, just trying to figure this out

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

nm, sorry


Huh? LOL. That’s exactly what it says. It says over 500 of the cases were supposed to be reported the day before but there was a delay. It doesn’t skew the trend line because the numbers swap between two days - the total number between those 2 days stays the same. But it does change the peak to July 10th. Which was the point of contention anyway - we peaked July 10th and have been trending down for 5 weeks.

No. It never said wildly inaccurate. Hyperbole on your part. And if you shifted 526 cases from July 18th to the 17th, as the article stated they were tests "from the previous day" then the new peak would be July 17th, not July 10th.

Either way, as recently as 30JUL20 there were papers here in our own state calling SC a hot spot. Sadly, the real numbers are going to end up much higher. Allendale county is awash with it but the county is so poor there has been almost no testing done there. Your linked article shows 8 confirmed cases there but I know for a fact that there have been way more than 8 cases from there. They just aren't being tested.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

No. It never said wildly inaccurate. Hyperbole on your part. And if you shifted 526 cases from July 18th to the 17th, as the article stated they were tests "from the previous day" then the new peak would be July 17th, not July 10th.

Either way, as recently as 30JUL20 there were papers here in our own state calling SC a hot spot. Sadly, the real numbers are going to end up much higher. Allendale county is awash with it but the county is so poor there has been almost no testing done there. Your linked article shows 8 confirmed cases there but I know for a fact that there have been way more than 8 cases from there. They just aren't being tested.

That is not correct. July 10th was over 2,200 cases. Add 500+ to July 17th and you get 2,000 that day. We peaked on July 10th (or a little earlier if you use smoothed data) - 5 weeks ago. IIWII.

The conversation wasn’t what our numbers were 6 months ago or what they might be 6 months from now. You may be right that we go way back up again. But we were discussing right now. Right now we have very good numbers. They’ve been trending down for 5 straight weeks and we are better than than the national average.

Numbers were just released for today and we’re down 20% week over week again.

 

[Milwaukee]

 

[takethepoints]

Kudos to BC doing it right

Kudos to Massachusetts doing it right.

FIFY.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Kudos to Massachusetts doing it right.

FIFY.

Most schools are actually pretty decent:


Duke is around 400 tests with 25 positives (nearly everyone has been since cleared). etc.

I was just googling different schools, and most are publishing their numbers fairly often without personal information.

Isn't Georgia Tech into the hundreds of tests now and we've only had a handful of positives? As of a few days ago I think we were closing in on 300 tests with 10 positives (across all sports - I think football was just a few)?

 

[takethepoints]

There is a lot more unknown about COVID and its cardiac implications than there is for influenza, but there is some alarming data overall about the incidence of myocardial inflammation in people affected by COVID. I don't know how that stratifies by age to apply to athletes nor how significant the clinical risk of myocardial involvement is in comparison to myocarditis with influenza. But yeah it is likely a lot more relevant for COVID than for influenza.

Beyond that, COVID is a lot more infectious and without a vaccine or levels of innate immunity from related infections. From a public health standpoint, behavioral interventions to prevent COVID infection are a lot more meaningful. So even if the risks of each infection were comparable, it makes sense to consider cancellation of athletics differently for COVID than influenza.

Pandemic influenza could become another significant global health crisis akin to COVID in the future under the right circumstances.

There's one study on this I know of:

Outcomes of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Patients Recently Recovered From COVID-19

This cohort study evaluates the presence of myocardial injury in unselected patients recently recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

jamanetwork.com

Descriptions of the study is often prefaced by "a small sample". This is misleading. First, the study is carefully controlled, with comparisons to age-matched and "risk factor-matched" groups that validated the main results. Second, the effects observed were substantial. A larger sample would almost certainly show similar results.

No doubt the same team is at work on a bigger study to take care of the results for different age/ethnic groups. That's what I'd do and that will take a bigger sample. The effects of this disease are still largely unknown, however; no need to take undue risks.

 

[WreckinGT]

Wow. Such an edgy hot take.

 

[RamblinRed]

Estimated flu vs confirmed covid....this graph, while from the CDC should be taken with a grain of salt. It is impossible to compare 2 different things with different guidelines. Just like comparing greatest athletes from different generations and eras, can't do it, although we do try.

That is incorrect. Well its technically correct, but we aren’t comparing 40-year olds to college aged people. At younger ages the hospitalization and death rates are lower for COVID than they are for the flu.
[/QUOTE]

I literally showed you a chart where the death rate by age from COVID is higher than the death rate from flu at every age level - and it used the most restrictive definition for COVID deaths and the least restrictive definition for flu deaths. The 2 methods used are more favorable towards flu counts and it still comes out lower by a longshot.

Back to talking about football though, since i'm still hoping things improve enough that we can have it.

Battle of Football Island: 6 FBS Conferences Stand Their Ground to Play the 2020 Season

Six FBS conferences still are trying to play the 2020 season, even after Mark Emmert called off all NCAA fall sports championships amid the coronavirus pandemic

www.si.com

 

[awbuzz]

This replaces the paper bag?

... In addition too...

 

[awbuzz]

She appears to be grinding an axe.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That is incorrect. Well its technically correct, but we aren’t comparing 40-year olds to college aged people. At younger ages the hospitalization and death rates are lower for COVID than they are for the flu.

I literally showed you a chart where the death rate by age from COVID is higher than the death rate from flu at every age level - and it used the most restrictive definition for COVID deaths and the least restrictive definition for flu deaths. The 2 methods used are more favorable towards flu counts and it still comes out lower by a longshot.

Back to talking about football though, since i'm still hoping things improve enough that we can have it.

Battle of Football Island: 6 FBS Conferences Stand Their Ground to Play the 2020 Season

Six FBS conferences still are trying to play the 2020 season, even after Mark Emmert called off all NCAA fall sports championships amid the coronavirus pandemic

www.si.com

[/QUOTE]

Not true according to the CDC. You might be arguing with someone else though, because what was just attributed to me was said by someone else. Not sure why it says I said that - it was someone else. If you scroll back up to the original comments you’ll see it wasn’t me. Weird.

 

[RamblinRed]

Too really good articles from SI
The first one is on the different medical advisory committees and how they can have largely the same information but make different decisions (it is largely due to 2 factors - timelines and risk-tolerance)

'It's a F------ Mess': How and Why Football Conferences Are Arriving at Opposing Medical Conclusions

How is it that the Big Ten and Pac-12 deemed it too unsafe to play this fall based on medical experts, but the SEC and Co. are pressing on?

www.si.com

“I can’t tell people, ‘You are doing the wrong thing.’ What I can tell people is, ‘You’re doing a risky thing.’”

If the SEC kicked off the season this weekend, Catherine O’Neal doesn’t know if she’d approve such an endeavor. And that’s O.K., because the SEC does not play a game this weekend. Nor does it play a game next week or even in a month. That’s why the SEC, unlike its western and midwestern brethren, hasn’t shut down athletics. Using a patient and phased approach, the league isn’t skipping steps. Voluntary summer workouts turned into required workouts which became enhanced training and, next week, will arrive at full-contact practice.

The league’s medical panel cleared teams for each one of the steps. It has not yet cleared the conference to play a season.

“I can’t speak for the other medical task forces, but from our perspective, our questions have been very cautious about what is happening today and what’s happening the next couple of weeks,” says O’Neal, an infectious disease physician in Baton Rouge and the leading voice on the league’s medical panel. “We haven’t dared to address what’s happening in a month or two months. We say that every time we meet: ‘Things are going to change so rapidly. Let’s proceed cautiously and re-evaluate.’


The second one is how miserable it is for everyone involved in college athletics on every side

Everyone in College Sports Is Miserable Right Now

From the college ADs to the coaches to the players, the last few weeks have been mentally exhausting.

www.si.com

As i've said in the past few weeks I still like how the SEC has approached this. They have gone very slowly and cautiously and bought themselves as much time as possible. It may work out, it may not, but they are giving themselves the best chance. The only downside to their approach is that if you eventually get to a stop sign in mid-to-late September the disappointment is going to be even worse since you got so close.