Tech's Likelihood of Winning

[roadkill]

That depends on what your goal is. If you want to be bowl eligible and go to a low level bowl, then a week non-conference schedule helps. If you want a shot at the playoffs, you need more.

To complicate that more, the OOC schedules are set years in advance. 2024 and 2025 are already set. 2026 only has space for what is normally an FCS game. There is a series with Alabama that is set for 2030-31. In 2030, GT could be coming off of four years of 10 plus wins and looking for an opportunity to be in the playoffs. If we cancel the Alabama games and have one regular season loss to Clemson, beating Alabama could have been enough to push us into the playoffs. Also, it is possible that in 2030 post-Saban Alabama will be considered a weak opponent.

I think they should try to schedule teams that give GT the biggest chance to be on the big stage, and that are interesting to the fans to build and maintain the fan base. It is all about "who do we want to be?". Is that a big fish, or a medium sized fish in a very small pond?

It's not a static situation. If we are in the "build" phase, as I think we are now, given a choice I'd want to maximize our chance of winning the OOC games, going to bowls, and having a good enough record to have a shot at getting ranked. The most loyal fans will complain about the cupcakes, and sit through the beatdowns by vastly superior teams, but most will continue to buy tickets. This isn't who we are trying to attract. In a hypothetical scenario with an easier schedule this season where we go 7-6 and bowling, then 9-4 and ranked next year, excitement will build even if some of those wins were easy. On the other hand, if we lost two of those games each year because we scheduled tougher teams, we would miss the bowl the first year and in the second I could see some fans grumbling that we are "settling for mediocrity".
Unfortunately, as you stated, the schedules are already pretty locked up anyway.

 

[Root4GT]

That depends on what your goal is. If you want to be bowl eligible and go to a low level bowl, then a week non-conference schedule helps. If you want a shot at the playoffs, you need more.

To complicate that more, the OOC schedules are set years in advance. 2024 and 2025 are already set. 2026 only has space for what is normally an FCS game. There is a series with Alabama that is set for 2030-31. In 2030, GT could be coming off of four years of 10 plus wins and looking for an opportunity to be in the playoffs. If we cancel the Alabama games and have one regular season loss to Clemson, beating Alabama could have been enough to push us into the playoffs. Also, it is possible that in 2030 post-Saban Alabama will be considered a weak opponent.

I think they should try to schedule teams that give GT the biggest chance to be on the big stage, and that are interesting to the fans to build and maintain the fan base. It is all about "who do we want to be?". Is that a big fish, or a medium sized fish in a very small pond?

Lol

 

[Techfan02]

There is no way FSU is beating Clemson this year. Clemson’s sole issue was the QB position. Klubnik is for real and will shred the ACC with Riley calling the shots. It’s just wishful thinking that Clemson’s run is over. They are just reloading and Norvell is a joke of a coach so FSU is very limited from the coaching side which we have experience with.

I'll bet FSU beats clemson call it

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I agree Clemson will beat FSU this year. The rest of your post? Not so much.

Dabo has been stubborn about using the portal, which will be a setback. Clemson has been paying players for years, but with NIL they have more competition. They will stay top 25, but they may not see top 5 or the playoffs for awhile. There are schools with more money. South Carolina is one of them.

That joke of a coach went 10-3 last year. I'd like our coach to become a joke of a coach like that. And your post suggests that it's all about the HC, and the other 10 coaches and myriad of support staff are just cheerleaders or something. This isn't HS football.

In fact, Dabo is proof that you don't have to be a great football mind to be a good HC. But you need a good staff. (I could say the same about Bobby Dodd). I remember when Dabo was referred to as a clown by many posters on this board. We see how that worked out. But his recruiting advantage i$n't as great as it u$ed to be.

Norvell is a joke. They had a great year last year. Things broke their way but he is not a top tier coach. We don’t disagree that much other than I believe Clemson‘s issues were a simple fix and they fixed them and FSU got the football breaks last year so I don’t see them repeating their performance. Wake, NC State, and a mediocre Clemson beat them all because Norvell can’t game plan.

 

[BuzzStone]

Norvell is a joke. They had a great year last year. Things broke their way but he is not a top tier coach. We don’t disagree that much other than I believe Clemson‘s issues were a simple fix and they fixed them and FSU got the football breaks last year so I don’t see them repeating their performance. Wake, NC State, and a mediocre Clemson beat them all because Norvell can’t game plan.

I think you are a bit harsh on him. He actually did turn the program around unlike the Joke we had. I don't think he is a NC caliber coach, but he is not a joke. If he puts the right pieces around him FSU can be dominate quickly.

 

[scotts]

The ML on the Tech Louisville game is +260 if picking Tech. We are still at -8 for that game. The ML bet could be a good one based on what I’ve been reading on gtswarm!!

 

[4shotB]

The ML on the Tech Louisville game is +260 if picking Tech. We are still at -8 for that game. The ML bet could be a good one based on what I’ve been reading on gtswarm!!

I don't mean to rain on your parade or cast dispersions on those of us who contribute here regularly but it should be duly noted that most, if not all, posters here have day jobs. In other words, no one here depends on their football expertise or their understanding of adolescent psychology to pay their bills and feed their families. Glean from this what you will. Same advice would apply to any investing advice or stock tips you pick up along the way here.

 

[BuzzStone]

I don't mean to rain on your parade or cast dispersions on those of us who contribute here regularly but it should be duly noted that most, if not all, posters here have day jobs. In other words, no one here depends on their football expertise or their understanding of adolescent psychology to pay their bills and feed their families. Glean from this what you will. Same advice would apply to any investing advice or stock tips you pick up along the way here.

Whats the ticker for GT swarm?

 

[slugboy]

These are last year’s numbers. The first third of the columns (through DFEI RK) are opponent adjusted efficiencies. The middle third are unadjusted. The right third of the columns are strength of schedule.

.

Rk​

Team

Rec​

FBS​

FEI​

OFEI​

Rk​

DFEI​

Rk​

NDE​

Rk​

NPD​

Rk​

NAY​

Rk​

NPP​

Rk​

ELS​

Rk​

GLS​

Rk​

ALS​

Rk​

92​

Georgia Tech​

5-7​

4-7​

-.33​

-.69​

109​

.24​

40​

-.97​

115​

-1.07​

118​

-.161​

120​

-.89​

105​

1.45​

25​

3.69​

41​

7.06​

50​

24​

Louisville​

8-5​

8-5​

.46​

.10​

57​

.75​

14​

.57​

35​

.51​

34​

.077​

35​

.74​

29​

.66​

64​

3.29​

48​

7.81​

31​

22​

Ole Miss​

8-5​

7-5​

.49​

1.08​

13​

.09​

52​

.52​

36​

.51​

35​

.072​

37​

.75​

28​

1.33​

29​

4.10​

27​

8.07​

19​

31​

Wake Forest​

8-5​

7-5​

.35​

1.05​

15​

-.15​

69​

.64​

31​

.56​

33​

.071​

39​

.55​

35​

.63​

69​

2.97​

56​

7.17​

47​

90​

Miami​

5-7​

4-7​

-.32​

-.48​

91​

-.06​

63​

-.55​

92​

-.63​

98​

-.045​

80​

-1.07​

111​

.54​

74​

2.26​

67​

5.59​

72​

102​

Boston College​

3-9​

2-9​

-.46​

-.74​

116​

-.20​

74​

-1.18​

119​

-1.27​

121​

-.153​

119​

-1.15​

115​

.73​

58​

3.11​

55​

6.74​

58​

61​

North Carolina​

9-5​

8-5​

.10​

.94​

17​

-.77​

116​

.00​

64​

.10​

57​

.011​

56​

-.17​

69​

.59​

72​

2.83​

60​

7.11​

49​

95​

Virginia​

3-7​

2-7​

-.33​

-.69​

108​

.24​

41​

-.56​

93​

-.61​

97​

-.062​

88​

-.24​

76​

.33​

88​

1.89​

75​

4.96​

76​

18​

Clemson​

11-3​

10-3​

.57​

.25​

49​

.84​

8​

.83​

23​

.92​

19​

.109​

23​

.69​

32​

1.18​

32​

3.77​

40​

7.72​

33​

49​

Syracuse​

7-6​

6-6​

.17​

.28​

48​

.11​

49​

.01​

62​

.01​

64​

-.030​

74​

.49​

37​

.85​

51​

3.58​

44​

7.59​

36​

1​

Georgia​

15-0​

14-0​

1.58​

1.86​

1​

1.45​

1​

2.38​

1​

2.43​

1​

.292​

1​

2.43​

1​

2.26​

6​

5.96​

2​

10.22​

1​

 

[slugboy]

These are last year’s numbers. The first third of the columns (through DFEI RK) are opponent adjusted efficiencies. The middle third are unadjusted. The right third of the columns are strength of schedule.

.

Rk​	Team	Rec​	FBS​	FEI​		OFEI​	Rk​	DFEI​	Rk​
92​	Georgia Tech​	5-7​	4-7​	-.33​		-.69​	109​	.24​	40​
24​	Louisville​	8-5​	8-5​	.46​		.10​	57​	.75​	14​
22​	Ole Miss​	8-5​	7-5​	.49​		1.08​	13​	.09​	52​
31​	Wake Forest​	8-5​	7-5​	.35​		1.05​	15​	-.15​	69​
90​	Miami​	5-7​	4-7​	-.32​		-.48​	91​	-.06​	63​
102​	Boston College​	3-9​	2-9​	-.46​		-.74​	116​	-.20​	74​
61​	North Carolina​	9-5​	8-5​	.10​		.94​	17​	-.77​	116​
95​	Virginia​	3-7​	2-7​	-.33​		-.69​	108​	.24​	41​
18​	Clemson​	11-3​	10-3​	.57​		.25​	49​	.84​	8​
49​	Syracuse​	7-6​	6-6​	.17​		.28​	48​	.11​	49​
1​	Georgia​	15-0​	14-0​	1.58​		1.86​	1​	1.45​	1​

(I had to do some deleting to fit the text into one post)

Bowling Green and South Carolina State aren’t on the list. The schedule begins Louisville->SC State->Ole Miss->Wake Forest->Bowling Green->Miami->BC->UNC->UVA->Clemson->Syracuse->UGA. SC State and Bowling Green should be wins, and should be needed breathers in the early part of the schedule.

The eye test is what’s really important, but it matches up pretty well with the stats.

For us, we shouldn’t be the #92 team next year. On offense, our QB numbers and our WR numbers should get a lot better. Offense and Special Teams were a disaster. We have a great special teams coach who has brought each of his units towards the top. If he takes us from somewhere around #124 to top 40, we’ll be much better just based on special teams improvement.

On offense, one of my big questions is how we block—do we have wide splits and move to more of an air-raid Dana Holgorsen blocking scheme? Key is a “big people beat up little people” believer, so possibly not. I’m sure we’ll improve in other areas—I expect our receiving to get a lot better, and I expect our run game to improve. We really need to improve on short yardage—we’re horrible there.

Louisville should get better on offense. I’m hoping they decline on defense. That’s not a great matchup for us—if their defense is still solid, we’ll need to play a fantastic game on offense to be in the game. If we hold their score down, it’ll mean we have a great defense.

At Ole Miss, I expect their offense to continue to be great. We need to find a way to reliably score against them. We need turnovers and we need to score.

Wake is interesting. If our offense is decent, we should be able to trade scores with them. We might match up pretty well.

Miami’s offense was a shambles last year. Their defense pushed us around, and that was the difference in the game. This could be a good matchup. Cristobal is revamping that team—if he has, then they could be one of the better teams in the ACC—but if their offense is still inconsistent, we have a shot.

If BC and UNC are as bad on defense as in past seasons, we have a good shot at both games. We should be better than BC and UVA.

If UVA continues to be bad on offense, then we can get one of those rare wins in Charlottesville.

Syracuse isn’t very good, but they’re not terrible anywhere. That’s going to need a good coaching job.

Looking down the list, if our defense is as good as last year, and we get special teams above average (likely) and offense above average (likely), we’re bowling. Those are big “ifs”, but we have the right coaching staff for it.

This team has a very good shot at a 6-6 season if Key plays his cards right

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Looking down the list, if our defense is as good as last year, and we get special teams above average (likely) and offense above average (likely), we’re bowling. Those are big “ifs”, but we have the right coaching staff for it.

Oddly enough, with all our struggles offensively and on ST last year, I think both of those areas will be vastly improved. It's the loss of our playmakers on D that has me worried this year.

 

[RonJohn]

Oddly enough, with all our struggles offensively and on ST last year, I think both of those areas will be vastly improved. It's the loss of our playmakers on D that has me worried this year.

I am not as concerned about the loss of playmakers on defense. It might be an issue, but I am just waiting to see the entire team in action. From a purely subjective standpoint, it seemed to me last year that the team was playing not to lose until the coaching change. Then the team seemed to begin to play to win. I understand that is simply a "feeling" instead of an actual statistical point. However, even the OL that some thought didn't have players good enough to be in FBS basically manhandled one of the best DL in the country on the first drive in the last game. I think, or at least have hope, that guys are going to be making plays this year because the coaching staff is actually coaching them up now. On the D, i think that there are going to be guys who see their opportunity to step up and take over. I don't think there will be a DL player that playes exactly like White, but I think there will be players that will step up and take over playmaking in their own ways.

 

[Root4GT]

Oddly enough, with all our struggles offensively and on ST last year, I think both of those areas will be vastly improved. It's the loss of our playmakers on D that has me worried this year.

We can't be worse on ST as we were at the bottom of FBS last year. Getting above average from worst is a very big step. I think we might get to a bit below average on ST which is still a huge jump.

Losing White on defense is a big loss. He occupied several defenders on most plays and was still very disruptive. We don't have anyone with that ability level currently on our defense. We need a guy to step up and be such a force. I just don't see one on the roster. Hope I am wrong.

6-6 is a reasonable goal.

 

[slugboy]

Oddly enough, with all our struggles offensively and on ST last year, I think both of those areas will be vastly improved. It's the loss of our playmakers on D that has me worried this year.

Reasons for pessimism on D: lost 2 starting LBs, both of whom were highly regarded (and Thomas was a beast). Lost a great EDGE in White to the NFL and a DT to the portal. Air raid teams tend to be bad on defense, and don’t practice tackling as much as they should

Reasons for optimism on D: we added a strong LB coach and brought back a strong DL coach. We have a star at Safety. We have talent at DB. We have young players and good transfers at LB. We have a year of organized practice together, and tackling makes a defense better.

I lean a bit towards optimism—we lost some really good players, but I’m looking forward to seeing what this coaching staff can do without Collins “helping”. I see room to be better on defense than last year.

Reasons for pessimism on ST: we were awful last year

Reasons for optimism on ST: coach has a solid track record

I think Special Teams will at least become average, if not better

Reasons for pessimism on O: lost our most productive receiver. Lost a really good RB. Lost a special athlete at QB. Our blocking was terrible last year. Our QB ratings were towards the bottom of the ACC last year. Our TEs have terrible numbers. Our line stats are bottom of the conference.

Reasons for optimism on O: we’re gonna air it out. We have a receivers coach who has improved receiver stats wherever they were. We have a good RB room. We have at least two promising QBs and a good QB coach. We have an OL coach at HC, and I believe he will focus on improving the line. We were filling in coaches at RB and OC last year.

We got better when Weinke called plays, even though we had a lot of injuries.

Key didn’t pull a top 25 recruiting class last year (it was a weak class, sorry), but did very well with transfers. He brought in coaches to fix each of our weak points. The one question mark I have is Geep Wade—that’s our weakest point, and he lacks P5 experience. He has experience at Ga Southern and App State, which hints at how we’ll play.

Overall, I’m optimistic about the offense. OL and TE are big questions to me, but the rest looks good.

 

[Lil G]

The one question mark I have is Geep Wade—that’s our weakest point, and he lacks P5 experience. He has experience at Ga Southern and App State, which hints at how we’ll play.

In terms of just offense numbers- his lines produce.
5,400 yards at App state last year (1,500 more than tech) and a win over Texas A&M
His year prior at Ga Southern also produced more than tech last year.

All kinds of comparison factors to consider there (we were dog**** at the start of the season), but he seems solid and I’m pretty sure we got a good deal on him.

 

[HouseDivided]

Someone on here said we win one of UGA, Clemson and I think they may be right. I always get optimistic this time of year so I try and temper it a little but I think we got a really good staff, enough good players that fit what they are trying to do. My biggest question is the same as many others on here, do we have enough big plays on defense to make the difference when we need it. The offense gets better and better as year moves along IMO and ends up being really good the last half of season.

I think we have a far better chance at beating the Dabo Cult than Ugag. Clemson doesn't have the elite talent 2 & 3 deep that the mutts do. They're basically doing what Bama did for so long and that's simply reloading without any drop-off. I was encouraged by our performance against them, in Athens with CBK, but if we're being honest & I've watched that game on replay several times.....Ugag trated that game like a scrimmage as to not get anyone hurt before the SECCG against LSU. They were very basic on offense and defense. Once they believed we were actually there to compete and not rollover like we did with Collins, they kicked it up a notch and it became 37-7 in a hurry. We did have the botched punt and fumble but they had control of that game. After the 1st drive, then the drop by our TE we never really threatened until our last minute score.

But, Kirby knows the the years of us rolling over and playing to not get embarrassed rather than compete and try to win are over. That shows the respect he has for CBK.

Clemson doesn't have that ability. We hang around with them long enough, we could beat them.

Sidenote: from my esteemed Dwag Uncle who is a big time donor/alum (love him but he is a Dwag through and through) when Kirby and CBK met at midfield after the game, Kirby praised him and showered him with respect and told him should he not be retained at Tech in any capacity, he had a spot on Ugags staff ASAP.

 

[stech81]

I think we have a far better chance at beating the Dabo Cult than Ugag. Clemson doesn't have the elite talent 2 & 3 deep that the mutts do. They're basically doing what Bama did for so long and that's simply reloading without any drop-off. I was encouraged by our performance against them, in Athens with CBK, but if we're being honest & I've watched that game on replay several times.....Ugag trated that game like a scrimmage as to not get anyone hurt before the SECCG against LSU. They were very basic on offense and defense. Once they believed we were actually there to compete and not rollover like we did with Collins, they kicked it up a notch and it became 37-7 in a hurry. We did have the botched punt and fumble but they had control of that game. After the 1st drive, then the drop by our TE we never really threatened until our last minute score.

But, Kirby knows the the years of us rolling over and playing to not get embarrassed rather than compete and try to win are over. That shows the respect he has for CBK.

Clemson doesn't have that ability. We hang around with them long enough, we could beat them.

Sidenote: from my esteemed Dwag Uncle who is a big time donor/alum (love him but he is a Dwag through and through) when Kirby and CBK met at midfield after the game, Kirby praised him and showered him with respect and told him should he not be retained at Tech in any capacity, he had a spot on Ugags staff ASAP.

I look for Bobo to make their offense take a few steps back.

 

[Sheboygan]

Reasons for pessimism on D: lost 2 starting LBs, both of whom were highly regarded (and Thomas was a beast). Lost a great EDGE in White to the NFL and a DT to the portal. Air raid teams tend to be bad on defense, and don’t practice tackling as much as they should

Reasons for optimism on D: we added a strong LB coach and brought back a strong DL coach. We have a star at Safety. We have talent at DB. We have young players and good transfers at LB. We have a year of organized practice together, and tackling makes a defense better.

I lean a bit towards optimism—we lost some really good players, but I’m looking forward to seeing what this coaching staff can do without Collins “helping”. I see room to be better on defense than last year.

Reasons for pessimism on ST: we were awful last year

Reasons for optimism on ST: coach has a solid track record

I think Special Teams will at least become average, if not better

Reasons for pessimism on O: lost our most productive receiver. Lost a really good RB. Lost a special athlete at QB. Our blocking was terrible last year. Our QB ratings were towards the bottom of the ACC last year. Our TEs have terrible numbers. Our line stats are bottom of the conference.

Reasons for optimism on O: we’re gonna air it out. We have a receivers coach who has improved receiver stats wherever they were. We have a good RB room. We have at least two promising QBs and a good QB coach. We have an OL coach at HC, and I believe he will focus on improving the line. We were filling in coaches at RB and OC last year.

We got better when Weinke called plays, even though we had a lot of injuries.

Key didn’t pull a top 25 recruiting class last year (it was a weak class, sorry), but did very well with transfers. He brought in coaches to fix each of our weak points. The one question mark I have is Geep Wade—that’s our weakest point, and he lacks P5 experience. He has experience at Ga Southern and App State, which hints at how we’ll play.

Overall, I’m optimistic about the offense. OL and TE are big questions to me, but the rest looks good.

I appreciate this summary, and I agree with all you wrote. Generally , I think our talent is improving year over year due to better scouting and evaluation of signees than previously. That combined with miles better coaching up during the week , game day prep, and in game decisions in all phases will show itself not only in how well prepared and smarter we are under Key, but also establish a noticeable trajectory of improvement. That's something TFG could never do. Instead of rats jumping off a sinking ship , we will attract better players and coaches going forward. I am VERY optimistic.

 

[Sheboygan]

Oddly enough, with all our struggles offensively and on ST last year, I think both of those areas will be vastly improved. It's the loss of our playmakers on D that has me worried this year.

I think the playmakers that we had before CBK achieved it in spite of the coaching, not because of it. Without the disorganization and trainwreck that was TFG, players will be better prepared , having greater confidence and freedom to "make a play".

 

[MidtownJacket]

Whats the ticker for GT swarm?

CASH just write the check you wanna invest and mail it to our Mod's PO Box. We'll be happy to put that $$ to use