Tech's Likelihood of Winning

[Randy Carson]

Well, I just went through Tech's 2023 schedule on ESPN, and I was disappointed to see that we are only favored to win three games. Here are our opponents along with the percentage likelihood that Tech will win according to ESPN:

Louisville 34.2%
SC State 97.3%
Ole Miss 10.8%
Wake 24.5%
Bowling Green 86.9%
Miami 14.9%
Boston College 65.0%
UNC 25.6%
Virginia 47.4%
Syracuse 33.3%
UGA 3.9%

According to this, we are just as likely to lose to Boston College as we are to win v. Louisville or Syracuse. Looks like our season could go either way. Seriously?

I don't buy it.
It's all poo.
I don't buy it.
How 'bout you?

 

[RonJohn]

Statistics don't mean anything in a particular instance. (Or at least don't mean a hard line win/lose in any particular instance) In the lowest percentage game, it shows a 3.9% chance of winning, which means there is a chance.

Statistics without any actual data doesn't really mean anything in the aggregate. Many things can happen between now and September 2. What if Key is fired over the summer? What if Brohm is fired in the summer? What if half of Louisville's team leaves after summer camp? What if some productive players get injured? What if some players who had very little playing time last year blossom this year? It is possible to make relatively good guesses about who will be good and who won't be good, but developing accurate statistics at this point is just an exercise of folly.

I would trust Sagarin more than whatever system they have developed and modified over the years. Sagarin started as an exercise in statistics, and not a method to drive traffic to an organization. Even Sagarin admits that he uses non-statistical historical data at the beginning of a season until there is enough interactions among teams to make the data even make sense.

Overall, this data is only good for driving traffic to ESPN. At this point, it has zero relation to what will actually happen in the fall. Even after a month of football, I don't have much confidence in ESPN's "statistics".

 

[bobongo]

I don't buy it.
It's all poo.
I don't buy it.
How 'bout you?

This.

 

[Techster]

I was in Cherokee, NC last weekend for a guys trip. While at the casino, and out of curiosity, I checked the futures bets.

For GT, the over for 4.5 wins is +105, under 4.5 wins is -135.

Looking at the schedule, I personally have us between 6-8 wins. We'll see...hope springs eternal this time of year for us Jackets.

 

[roadkill]

One thing I like about our schedule is that we get to play a potentially tough but winnable game out of the gate. So we'll quickly understand a lot more about our team's potential than if we played either a vastly superior team that curb-stomps us or conversely one where we aren't really tested. I like our chances and am hopeful for the season but am reserving judgment on W/L until I see us in an actual game.

 

[slugboy]

If we’re gonna go stats—and I’m guessing the ESPN predictions came from Bill Connelly—then here is a stat

Last year, we didn’t go for it—we punted way too much before you even consider our horrendous punting game last season




If we want to win more next year, we need to go for it a lot more

 

[takethepoints]

I think this is a selection of guesses. As I've said before here, Tech doesn't have a proven QB and we don't know if the present candidates will work out, especially behind a (probably) so-so OL. If that wasn't the case, I believe the ESPN predictions would be much more favorable. I think the talent is there, but it is green as grass all over on both sides off the ball, except at RB and DB. That's why, as Road says, the Louisville game is so important. They will probably be much improved, Brohm's teams almost always are. But … they're in the same boat Tech is. If both teams come out and look like they can put a quality QB on the field then the contest should be a humdinger If that happens, btw, I wouldn't mind so much losing a tough, close game. The best way to learn how to win is to get under fire and see what happens.

I hope things work out this year.

 

[slugboy]

Athlon posted their season prediction over the weekend. They don’t give a record, but they rank us 67th, which is both a major improvement from years past yet also short of bowl contention

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/georgia-tech-football-yellow-jackets-prediction-preview-2023

CBS Sports has us near the bottom

2023 ACC win totals, odds, picks: Clemson, Florida State aim high while facing large numbers

 

[CEB]

Athlon posted their season prediction over the weekend. They don’t give a record, but they rank us 67th, which is both a major improvement from years past yet also short of bowl contention

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/georgia-tech-football-yellow-jackets-prediction-preview-2023

CBS Sports has us near the bottom

2023 ACC win totals, odds, picks: Clemson, Florida State aim high while facing large numbers

Not a glowing review by any stretch, but the worst thing said about Tech in that article the UVA season prediction.

 

[slugboy]

Not a glowing review by any stretch, but the worst thing said about Tech in that article the UVA season prediction.

He picked UVA over GT in Charlottesville. That’s a game we really need to win, but I understand why anyone who has watched the series would give UVA the edge at home.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

UVA is going to be horrible this year. I listened to Bud Elliott's Cover 3 Summer School episode on them this weekend and it is not a good outlook for them. I have pretty realistic expectations for GT this year, but I feel pretty confident that this will be a win for us no matter where the game is played. I've got us as 1 pt favorites on the road for my lookaheads.

 

[wesgt123]

Well, I just went through Tech's 2023 schedule on ESPN, and I was disappointed to see that we are only favored to win three games. Here are our opponents along with the percentage likelihood that Tech will win according to ESPN:

Louisville 34.2%
SC State 97.3%
Ole Miss 10.8%
Wake 24.5%
Bowling Green 86.9%
Miami 14.9%
Boston College 65.0%
UNC 25.6%
Virginia 47.4%
Syracuse 33.3%
UGA 3.9%

According to this, we are just as likely to lose to Boston College as we are to win v. Louisville or Syracuse. Looks like our season could go either way. Seriously?

I don't buy it.
It's all poo.
I don't buy it.
How 'bout you?

Mark it. We are gonna be the surprise of the ACC and I can't wait. Let them think we are gonna be worse than last year lmao

 

[CEB]

He picked UVA over GT in Charlottesville. That’s a game we really need to win, but I understand why anyone who has watched the series would give UVA the edge at home.

More so the company we’re keeping...
Hopefully we aren’t talking about losing games like this for very much longer

 

[RamblinRed]

I'm thinking 6-6 or 7-5 right now, but we'll see once the games start. L'ville is a great early test to see where we are. A game that should be competitive and could go either way.
Week 4 at Wake is probably the most important on the schedule. Teams have had a chance to work out a few early issues by that point so you start to get a better sense of what a team can do.

if GT comes in under the season win prediction then the honeymoon for Key is going to be quite short. It really feels like an easy over, anything less than 5 wins would be a really poor season imo.

 

[UgaBlows]

UVA is going to be horrible this year. I listened to Bud Elliott's Cover 3 Summer School episode on them this weekend and it is not a good outlook for them. I have pretty realistic expectations for GT this year, but I feel pretty confident that this will be a win for us no matter where the game is played. I've got us as 1 pt favorites on the road for my lookaheads.

There are more than a few UVA fans predicting Zero wins this season for them. Coach Key does not fear Cav-man

 

[slugboy]

Right now, sportswriters love the Brohm hire and think he’s going to have a very strong team. Bookies already have Louisville favored by 8.
Tech fans think week 2 is a tossup. Outsiders think it’s a game that Louisville is heavily favored in and should have no problem winning
I’m a Tech fan, but don’t expect anyone outside Tech to pick us for that game

 

[g0lftime]

I'm thinking 6-6 or 7-5 right now, but we'll see once the games start. L'ville is a great early test to see where we are. A game that should be competitive and could go either way.
Week 4 at Wake is probably the most important on the schedule. Teams have had a chance to work out a few early issues by that point so you start to get a better sense of what a team can do.

if GT comes in under the season win prediction then the honeymoon for Key is going to be quite short. It really feels like an easy over, anything less than 5 wins would be a really poor season imo.

I don't think we will see any 50-0 games either. I think this team has some fight in them because of Key's personality. I expect Buster and Weinke to make a difference with our QB play. Top 3 have each shown some game. Need some WR's to excel. O line experienced and decent size should help.

 

[UgaBlows]

I believe that we are going to demonstrate to The ‘Ville and the rest of the ACC that GT football is back with a vengeance on opening weekend.

 

[Southern psu fan]

I was in Cherokee, NC last weekend for a guys trip. While at the casino, and out of curiosity, I checked the futures bets.

For GT, the over for 4.5 wins is +105, under 4.5 wins is -135.

Looking at the schedule, I personally have us between 6-8 wins. We'll see...hope springs eternal this time of year for us Jackets.

I’m going with 7-9 wins. New coach with a new attitude get Ga Tech back to being very competitive playing with a chip on their shoulders. Had we kept the QB healthy I believe we would got 6 or 7 wins last year. Ga Tech fans have something to be excited about with this coaching staff because it’s going to be a good one.

 

[AUFC]

Right now, sportswriters love the Brohm hire and think he’s going to have a very strong team. Bookies already have Louisville favored by 8.
Tech fans think week 2 is a tossup. Outsiders think it’s a game that Louisville is heavily favored in and should have no problem winning
I’m a Tech fan, but don’t expect anyone outside Tech to pick us for that game

National television inside an NFL stadium and Louisville is one of the best traveling fanbases in the conference IMO. Those guys are going to be juiced for a "we're back" type game. Hopefully our guys are too. If you combine that with the talent gap between the teams, it's going to be a tough one for sure.