Tech vs. Louisville

[FredJacket]

Just thought I’d throw in here that I went to a Louisville forum and not only do a majority of them think Tech will be an easy win, some are suggesting the cards as a CFP dark horse.
Sept 1st can’t come fast enough.

God Bless 'em. They're high on that Brohm stuff. He may end up making them "something" ...but it won't be Game1 of Year1.

I'm thrilled we get them when we do.

 

[iceeater1969]

For them the qb is a tall 5th RSSr transfer w very good completion rate and very low int rate.
For us the qbs are very young.

Victory would say worlds about the gt coaching staff and our young qb.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Just thought I’d throw in here that I went to a Louisville forum and not only do a majority of them think Tech will be an easy win, some are suggesting the cards as a CFP dark horse.
Sept 1st can’t come fast enough.

These are the same fans who thought it was a good sign that teammates were fighting each other.

I think L'Ville is 60% likely to win, but not by a lot. But at 40% chance of a win and a team I expect to be proud of, that's enough.

Plus I don't know if it's me getting older or the guys are getting more articulate, but the post practice interviews show that our guys are smart and a credit to the Institute. Much better than I was (or am) on camera.

 

[AugustaSwarm]

I'm cautiously optimistic. More time under CBK is a good thing. We have some major questions to answer at the OL, WR, QB, DL, LB, and all special teams. I understand why the pundits would doubt us. But my yellow tinted glasses make me see things a bit differently.

 

[DvilleJacket]

In my opinion it's a massive game and will decide if we go bowling or not.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

In my opinion it's a massive game and will decide if we go bowling or not.

Slight qualification, in my opinion. A loss does not mean we won’t go bowling (the future will have many twists and turns) but a win (I’d bet even money) will almost guarantee a bowl season.

 

[Eli]

I honestly think we beat Louisville. We hat position group does Louisville have that is head and shoulders better than ours?

 

[roadkill]

I honestly think we beat Louisville. We hat position group does Louisville have that is head and shoulders better than ours?

For what it's worth (and it may not be much), 247 ranks us 5th in the ACC in team talent. Louisville ranks 10th. These rankings look at stars but don't take into account transfers in 2023. Perhaps some folks on this board have done a deeper dive into relative talent and experience at specific positions.

 

[slugboy]

I honestly think we beat Louisville. We hat position group does Louisville have that is head and shoulders better than ours?

They had a top 15-ish defense (15th FEI) and a really good front 6. Their defense was about as good as Clemson’s last year
They were #1 in team sacks, with 50. Pitt was #2
They were #8 in tackles for loss
They were top 20 in interceptions
They were 21st in 3rd down %

They’ve had player turnover. Still, our offense and especially offensive line need their best game in a long while.

I would compare how our offense looks against Louisville vs how they played against Clemson last season. That should show how much progress that our offensive coaches have made

 

[Eli]

They had a top 15-ish defense (15th FEI) and a really good front 6. Their defense was about as good as Clemson’s last year
They were #1 in team sacks, with 50. Pitt was #2
They were #8 in tackles for loss
They were top 20 in interceptions
They were 21st in 3rd down %

They’ve had player turnover. Still, our offense and especially offensive line need their best game in a long while.

I would compare how our offense looks against Louisville vs how they played against Clemson last season. That should show how much progress that our offensive coaches have made

They lost 40 players and return one starter on that defense even the DC left. I don’t think we can use last years stats as a barometer of a top 15 defense this year

 

[slugboy]

They lost 40 players and return one starter on that defense even the DC left. I don’t think we can use last years stats as a barometer of a top 15 defense this year

Hope you’re right

 

[AugustaSwarm]

I honestly think we beat Louisville. We hat position group does Louisville have that is head and shoulders better than ours?

Punt team.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Punt team.

 

[iceeater1969]

I honestly think we beat Louisville. We hat position group does Louisville have that is head and shoulders better than ours?

Before the game, their qb has way better experience and stats than ours.

 

[BCJacket]

Truthfully, we don't stand a chance against Louisville... They're going to be a really great team. They've recruited really well the last few seasons, their classes averaged (checks notes) 41st nationally! They were so good last year that their head coach got hired away by (checks notes) Cincinnati! They went 8-5 last year and only lost (checks notes) 40 players and the entire coaching staff. They hired Brohm away from (checks notes) Perdue where he built them up into a 36-34 powerhouse and won (checks notes) the Music City Bowl over a 7-5 Tennessee team! The defense was really good last year and they return (checks notes) one of their key starters. You're blind if you don't see that all the pieces are in place for them to compete for the ACC championship!

Obviously, that's tongue in cheek. The Cardinals do have some good pieces, they return a really good RB and Jack Plummer has been a solid QB who could break out. But, actually truthfully, they have a ton of the same question marks that Tech does. They're counting on a ton of transfers to plug holes. They have whole new QB, WR, and LB corps. First year with a new staff and trying to install systems. All the turnover, changes and rumors of fights, makes you wonder how cohesive the locker room will be. Brohm might be the right coach for UL, but he didn't do anything spectacular at Perdue. Granted, Perdue is a hard place to win and he did really well at WKU previously. All of that on top of them being a mediocre team in recent history. It's not like Brohm is taking over a really strong program...

Personally, I don't see why UL is getting a ton of benefit of doubt from the media. I do get why Tech is getting zero. But I think either one of these teams could be surprisingly good or either one could be really bad.

 

[bobongo]

Louisville favored by 8:

https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

Money line has Tech at ~ +250. I'm taking the points.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

They had a top 15-ish defense (15th FEI) and a really good front 6. Their defense was about as good as Clemson’s last year
They were #1 in team sacks, with 50. Pitt was #2
They were #8 in tackles for loss
They were top 20 in interceptions
They were 21st in 3rd down %

They’ve had player turnover. Still, our offense and especially offensive line need their best game in a long while.

I would compare how our offense looks against Louisville vs how they played against Clemson last season. That should show how much progress that our offensive coaches have made

To echo what @slugboy said, Louisville's defense was incredibly productive in 2022. Their final SP+ Defensive rating was 21st. They lead the nation in sacks and sack %, while not having a bona fide stud on the DL. Their LB's accounted for 23 sacks of their 49 sacks. They lost their best LB, DL, and CB to the draft.

Louisville's defense enters the 2023 season ranked 22nd in SP+. While they return 54% of their defensive production (national average is 61%), they did well in the transfer portal, pulling in the 12th ranked transfer class. Top to bottom the LOU defense is filled with productive 3 and 4 star players. Their DLine enters the season as the highest graded position avg per PFF, lead by Ashton Gillotte. If Stanford DL transfer Stephen Herron (5.5 sacks, 40 qb pressures in '23) flourishes in this system LOU should finish the year with another top 25 defense.

The biggest mismatch on paper is their DL vs. our OL. I'm excited to see what our new staff does schematically to neutralize this (and of course, the offseason development of our OL).

The line has not moved much from the opening LOU -7.5 / 8 up to this point. Betting limits will increase in the next week or so; once that happens you'll see some movement. I expect LOU to close -8.5 / -9, so if you're looking to bet GT you might want to wait as long as possible.

 

[GT33]

Easy money. It would be a Cardinal sin not to pad the year's betting wad with a Key early victory for GT while also being an underdog.

 

[bobongo]

Personally, I don't see why UL is getting a ton of benefit of doubt from the media. I do get why Tech is getting zero. But I think either one of these teams could be surprisingly good or either one could be really bad.

The reason Tech is getting zero benefit of the doubt is because the lazy media is still stuck in the Geoff Collins era. Fine with me, though. I think it works to our advantage. It's pretty clear to me that the Jackets proved last year after Brent took over that all they needed was some good coaching to make themselves a decent football team. Overall, I'd say the personnel this year will be at least as good as the team he had to work with last season when the team went 4-4 with a couple of 20-point upsets. The media is just slow on the uptake, in my opinion. We're about to find out...

 

[MACHETE]

The reason Tech is getting zero benefit of the doubt is because the lazy media is still stuck in the Geoff Collins era. Fine with me, though. I think it works to our advantage. It's pretty clear to me that the Jackets proved last year after Brent took over that all they needed was some good coaching to make themselves a decent football team. Overall, I'd say the personnel this year will be at least as good as the team he had to work with last season when the team went 4-4 with a couple of 20-point upsets. The media is just slow on the uptake, in my opinion. We're about to find out...

This is absolutely true about the media. Even the GT beat writers have lazy takes. If you are a diehard fan who pays attention, you can tell right away when listening to an ACC or GT media podcast or YouTube channel, that most "experts" have very little knowledge of GT.

I actually think we will have very good offensive production this year and that our WRs and QBs will be above average. The OL will no doubt be better. The biggest question for me is LB.

That said, I have not done a deep dive on Louisville so I have no idea what to expect. I do think this will be one of the most important opening games for Tech in quite some time as it will set the tone for the season.