Tech @ UNC (Oct. 12th) - Noon Kickoff

[Bogey]

I don't know what they fed to van den Berg last week but I hope he is getting double portions this week, as well as the rest of the defense.

 

[GT_B]

Some thoughts on this game:
-first, we have to win this game. I couldn’t stand seeing his smirky dumb face if we lose.
-with that said, UNC is not a good team, but they are not terrible.
-I watched the condensed game with Pitt and Hampton gashed them a bunch up the middle on runs. Hampton is still a very good running back. He’s a big guy and has good balance and vision. He’s not overly fast, but he’s hard to bring down. Even though I’ve been really pleased with our run D this year, our LBs worry me and I pray that they have a good game this week.
-UNc defense is the same D we had, players being tentative to come make tackles, WRs running wide open at times and you’re wondering where are the DBs, a lot of disfunction all over the place.
- i think we need to plan to take advantage of them planning to blitz us a lot, I feel like tiny Geoffrey is going to try and throw blitzes all game trying to make something happen. I would be looking at quick slants/RBs screens in the game plan to burn them.
-our old friend Nate mccoullum had a good game against Pitt and I assume he will want to do the same against us
-I hope we score 50+ and it will be highly enjoyable watching social media and interviews after the game.

 

[awbuzz]

This week always pains me because UNC is my 2nd fav team because of my mom and her family. That said, I still hope we hang 150 on Geoff.

FIFY....
I think you meant to type 150...

 

[Lil G]

Can we start a prediction thread yet? I’m ready to submit my “GT by 14+“ vote.

I watched the UNC Pitt game and their secondary looks blindfolded and high on several plays.

Emotional Geoff calls will be made and I think we hang 500+ yards on them just like Pitt and JMU.

 

[4shotB]

FIFY....
I think you meant to type 150...

-I hope we score 50+ and it will be highly enjoyable watching social media and interviews after the game.

When we play, 99.99% of the time against P5 opponents, I am content with a win and care little or nothing about scores, margin of victory, style points, etc. This game is one of the other .01%. Remember the 70 - 50 game we won against them 10-12 years ago? I would take another just like it please dear Santa and I swear I will stop asking about the pony like I have over the last 6 decades+.

 

[WreckinGT]

We should win this game and cover a 6 point spread easily. They aren't good.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

I might get a warning for saying this but TFG is a borderline psychopath. He now has a special hatred for Tech, believing that he was unfairly treated and that they are the source of all his troubles. He has gone from “Tech is my dream job” to wishing all manner of misfortune on this program.

My concern is how his persecution feelings get translated to his new team. Do they play lights out to avenge their coach, take cheap shots at our star players, or what? Hopefully they just play undisciplined like their coach. But the secondary storyline of hurt feelings, malice and revenge concerns me a little because it is an unknown wildcard.

Today he said that he and Key were friends for a long time…the dude is crazy.

 

[Tech Lawyer]

I might get a warning for saying this but TFG is a borderline psychopath. He now has a special hatred for Tech, believing that he was unfairly treated and that they are the source of all his troubles. He has gone from “Tech is my dream job” to wishing all manner of misfortune on this program.

My concern is how his persecution feelings get translated to his new team. Do they play lights out to avenge their coach, take cheap shots at our star players, or what? Hopefully they just play undisciplined like their coach. But the secondary storyline of hurt feelings, malice and revenge concerns me a little because it is an unknown wildcard.

Coach Collins, AKA " The Minister of Mayham" was criticized by some in the Carolina media for getting too conservative after giving up 70 points to JMU. So, I expect he will be throwing in everything but the kitchen sink against us in the form of blitzes and stunts. So, Buster should be ready with plays that defeat blitzes like the 65 yard drag route Duke scored on us Saturday night.

 

[billga99]

One I specifically remember is him retweeting another person’s tweet stating the GT student sec was one of the worst in all of college football.

Interesting the turnaround on that since Key has gone out of his way to make the students feel wanted and valuable. They showed up in force Saturday night.

 

[cpf2001]

I bet in his head every win under Key would’ve happened under him too - and then probably we’ve won some more too!! - and he was just unfairly denied the time he needed.

 

[Towaliga]

He probably has a grudge against GT students, especially fraternities, after they posted signs like this for homecoming in 2021.

 

[TooTall]

 

[MonroeJacket]

Game on paper preview:

GT OFFENSE VS UNC DEFENSE

Great offense (our at least very good) against below average defense. UNC isn't very good against the run or the pass.

	GT		UNC
#7	0.37	EPA/Pass	-0.06	#65
#42	0.09	EPA/Rush	-0.02	#66
#19	61.5%	Available Yards %	38.6%	#47
#67	Own 28	Starting Field Position	Own 29	#91
#15	0.21	Early Downs EPA/Play	-0.03	#74
#48	48.4%	3rd/4th Down Success	35.1%	#26
#23	6.15	Avg 3rd Down Distance	7.77	#34

GT Defense vs UNC Offense​

Terrible defense vs terrible offense. UNC doesn't pass well. It's weaknesses against weaknesses and strength against strength.

	GT		UNC
#128	0.29	EPA/Pass	-0.08	#101
#14	-0.21	EPA/Rush	0.19	#18
#78	44.2%	Available Yards %	46.2%	#78
#5	Own 24	Starting FP	Own 27	#99
#75	-0.01	Early Downs EPA/Play	0.07	#50
#53	38.1%	3rd Down Success	38.2%	#97
#22	7.92	Avg 3rd Down Distance	6.84	#59

The Duke game was a bad matchup because their defense was so good. For UNC, our offense should be OK and our defense is set up to counter their strong run game.

UNC should want to attack our pass defense. Will it work?

Over at ESPN, Bill Connelly has UNC over Tech 30-29. FPI likes GT 57% of the time, so close.

CFB Graphs/CFB Insiders/Parker Flemming game prediction--GT by about 1 point:

College Football Insiders

www.collegefootballinsiders.com

RROE is "Rush Rate over Expected", and we run the ball more often that the average team.



View attachment 16954

Curious what these models said about our games with Duke, GA St, FSU? I’m glad games are determined on the field. I just feel like a lot of this stuff is bogus. I’m sure some of it’s not.

And I’m already tired of hearing “what do the analytics say?” during a broadcast. I feel like that started becoming a talking point last year, and now it’s like I hear it every other play.

 

[Ramble1885]

Interesting the turnaround on that since Key has gone out of his way to make the students feel wanted and valuable. They showed up in force Saturday night.

The south end was actually FULL. The students really impacted the game, it was great.

 

[iceeater1969]

James madison put 600 plus and Duke put 400 on TFP s UNC defense.
Gt put 400 yds on Duke and Louisville.
Its time to turn the yellow jackets loose.

 

[crayfish895]

Interesting the turnaround on that since Key has gone out of his way to make the students feel wanted and valuable. They showed up in force Saturday night.

There was a really awesome moment where Key came over to the north student section about 20 min before the game. Gave us all intructions to be loud when Duke was on offense and punting. We did our best (with a few dissenters still being kinda obnoxious when we had the ball). It's really wonderful the way Key has been able to capture the support of students compared to where we were at the start of my freshman year in '22.

 

[Ramble1885]

There was a really awesome moment where Key came over to the north student section about 20 min before the game. Gave us all intructions to be loud when Duke was on offense and punting. We did our best (with a few dissenters still being kinda obnoxious when we had the ball). It's really wonderful the way Key has been able to capture the support of students compared to where we were at the start of my freshman year in '22.

I saw that. Made me smile. Couldn't quite hear what he was saying as I sit in the east stands but he was firing y'all up.

 

[jojatk]

I think Brent probably wants to beat UNC enough just because they are the next team on the schedule and we really need the win. He’s likely gotten past Collins more so than some of the fans have. And I really don’t mean that as a criticism of folks still bitter about Collins. I am mostly past him in large part because of what the team has done since he was unceremoniously kicked the curb. But I’d be lying if I said I didn’t want our offense to hang 50+ on UNC and that some of that was due to Collins.

 

[slugboy]

Curious what these models said about our games with Duke, GA St, FSU? I’m glad games are determined on the field. I just feel like a lot of this stuff is bogus. I’m sure some of it’s not.

And I’m already tired of hearing “what do the analytics say?” during a broadcast. I feel like that started becoming a talking point last year, and now it’s like I hear it every other play.

Sometimes they say something useful. For example, it's not just perception that we run the ball more often than other teams would--we really do.

Most of the models favored us over Duke, but a few didn't. I don't think any did over FSU, and that was from last year's data. They implied the (Duke) game would be competitive, and I think it was.

Against Duke, I didn't look too much at global stats, and instead looked at our run offense against their run defense, our pass offense against their pass defense, and vice versa. If you looked at the stats, you'd think we should attack with a balanced offense--instead, we got 245 yards and 1 TD on the ground (thanks Pyron), and 167 yards and 2 TDs through the air. Maybe we still should have passed more. Happy to take the win and move on, though.

As for "what do the analytics say", they probably help by telling coaches who are too conservative to go for it more often, but some teams don't have the OL to go for it on 4th down. You have to know who your team is.

Maybe this is more useful. UNC's schedule so far, from ESPN

Regular Season​

@ Minnesota W19-17
vs Charlotte W38-20
vs NC Central W45-10
vs James Madison L70-50
@ Duke L21-20
vs Pitt L34-24
https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401635572/pitt-north-carolina
So, they started the season by winning 3 in a row, and now they've lost three in a row, including a home game vs Pitt. King should be a better QB than Eli Holstein (Pitt), and he's definitely better than Maalik Murphy (Duke). Holstein ran for a TD and threw for 381 against UNC at Chapel Hill.

UNC fans are complaining about arm tackling and poor technique.

Jacoby Criswell (UNC's QB) has been sacked 7 times on the year, once last week by Pitt, and twice by Duke. He's thrown 7 TD's and 3 INTs. He's carried the ball 16 times for 111 yards. He averages about 7 yards per dropback, but only a 57% completion percentage. UNC has explosive plays--they seem to be feast or famine--Criswell's longest completion is for 48 yards. In terms of yards and touchdowns, he's about the same as King, but King is much more efficient. Criswell slings it.

Omarion Hampton has carried 137 times for 764 yards (5.6 yards per carry), with 7 TDs and a long of 53 yards. He's about 64% of their entire rushing yards. He's the leading rusher in the ACC at 127 yards per game. He's 8th in conference at TD points scored per game at 7 pts/game (Jamal Haynes is 9th at 6 points/game). He's also one of their leading receivers.

Basically, on offense, Hampton is one of the players you want to shut down.

Overall, they're a very good rushing offense, not so good passing, and big on explosive plays.

On defense, they're middling at everything. We are at least good against the run.

The one big thing to keep your eye on is-- UNC thrives on big plays. We give up big plays. Our defense needs to keep the plays in front of them and make tackles consistently.

 

[CEB]

Some thoughts on this game:
-first, we have to win this game. I couldn’t stand seeing his smirky dumb face if we lose.
-with that said, UNC is not a good team, but they are not terrible.
-I watched the condensed game with Pitt and Hampton gashed them a bunch up the middle on runs. Hampton is still a very good running back. He’s a big guy and has good balance and vision. He’s not overly fast, but he’s hard to bring down. Even though I’ve been really pleased with our run D this year, our LBs worry me and I pray that they have a good game this week.
-UNc defense is the same D we had, players being tentative to come make tackles, WRs running wide open at times and you’re wondering where are the DBs, a lot of disfunction all over the place.
- i think we need to plan to take advantage of them planning to blitz us a lot, I feel like tiny Geoffrey is going to try and throw blitzes all game trying to make something happen. I would be looking at quick slants/RBs screens in the game plan to burn them.
-our old friend Nate mccoullum had a good game against Pitt and I assume he will want to do the same against us
-I hope we score 50+ and it will be highly enjoyable watching social media and interviews after the game.

Agreed! I was going to post something similar.
Watching the Duke / UNC game and the tale of two halves…
I thought Duke had trouble up front in the first half. UNC was twisting a lot with LB and DL. Duke didn’t communicate very well. OL would take the guy coming across his face and the twist would come cleanly behind through huge gaps. It almost looked like UNC “guessed right” several times too. Duke had some chances but missed some throws and dropped some catchable balls. I think a lot of Dukes first half issues were self inflicted.

Second half, Duke cleaned up OL communication (maybe more zone block?), ran more outside / edges and had success. Duke backs did a good job being patient and identifying cutbacks, although i do think a handful were called counters. Second half Duke running game looked similar to what we did to FSU several times; Duke OL washed them out and backs had huge cutback lanes.
Ironically, two of Dukes big plays came from those silly flat screen passes we like to throw. Hopefully the coaches don’t listen to this brain trust and abandon the concept entirely.

Not sure about our D vs their O, but I know for certain that I’d like to see them keep it in the air. If they play to their strength (O Hampton), this game could be a real grind. They made plenty of mistakes. Hopefully they keep themselves behind the chains and we can get them behind on the scoreboard so they go away from Hampton voluntarily.