Tech making the playoff? Easy as 1-2-3 (plus 4-5-6)

[vamosjackets]

Just win and be in argument:
http://www.littlewhitestatistics.com/the-case-for-georgia-tech-in-the-college-football-playoff/

Dude! Holy crap. This is the silver bullet. We need to be selling the crap out of this right now. We need to buy commercials for this on ESPN, send it in to the Atlanta radio and newspaper media, send it to national media like SI and even NYT (and obviously ESPN). We win and we are in, and a very intelligent and capable rhetorician/statistician just did all of the hard work to prove it. His (or her) argument is undeniable.

Do you know who did this, btw?

 

[AE 87]

Dude! Holy crap. This is the silver bullet. We need to be selling the crap out of this right now. We need to buy commercials for this on ESPN, send it in to the Atlanta radio and newspaper media, send it to national media like SI and even NYT (and obviously ESPN). We win and we are in, and a very intelligent and capable rhetorician/statistician just did all of the hard work to prove it. His (or her) argument is undeniable.

Do you know who did this, btw?

Don't know who it is but maybe @Eric can tweet the link to the right people.

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

This is a very good piece, and if Ken Seguira knows about it, he might use it in one of his pieces. That would be awesome. Any positive press is positive.

 

[vamosjackets]

Don't know who it is but maybe @Eric can tweet the link to the right people.

I just emailed Bobinski about it. I even looked for DRad's email to email it to him (he's on the committee right?). I'm serious. We need to get this in the minds of the public and the minds of the powers so that they know. And, perhaps more importantly, THEY KNOW THAT WE KNOW.

If I'm the GTAA, I would seriously consider buying some ads in the right publications and commercials on the right shows to give this message an undeniable presence in the current cultural perception of college football. That's the game right now, and we have to play it. The thing is, we have the winning hand and the chips, so let's play.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I just emailed Bobinski about it. I even looked for DRad's email to email it to him (he's on the committee right?). I'm serious. We need to get this in the minds of the public and the minds of the powers so that they know. And, perhaps more importantly, THEY KNOW THAT WE KNOW.

If I'm the GTAA, I would seriously consider buying some ads in the right publications and commercials on the right shows to give this message an undeniable presence in the current cultural perception of college football. That's the game right now, and we have to play it. The thing is, we have the winning hand and the chips, so let's play.

cart before the horse, dude.

 

[vamosjackets]

cart before the horse, dude.

If we don't get this out there now, there is no cart to hook our horse to. If we win and then do it, it will be too late to make an impact and will seem like contrived desperation. If we do it now, it will seem like we're just getting the truth out there for whatever happens.

The horse is the team's job. Making sure there's a cart and filling it up is the rest of the GT nation's job (including the administration and the media).

 

[nod]

cart before the horse, dude.

Have to be prepared, there is only 14 hours from end of ACC-CG till they decide final 4.

 

[dmurdock]

In our best case scenario (GT over FSU, Wisc over tOSU, & K State over Baylor), then the 4th spot comes down to ACC Champion GT, Big Ten Champion Wisconsin, and 2-loss SEC Miss St. If conference championship means as much as they claimed at the beginning of the process, then I like our chances. Unfortunately, their "talk" has changed to fit their agenda, and thus I would expect a 2-loss Miss State to get that 4th spot. Besides if #1 & #4 are both SEC, they get to play in the Sugar Bowl and it guarantees that the SEC will have a team in the championship game. Imagine what the over/under will be on the number of times that talking heads will claim that the Sugar Bowl is the "real national championship game".

 

[jeffgt14]

I'm sorry that article is incredibly dumb. It uses some of the same stupid logic that the CFP committee is using to put FSU at #4. I feel stupider (see?) just for reading that section about why we should jump a 1 loss Baylor. Statistics can prove your point about 99% of the time.

 

[potatohead]

I'm sorry that article is incredibly dumb. It uses some of the same stupid logic that the CFP committee is using to put FSU at #4. I feel stupider (see?) just for reading that section about why we should jump a 1 loss Baylor. Statistics can prove your point about 99% of the time.

the case assumes that k state beats baylor which would make them a two loss team. it excludes k state because their resume. to add more to that however, k state isn't a conference champ and the committee has made clear that will play a large role in it.. at least thats how i understand it.

to your point though, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

EDIT: i see what you mean, there is a 1 loss analysis too...now that's just dumb.

 

[AE 87]

@jeffgt14 @potatohead
I think what y'all are missing is he's making the case according to the ground rules established by the committee on purpose.

The point isn't to make a case for why GT should be selected in a fantasy world in which the CFP committee acts in keeping with what you consider logical. Rather, it says that if you use the standards they've apparently bought-into in which it makes sense to rank some 1-loss teams higher than a zero-loss team, then it makes sense to rank this 2-loss team higher than some 1-loss teams.

 

[vamosjackets]

I'm sorry that article is incredibly dumb. It uses some of the same stupid logic that the CFP committee is using to put FSU at #4. I feel stupider (see?) just for reading that section about why we should jump a 1 loss Baylor. Statistics can prove your point about 99% of the time.

Here is the Baylor analysis for reference:
Baylor is presently ranked #6 in the College Football Playoff rankings, while Georgia Tech is ranked #11. Baylor plays Kansas State this weekend. For the sake of this analysis, we will assume Baylor wins this weekend, in order to make the case that Georgia Tech deserves a berth over the best possible case for Baylor.

Criteria
Georgia Tech
Baylor
Advantage

Overall Record
11-2
12-1
Baylor

Record Against Then-Ranked Teams
3-0
3-0
Draw

Record Against Now-Ranked Teams
3-0
3-0
Draw

Strength of Schedule
#20
#29
Georgia Tech

Total Margin of Loss
11
14
Georgia Tech

Record of Teams Responsible for Losses
15-9
7-5
Georgia Tech

Baylor’s overall superior record looms large as its only loss comes against 7-5 West Virginia. However, Baylor and Georgia Tech possess the same number of quality wins: assuming wins this weekend, Georgia Tech will have won games over teams now-ranked #19, #9, and #4, while Baylor will have won games over teams then-ranked #18, #9, and #4. Baylor’s lone loss came in an uncompetitive game against 7-5 West Virginia, while Georgia Tech’s two losses both game in games that went down to the last drive against 6-6 UNC and 9-3 Duke. It is obviously preferable to have one fewer loss, but the lopsidedness of Baylor’s one loss and the competitiveness of Georgia Tech’s two losses narrow the game. Georgia Tech’s three wins over ranked teams also come at the end of the year, suggesting superiority from Georgia Tech entering the last week of the season. Baylor, meanwhile, barely defeated 4-8 Texas Tech last weekend.

The only criteria by which Baylor is superior to Georgia Tech is that it has one fewer loss. Its one loss is worse than either of Georgia Tech’s losses, its strength of schedule is slightly weaker, and it struggled to defeat a bad team in the closing week of the season. It is also inferred that the committee would prefer not to place two teams from the same conference in the playoff bracket (much less two teams that played one another), and that a 2-loss ACC team would receive a berth over a second 1-loss Big 12 team. Based on these elements, a 2-loss Georgia Tech deserves a bid over a 1-loss Baylor team on the basis of superior performance at the close of the season.


He admits that the case comparing Baylor is the weakest link when comparing the given metrics (though GT still wins that comparison). The big thing putting GT in front of Baylor is not having 2 teams from the same conference and GT as conference champion. It would be total BS if the Big 12 got 2 teams in just because they don't have a championship game. I think it would even be fair if they didn't get any teams in (let alone 2) for not having to play a championship game. So, it's either TCU, Baylor, or none. Thus in his analysis with TCU being in, Baylor is eliminated. Makes complete sense.

 

[potatohead]

@jeffgt14 @potatohead
I think what y'all are missing is he's making the case according to the ground rules established by the committee on purpose.

The point isn't to make a case for why GT should be selected in a fantasy world in which the CFP committee acts in keeping with what you consider logical. Rather, it says that if you use the standards they've apparently bought-into in which it makes sense to rank some 1-loss teams higher than a zero-loss team, then it makes sense to rank this 2-loss team higher than some 1-loss teams.

First off, what ground rules? You're referring to their guidelines on their website? If they followed their own guidelines, FSU should not be #4. End of discussion. This guy is looking at a group of individual human beings that have no "ground rules" or are operating by their own. I can't see how there is a large enough sample size with consistent enough scenarios over a long enough period of time to assume that one could deduce the "logic" of the CFP committee and apply that logic to hypothetical future wins and losses.. there's just no way.

 

[potatohead]

that being said, I don't disagree with some of his cases. I like one scenario very much and could get us close, or at least it should if it plays out that way...i just don't think it will and I definitely don't think we should, or could, sneak in past a one loss baylor. but i like k state in that game anyway...

 

[vamosjackets]

that being said, I don't disagree with some of his cases. I like one scenario very much and could get us close, or at least it should if it plays out that way...i just don't think it will and I definitely don't think we should, or could, sneak in past a one loss baylor. but i like k state in that game anyway...

So you think Baylor and TCU should be in the playoff if they both win Saturday?

 

[UgaBlows]

Imo, There's no way they are putting two teams in from the same conf.

 

[potatohead]

So you think Baylor and TCU should be in the playoff if they both win Saturday?

k state will beat them. but if not, i don't see that no. but if the right teams lost and they won, i think the committee has to make a hard decision on what being a co-champion means. it'd be nice to see them punish the big 12 for not declaring a true champion.

should a one loss fsu be punished for losing in the championship to, decisively, the second best team in the acc and top 10 in the country? Does a 'ship supercede quality losses? Baylor did lose to WVU. Does a 'ship and head to head win override an undefeated regular season? i don't know how they weigh their "guidelines", no one does.

i think its pretty clear, you've got to take power 5 conference winner, and 3 at large, and go to a 8 team playoff.

 

[UgaBlows]

All of the playoff ranking shows have been b.s. Leading up to the upcoming, nothing but something for talkng head idiots to debate and for watercooler talk. Conf. champs are going to be the big winners in the show at the end.

Strength of schedule is going to play a role in this, and the Big12 champ(s) are going to be one (high quality opponent) game short of the other power5 conferences. Imo, they are going to have to add another team and hold a conf champ game too, or risk getting left out in the cold more often than not in this new playoff deal.

 

[IEEEWreck]

Why the committee will keep us out:

GT- Bama game starts with a large GT lead, but ugly game with 12 injuries to the Jackets sees Bama tie the game in the last 4 seconds of regulation. After a tie in the 6th round of overtime ends with JT in a coma and 4 Bama defenders ejected for targeting, CPJ challenges Saban to single combat to the death. CPJ breaks one end of the first down markers from the chain and uses it like a flail, while Saban grabs the down marker and rips off the top, leaving a rent metal spear. After a long battle, CPJ appears on the brink of victory after he destroys Saban's knees. Just as CPJ is about to deliver the death blow, the ghost of Bear Bryant, having been promoted to a greater demon by Satan, rises from the ground and rips Saban's heart from his chest. As Bryant feasts on the heart, the Bama players' eyes explode and their flesh melts, running along the ground and turning Bryant into a 40 foot tall monster. Their dark ritual opens a pit to hell, and all manner of demons and the damned rush out.

Just as all seems lost, Bobby Dodd descends from heaven at the head of a host of scientists, engineers, and businessmen all wearing leather cap football helmets. Having foreseen this day on his retirement, Dodd left instructions for Georgia Tech to build a giant robot because Bryant's oversigning, scholarship yanking ways could only lead to one place: a giant world ending flesh demon. Dodd and his host blind the monster just long enough for CPJ to get into the Georgia Tech robot. A 12 min fight sequence later, CPJ realizes that the monster is just too strong. He tackles the monster's legs out from under it and detonates the thermonuclear weapon hidden in the robot's chest.

Humanity survives, but nearly 4 million people die that day.

The playoff committee simply cannot allow that to come to pass.

And THAT'S why the committee needs an air force general and former secretary of state.

 

[jeffgt14]

If the article is supposed to be a joke in making fun of the retarded criteria used by committee then I get it. If it’s being serious then I go back to my original statement.

No matter what happens this weekend I don’t see us jumping Kansas State if they win. They’ll be co-champions with TCU or outright champions if TCU loses. The committee won’t put a 2 loss team with losses to Duke and UNC over a 2 loss team with losses to Auburn and TCU. They’ve shown already how much stock they put into the quality loss department over quality wins. Just look at Michigan State being above us now as well as Oregon being above FSU. Alabama is the only interesting one because they won’t have an explanation to put a 2 loss Bama team over a 2 loss Missouri team that just beat them. BIG12 is at a huge advantage not having a championship game because they can swing out the co-champion card no matter what happens.