Statistics that give me hope about our offense

[ibeattetris]

I don't think I had many positives to say last year about our offense (rank 100 in offensive efficiency and a solid rank 122 in points per play yikes). However, the amount of negativity so far this year has been a bit uncalled for. I won't be arguing that we are good on offense, or that there is nothing to be concerned about, but I hope that the stats I show highlight how GT has exhibited solid improvement compared to last year. I am also purposefully avoiding scoring statistics. I am well aware that we are not scoring, but last year's team didn't score much either I am also avoiding total stats like "yards per game" as they are worthless.

3 and out Percentage
2019: 43.5%
2020: 25%
I don't know about you, but watching our team fail to make a first down on close to half the drives last year was brutal. This year we are only at 25% and that is with the Cuse game adding 7 to our total (we went into the game with only 3 total). This a DRASTIC improvement and is the biggest reason I am hopeful. BCFToys had us as the 129th worst team at 3 and outs last year when removing "garbage time" drives. The fact that we are nearly 20% better is an incredible improvement and should be commended.

Available Yards Performance
2019:
Avg yard to endzone: 73.4
Avg yard per drive: 23.7
Available Yards Percentage: 34.1%

2020:
Avg yard to endzone: 68.3
Avg yard per drive: 29.8
Available Yards Percentage: 41.6%
This is another good leap. In 2019, BCFToys had us ranked 127th in this stat. 41.6% is still on the low side (near 100th place), that is still a good improvement. We have also improved our average starting field position by 5 yards. This is more of a team stat, but shows we are making strides.

Turnover rate
2019: 13.6
2020: 22.5
While it is obviously terrible how many turnovers we are committing, I find it incredible that we are better than last year in almost every offensive category despite this. I do not personally believe we will continue to commit turnovers at this rate, so I think this will only get better. Interestingly, BCFToys had us ranked 110th last year in this category, and this years current rate would make us solidly last.

This is not a conclusive list, but are some of the obvious things I noticed from watching the games.

 

[jgtengineer]

3 and out and turnovers are the same.

 

[ibeattetris]

3 and out and turnovers are the same.

As in you consider them the same? When I did the calculations I didn't count it that way. I did count a turnover as a three and out if the drive didn't record a first down though.

 

[jgtengineer]

As in you consider them the same? When I did the calculations I didn't count it that way. I did count a turnover as a three and out if the drive didn't record a first down though.

I do consider them the same. Its pretty much the same thing as a deep ball interception. It was a little different under johnson when a 3 and out probably still ate ~2 minutes of clock(it was also different under gailey for the same reason, we were very run heavy/play action in nix's offense). Because that wasn't as painful but when you are going any sort of tempo a 3 and out is the same as a turnover. This year we are driving and turning it over... last year we didn't drive. Result is still a lost possession.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Our offense is light years better this year. It’s undeniable. Each game is far more yards than we had in any single game last year. Our problem this year is stupid mistakes like turnovers, penalties, and kicks. Second to that, we are missing way too many quality people on defense. The defense isn’t exactly playing badly either - the offense keeps putting them in bad spots. The good news on offense is those are not difficult to fix mistakes. The bad news is we haven’t figured out how to fix them yet.

 

[TruckStick]

From my perspective, the team as a whole is drastically better this year. We will start winning games decisively when the interceptions stop and special teams issues are fixed.

 

[sgreer]

Penalties are very concerning as well- those put the offense in a hole time after time- way worse than last year at this point. No ability to kick a field goal hurts also- worse than last year as well. I just want to see some improvement and these areas should be fixable no excuses.

 

[4shotB]

Penalties are very concerning as well- those put the offense in a hole time after time- way worse than last year at this point. No ability to kick a field goal hurts also- worse than last year as well. I just want to see some improvement and these areas should be fixable no excuses.

The false starts and procedural stuff is inexplicable. To the naked eye, it seems like we are guilty of iton most every play and not just even what we were actually flagged for. In an empty stadium.With a year's experience on the Ol and regression in this area, could it be adjusting to a new qb and his snap cadence? I know this is grasping at straws but these should be fixable and are clouding the perception of the very obvious improve statistically. Thanks to the OP for pulling that together. As my friend used to say..."in God I trust, all others must bring data!".

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I know this is grasping at straws but these should be fixable and are clouding the perception of the very obvious improve statistically.

It’s not grasping at straws IMHO - we don’t need to demand less than 5 penalties. But something like 5-8 is more normal and manageable. 15 penalties is averaging more than 1 per drive. It’s like starting every drive with a 1st and 20 - it’s an unnecessary handicap. We should be scoring 28-35 points a Game based on our underlying offenseive numbers. The kicking problem is also insane to me. I MYSELF CAN ****ING KICK EXTRA POINTS. When I was at Tech they had a kicking contest for a social activity out on the field shortly after classes started. You started with a 20 yard FG, moved back 5 yards at a time, and when you missed 3 at a distance you were out. I didn’t miss a single kick until 40 yards. It’s different in pads and in action, but we seriously look worse than a HIGH SCHOOL TEAM. There is no excuse to struggle with extra points and 30 yard kicks. Those are so damned close.

 

[Scubapro]

I think we set a record for three and outs last year with fifty plus. So there was really no where to go but up for that stat.
The stat that worries me is the scoreless quarters. Last year I think we had twenty-four scoreless quarters. Thats basically half the season without scoring a point.
Through three games we are at five for a 42% no score rate so far this season. Better than last year but still horrible.
Penalties, botched kicks, and turnovers all play a substantial part in our "No score O"

 

[4shotB]

It’s not grasping at straws IMHO - we don’t need to demand less than 5 penalties. But something like 5-8 is more normal and manageable. 15 penalties is averaging more than 1 per drive. It’s like starting every drive with a 1st and 20 - it’s an unnecessary handicap. We should be scoring 28-35 points a Game based on our underlying offenseive numbers. The kicking problem is also insane to me. I MYSELF CAN ****ING KICK EXTRA POINTS. When I was at Tech they had a kicking contest for a social activity out on the field shortly after classes started. You started with a 20 yard FG, moved back 5 yards at a time, and when you missed 3 at a distance you were out. I didn’t miss a single kick until 40 yards. It’s different in pads and in action, but we seriously look worse than a HIGH SCHOOL TEAM. There is no excuse to struggle with extra points and 30 yard kicks. Those are so damned close.

The 'grasping at straws" part was the speculation on cadence/new QB being the root cause of regression in terms of penalties. I am optimistic but I believe all of are aligned in agreement that 15 is, in fact, unexcusable and is a reflection on and responsibilty of the coaches to fix. I can't block Mean Joe Greene. But I can remain in my stance until the ball is snapped. Especially in an empty stadium.

The other jaw dropping penalty was the crack back block on one of our receivers. On the opposite side of the field from the direction of the run play. That was imo a cheap shot and unnecessary.

 

[4shotB]

Through three games we are at five for a 42% no score rate so far this season. Better than last year but still horrible.
Penalties, botched kicks, and turnovers all play a substantial part in our "No score O"

the kicking game until it is fixed is going to put a cap on how much we progress. Turnovers and penalties can or should be correctable. I am afraid we are back to the point where we will be forced to go for 7 all the time and take unnecessary risks because we can not convert a 25 yard FG.

 

[slugboy]

Thanks @ibeattetris — I love BCFToys, and I haven’t looked much at them this year.

I don’t think we can fix turnovers in isolation from other things, but they may be fixable. At UCF and Syracuse, a lot of them were related to pass protection problems and batted/tipped passes. Against FSU, they were either underthrown passes or just not seeing the defender. In short, they’re not all on the QB, but some of those passes shouldn’t have been thrown.

When we put in Gleason and Yates, the pass protection issues showed up in sacks and a couple of thrown away passes.
So, we need the pass protection to be more robust and last a little longer. We need at least receiver to come open quicker—I’m not sure if this is by running different routes or by effort or by a height mismatch, but we need to be able to find an open receiver quickly. This might be a place for the tight ends or the backs to play.

Our points per play is down slightly from last year, so we’re less explosive but more efficient. (0.236 v 0.254). That makes sense, because explosive plays was all we had last year. I haven’t found our 2020 points per drive, but I think that’s somewhat better. Points per game is up from 16 ppg last year to 19 this year. I think everyone sees the potential for a lot more points than we’re getting.

 

[sgreer]

The false starts and procedural stuff is inexplicable. To the naked eye, it seems like we are guilty of iton most every play and not just even what we were actually flagged for. In an empty stadium.With a year's experience on the Ol and regression in this area, could it be adjusting to a new qb and his snap cadence? I know this is grasping at straws but these should be fixable and are clouding the perception of the very obvious improve statistically. Thanks to the OP for pulling that together. As my friend used to say..."in God I trust, all others must bring data!".

It’s not good to have to start over with a new QB (especially true Fr). I am disappointed Graham apparently did not improve in the off season enough to win the job. I thought he might ha be learned a lot from last year and improve along with better offensive line play.

 

[Pointer]

Thanks @ibeattetris — I love BCFToys, and I haven’t looked much at them this year.

I don’t think we can fix turnovers in isolation from other things, but they may be fixable. At UCF and Syracuse, a lot of them were related to pass protection problems and batted/tipped passes. Against FSU, they were either underthrown passes or just not seeing the defender. In short, they’re not all on the QB, but some of those passes shouldn’t have been thrown.

When we put in Gleason and Yates, the pass protection issues showed up in sacks and a couple of thrown away passes.
So, we need the pass protection to be more robust and last a little longer. We need at least receiver to come open quicker—I’m not sure if this is by running different routes or by effort or by a height mismatch, but we need to be able to find an open receiver quickly. This might be a place for the tight ends or the backs to play.

Our points per play is down slightly from last year, so we’re less explosive but more efficient. (0.236 v 0.254). That makes sense, because explosive plays was all we had last year. I haven’t found our 2020 points per drive, but I think that’s somewhat better. Points per game is up from 16 ppg last year to 19 this year. I think everyone sees the potential for a lot more points than we’re getting.

I remember seeing a bunch of olay calls with 4 or more receivers running routes, why make it so difficult in a young QB? Lean on the running game, call more screens, and overall give the qb less to read. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Coloradojacket]

I don't think I had many positives to say last year about our offense (rank 100 in offensive efficiency and a solid rank 122 in points per play yikes). However, the amount of negativity so far this year has been a bit uncalled for. I won't be arguing that we are good on offense, or that there is nothing to be concerned about, but I hope that the stats I show highlight how GT has exhibited solid improvement compared to last year. I am also purposefully avoiding scoring statistics. I am well aware that we are not scoring, but last year's team didn't score much either I am also avoiding total stats like "yards per game" as they are worthless.

3 and out Percentage
2019: 43.5%
2020: 25%
I don't know about you, but watching our team fail to make a first down on close to half the drives last year was brutal. This year we are only at 25% and that is with the Cuse game adding 7 to our total (we went into the game with only 3 total). This a DRASTIC improvement and is the biggest reason I am hopeful. BCFToys had us as the 129th worst team at 3 and outs last year when removing "garbage time" drives. The fact that we are nearly 20% better is an incredible improvement and should be commended.

Available Yards Performance
2019:
Avg yard to endzone: 73.4
Avg yard per drive: 23.7
Available Yards Percentage: 34.1%

2020:
Avg yard to endzone: 68.3
Avg yard per drive: 29.8
Available Yards Percentage: 41.6%
This is another good leap. In 2019, BCFToys had us ranked 127th in this stat. 41.6% is still on the low side (near 100th place), that is still a good improvement. We have also improved our average starting field position by 5 yards. This is more of a team stat, but shows we are making strides.

Turnover rate
2019: 13.6
2020: 22.5
While it is obviously terrible how many turnovers we are committing, I find it incredible that we are better than last year in almost every offensive category despite this. I do not personally believe we will continue to commit turnovers at this rate, so I think this will only get better. Interestingly, BCFToys had us ranked 110th last year in this category, and this years current rate would make us solidly last.

This is not a conclusive list, but are some of the obvious things I noticed from watching the games.

Ok, hate to be the downer here but you are doing stats on three games. And FSU is terrible. Let's see how we are after we add in Clemson, ND, Miami, Pitt etc. Uga alone last year , 18 punts, accounted for a lot of 3 and outs.

Here is the real stat we need to be concerned about 18 points, that is what we average per game when we include last year and this year.

 

[Ibeeballin]

I do consider them the same. Its pretty much the same thing as a deep ball interception. It was a little different under johnson when a 3 and out probably still ate ~2 minutes of clock(it was also different under gailey for the same reason, we were very run heavy/play action in nix's offense). Because that wasn't as painful but when you are going any sort of tempo a 3 and out is the same as a turnover. This year we are driving and turning it over... last year we didn't drive. Result is still a lost possession.

So now we are creating our own metrics? Geez Louise

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I think we set a record for three and outs last year with fifty plus. So there was really no where to go but up for that stat.
The stat that worries me is the scoreless quarters. Last year I think we had twenty-four scoreless quarters. Thats basically half the season without scoring a point.
Through three games we are at five for a 42% no score rate so far this season. Better than last year but still horrible.
Penalties, botched kicks, and turnovers all play a substantial part in our "No score O"

There is no doubt that overall the offense is much better than last year, and yet we still don't score. In the few games last year when we moved the ball relatively well, that wasn't reflected by the points on the board. We are seeing the same thing this year, although we obviously have had more chances to score than we did last year.

 

[Coloradojacket]

There is no doubt that overall the offense is much better than last year, and yet we still don't score. In the few games last year when we moved the ball relatively well, that wasn't reflected by the points on the board. We are seeing the same thing this year, although we obviously have had more chances to score than we did last year.

Um, let's look close at this. Forget FSU and we only scored 16 on them. In our last two games in the 3 and 4th quarter our opposition has shut us down. 7 points with UCF and 7 points with Cuse. In the fourth with Cuse on 6 possession 21 yards.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Um, let's look close at this. Forget FSU and we only scored 16 on them. In our last two games in the 3 and 4th quarter our opposition has shut us down. 7 points with UCF and 7 points with Cuse. In the fourth with Cuse on 6 possession 21 yards.

I don't remember all the stats off the top of my head, but I don't think UCF shut us down until the 4th quarter, or at least very late in the 3rd quarter. That "shut down" was caused more by our defense finally becoming exhausted, putting us more in desperation mode on offense than anything Cuse never really shut the offense down so much as our offense shut itself down. In both games, however, smarter play-calling on offense could have at least alleviated some of that, and, with regards to Cuse, could have put us back in striking distance again.