Starting Over - Under on GT 2023 win total is out

[rfjeff9]

4.5 wins? Subject to change, of course, but If I was into betting I would call a bookie and take the over.

https://www.si.com/college/georgiatech/football/first-georgia-tech-win-totals-line-released

At Caesars. Georgia Tech's win total is sitting at 4.5, with +105 odds to the over and -135 to the under. At DraftKings, the number is at 4, with the over at -115 odds and the under at +115.

That is currently the lowest win total in the ACC and in terms of national title odds, Georgia Tech is currently at +75000.

 

[Billygoat91]

4.5 wins? Subject to change, of course, but If I was into betting I would call a bookie and take the over.

https://www.si.com/college/georgiatech/football/first-georgia-tech-win-totals-line-released

At Caesars. Georgia Tech's win total is sitting at 4.5, with +105 odds to the over and -135 to the under. At DraftKings, the number is at 4, with the over at -115 odds and the under at +115.

That is currently the lowest win total in the ACC and in terms of national title odds, Georgia Tech is currently at +75000.

To play devil's advocate, Vegas is probably looking at our narrow win margins, new staff, new qb, etc as all things that make it difficult to see more wins from us.

Personally, I think we go bowling this year and surprise some people. I think the talent level on our roster is better than what many realize

 

[Northeast Stinger]

OVER

 

[iceeater1969]

We are what we are, until we are not.


A Louisville big win will add an extra game plus = 6+.

 

[MaverickGT]

5-6 wins sounds right on the money. Team will be disciplined and play hard, but we literally have Zero studs, standouts on this team. Toughness can only take a team so far. it's all about NIL and the Jimmy's and Joe's, until that changes we are stuck in mediocrity

 

[Lotta Booze]

I definitely think we'll hit the over, in part because we did last year and I expect improvement this year with a caching staff that has more organization and time to prep.

BUT, if I take my fan spectacles off I can understand the line. Who are we really going to be favored to win against?
SC St., Bowling Green, BC.... and maybe UVA? Miami? Both teams who beat us last year...

I think we're going to give a lot of teams a tough game and surprise some folks but until we do I don't think anyone is viewing us as much of a contender in the ACC

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I definitely think we'll hit the over, in part because we did last year and I expect improvement this year with a caching staff that has more organization and time to prep.

BUT, if I take my fan spectacles off I can understand the line. Who are we really going to be favored to win against?
SC St., Bowling Green, BC.... and maybe UVA? Miami? Both teams who beat us last year...

I think we're going to give a lot of teams a tough game and surprise some folks but until we do I don't think anyone is viewing us as much of a contender in the ACC

Realistic to say we won’t win the ACC. But seems equally realistic to say we win more than 4 games. Between those two parameters it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[g0lftime]

I expect the offense to be better with our QB maturity and coaching upgrade. I don't expect the defense to be as good. We lost a NFL draft pick and two good linebackers. Losing Stone was not good either. We have more size on the DL than we have had most years that I hope makes up for some of the departures.

 

[GTBandman]

many of us thought we would be at least a .500 team before if we just had any common sense on the sideline. Talent gap is one thing, a extra 2-3 L's due to bad preparation and game management/in-game adjustments is another.

 

[AUFC]

Defense is going to regress biGTime which is the main reason I wouldn't bet this (also living in Georgia where sportsbetting isn't legal). But you can win a lot of ACC games just by playing K.I.S.S. fundamentally sound football and waiting for your opponent to make boneheaded plays. Narduzzi's Pitt teams have won conference championships off that and Cutcliffe's Duke teams punched above their weight with the same strategy. At least we will not have our coaching staff losing games where the guys on the field outplay their opponent anymore.

 

[Root4GT]

Defense is going to regress biGTime which is the main reason I wouldn't bet this (also living in Georgia where sportsbetting isn't legal). But you can win a lot of ACC games just by playing K.I.S.S. fundamentally sound football and waiting for your opponent to make boneheaded plays. Narduzzi's Pitt teams have won conference championships off that and Cutcliffe's Duke teams punched above their weight with the same strategy. At least we will not have our coaching staff losing games where the guys on the field outplay their opponent anymore.

You are underselling Pitt’s talent pool. 26 players drafted in the past 8 NFL Drafts. Compare that to GT.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

4.5 wins? Subject to change, of course, but If I was into betting I would call a bookie and take the over.

https://www.si.com/college/georgiatech/football/first-georgia-tech-win-totals-line-released

At Caesars. Georgia Tech's win total is sitting at 4.5, with +105 odds to the over and -135 to the under. At DraftKings, the number is at 4, with the over at -115 odds and the under at +115.

That is currently the lowest win total in the ACC and in terms of national title odds, Georgia Tech is currently at +75000.

Beat Louisville and Wake Forest early on the Over is a lock. Lose one or both then it gets dicey. This schedule is more reasonable than the ones we have had in recent years but lose a couple of early games that could be won and it might unravel in a hurry. IIWII

 

[JacketFan137]

we will probably lose some games we should win and win some we should lose. i think 5 wins is very realistic and achievable.

it’s still early into the off-season. there will be another round of transfers in and out from a lot of schools

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

I posted this in a different thread back in February, but I think it is worth revisiting now that books are releasing season win totals-

I have been a profitable recreational sports bettor the past three years, using a quantitative methodology based heavily in analytics and advanced stats. One of my most important tools in betting the regular season win market (and weekly sides for that matter) has been Bill Connelly's SP+ projections, located behind a paywall on ESPN+ or here (for historical ratings, at least). I use a weighted combination of different ranking systems for my weekly side projections. Through statistical analysis I've found that SP+ are most predictive for Regular Season Win totals, however.

Generally speaking, SP+ rankings are intended to predictive and forward facing, reflecting opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Preseason SP+ projections are based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production - accounts for transfers and attrition. The combo of the previous year's SP+ and adjustments based on returning production make up almost half of the projection's formula.
2. Recent recruiting, including transfers - makes up for ~ 1/3 of the formula
3. Recent history - uses 2-4 years of info from previous seasons to account for overall program health. This is where any adjustments due to coaching changes are made. Makes up about 15% of the formula.

GT finished 2022 with an SP+ of -11.8. The good news is that with the returning production, transfers, coaching change, etc our preseason rating for '23 is -2.4. I was expecting our improvement to be around 7/8 points, so this was a pleasant surprise. I've linked the entire Preseason SP+ and Returning Production numbers here for your reference.

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread. I have found that the avg HFA for the past few years is around 1.8; you can get super granular and assign different HFA factors for different teams, but I won't do that here, and GT's factor would be lower than 1.8. Sigh.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Without any further adieu, here is our 2023 Opponent / Projected Point Spread / Implied Win %:

Louisville (neutral site) / +12.5 / 18.05%
SC State / -30 / 97.93%
@ Ole Miss / +21 / 6.83%
Bowling Green / -21.5 / 93.75%
UGA / +32.5 / 0.53%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
UNC / +13.5 / 16.72%
@ Miami / +13 / 17.39%
@ UVA / -.5 / 50%
BC / -2.5 / 54.13%
Syracuse / +3 / 42.37%
@ Wake / +8.5 / 25%

Projected Win Total of 4.27 wins. I would expect the betting market to open up between 4.5 and 5.5 Regular Season Wins for GT. I think our floor is 2 wins and our ceiling is 6 wins.

 

[Ibeeballin]

Only GT fans can tell you coaching was the reason for ineptitude the past 3yrs yet give the same type of prediction of wins with perceived better coaching

I posted this in a different thread back in February, but I think it is worth revisiting now that books are releasing season win totals-

I have been a profitable recreational sports bettor the past three years, using a quantitative methodology based heavily in analytics and advanced stats. One of my most important tools in betting the regular season win market (and weekly sides for that matter) has been Bill Connelly's SP+ projections, located behind a paywall on ESPN+ or here (for historical ratings, at least). I use a weighted combination of different ranking systems for my weekly side projections. Through statistical analysis I've found that SP+ are most predictive for Regular Season Win totals, however.

Generally speaking, SP+ rankings are intended to predictive and forward facing, reflecting opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Preseason SP+ projections are based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production - accounts for transfers and attrition. The combo of the previous year's SP+ and adjustments based on returning production make up almost half of the projection's formula.
2. Recent recruiting, including transfers - makes up for ~ 1/3 of the formula
3. Recent history - uses 2-4 years of info from previous seasons to account for overall program health. This is where any adjustments due to coaching changes are made. Makes up about 15% of the formula.

GT finished 2022 with an SP+ of -11.8. The good news is that with the returning production, transfers, coaching change, etc our preseason rating for '23 is -2.4. I was expecting our improvement to be around 7/8 points, so this was a pleasant surprise. I've linked the entire Preseason SP+ and Returning Production numbers here for your reference.

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread. I have found that the avg HFA for the past few years is around 1.8; you can get super granular and assign different HFA factors for different teams, but I won't do that here, and GT's factor would be lower than 1.8. Sigh.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Without any further adieu, here is our 2023 Opponent / Projected Point Spread / Implied Win %:

Louisville (neutral site) / +12.5 / 18.05%
SC State / -30 / 97.93%
@ Ole Miss / +21 / 6.83%
Bowling Green / -21.5 / 93.75%
UGA / +32.5 / 0.53%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
UNC / +13.5 / 16.72%
@ Miami / +13 / 17.39%
@ UVA / -.5 / 50%
BC / -2.5 / 54.13%
Syracuse / +3 / 42.37%
@ Wake / +8.5 / 25%

Projected Win Total of 4.27 wins. I would expect the betting market to open up between 4.5 and 5.5 Regular Season Wins for GT. I think our floor is 2 wins and our ceiling is 6 wins.

UL and WF being favorites let alone double digit favorites with them losing their QBs is laughable

GT is 19-6 vs. UNC with even CGC blowing yet we’re constant getting penciled in as L vs. them

 

[RyanS12]

Take the over! We go 6-6 or 7-5
W’s: Louisville SCST BGSU BC UVA Cuse
Possible W’s vs WF UNC and/or Miami

I think I’ll Miss on the road that early is a lot to handle. Wake is well coached but lost a Heisman level QB. At Miami is tough but they are schizophrenic as hell. We own UNC but they’re talented. Clemson and UGA are CFP teams. We won’t beat them but I’m sure we won’t get beat like we did under coach dumb ****!

 

[Root4GT]

Only GT fans can tell you coaching was the reason for ineptitude the past 3yrs yet give the same type of prediction of wins with perceived better coaching




UL and WF being favorites let alone double digit favorites with them losing their QBs is laughable

GT is 19-6 vs. UNC with even CGC blowing yet we’re constant getting penciled in as L vs. them

Louisville's QB has played for their coach previously at Purdue prior to transferring to California. He is by far more experienced and proven than our QBs. Here is a quick summary of his career. - A member of the Class of 2018 recruiting class, Plummer started nine games at Purdue and was the full-time starter this season at California. He has thrown for 6,500 career yards while tossing 47 touchdowns, 19 interceptions, and averaging 6.9 yards per attempt. He has completed 601 of 943 passes in 29 career games.

The Wake QB is inexperienced. Clawson has had a good run of QBs during his time as Wake's coach. Expecting a huge drop off is being optimistic.

There is clearly more hope for GT football this year, Still the team is very unproven, especially on the offense. We need to score at a minimum 10-14 points more per game than last year. That is a big step.

 

[Ibeeballin]

Take the over! We go 6-6 or 7-5
W’s: Louisville SCST BGSU BC UVA Cuse
Possible W’s vs WF UNC and/or Miami

I think I’ll Miss on the road that early is a lot to handle. Wake is well coached but lost a Heisman level QB. At Miami is tough but they are schizophrenic as hell. We own UNC but they’re talented. Clemson and UGA are CFP teams. We won’t beat them but I’m sure we won’t get beat like we did under coach dumb ****!

Clemson has to replace like 8 starters on defense include their top 6 guys on the DL. They haven’t acquired the same type of talent in the trenches like a UGA. This should be a rebuilding yr for them. Not sold on Klubinik either

 

[RyanS12]

Clemson has to replace like 8 starters on defense include their top 6 guys on the DL. They haven’t acquired the same type of talent in the trenches like a UGA. This should be a rebuilding yr for them. Not sold on Klubinik either

Damn. Didn’t realize they lost that much on that side! I’m not saying or gonna guarantee a W there but it is late in the season so anything is possible at that point. I still think we’re a year away from really turning the corner. Going at a minimum of 3-2 in September will be big for the direction of this season. Do that, 3 more wins to hit a bowl is pretty obtainable.

 

[bobongo]

I posted this in a different thread back in February, but I think it is worth revisiting now that books are releasing season win totals-

I have been a profitable recreational sports bettor the past three years, using a quantitative methodology based heavily in analytics and advanced stats. One of my most important tools in betting the regular season win market (and weekly sides for that matter) has been Bill Connelly's SP+ projections, located behind a paywall on ESPN+ or here (for historical ratings, at least). I use a weighted combination of different ranking systems for my weekly side projections. Through statistical analysis I've found that SP+ are most predictive for Regular Season Win totals, however.

Generally speaking, SP+ rankings are intended to predictive and forward facing, reflecting opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Preseason SP+ projections are based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production - accounts for transfers and attrition. The combo of the previous year's SP+ and adjustments based on returning production make up almost half of the projection's formula.
2. Recent recruiting, including transfers - makes up for ~ 1/3 of the formula
3. Recent history - uses 2-4 years of info from previous seasons to account for overall program health. This is where any adjustments due to coaching changes are made. Makes up about 15% of the formula.

GT finished 2022 with an SP+ of -11.8. The good news is that with the returning production, transfers, coaching change, etc our preseason rating for '23 is -2.4. I was expecting our improvement to be around 7/8 points, so this was a pleasant surprise. I've linked the entire Preseason SP+ and Returning Production numbers here for your reference.

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread. I have found that the avg HFA for the past few years is around 1.8; you can get super granular and assign different HFA factors for different teams, but I won't do that here, and GT's factor would be lower than 1.8. Sigh.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Without any further adieu, here is our 2023 Opponent / Projected Point Spread / Implied Win %:

Louisville (neutral site) / +12.5 / 18.05%
SC State / -30 / 97.93%
@ Ole Miss / +21 / 6.83%
Bowling Green / -21.5 / 93.75%
UGA / +32.5 / 0.53%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
UNC / +13.5 / 16.72%
@ Miami / +13 / 17.39%
@ UVA / -.5 / 50%
BC / -2.5 / 54.13%
Syracuse / +3 / 42.37%
@ Wake / +8.5 / 25%

Projected Win Total of 4.27 wins. I would expect the betting market to open up between 4.5 and 5.5 Regular Season Wins for GT. I think our floor is 2 wins and our ceiling is 6 wins.

Barely better than a one-in-six chance of beating Louisville, and a one-in-four chance of beating Wake? And a one-in six chance of beating UNC, whom Tech has beaten four out of the last five times, including two in a row? I don't believe it. We could lose (or win) all three, but we've got better chances than those. Bet the over.