Starting Over - Under on GT 2023 win total is out

[slugboy]

We went 5-7 last season with a tougher than average strength of schedule. Last year was the best team since 2018, which isn’t saying much, but the second half of the season was much better than the first.

Key did a solid job last year. He could have done better, but he was dang good

Our coaching staff is better than last year. Our defensive coaching staff should be better than last year, although we lost one really good defensive coach and ST coordinator, but otherwise we edge stronger. Our offensive staff should be MUCH better.

Some of the issues we had last year were depth, inconsistency, and having to make mid-season changes. We have a deeper QB room, and I think the coordinators will call a game more in line with their abilities. We lost a good receiver to transfer, and another is out to injury, but I’d say it’s about the same talent level. Our RB depth is good, and I think they’ll be used more effectively. We should have a year of good OL and ST coaching.

I expect the defense to be at least as good as last season.

The schedule is really tough, but a well coached team can win 6 or 7 games against this schedule.

Clemson would be an upset, but they’re upset-able. The GT team that showed up against UGA would give last year’s Clemson team a game, and our starting QB was out.

The problem with just using the stats and models like SP+ from the last three years is that we lost an extra game or two for reasons that have been beaten to death on this board

Louisville will be a good team, and there are other good teams on the schedule. They’re winnable games, though.

Looking at the schedule, I think 4 wins is the floor, and it would be terrible—either awful luck or a bunch of terrible things happening. I think 6 wins is reasonable, and 8 wins could happen if everything falls the right way. I could see a 5 win season where we lose by an eyelash each time. More than 8 wins and you’re watching an amazing turnaround—near miraculous.

Big question for me is the OL and the front 6 on defense, but I’m optimistic.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Barely better than a one-in-six chance of beating Louisville, and a one-in-four chance of beating Wake? And a one-in six chance of beating UNC, whom Tech has beaten four out of the last five times, including two in a row? I don't believe it. We could lose (or win) all three, but we've got better chances than those. Bet the over.

I don’t make the numbers, man. The method used to determine the win total is also used by the books when they set Regular Season Win totals, so I figured I’d share the insight.

It projected a win total of 4.27 in February and lo and behold the win total is set between 4-4.5.

For what it’s worth I’d bet o4 -115, knowing if we win 4 I’d push. Would not bet over 4.5.

 

[bobongo]

I don’t make the numbers, man. The method used to determine the win total is also used by the books when they set Regular Season Win totals, so I figured I’d share the insight.

It projected a win total of 4.27 in February and lo and behold the win total is set between 4-4.5.

For what it’s worth I’d bet o4 -115, knowing if we win 4 I’d push. Would not bet over 4.5.

I know you didn't make the numbers, but I don't think they give enough credit to our players and especially our current coaching staff, and I don't think they're accurate.
There's a lot of hangover in there from TFG's regime. Point spreads are based on public perception, and often lag behind reality.
Under Brent, Tech won two games last season as 20+ point underdogs. I expect more of the same this year. We'll see what happens.

 

[iceeater1969]

I posted this in a different thread back in February, but I think it is worth revisiting now that books are releasing season win totals-

I have been a profitable recreational sports bettor the past three years, using a quantitative methodology based heavily in analytics and advanced stats. One of my most important tools in betting the regular season win market (and weekly sides for that matter) has been Bill Connelly's SP+ projections, located behind a paywall on ESPN+ or here (for historical ratings, at least). I use a weighted combination of different ranking systems for my weekly side projections. Through statistical analysis I've found that SP+ are most predictive for Regular Season Win totals, however.

Generally speaking, SP+ rankings are intended to predictive and forward facing, reflecting opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Preseason SP+ projections are based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production - accounts for transfers and attrition. The combo of the previous year's SP+ and adjustments based on returning production make up almost half of the projection's formula.
2. Recent recruiting, including transfers - makes up for ~ 1/3 of the formula
3. Recent history - uses 2-4 years of info from previous seasons to account for overall program health. This is where any adjustments due to coaching changes are made. Makes up about 15% of the formula.

GT finished 2022 with an SP+ of -11.8. The good news is that with the returning production, transfers, coaching change, etc our preseason rating for '23 is -2.4. I was expecting our improvement to be around 7/8 points, so this was a pleasant surprise. I've linked the entire Preseason SP+ and Returning Production numbers here for your reference.

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread. I have found that the avg HFA for the past few years is around 1.8; you can get super granular and assign different HFA factors for different teams, but I won't do that here, and GT's factor would be lower than 1.8. Sigh.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Without any further adieu, here is our 2023 Opponent / Projected Point Spread / Implied Win %:

Louisville (neutral site) / +12.5 / 18.05%
SC State / -30 / 97.93%
@ Ole Miss / +21 / 6.83%
Bowling Green / -21.5 / 93.75%
UGA / +32.5 / 0.53%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
UNC / +13.5 / 16.72%
@ Miami / +13 / 17.39%
@ UVA / -.5 / 50%
BC / -2.5 / 54.13%
Syracuse / +3 / 42.37%
@ Wake / +8.5 / 25%

Projected Win Total of 4.27 wins. I would expect the betting market to open up between 4.5 and 5.5 Regular Season Wins for GT. I think our floor is 2 wins and our ceiling is 6 wins.

Like your long term method for betting as a business proposition

I think using last seasons info requires " bifurcation" - analysis before and after TFP left the situation. The last 2 games in the previous year, TFP lost 2 games by a total of 100 to 0. TFP was removed in mid year as team showed limited improvment inspire of great DL play.
After TFP, we saw great improvement.

Looking a second half and offseason changes. The replacment hc immediately changed practice methods and shook up the spirit of the team. The new HC put in a freshman ( like unc and duke) and we played damn good. Then in off season the HC got a solid new staff.
The returning coaching staff has to be WAY WAY BETTER than TFP.
My Gold glassss say .
U are off by 3 as the low end = we will win 5 for sure - just due to coaching.
On the upper end - if Thacker is a stud, we will win 8 and play tough in the 4 losses.
HOMECOMING- UNC w Hiesman candidate and out former top WR who portaled is the key game.
Could be program changing. Come on Thack Attack!
Like your thinking!

 

[UgaBlows]

If we beat UL and Wake i feel like we will go on to win 8

 

[rfjeff9]

Like your long term method for betting as a business proposition

I think using last seasons info requires " bifurcation" - analysis before and after TFP left the situation. The last 2 games in the previous year, TFP lost 2 games by a total of 100 to 0. TFP was removed in mid year as team showed limited improvment inspire of great DL play.
After TFP, we saw great improvement.

Looking a second half and offseason changes. The replacment hc immediately changed practice methods and shook up the spirit of the team. The new HC put in a freshman ( like unc and duke) and we played damn good. Then in off season the HC got a solid new staff.
The returning coaching staff has to be WAY WAY BETTER than TFP.
My Gold glassss say .
U are off by 3 as the low end = we will win 5 for sure - just due to coaching.
On the upper end - if Thacker is a stud, we will win 8 and play tough in the 4 losses.
HOMECOMING- UNC w Hiesman candidate and out former top WR who portaled is the key game.
Could be program changing. Come on Thack Attack!
Like your thinking!

I agree. I respect his analysis and if there had been no changes last year then the methodology would have this reasonablely expectable outcome but the change in success just by changing coaches points to a need to throw out any part of TFG records as unfortunately skewed to the bad.

I expect 6 or more wins. This is a completely different team that the past 3 years shouldn't be used in the formula, even if it is 15%.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Only GT fans can tell you coaching was the reason for ineptitude the past 3yrs yet give the same type of prediction of wins with perceived better coaching




UL and WF being favorites let alone double digit favorites with them losing their QBs is laughable

GT is 19-6 vs. UNC with even CGC blowing yet we’re constant getting penciled in as L vs. them

Different fans offering differing opinions. Not surprised by the disparity. We are a highly diverse-thinking crowd.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

We went 5-7 last season with a tougher than average strength of schedule. Last year was the best team since 2018, which isn’t saying much, but the second half of the season was much better than the first.

Key did a solid job last year. He could have done better, but he was dang good

Our coaching staff is better than last year. Our defensive coaching staff should be better than last year, although we lost one really good defensive coach and ST coordinator, but otherwise we edge stronger. Our offensive staff should be MUCH better.

Some of the issues we had last year were depth, inconsistency, and having to make mid-season changes. We have a deeper QB room, and I think the coordinators will call a game more in line with their abilities. We lost a good receiver to transfer, and another is out to injury, but I’d say it’s about the same talent level. Our RB depth is good, and I think they’ll be used more effectively. We should have a year of good OL and ST coaching.

I expect the defense to be at least as good as last season.

The schedule is really tough, but a well coached team can win 6 or 7 games against this schedule.

Clemson would be an upset, but they’re upset-able. The GT team that showed up against UGA would give last year’s Clemson team a game, and our starting QB was out.

The problem with just using the stats and models like SP+ from the last three years is that we lost an extra game or two for reasons that have been beaten to death on this board

Louisville will be a good team, and there are other good teams on the schedule. They’re winnable games, though.

Looking at the schedule, I think 4 wins is the floor, and it would be terrible—either awful luck or a bunch of terrible things happening. I think 6 wins is reasonable, and 8 wins could happen if everything falls the right way. I could see a 5 win season where we lose by an eyelash each time. More than 8 wins and you’re watching an amazing turnaround—near miraculous.

Big question for me is the OL and the front 6 on defense, but I’m optimistic.

The tale of the Jackets' 2023 season. It begins...and it ends with line play on both sides of the ball. We have a somewhat easier schedule. We have several opponents in various stages of disarray for one reason or another and we have a confident, and competent coaching staff. Block better, tackle better, and get turnovers its easy to say and hard to do.

 

[JacketFan137]

the exciting thing about key is we know we are very likely to be *in* every game. aside from uga and clemson (too much talent to overcome at this point) i think every game is gonna be winnable. stay healthy and get better every week and i don’t think it’s crazy to go 5-5 or 6-4 in the other 10 games

 

[iceeater1969]

the exciting thing about key is we know we are very likely to be *in* every game. aside from uga and clemson (too much talent to overcome at this point) i think every game is gonna be winnable. stay healthy and get better every week and i don’t think it’s crazy to go 5-5 or 6-4 in the other 10 games

Hope we get bettter so when we add ND and FSU they are not in the too much talent group..
Some how in nil we need to be more than bottom feeder.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Louisville and Wake are definitely key games on this schedule.

As @Root4GT pointed out, it is likely that LOU improved both their QB and HC positions in the offseason.

At Wake, Mitch Griffis impressed in spring practice. Even though he's listed as a RS Soph, he's somehow been in the program for 4 years already?!? Given Clawson's track record there is no reason to think they won't win between 6 and 9 games.

As for the betting markets, that number at DraftKings (o4 -115 / -115) did not last long. The market has moved to o4.5 +120 / -140, so some respected money came in on the over 4 number they posted. Swarm money I assume

 

[rfjeff9]

Louisville and Wake are definitely key games on this schedule.

As @Root4GT pointed out, it is likely that LOU improved both their QB and HC positions in the offseason.

At Wake, Mitch Griffis impressed in spring practice. Even though he's listed as a RS Soph, he's somehow been in the program for 4 years already?!? Given Clawson's track record there is no reason to think they won't win between 6 and 9 games.

As for the betting markets, that number at DraftKings (o4 -115 / -115) did not last long. The market has moved to o4.5 +120 / -140, so some respected money came in on the over 4 number they posted. Swarm money I assume

I figured the line would correct and move up pretty quickly due to an influx of people taking the over, but no idea where it may stop. I would expect still more movement, but you never know what will happen in the next few months to make people balk. An injury or two here or there and the line quickly makes more sense.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Louisville and Wake are definitely key games on this schedule.

As @Root4GT pointed out, it is likely that LOU improved both their QB and HC positions in the offseason.

At Wake, Mitch Griffis impressed in spring practice. Even though he's listed as a RS Soph, he's somehow been in the program for 4 years already?!? Given Clawson's track record there is no reason to think they won't win between 6 and 9 games.

As for the betting markets, that number at DraftKings (o4 -115 / -115) did not last long. The market has moved to o4.5 +120 / -140, so some respected money came in on the over 4 number they posted. Swarm money I assume

UVA, SC State, BC, Bowling Green are all likely wins. (Forgive me if I have already jinxed us. Tell you what, I will submit penance by watching the 1999 UVA game when we were riding high at #7 with a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback) We won 5 games last year with a somewhat more challenging schedule. I would think the OVER at 4.5 would be a lock barring injuries but you never know. The whole portal deal makes predicting upcoming seasons a lot harder for those of us that are not fanatics. To me, these transfers come and go but with a few exceptions don't seem to move the needle for us that much. It SEEMS to me that portal players at Tech have tended to be mild disappointments while those that leave are all over the map. The problem for me is that even though we have not lost a huge number of players from last year, the ones we lost will be hard to replace, especially on defense. We will see what comes out in the wash.

 

[alagold]

I never try to project the season (esp to start) without knowing what players are actually showing up for that first game and even later..We are a thin team and if some key players are out (hurt,transfer, flunk, etc) ,it will make a huge difference.

 

[McDooder]

Hard to say we do better than last year with precisely - nil - in the known studs department...but that still beats the published over/under. Watching Gibbs get drafted the other week reminded me of how completely absent on-field leadership/standout talent has been in the last few years on offense. Sims did what he could but always seemed in his own head instead of leading the hearts and minds of the other jolly good fellows on the flats out there with him. Give me a Leader on the field and I will believe in more Wins in our column.

 

[takethepoints]

Hard to say we do better than last year with precisely - nil - in the known studs department...but that still beats the published over/under. Watching Gibbs get drafted the other week reminded me of how completely absent on-field leadership/standout talent has been in the last few years on offense. Sims did what he could but always seemed in his own head instead of leading the hearts and minds of the other jolly good fellows on the flats out there with him. Give me a Leader on the field and I will believe in more Wins in our column.

I think this pinpoints the main problem Tech has: lack of a proven, experienced, winning QB.

I think the talent is there. Others here point out that we don't have any breakout studs on this team. That if true, but irrelevant. The overall talent is actually pretty good and the depth is adequate at most positions. But QB is a big question mark. It could be that we have someone in the room that can overcome the problems created by losing Nate and a so-so OL. It can be done.

But … we don't know if that QB will emerge. I have hopes and I think the main contenders might prove out. Until one of them does, however, I'd be hard pressed to come up with an argument that would move the folks in Vegas.

 

[Buzzbomb]

Not the finished product for the 2023 season, although the Undergraduate part of the football portal ends this coming Monday at midnight for entry.

Mailbag 5/11

What games can Georgia Tech steal this year under new HC Brent Key?

www.fromtherumbleseat.com

 

[jacket_fan]

But … we don't know if that QB will emerge. I have hopes and I think the main contenders might prove out. Until one of them does, however, I'd be hard pressed to come up with an argument that would move the folks in Vegas.

Agree on needing a QB to prove out. During the spring game the coaches let the three air it out and they threw pretty passes. Hopefully fall camp will identify a starter that is head an shoulders above the others.

The other factor is whether the defense can play well to start the season and get the early wins needed for a much needed 6 win season and a bowl game. There are big shoes to fill at LB and Dl with graduations.

A quality QB and a defense that only needs to rank statically in the middle of the ACC and this could be a 6 win season.

 

[MWBATL]

Only GT fans can tell you coaching was the reason for ineptitude the past 3yrs yet give the same type of prediction of wins with perceived better coaching




UL and WF being favorites let alone double digit favorites with them losing their QBs is laughable

GT is 19-6 vs. UNC with even CGC blowing yet we’re constant getting penciled in as L vs. them

I would pick Louisville over us. They apparently did extremely well in the portal and have the same energy a coaching change brings.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I would say the O/U should be 7.
Coaching and talent pool should be way better.