Season pulse check

[g0lftime]

I hope we can pick up 3 more wins in the ACC. With loss of Haywood for this year and no post season likely, it' time to start giving some time to Cole and Wright. We are a spoiler at this point. We lost too many games early in the season against some mediocre teams.

 

[awbuzz]

i meant : each 3 percent is worth 1 point toward the opening line. helluva engineer today (50-X)/3

Now it makes sense!

 

[YlJacket]

I don't have any expectation that we would be over 50% chance of a win at BC. My only question is the 29% chance. Looking at things like Sagarin we are close to each other (Sagarin we are 89, BC is 90) so understanding home court matters I still would expect a 60/40 kind of thing. Not the end of the world just surprised at how much they factor home court into these percentages.

I guess I need to look at how these things are calculated a lot more closely. ESPN has us with a 24% chance to win. Even worse than Team Rankings.

I can buy a -4 line which is what I see. Not sure how that relates to 25% chance to win or less. Got to look at how those things are calculated.

 

[g0lftime]

We are not deep enough to make a run in the ACC tournament and too many early losses to make the NIT unless we magically start shooting better. This has been a disappointing season to this point. I hope the guys haven't checked out and still are motivated to play hard.

 

[GT_EE78]

You don't have a clue what it takes to rebuild a dead program. Our last 2 HC's set our basketball program backj 10 years. Josh has a major rebuild and is making the right moves to bring us back for the long haul. Josh is bringing in players that will be 3-4 yr players and developing talent. Not relying on transfers to give us chance at the NIT. Developing team chemistry as well as coaching up current players. You may not like Josh for what ever reason, but only a blind ******* couldn't see we have a keeper for a coach and we are on the way back competing for conf titles and major runs in the ncaa. I like the UVA method we are following. u

You don't have a clue what it takes to rebuild a dead program. Our last 2 HC's set our basketball program backj 10 years. Josh has a major rebuild and is making the right moves to bring us back for the long haul. Josh is bringing in players that will be 3-4 yr players and developing talent. Not relying on transfers to give us chance at the NIT. Developing team chemistry as well as coaching up current players. You may not like Josh for what ever reason, but only a blind ******* couldn't see we have a keeper for a coach and we are on the way back competing for conf titles and major runs in the ncaa. I like the UVA method we are following. u

I do have a clue how one can re-kill a dead program, such as the BG method by recruiting 3star or less players. CJP has accomplished that for 9 of 10 recruits so far. That's why I'll wait another year or two before deciding whether or not I think he's a keeper.

 

[GT_EE78]

I don't have any expectation that we would be over 50% chance of a win at BC. My only question is the 29% chance. Looking at things like Sagarin we are close to each other (Sagarin we are 89, BC is 90) so understanding home court matters I still would expect a 60/40 kind of thing. Not the end of the world just surprised at how much they factor home court into these percentages.

i did a lot of statistical analysis abt 15/20 yrs ago and found Sagarins predictor to be best by far. Won a lot of NCAAT office pools and a few bets. 0 to 3 is a tossup .(add 3.2 for home) If you can find a game where there's a >3pt delta versus the line (and verify that no injury explains the delta) then you'd win 80% + . For the ncaat is become pretty useless as most games after round 2 will look like tossups. Its still better than Kenpom i think.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I do have a clue how one can re-kill a dead program, such as the BG method by recruiting 3star or less players. CJP has accomplished that for 9 of 10 recruits so far. That's why I'll wait another year or two before deciding whether or not I think he's a keeper.

That’s not really fair in my opinion. Jose Alvarado, Khaled Moore, Kristian Sjolund - these guys are all a nose hair from being 4*. For example, 247 starts 4* at 0.9000 and we literally have 0.89s including a 0.8997. And Michael Devoe is #49 in the country - not too far from 5*.

 

[AE 87]

I hope we can pick up 3 more wins in the ACC. With loss of Haywood for this year and no post season likely, it' time to start giving some time to Cole and Wright. We are a spoiler at this point. We lost too many games early in the season against some mediocre teams.

I disagree with playing younger guys more. I think it teaches them more how to lose than how to play. We need them hungry and angry next year.

 

[MiracleWhips]

Really have been disappointed with Wright's minutes this season. He went from being one of the teams best rebounding/per minute forwards to getting no minutes at all! I really just can't wrap my head around it. No offense but those guys really can't hold a candle to him. Wright's best game this season was 19 pts 7 rebounds off of 8/9 shooting off 27 minutes and he's getting no minutes now? Just wasting talent, which is something we can't afford to do.

 

[g0lftime]

Wright and Cole might as well get a couple of minutes each half and if get a good match up then extend it. They need some time under fire to help with their development and keep them focused at practice. This season is basically over. My biggest fear is that Okogie leaves after this year. This team still has some wins left in them. The BC loss really stung.

 

[up state jacket]

Really have been disappointed with Wright's minutes this season. He went from being one of the teams best rebounding/per minute forwards to getting no minutes at all! I really just can't wrap my head around it. No offense but those guys really can't hold a candle to him. Wright's best game this season was 19 pts 7 rebounds off of 8/9 shooting off 27 minutes and he's getting no minutes now? Just wasting talent, which is something we can't afford to do.

Are you at practice? Performance at practice dictates game minutes. Early in the year Josh played different line ups. Our competition is a little different now. Practice and yes I said practice is dictating game minutes. If you're not performing in practice the way coach wants, you don't see the floor. Evan and Moses both were projects coming into the season anyways.

 

[MiracleWhips]

Wright and Cole might as well get a couple of minutes each half and if get a good match up then extend it. They need some time under fire to help with their development and keep them focused at practice. This season is basically over. My biggest fear is that Okogie leaves after this year. This team still has some wins left in them. The BC loss really stung.

Is Okogie projected to go in the first round? If not I would say he stays at tech for one more year.

 

[MiracleWhips]

Are you at practice? Performance at practice dictates game minutes. Early in the year Josh played different line ups. Our competition is a little different now. Practice and yes I said practice is dictating game minutes. If you're not performing in practice the way coach wants, you don't see the floor. Evan and Moses both were projects coming into the season anyways.

I certainly hear you but at this point what either you or I say about practice at this point is pretty much speculation. All I can go off of at this point is the numbers which seem to favor Wright definitely should be getting minutes. To your point about different competition. Wright never had the opportunity to play in conference, seems like he completely got shut out as soon as ACC started. Can't say the guy isn't an ACC level player if he didn't even have the opportunity to show it, IMO

 

[GT_EE78]

Is Okogie projected to go in the first round? If not I would say he stays at tech for one more year.

Maybe even two if we're lucky. NBAdraft.net has him at 83 for 2018 and 45 for 2019.

 

[mstranahan]

I haven't seen any mock drafts that have Okogie in the first round. selfishly, that makes me happy since we should have him as a centerpiece of teh team for two more years

 

[AE 87]

Nobody on our team is playing this year like a future NBA player.