Milwaukee
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Lol. Meant season more so than team.
Season pulse check
- Thread starter Jmonty71
- Start date
OG-T
Jolly Good Fellow
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For our plans of an ambitious run, I think the calendar is really quite favorable. Our only 2-day turnaround is between our last two home games.
@BC — 4 days to rest/prepare after Cuse.
@L'ville — They're playing GT/Pitt back-to-back, maybe Cards will have a let-down on focus.
Duke — Will be their 3rd road game in a row.
@Wake — Winnable game.
VT — Let down for them? We're in the middle of their run vs. UVA/Duke/GT/Clemson/Lville/Duke again.
@UVA — This looks very unlikely.
@Clem — Littlejohn always tough.
NC St. — Winnable at home.
Wake — Sr night
Optimistic: 6-3
Realistic: 4-5
Pessimistic: 3-6
@BC — 4 days to rest/prepare after Cuse.
@L'ville — They're playing GT/Pitt back-to-back, maybe Cards will have a let-down on focus.
Duke — Will be their 3rd road game in a row.
@Wake — Winnable game.
VT — Let down for them? We're in the middle of their run vs. UVA/Duke/GT/Clemson/Lville/Duke again.
@UVA — This looks very unlikely.
@Clem — Littlejohn always tough.
NC St. — Winnable at home.
Wake — Sr night
Optimistic: 6-3
Realistic: 4-5
Pessimistic: 3-6
ramblinwreck1378
Ramblin' Wreck
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This next 4 game stretch is very important for us, especially if we want any chance at having a postseason birth. With 3 of the 4 games being on the road, we have a chance to really improve our ranking in the RPI. Add on top of that that two of those road games are winnable games and our home game is against a top 5 team, if we can finish this stretch 3-1 (a stretch I know), that would be a serious step toward establishing a legitimate postseason resume.
YlJacket
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I have eliminated post season from my thinking - hard but necessary step for a general optimist who needs some carrot like that.
All I want to see going forward is good solid basketball, improvements from the pieces that will be coming back - especially AD and Jose. Plus an introduction for Cole and Wright to the rigors of ACC play. I don't expect them to play well or long. For Lammers and Tadric I hope they play well simply to have a good taste in their mouth as they finish their last season.
Simple pleasures at this stage.
All I want to see going forward is good solid basketball, improvements from the pieces that will be coming back - especially AD and Jose. Plus an introduction for Cole and Wright to the rigors of ACC play. I don't expect them to play well or long. For Lammers and Tadric I hope they play well simply to have a good taste in their mouth as they finish their last season.
Simple pleasures at this stage.
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i didn't assume postseason going in. I assumed this team had maybe a 50/50 shot at any post-season going into the season, so if the team gets there that is great, if not, not really a big deal.
I've already seen enough this year to be optimistic looking forward.
This team is right about where I expected them to be before the season started - one likely to win 14-15 games.
This year was always more about looking forward than looking at this season.
Jose has been better than I expected. Curtis looked about what i expected until he got hurt. AD's growth has been a big positive. i didn't expect to see much this year out of Moses and Evan and that is largely what I got. That is likely to come when they are JR.
The only negative has Ogbonda not seeing the court.
I've already seen enough this year to be optimistic looking forward.
This team is right about where I expected them to be before the season started - one likely to win 14-15 games.
This year was always more about looking forward than looking at this season.
Jose has been better than I expected. Curtis looked about what i expected until he got hurt. AD's growth has been a big positive. i didn't expect to see much this year out of Moses and Evan and that is largely what I got. That is likely to come when they are JR.
The only negative has Ogbonda not seeing the court.
GTJason
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I wanted to look back and see how long it took us to get to 4 wins in the ACC in the past few seasons to evaluate this team:
17-18 - 9 ACC games; Finish: ?
16-17 - 8 ACC games; Finish: 8 Wins
15-16 - 13 ACC games; Finish: 8 Wins - Senior Laden mercenary team pulled it together a bit at the end of the season
14-15 - Didn't happen; Finish: 3 wins
13-14 - 12 ACC games; Finish: 6 wins
12-13 - 12 ACC games; Finish: 6 wins
11-12 - 16 ACC games; Finish 4 wins
10-11 - 15 ACC games; Finish 5 wins
It's definitely a positive trajectory in my mind. Further analysis wasn't going to reveal anything surprising. I understand there's no normalization for SOS in these numbers but I don't think anyone would say we benefited the past 2 years from a soft schedule. If anything it's gotten worse as the ACC has added better basketball schools in ND and Louisville. I'm not happy with mediocrity as a permanent thing, but our best seasons in the past few years we were mediocre. I'm okay with mediocre as long as program growth is happening and I think it is
17-18 - 9 ACC games; Finish: ?
16-17 - 8 ACC games; Finish: 8 Wins
15-16 - 13 ACC games; Finish: 8 Wins - Senior Laden mercenary team pulled it together a bit at the end of the season
14-15 - Didn't happen; Finish: 3 wins
13-14 - 12 ACC games; Finish: 6 wins
12-13 - 12 ACC games; Finish: 6 wins
11-12 - 16 ACC games; Finish 4 wins
10-11 - 15 ACC games; Finish 5 wins
It's definitely a positive trajectory in my mind. Further analysis wasn't going to reveal anything surprising. I understand there's no normalization for SOS in these numbers but I don't think anyone would say we benefited the past 2 years from a soft schedule. If anything it's gotten worse as the ACC has added better basketball schools in ND and Louisville. I'm not happy with mediocrity as a permanent thing, but our best seasons in the past few years we were mediocre. I'm okay with mediocre as long as program growth is happening and I think it is
GTFLETCH
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AWFUL... Feels like another CBG team this year!!
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FWIW,
Here are the winning % odds from Teamrankings for the rest of the season
@BC - 29.7%
@ L'ville - 11.7%
Duke - 10.8%
@Wake - 28.7%
VT - 38.9%
@UVA - 3.3%
@ Clem - 11.1%
NCSU - 55.0%
Wake - 58.7%
So from a statistical standpoint 2-3 more wins would be the expected scenario. Less than 2 would be the pessimistic scenario and anything 4 or more would be an optimistic scenario.
Here are the winning % odds from Teamrankings for the rest of the season
@BC - 29.7%
@ L'ville - 11.7%
Duke - 10.8%
@Wake - 28.7%
VT - 38.9%
@UVA - 3.3%
@ Clem - 11.1%
NCSU - 55.0%
Wake - 58.7%
So from a statistical standpoint 2-3 more wins would be the expected scenario. Less than 2 would be the pessimistic scenario and anything 4 or more would be an optimistic scenario.
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BC sounds about right given their yearly numbers. They are 11-2 at home including wins over FSU and Duke. That's going to help you with the odds.
This is a considerably better BC team than they had the last 2 seasons.
Also, keep in mind the models are going to take into account both how a team does at home and how its opponent does on the road.
GT currently has just 1 true road win - at Pitt, so it is not going to be seen as a team likely to pull off a win on the road regardless of who they play.
This is a considerably better BC team than they had the last 2 seasons.
Also, keep in mind the models are going to take into account both how a team does at home and how its opponent does on the road.
GT currently has just 1 true road win - at Pitt, so it is not going to be seen as a team likely to pull off a win on the road regardless of who they play.
BC has been tough in Chestnut Hill. They own Wins over Duke and FSU at home this year. They can shoot the **** out of the ball
mstranahan
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The first three make sense to me.
BC is much better at home. Believe 11-2 overall, 3-1 in ACC including Duke & FSU
Louisville is playing well in January. 6-3 since UK debacle, 4-0 at home
Duke is loaded. We could win, but would take a perfect storm kinda game
Not sure Wake should be favored over us
They are 2-9 since Dec 18. 2-4 at home
Agree with next three
VT is capable of good game and crap game. We have a good chance to win this if we play good D and execute on O
UVA will destroy us. No shot
Clemson is a very tough team to beat at home this year. Undefeated, with wins over SoCar, NC State, Louisville, UNC, Miami & Notre Dame
Last two are hard to call as they are a month out.
That said, I think NC State will ultimately be favored and the % will shift more in their favor. Having Markell back makes them better and Yurtseven is starting play like he was hyped
Wake is a train wreck, home or road, but particularly on the road in ACC. 0-5 and average margin is -15.3 over last three road games.
I think we will beat Wake at least once, possibly twice. We have legitimate shot to beat VPI. NC State and BC are winnable, but we will be underdogs. Clemson will be very tough to beat in Littlejohn. I don't see us beating Louisville, UVA or Duke.
Add it all up and I think we finish between 2-7 (disaster) and 5-4 (excellent) with most likely 3-6 or 4-5
BC is much better at home. Believe 11-2 overall, 3-1 in ACC including Duke & FSU
Louisville is playing well in January. 6-3 since UK debacle, 4-0 at home
Duke is loaded. We could win, but would take a perfect storm kinda game
Not sure Wake should be favored over us
They are 2-9 since Dec 18. 2-4 at home
Agree with next three
VT is capable of good game and crap game. We have a good chance to win this if we play good D and execute on O
UVA will destroy us. No shot
Clemson is a very tough team to beat at home this year. Undefeated, with wins over SoCar, NC State, Louisville, UNC, Miami & Notre Dame
Last two are hard to call as they are a month out.
That said, I think NC State will ultimately be favored and the % will shift more in their favor. Having Markell back makes them better and Yurtseven is starting play like he was hyped
Wake is a train wreck, home or road, but particularly on the road in ACC. 0-5 and average margin is -15.3 over last three road games.
I think we will beat Wake at least once, possibly twice. We have legitimate shot to beat VPI. NC State and BC are winnable, but we will be underdogs. Clemson will be very tough to beat in Littlejohn. I don't see us beating Louisville, UVA or Duke.
Add it all up and I think we finish between 2-7 (disaster) and 5-4 (excellent) with most likely 3-6 or 4-5
YlJacket
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I don't have any expectation that we would be over 50% chance of a win at BC. My only question is the 29% chance. Looking at things like Sagarin we are close to each other (Sagarin we are 89, BC is 90) so understanding home court matters I still would expect a 60/40 kind of thing. Not the end of the world just surprised at how much they factor home court into these percentages.
FightWinDrink
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well based on the post before yours we're in a better spot in this point of the season compared to every BG team but 1
up state jacket
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You don't have a clue what it takes to rebuild a dead program. Our last 2 HC's set our basketball program backj 10 years. Josh has a major rebuild and is making the right moves to bring us back for the long haul. Josh is bringing in players that will be 3-4 yr players and developing talent. Not relying on transfers to give us chance at the NIT. Developing team chemistry as well as coaching up current players. You may not like Josh for what ever reason, but only a blind ******* couldn't see we have a keeper for a coach and we are on the way back competing for conf titles and major runs in the ncaa. I like the UVA method we are following. u
GT_EE78
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Not that it should be used this way but if each percent is worth 3 points toward the opening line , then +7 at BC/Wake and +4 VT sound a bit too high but +13 versus Duke/Loui/Clemson and +16 @UVA all sound about right.
GT_EE78
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i meant : each 3 percent is worth 1 point toward the opening line. helluva engineer today (50-X)/3
lv20gt
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I don't think we have much of a chance against Duke or UVA. I think the rest we have a decent shot of winning any given game.
@BC is doable. They aren't a pushover but they also aren't world beaters. Even though we have lost most , I thought we have played fairly decent in our conference road games. Just overmatched and lost against a better team, but I'm not certain BC is better than us.
@UL is on the far end of likely. Good team on the road. I do think we have a game left where everyone seems to click and if we get that we could win.
@Wake I think we have a good shot at winning. Same argument as BC but wake is worse.
VT at home is a winnable game as we play much better at home.
@CU - basically see UL. They are very much a live by the 3 team, and while it's less likely at home we can certainly beat them if they have an off night shooting.
NCSU at home is comparable to VT.
Wake at home is the game we should win the most. We're the better team, playing at home.
I'll go with 4 more wins, defending home court plus beating either BC or wake on the road. The duke and UVA games are going to make it hard to get much of a streak going though unless we pull a real shocker.
@BC is doable. They aren't a pushover but they also aren't world beaters. Even though we have lost most , I thought we have played fairly decent in our conference road games. Just overmatched and lost against a better team, but I'm not certain BC is better than us.
@UL is on the far end of likely. Good team on the road. I do think we have a game left where everyone seems to click and if we get that we could win.
@Wake I think we have a good shot at winning. Same argument as BC but wake is worse.
VT at home is a winnable game as we play much better at home.
@CU - basically see UL. They are very much a live by the 3 team, and while it's less likely at home we can certainly beat them if they have an off night shooting.
NCSU at home is comparable to VT.
Wake at home is the game we should win the most. We're the better team, playing at home.
I'll go with 4 more wins, defending home court plus beating either BC or wake on the road. The duke and UVA games are going to make it hard to get much of a streak going though unless we pull a real shocker.