Remaining Season Prediction Thread

[Eli]

UGA Sagarin Predictor = 92.59
GT Sagarin Predictor = 76.43
Home Advantage = 3.52
Estimated point spread = 92.59+3.52-76.43 = 19.68

Ref. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

From a Phil Steele article, when the spread is between 17.5 and 24 points, the underdog wins 6.76% of the time. When the spread is between 14.5 and 17 points, the underdog wins 13.16% of the time. Setting the %chance at the midpoint of the point spread range, and interpolating, in a 19.68 point spread, the underdog would win about 8% of the time.

Ref. http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html

So how much money would you have won this season using theses calculations?

 

[Atomic Jacket]

So how much money would you have won this season using theses calculations?

You can't use calculations to beat Vegas, because the oddsmakers are doing the same calculations to set the odds. Even if you picked correctly for most games, your winnings would never make up for the losses in the few games you got wrong.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Also, these odds are developed without consideration to injury, incarceration or other player changes. These calculations assume that past team performance will be replicated. It isn't of course.

Also, betting on football involves a 10% or so vigorish which is a high frictional cost. So if you want to gamble, trade futures or options, much less frictional cost.

Atomic's number are derived from the Sagarin system. Check this link from "Atomic Football" for what "Atomic Football" estimates using a different but conceptually similar system. http://atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html {As of Sunday afternoon the Saturday Pitt game results hadn't been incorporated.}

 

[alaguy]

let me say--after seeing something yesterday I have NEVER seen college football in 60 yrs of watching--4 lost fumbles in one qtr- I think almost anything is possible
but it likely we will lose to uga and to clem if they get the FR QB back--then split with uva and ncst

 

[Eli]

let me say--after seeing something yesterday I have NEVER seen college football in 60 yrs of watching--4 lost fumbles in one qtr- I think almost anything is possible
but it likely we will lose to uga and to clem if they get the FR QB back--then split with uva and ncst

Clempson are not world beaters this year and we always play them well. I think we beat them.

 

[iceeater1969]

For clemson I am bring my wife to the game. She has 100% success at gt games. Though it was at only one game it was a win over # 4 Vt in 2009 - she loved that the students rushed the field and tore the goal posts. This year we will be near the entrance to see the RAmbling wreck. We now win out till UGA. That one could be tough unless they self destruct which is very doable. We swarm to finish strong.

 

[GT Man]

For clemson I am bring my wife to the game. She has 100% success at gt games. Though it was at only one game it was a win over # 4 Vt in 2009 - she loved that the students rushed the field and tore the goal posts. This year we will be near the entrance to see the RAmbling wreck. We now win out till UGA. That one could be tough unless they self destruct which is very doable. We swarm to finish strong.

My wife was at uga 2008 and clemson. 2011.

 

[GT Man]

let me say--after seeing something yesterday I have NEVER seen college football in 60 yrs of watching--4 lost fumbles in one qtr- I think almost anything is possible
but it likely we will lose to uga and to clem if they get the FR QB back--then split with uva and ncst

The mutts had gurley and murray last year and we had vad. Still took it into double OT. These rivalry games are impossible to predict. Personally, I don't think they can stop our offense. Probably another shootout like 08

 

[LargeFO]

The mutts had gurley and murray last year and we had vad. Still took it into double OT. These rivalry games are impossible to predict. Personally, I don't think they can stop our offense. Probably another shootout like 08

Well no Murray, but I see your point.

 

[GT Man]

Well no Murray, but I see your point.

I stand corrected. Anything can happen. If our defense plays with some fire like they did against Pitt, and goes after that ball... who knows?

 

[DTGT]

http://www.atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html

Atomic football updated. 3% chance of winning out.

UVA: 73.4%
NCState: 70.9%
Clempson: 33%
uGA: 17.3%

 

[GTFLETCH]

Wofford W
Tulane W
Ga Southern W
VPI W
Miami W
Duke L
UNC L
Pittsburgh W
Virginia W
NC State W
Clemson W
uga L

ACCCG L

Bowl Game (Russell Bowl) W

Final Rankings #22 with 10-4 record after Bowl season

 

[Mack]

Eight and four has been my pick all along.....figured we would beat Dook and lose to VT and maybe Miami..........we win at least two more NCS and VA.

 

[33jacket]

said in preseason 9 win talent, but a 7 or 8 win team due to depth. sticking to it. 8 wins is totally achievable.

 

[MWBATL]

I would be kinda disappointed with any record that includes a loss to UGa, to be honest. I would be thrilled with 8-4 or 7-5 if it included a win over Georgia, and disappointed with 9-3 and a Coastal title if it included a loss to UGa.

Yeah, I'm one of "those" guys!

 

[Northeast Stinger]

My wife was at uga 2008 and clemson. 2011.

Use her judiciously from here on out.