Remaining Season Prediction Thread

What will be Tech's record in the remaining 5 regular season games?

  • 0-5

    Votes: 1 2.4%
  • 1-4

    Votes: 4 9.8%
  • 2-3

    Votes: 13 31.7%
  • 3-2

    Votes: 16 39.0%
  • 4-1

    Votes: 5 12.2%
  • 5-0

    Votes: 2 4.9%

  • Total voters
    41
  • Poll closed .

Eli

Helluva Engineer
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UGA Sagarin Predictor = 92.59
GT Sagarin Predictor = 76.43
Home Advantage = 3.52
Estimated point spread = 92.59+3.52-76.43 = 19.68

Ref. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

From a Phil Steele article, when the spread is between 17.5 and 24 points, the underdog wins 6.76% of the time. When the spread is between 14.5 and 17 points, the underdog wins 13.16% of the time. Setting the %chance at the midpoint of the point spread range, and interpolating, in a 19.68 point spread, the underdog would win about 8% of the time.

Ref. http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html
So how much money would you have won this season using theses calculations?
 

Atomic Jacket

Banned
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238
So how much money would you have won this season using theses calculations?
You can't use calculations to beat Vegas, because the oddsmakers are doing the same calculations to set the odds. Even if you picked correctly for most games, your winnings would never make up for the losses in the few games you got wrong.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Featured Member
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Location
Williamsburg Virginia
Also, these odds are developed without consideration to injury, incarceration or other player changes. These calculations assume that past team performance will be replicated. It isn't of course.

Also, betting on football involves a 10% or so vigorish which is a high frictional cost. So if you want to gamble, trade futures or options, much less frictional cost.

Atomic's number are derived from the Sagarin system. Check this link from "Atomic Football" for what "Atomic Football" estimates using a different but conceptually similar system. http://atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html {As of Sunday afternoon the Saturday Pitt game results hadn't been incorporated.}
 

alaguy

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Messages
1,117
let me say--after seeing something yesterday I have NEVER seen college football in 60 yrs of watching--4 lost fumbles in one qtr- I think almost anything is possible
but it likely we will lose to uga and to clem if they get the FR QB back--then split with uva and ncst
 

Eli

Helluva Engineer
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1,608
let me say--after seeing something yesterday I have NEVER seen college football in 60 yrs of watching--4 lost fumbles in one qtr- I think almost anything is possible
but it likely we will lose to uga and to clem if they get the FR QB back--then split with uva and ncst
Clempson are not world beaters this year and we always play them well. I think we beat them.
 

iceeater1969

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For clemson I am bring my wife to the game. She has 100% success at gt games. Though it was at only one game it was a win over # 4 Vt in 2009 - she loved that the students rushed the field and tore the goal posts. This year we will be near the entrance to see the RAmbling wreck. We now win out till UGA. That one could be tough unless they self destruct which is very doable. We swarm to finish strong.
 

GT Man

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
898
For clemson I am bring my wife to the game. She has 100% success at gt games. Though it was at only one game it was a win over # 4 Vt in 2009 - she loved that the students rushed the field and tore the goal posts. This year we will be near the entrance to see the RAmbling wreck. We now win out till UGA. That one could be tough unless they self destruct which is very doable. We swarm to finish strong.
My wife was at uga 2008 and clemson. 2011. :)
 

GT Man

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
898
let me say--after seeing something yesterday I have NEVER seen college football in 60 yrs of watching--4 lost fumbles in one qtr- I think almost anything is possible
but it likely we will lose to uga and to clem if they get the FR QB back--then split with uva and ncst
The mutts had gurley and murray last year and we had vad. Still took it into double OT. These rivalry games are impossible to predict. Personally, I don't think they can stop our offense. Probably another shootout like 08 :)
 

LargeFO

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The mutts had gurley and murray last year and we had vad. Still took it into double OT. These rivalry games are impossible to predict. Personally, I don't think they can stop our offense. Probably another shootout like 08 :)

Well no Murray, but I see your point.
 

GTFLETCH

Banned
Messages
2,639
Wofford W
Tulane W
Ga Southern W
VPI W
Miami W
Duke L
UNC L
Pittsburgh W
Virginia W
NC State W
Clemson W
uga L

ACCCG L

Bowl Game (Russell Bowl) W

Final Rankings #22 with 10-4 record after Bowl season
 

Mack

Helluva Engineer
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Eight and four has been my pick all along.....figured we would beat Dook and lose to VT and maybe Miami..........we win at least two more NCS and VA.
 

MWBATL

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6,505
I would be kinda disappointed with any record that includes a loss to UGa, to be honest. I would be thrilled with 8-4 or 7-5 if it included a win over Georgia, and disappointed with 9-3 and a Coastal title if it included a loss to UGa.

Yeah, I'm one of "those" guys!
 
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