Remaining Season Prediction Thread

[DTGT]

http://www.atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html

Atomic Football projects GT finishing 7-5. As we are already at 5-2, this means that we are expected to go 2-3 in the final 5 games.

Please predict the final record and which games you think we win.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Back in August on the FTRS web site I made the following prediction, so I might as well stick with it:

Wofford W
Tulane W
Ga Southern W
VPI W
Miami W
Duke L
UNC L
Pittsburgh W
Virginia W
NC State W
Clemson L
uga L

For what it is worth I also predicted that the Miami game would be the most defensive type of game we would play in the season, that we would lose one game due to controversial calls by the ref and that we would lose 2 starters to season ending injury.

 

[jeffgt14]

Back in August on the FTRS web site I made the following prediction, so I might as well stick with it:

Wofford W
Tulane W
Ga Southern W
VPI W
Miami W
Duke L
UNC L
Pittsburgh W
Virginia W
NC State W
Clemson L
uga L

For what it is worth I also predicted that the Miami game would be the most defensive type of game we would play in the season, that we would lose one game due to controversial calls by the ref and that we would lose 2 starters to season ending injury.

It's your fault!

 

[Northeast Stinger]

It's your fault!

Now that you put it that way it gets worse. I predicted a last second defensive breakdown against uga leading to a one point Tech loss.

Now on the bright side, if Tech loses to Pittsburgh then my voodoo magic is ended and Tech is free to win any game they want to after that.

 

[RyanS12]

http://www.atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html

Atomic Football projects GT finishing 7-5. As we are already at 5-2, this means that we are expected to go 2-3 in the final 5 games.

Please predict the final record and which games you think we win.

The only good thing about this outcome would be me being able to drive an hour to Detroit to watch us play in the Quick Lane Bowl.

 

[Atomic Jacket]

I've tried to calculate some probabilities of winning each remaining game based on estimated future point spreads and historical data relating upset probabilities to point spreads. Here's what I have for the rest of the season:

% Chance of Georgia Tech Win:
38% at Pittsburgh
52% Virginia
56% at NC State
26% Clemson
6% at Georgia

 

[jeffgt14]

I've calculated our percent chances of our remaining games based on BS as well.

% Chance of Georgia Tech Win:
50% at Pittsburgh
50% Virginia
50% at NC State
50% Clemson
50% at Georgia

 

[worthco jacket]

http://www.atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html

Atomic Football projects GT finishing 7-5. As we are already at 5-2, this means that we are expected to go 2-3 in the final 5 games.

Please predict the final record and which games you think we win.

I predicted before the season that we would go either 7-5 or 8-4 because of the defense. I stand by those. This team can beat any team left including UGA and conversely lose to any team including NC State. The nature of the beast.

 

[Cheesehead Jacket]

Unfortunately , I think only 2 more wins this year : Virginia and NC State. Finish the year 7-5. Looking better next year with an improved D.

 

[Cheesehead Jacket]

I've tried to calculate some probabilities of winning each remaining game based on estimated future point spreads and historical data relating upset probabilities to point spreads. Here's what I have for the rest of the season:

% Chance of Georgia Tech Win:
38% at Pittsburgh
52% Virginia
56% at NC State
26% Clemson
6% at Georgia

Looks about right to me.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

I think we are a better team than all but Clem n UGA.....which ones we win?? Lets win em all mofos

 

[Sean311]

Pitt L
Virginia W
Nc State W
Clemson L
UGA L

 

[Atomic Jacket]

I've calculated our percent chances of our remaining games based on BS as well.

% Chance of Georgia Tech Win:
50% at Pittsburgh
50% Virginia
50% at NC State
50% Clemson
50% at Georgia

Vegas just loves people like you. Heheheh.

 

[CHE90]

Vegas just loves people like you. Heheheh.

Vegas probably hates guys like jeffgt14. He sees each game as 50% so he probably isn't going to bet. Meanwhile, they probably love a guy like you who thinks he has an advantage based on his BS algorithm.

 

[Atomic Jacket]

Vegas probably hates guys like jeffgt14. He sees each game as 50% so he probably isn't going to bet. Meanwhile, they probably love a guy like you who thinks he has an advantage based on his BS algorithm.

If you really saw every game as 50-50, then logic would tell you to bet on every underdog straight up, because if you got 50% correct, then on balance you'd win much more money than you'd lose.

 

[jeffgt14]

I probably shouldn't have used 50%. I was just putting random percentages up there for the hell of it.

 

[GT Man]

Pitt L
Virginia W
Nc State W
Clemson L
UGA L

might be a better team than Clemson too.

 

[Atomic Jacket]

Updated probabilities for winning our remaining games:

% Chance of Georgia Tech Win:
67% Virginia
65% at NC State
33% Clemson
8% at Georgia

 

[Eli]

Updated probabilities for winning our remaining games:

% Chance of Georgia Tech Win:
67% Virginia
65% at NC State
33% Clemson
8% at Georgia

Why 8 percent against Uga? I want to hear the logic behind your calculations.

 

[Atomic Jacket]

Why 8 percent against Uga? I want to hear the logic behind your calculations.

UGA Sagarin Predictor = 92.59
GT Sagarin Predictor = 76.43
Home Advantage = 3.52
Estimated point spread = 92.59+3.52-76.43 = 19.68

Ref. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

From a Phil Steele article, when the spread is between 17.5 and 24 points, the underdog wins 6.76% of the time. When the spread is between 14.5 and 17 points, the underdog wins 13.16% of the time. Setting the %chance at the midpoint of the point spread range, and interpolating, in a 19.68 point spread, the underdog would win about 8% of the time.

Ref. http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html