Recruiting analysis

[LibertyTurns]

I never said GT should have REGULAR top 20 classes. What I said was, it's not too much to expect a top 20 class every 4-5 years or so. If you look at the timeline of Ross through Gailey, even though the recruiting services don't go that far back, there is history there to suggest GT has been able to pull a top 20 class about every 4-5 years...until CPJ.

If you look at recruiting now, our defense is able to pull somewhere between 2-4 4star recruits a season (depending on the service you look at). Even with the offense hurting our recruiting on the offensive side of the ball, GT regularly ends up in the top 40-50 in recruiting rankings. Now, if the offensive side of the ball can match the 2-4 4 stars the defensive side pulls in, you're talking about a combined 4-8 4 stars a season. Which would put GT in the 25-40 range regularly. Once every 4-5 years, it's not unreasonable to think the offensive side AND defensive side of the ball can get 7-8 4 star recruits combined. That would put us in the top 20.

Like I said, we won't find out until CPJ is gone. If the next guy is a "triple option" guy, then we'll most likely have to wait longer. From what I've seen and read in different places, if Stansbury has to make a change, he will move towards a coach that will not run a "pure" option system like CPJ.

If you accept the premise that GT does not win at the level we all desire because we cannot recruit (and I believe there is a strong correlation) it narrows the solution sets. Fix this problem and we’ll start seeing results. It’s by far the fastest path to the level of competitiveness I’d like to see.

How we get there requires a strategy. I do not see evidence of a strategy from anyone of importance: Peterson, Stansbury, Johnson, Pastner. Hall is the only one that can recruit ever at a high level but even he’s rickety.

 

[WreckinGT]

I never said GT should have REGULAR top 20 classes. What I said was, it's not too much to expect a top 20 class every 4-5 years or so. If you look at the timeline of Ross through Gailey, even though the recruiting services don't go that far back, there is history there to suggest GT has been able to pull a top 20 class about every 4-5 years...until CPJ.

If you look at recruiting now, our defense is able to pull somewhere between 2-4 4star recruits a season (depending on the service you look at). Even with the offense hurting our recruiting on the offensive side of the ball, GT regularly ends up in the top 40-50 in recruiting rankings. Now, if the offensive side of the ball can match the 2-4 4 stars the defensive side pulls in, you're talking about a combined 4-8 4 stars a season. Which would put GT in the 25-40 range regularly. Once every 4-5 years, it's not unreasonable to think the offensive side AND defensive side of the ball can get 7-8 4 star recruits combined. That would put us in the top 20.

Like I said, we won't find out until CPJ is gone. If the next guy is a "triple option" guy, then we'll most likely have to wait longer. From what I've seen and read in different places, if Stansbury has to make a change, he will move towards a coach that will not run a "pure" option system like CPJ.

Not a single ACC team outside of Miami, Clemson, and FSU has had a top 20 class in the last 5 years. Call me a defeatist if you want but personally, I would be pretty happy with occasional top 30 classes with top 40 being fairly regular.

 

[MWBATL]

If you accept the premise that GT does not win at the level we all desire because we cannot recruit (and I believe there is a strong correlation) it narrows the solution sets. Fix this problem and we’ll start seeing results. It’s by far the fastest path to the level of competitiveness I’d like to see.

How we get there requires a strategy. I do not see evidence of a strategy from anyone of importance: Peterson, Stansbury, Johnson, Pastner. Hall is the only one that can recruit ever at a high level but even he’s rickety.

This sums up GT athletics in a nutshell. Only thing I would add is a personal opinion that only Peterson has the power to solve this, and that a coaching change seems extremely unlikely to solve it in any meaningful way.

 

[GTJake]

This sums up GT athletics in a nutshell. Only thing I would add is a personal opinion that only Peterson has the power to solve this, and that a coaching change seems extremely unlikely to solve it in any meaningful way.

Except if the coaching change brings a different offensive scheme ... IMO, it might not be the only reason, but the TO is not helping recruiting any.

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

Here are some steps I would take to try to "improve" the recruiting, and yes, I have added an item for CPJ.

1. Add some more majors (Hill working with BoR - longshot, since UGAG members are majority of BoR)
2. Eliminate survey of calculus from some of these majors (Hill would have to allow such a thing)
3. Adjust the offense to include some "cool" passing variations as part of our flex bone (All on CPJ - he could introduce these items without forewarning - problem will be that we probably don't have the arm talent or WR talent to make this real just yet)
4. Invest in serious recruiting nationwide for kids who want a STEM degree - will take $$ and resources

Again, I don't believe any of these will allow us to recruit like a factory, but even if we can get a few 4 star guys and upper 3 star guys, due to these changes, it would help.

 

[Animal02]

Here are some steps I would take to try to "improve" the recruiting, and yes, I have added an item for CPJ.

1. Add some more majors (Hill working with BoR - longshot, since UGAG members are majority of BoR)
2. Eliminate survey of calculus from some of these majors (Hill would have to allow such a thing)
3. Adjust the offense to include some "cool" passing variations as part of our flex bone (All on CPJ - he could introduce these items without forewarning - problem will be that we probably don't have the arm talent or WR talent to make this real just yet)
4. Invest in serious recruiting nationwide for kids who want a STEM degree - will take $$ and resources

Again, I don't believe any of these will allow us to recruit like a factory, but even if we can get a few 4 star guys and upper 3 star guys, due to these changes, it would help.

We have had passing in the past.....just need a QB with an arm

 

[LibertyTurns]

Except if the coaching change brings a different offensive scheme ... IMO, it might not be the only reason, but the TO is not helping recruiting any.

It’s why I keep harping on developing a strategy. We’ve had pro Style offenses before and it did little to alter the recruiting landscape. Joe Hamilton’s success did not usher in a wave of 4 or 5 star QBs or WRs or lineman or anything banging at our door to get in. No one element is likely to fix our problem and in the absence of a cohesive strategy we’re unlikely to get there.

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

We have had passing in the past.....just need a QB with an arm

I agree that is the first requirement, but our WR core right now would also need some improvement.

 

[Lavoisier]

We added more recruiting positions earlier this year. We have to evaluate the next class to see how much of an impact it has made. If we do a lot better with top recruits then I think we can say we have a good strategy moving forward with football (ie grow the recruiting department through smaller donations since the bigger boosters don't want to).

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

This has been one of the best data analysis (thanks OP) and threads I have read in a long time. Yet I came away with no further understanding of our record over the last 3-5 years than I did before. I throw my hat into the lack of player development/"bad luck" camp. I am not sure there is anything significantly different between Duke/VT/GT/Pitt in average recruiting rankings. However, I haven't seen anyone outside of Gotsis or perhaps Mason in this regime show much year over year improvement. Usually what you see in year 1 is what you see in year 4 with our players.

There is not all that much difference in talent among Virginia Tech, Duke, Tech, and Pitt. But I believe that Virginia Tech is at the top of that group. They just seem to have a hard time with the other "Tech" for some reason. Virginia Tech handily beat Duke who beat us and so it goes.

 

[Boaty1]

It’s why I keep harping on developing a strategy. We’ve had pro Style offenses before and it did little to alter the recruiting landscape. Joe Hamilton’s success did not usher in a wave of 4 or 5 star QBs or WRs or lineman or anything banging at our door to get in. No one element is likely to fix our problem and in the absence of a cohesive strategy we’re unlikely to get there.

We recruited well after Hamilton. 3 straight top 25 classes with a high of at least 12. I say this just to make sure the facts stay straight.

 

[alagold]

As far as recruiting --getting 3 VERY good guys (4 star) at KEY positions with a normal parade of 3 stars EVERY yr might be enough to go 8-4 normally. a VERY good QB and Kicker meant the difference in multiple games in the last few yrs.(and that was without a good defense.Having one strong DLineman and LB and DB would maybe nail it.
Reducing the attrition also becomes critical at times. (see '13)
This is about the best we can hope for normally.

 

[okiemon]

As far as recruiting --getting 3 VERY good guys (4 star) at KEY positions with a normal parade of 3 stars EVERY yr might be enough to go 8-4 normally. a VERY good QB and Kicker meant the difference in multiple games in the last few yrs.(and that was without a good defense.Having one strong DLineman and LB and DB would maybe nail it.
Reducing the attrition also becomes critical at times. (see '13)
This is about the best we can hope for normally.

I understand what you’re saying, but I never like to hear ‘that’s the best we can hope for.” Reminds me of Dave Braine.


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[alagold]

I understand what you’re saying, but I never like to hear ‘that’s the best we can hope for.” Reminds me of Dave Braine.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I also said NORMALLY. So what is the BEST record in the last say 20 yrs ?-that is out of the norm but true -- unfortunately..

 

[Lavoisier]

The last two classes have probably been the best two year stretch in the school's history since the modern recruiting rankings have existed. We'll have to see how this year's class finishes, but I definitely think we are on the upswing and if classes like that become the norm then we are going to be in good shape. Nobody becomes great overnight. The facilities upgrades, the new recruiting staff, more time for the defensive coaches to make connections with their highschools, and the Adidas uniform/branding might get us to the point we have 3-5 4stars every class automatically. Build on that and in a few years we might have something special on our hands. Personally I think we need to just maintain course and keep adding staff for recruiting.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

This sums up GT athletics in a nutshell. Only thing I would add is a personal opinion that only Peterson has the power to solve this, and that a coaching change seems extremely unlikely to solve it in any meaningful way.

Yep, Changing coaches is not going to get you top 20 recruiting classes. Sadly with out lack of money and large recruiting limitations due to having to take real classes, most coaches will pass. Sadly I fear the odds are stacked against us like never before with progress towards graduation. I put the odds at 66/33 that Tech will end up being far worse off with a new coach.

 

[stech81]

This sums up GT athletics in a nutshell. Only thing I would add is a personal opinion that only Peterson has the power to solve this, and that a coaching change seems extremely unlikely to solve it in any meaningful way.

I agree but I don't think Peterson gives a rats backend about football.

 

[jacketup]

I agree but I don't think Peterson gives a rats backend about football.

Which would not be a bad thing if he didn't control appointments to the athletic board. If people want to identify differences between UGa and GT with regard to athletics, that's a difference that is a huge factor. If I could change Tech athletics, that's where I would start.

 

[jacketup]

I put the odds at 66/33 that Tech will end up being far worse off with a new coach.

Not if our AD does his job. Then again, this athletic board could screw up the hire. They've done it before.

 

[LibertyTurns]

We recruited well after Hamilton. 3 straight top 25 classes with a high of at least 12. I say this just to make sure the facts stay straight.

OK I looked up what I could find because I was only back in the states for a part of the year at the turn of the century but really have no recollection of reading anything about GT having great recruiting classes:

2000 GT #19
2001 GT #51
2002 GT#53
2003 #38

Maybe someone has a different source. I couldn’t find anything from 1998 or 1999. Really doesn’t look to me like we got much of a lift from the glory years.