Realistic expectations for 2016?

[augustabuzz]

"We're going to Charlotte!"

 

[JacketFromUGA]

Realistic I think we can bank on 7 wins. I thought 2015 was going to be a tune up for a run in 2016.

I still believe 2016 will be better than 2015 but no longer a ACC champ playoff run year. The reason being most of the young guys on offense I was hoping to get reps for breaking out in 2016 didn't actually get that many reps this year at all so next year will be somewhat of a learning year again.

Right now I think bank on 7 but up to 10 wins.

 

[Scubapro]

I am still optimistic that we will make it to Charlotte.

There were many games we had a chance to win in the 4th quarter but did not due to playing a bunch of freshmen. Next year I think we win those close games.

Also, I have to believe a leader on the O-Line will emerge and help the line get the calls correct and their heads in the game.

As one poster stated that in 2014 we were lucky but in 2015 we were exceedingly unlucky.

With a few breaks I think we get to 9 wins.

 

[iceeater1969]

Have to have break out year by one DT, one DE, two DB on defense or the F eill get complaints like the 14 offense. the O will be better. If the defense sags, the offense improvement will not improve our record. With defense sag and average bounce of ball and fewer injuries = 6-6 ( thank goodness for mercer and fritz leaving Georgia southern).

As we get closer to next year perhaps we will have more hope that coach has fixed it. I want to believe we can do better.

 

[CobbTech]

I predict 7-5 with more frustration as JT continues his Reggie-like career trajectory.

Ummm really? Reggie never won the Orange bowl. Also, Reggie got better help around him each year he got older. Not the case with JT. Pretty ridiculous statement.

 

[InsideLB]

Its a helluva lot harder to climb up from 3-9 then it is to drop to 3-9.

Agree although it also depends. If you got to 3-9 getting blown out and not competing then IMO you've got a job to do to have a winning season.

For us we lost a lot of players to injury, played a lot of young guys, and repeatedly/almost flukily came up just short of winning several games. Or just made too many mistakes that sunk us. IMO a team like that can turn quickly.

As an aside, Army finished 2-10 and I was suprised Jeff Monken wasnt able to turn that program around. After watching Army-Navy though and learning how their season went my opinion changed. I wouldnt be suprised Army goes bowling next year.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Do you have any idea how painful this post is for people who care about precision?

Even if those predictions are based on accurate data at this point in time and that data is analyzed correctly leading to sound conclusions, the factors that drive actual probabilities will change dramatically before the start of next season. Teams that look good in December may suck the following October, just look at us for an example. Injuries and a wide variety of attrition happen to everybody and have a huge impact on probabilities yet we have no way to predict them. Complacency can infect any player or team anywhere and have a dramatic affect on probability. Staff changes can and will still occur throughout the league, as well. Individual player development is unpredictable as is team synergy. Just way too many unknowns at this point.

Making projections, even educated ones, right now might be a fun a exercise, but is meaningless in reality.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

My expectations for 2016 is a team and a staff that is united, dedicated, committed, works hard and smart, give 100% at all times, never gives up and represents us in way we can be proud of on and off the field. I expect all to be as demanding of themselves as they are of each other. I expect the coaches to be innovative and use their personnel resources to the utmost of their ability. I expect players to progress in their personal goals and to maximize their potentials and leaders to emerge. I expect this to be a process that is well under way.

I have no expectations for wins and losses.

 

[AE 87]

Even if those predictions are based on accurate data at this point in time and that data is analyzed correctly leading to sound conclusions, the factors that drive actual probabilities will change dramatically before the start of next season. Teams that look good in December may suck the following October, just look at us for an example. Injuries and a wide variety of attrition happen to everybody and have a huge impact on probabilities yet we have no way to predict them. Complacency can infect any player or team anywhere and have a dramatic affect on probability. Staff changes can and will still occur throughout the league, as well. Individual player development is unpredictable as is team synergy. Just way too many unknowns at this point.

Making projections, even educated ones, right now might be a fun a exercise, but is meaningless in reality.

This has nothing to do with my post.

Most posts on this forum are meaningless in reality.

 

[MtownJacket]

???? You calculated probabilities to 5 or 6 significant digits based on data of 1, didn't you?

That sounds accurate, to the extent that the inputs can be considered "data". But they were clearly artificial, and when a calculation is done numerically an input of 0.1 is assumed by the computer to be 0.100000000000000. Which is why pretending the inputs are in fractional increments of 1/10 makes sense.

I could do an error analysis by assuming an uncertainty of 0.1 and perturbing the inputs randomly in an "upper-lower bound" fashion for multiple runs to see how the results vary. But ain't nobody got time for that. I'm not designing an aircraft over here.

 

[AE 87]

That sounds accurate, to the extent that the inputs can be considered "data". But they were clearly artificial, and when a calculation is done numerically an input of 0.1 is assumed by the computer to be 0.100000000000000. Which is why pretending the inputs are in fractional increments of 1/10 makes sense.

I could do an error analysis by assuming an uncertainty of 0.1 and perturbing the inputs randomly in an "upper-lower bound" fashion for multiple runs to see how the results vary. But ain't nobody got time for that. I'm not designing an aircraft over here.

No worries. I know what you did and agree it's not a big deal. It's like using the wrong there/their/they're but math.

 

[Yoda]

10-11 wins

 

[dressedcheeseside]

This has nothing to do with my post.

Most posts on this forum are meaningless in reality.

My bad, I should have attached it to the post you were responding to.

 

[Techster]

I've said for the past few years that 2016 was setting up to be a BIG year for our program.

Senior QB with loads of talent.
Experience and depth on the line (Burden & Shamire return, Griffin is back from injury. Klock and Bryant played lots of minutes. Marshall also has experience. Will have younger guys fill in where needed).
Talented corp of ABs that got experience in 2015, with two VERY good ones in Cottrell and Green eligible next year.
Experience and depth at BB, with a some potentially VERY good BBs in the fold.
Experience group of WRs with an infusion of talent coming off redshirts and committed for the 2016 class

Solid to possibly very good DL, especially at DE.
A solid group at LB, with a special talent in Brant Mitchell
Safety will be inherited by the UBER talented AJ Gray.
CBs will be young, but they will be prototypical NFL size CBs (Wigley, Simmons) with others who have experience (Durham, Austin).

We could be a better team...but the Coastal landscape has changed since the end of this season. UVA hired Mendenhall, Miami hired Richt, VT hired Fuentes, Pitt with another year under Narduzzi (who beat us in his first try), UNC has gotten better but may take a step back without their QB, Duke has a 2 game win streak against us. There are no gimmes in the Coastal anymore.

We could be a much better team in 2016, but barely make a bowl.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

I think the staff and team will have a fire in their bellies next year. I think our offense gets back on track and defenses will hate facing us again. I think the D will be average but who knows...some vets could improve with development and younguns could surprise to take us to a a higher level on that side. I think special teams will be sound if we can get better production from the punt game.

I think 7-9 wins is most likely. 5 wins is probably our floor. Perfect is our ceiling. Way too early and slightly over optimistic prediction....9-3.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I think the staff and team will have a fire in their bellies next year.

I hope the fire is already there now. It better be.

 

[iceeater1969]

Haven't checked the thread in a while.

Seeing your recent posts made me realize, I have underappreciated the fire in the belly that losing all but one acc game has ignited in our coaches and players.

 

[Boomergump]

I am chuckling reading this thread. Look, I know we are fans and fans prognosticate, but if 2015 didn't teach us anything about the uselessness of season predictions, nothing will. The most important prediction, presently, has more to do with the quality of our off season. I just want to see us get better and re-gain some swagger. It doesn't matter matter what our record is next year. Heck, I predicted a Yellow Jacket victory every Thursday this last season, even as our record grew worse and worse. My current focus is on off-season conditioning and securing a good recruiting class. In a couple months I will start worrying about spring practice.

 

[awbuzz]

"We're going to Charlotte!"

Did Butker make a FG to end an unofficial practice.

 

[awbuzz]

Only realistic prognostication I can add is that we'll participate in 12 to 15 official football games next season.